YouGov-Forty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 32, Greens 12, One Nation 9

A largely unchanged result on voting intention for a poll that records a slight improvement in Pauline Hanson’s personal standing, and growing concern about North Korea.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 32%, the Coalition steady on 34%, the Greens up two to 12% and One Nation down one to 9%, with the combined result for all others steady on an ample 13%. The respondent-allocated two-party result shifts a point in Labor’s favour to reach 50-50, with the Greens both increasing their primary vote and recorded a somewhat stronger flow of preferences to Labor. The results remain peculiar for the high overall level of minor party and independent voting.

Also featured are a comprehensive seat of leadership ratings: Malcolm Turnbull on 44% approval (down one on six weeks ago) and 48% disapproval (up one); Bill Shorten on 43% (up one) and 46% (down one); Pauline Hanson on 42% (up three) and 50% (down two); Richard Di Natale on 26% (up one) and 39% (up one); Nick Xenophon on 52% (up two) and 28% (up three); Bob Katter on 36% (up three) and 41% (down two); Tony Abbott on 34% (steady) and 57% (up one); and Christopher Pyne on 32% (up one) and 44% (steady). Other findings are that 66% are worried about North Korea, up 12% on eight weeks ago, with 29% not worried, down 11%. Fully 43% would support military action in response to the missile test, with an equal number opposed. Sixty-four per cent would support banning the niqab, with 26% opposed; for the burqa, 67% support and 24% opposition; but for the hijab, 29% support and 61% opposition.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1032.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,400 comments on “YouGov-Forty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 32, Greens 12, One Nation 9”

  1. Christopher Pyne on 32% (up one)

    Leadership / Pyne 32% and improving! ‘Leading’ to what? Surprise!

    Other findings are that 66% are worried about North Korea, up 12% on eight weeks ago

    This not quite so surprising.

  2. Duttons’ “WAP” stopped in its tracks? Surely even Xenophon not going to do a deal on this.

    The Coalition’s own senators have labelled the proposed strengthening of English language requirements for new citizens as too tough.

    The legislation is destined to be voted down in the Senate, after key crossbench senator Nick Xenophon confirmed his team of three senators could not support the bill.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-05/senate-committee-says-citizenship-english-proposal-too-tough/8875926

  3. Canavan – “producing coal??”

    I guess if the Coalition provides enough ‘free’ money some one will buy and operate it.

    AGL slammed for ‘hypocrisy’ over plans to ditch coal amid Liddell station talks

    … Senator Canavan said people would be “lining up” to buy the power station.

    “If Andy Vesey wants to ease his moral guilt about producing coal, he’s welcomed to sell coal-fired power stations at book value — indeed I was talking to some investors tonight who would happily buy his whole coal-fired power fleet at book value,” he argued.

    Mr Turnbull said he would prefer Liddell remained owned by the private sector, but the ABC understands the Government’s options could include a multi-million-dollar taxpayer subsidy to update Liddell’s boilers and software.

  4. Existing coal fired power is actually a pretty decent economic investment in the current environment (the Coalition is doing everything but directly paying people to use coal right now) . Though I’d be looking for an opportunity to sell it , say 6 months before the next election , if the polls for the Coalition looked dire.

    (Well assuming I utterly lacked any morality at all and was going to buy into Coal)

  5. The warnings in Florida arrive not long after the state marked the 25th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew’s devastating landfall there, and as residents — like many others nationwide — have spent recent days glued to news reports documenting Harvey’s mammoth impact in Texas

    If Irma does make landfall as a Category 4 storm or stronger so close after Harvey’s impact on the Gulf Coast, it will be the first time on record that two storms of that strength hit the United States during the same hurricane season.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/05/florida-declares-state-of-emergency-as-hurricane-irma-intensifies-to-a-category-5-storm/?pushid=59aef085d4ac501c00000014&tid=notifi_push_breaking-news&utm_term=.417ab66706b7

    Shh! Don’t mention Cl….. Ch….!

    I would also consider it Divine retribution if Mar A Lago was devastated by Hurricane Irma.

  6. White House Admits Trump Is Holding Dreamers Hostage To Get Democrats To Pay For His Wall

    White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders admitted that Trump is holding DACA recipients hostage in a bid to get Democrats to pay for his wall.

    Sanders was asked if it was accurate to say that the White House position is that in order for the Dreamers to stay in the country, the wall must be funded.

    She answered, “I don’t think that the President’s been shy about the fact that he wants a wall, and certainly something he feels is an important part of a responsible immigration reform package.”

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/05/white-house-admits-trump-holding-dreamers-hostage-democrats-pay-wall.html

  7. REVEALED: White House officials hoped Trump would finally grasp DACA well enough not to kill it

    Administration officials remained hopeful until almost the last minute that President Donald Trump would gain enough understanding to back off his decision to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program.

    White House officials privately expressed concern up until an hour before the announcement that the president didn’t fully grasp the details he was about to set in motion, and they hoped he would change his mind after discovering their full impact, reported the New York Times.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/09/revealed-white-house-officials-hoped-trump-would-finally-grasp-daca-well-enough-not-to-kill-it/

  8. ‘Of course we have it!‘: Russian lawmaker pushes Putin to reveal the pee tape

    The leader of the far-right New Russia Movement, Nikita Isaev, wants to see his country’s leader “hit Donald Trump with our kompromat,” meaning the compromising material they have.

    In a conversation with Russia-24, Isaev seemed to indicate Russia possesses incriminating information on the American president that he would like to see go public, The Independent reported.

    When asked to verify if they have such material, Isaev exclaimed, “Of course, we have it!”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/09/of-course-we-have-it-russian-lawmaker-pushes-putin-to-reveal-the-pee-tape/

  9. Tony Abbott appears to have scored a regular opinion spot in the SmearStralian, where his tin jug ears peer out at us weekly.

    Today’s effort says what a declining shithole we live in. Anything to do with the last 4 years of Liberal rule? Perhaps, but it would be worse under Bill Shorten!

    “Consider the practical difficulties that Australians wrestle with every day: Power prices are now among the highest in the world, despite a super abundance of readily available energy.

    House prices in Sydney and Melbourne rival those in Hong Kong, even though no country has more available land than we do. On some measures, our kids’ academic rankings are worse than Kazakhstan’s even though we’ve nearly doubled school spending in the past decade.

    Our construction costs, telecommunications costs, and regulatory costs are among the highest in the world and we’re falling down the global rankings on competitiveness and ease of getting things done. Wages are stagnant while necessities such as food, water and rent cost more all the time. Yet every one of these problems would be worse if Shorten and a Labor government were back in charge.”

    Jump the paywall for more hypocritical tripe .

  10. Certainly the Liberal party considers itself above laws of economic mics and physics. They imagine they can interfere in the electricity market for pure ideology and prolonging the coal industry beyond its vaible life, and things will be fine.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/electricity-crisis-agl-boss-rebukes-turnbull-government-plan-to-keep-coal-power-stations-operating-for-longer-20170905-gybb2o.html

    The next time there is a power blackout, any time from now till 2022, there is only one party to blame. Snow job II will not save Turnbull. He is digging his own grave.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The now somewhat demented Dick Smith is launching an advertising campaign against ABC TV news and current affairs, which he says has warped the debate he has tried to spur over Australian population growth.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/dick-smith-to-campaign-against-alleged-abc-bias-20170905-gybejm.html
    Kevin Rudd puts the chance of a new Korean war at 20 to 25%. He examines the possible scenarios.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chances-of-second-korean-war-between-20-and-25-per-cent-20170903-gy9znq.html
    Every sign is that Donald Trump is being outmuscled and outfoxed by North Korea’s murderous dictator Kim Jong-un, who calls Trump’s bluffs, exploits the President’s follies to entrench his power and, unlike Trump, follows a ruthless, long-run strategy. The novice Trump is out of his depth says Paul Kelly. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/paul-kelly/novice-president-trump-out-of-his-depth-in-korean-crisis/news-story/55f4aec297a7ab8111cbe836f2431377
    Australia’s largest electricity generator has strongly dismissed a new push by the Turnbull government to make the country’s coal-fired power stations run for years longer than originally planned. Homework not done Malcolm?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/electricity-crisis-agl-boss-rebukes-turnbull-government-plan-to-keep-coal-power-stations-operating-for-longer-20170905-gybb2o.html
    AGL chief executive Andy Vesey has issued a stinging rebuke to Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott over the future of one of Australia’s oldest coal-fired power stations.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/09/05/agl-liddell-turnbull-abbott/
    Mark Kenny writes that Australia’s energy grid remains messy, ad hoc, stridently politicised, and subject to an uncertain outlook. The Turnbull government wants to address this, both for policy reasons, and for reasons more nakedly political.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/coal-fight-casts-a-pall-over-malcolm-turnbulls-clean-energy-reforms-20170905-gybbch.html
    Laura Tingle writes “The sharp end of the politics of the AEMO report released on Tuesday is that it brings the energy debate smack up into the face of real-time decisions that will have to be made by governments right now, in stark contrast to the longer term decisions about clean energy targets and other mechanisms which can so often have a sense of being out in the never never”. Google.
    /news/aemo-confirms-the-energy-crisis-is-now-not-in-the-never-never-20170905-gybfzn
    Nicholas Stuart says that we are stuck in our own Utopia with a lot of irrelevant hustle but no progress.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australia-is-stuck-in-its-own-utopia-a-lot-of-irrelevant-hustle-but-no-progress-20170905-gyb41e.html
    Michael Koziol says that Dutton’s controversial crackdown on Australian citizenship appears doomed, with the crucial Nick Xenophon Team declaring it won’t support the plan as it stands. He includes some punchy comments from the Law Council.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-duttons-australian-citizenship-crackdown-doomed-after-key-senators-pull-support-20170905-gyb1ls.html

  12. Section 2 . . .

    Britain will end the free movement of labour immediately after Brexit and introduce restrictions to deter all but highly-skilled EU workers under detailed proposals set out in a Home Office document leaked to the Guardian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/sep/05/leaked-document-reveals-uk-brexit-plan-to-deter-eu-immigrants
    Without commenting on it too much Peter Martin reports on the RBA’s outlook for the economy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-economy-is-picking-up-and-wages-are-about-to-climb-rba-governor-philip-lowe-20170905-gybgex.html
    Michael Pascoe does comment on the RBA’s outlook.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/rba-springing-into-spring-on-capex-and-infrastructure-20170905-gyazyv.html
    Ross Gittins tells us that the most arrogant people in Australia are business people and we’re sick of them. This is quite scathing article.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-most-arrogant-people-in-australia-are-business-people-and-were-sick-of-them-20170905-gyaxli.html
    Richard Ackland asks whether Dutton is a fit and proper person to wield such awesome new powers. Frightening actully.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/06/is-peter-dutton-a-fit-and-proper-person-to-wield-such-awesome-new-powers
    The SMH editorial headlines that there are too many heads in the trough and begins with “If federal politicians want to know why there is a degree of cynicism about their competency and sense of propriety, then the hypocrisy in cutting funds to programs while handing out well-remunerated “jobs for the boys/girls” provides a ready reckoner to political vanity and stupidity.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/too-many-heads-in-the-trough-20170905-gyb8rr.html
    Child care specialist Lisa Bryant writes that the “No” case says that Australia cares about kids but she asks if it really does.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-no-vote-says-australia-cares-about-kids-but-does-it-20170904-gya5xm.html
    Tony Wright has an early transcript of this morning’s Trump/Turnbull phone call.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/transcript-of-donald-trump-and-malcolm-turnbulls-upcoming-north-korea-phone-call-20170905-gyb8aa.html
    Labor’s support for same-sex marriage is being used against it in a homophobic pamphlet being circulated in Sydney during the final stages of local government elections in NSW. The flyers – distributed in the Georges River, Bayside, Canterbury-Bankstown and Strathfield council areas – have been referred to the NSW Electoral Commission for investigation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/homophobic-pamphlets-circulated-in-sydney-in-final-days-of-local-government-election-campaign-20170905-gyay17.html

  13. Section 3 . . .

    Anna Patty reports that lawyers fear some canny franchisors may still escape liability for the exploitation of vulnerable workers bill under new federal government legislation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/fears-some-franchisors-will-get-around-new-vulnerable-worker-laws-20170905-gyb4up.html
    Yesterday’s argumentation from the SSM survey High Court sitting.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/05/postal-survey-on-same-sex-marriage-unique-and-offensive-high-court-told
    So much for the expensive survey. Look at all these SA pollies who would vote on legislation based on their own positions regardless of the survey outcome. Google.
    /news/south-australia/almost-half-of-sa-federal-politicians-to-ignore-results-of-public-vote-on-samesex-marriage/news-story/6b1a6533d4237b26a20a32a2fe33c84b
    Paul Budde wonders if the Turnbull government can save the NBN failure.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/can-the-turnbull-government-save-the-nbnfail,10688
    Annastacia Palaszczuk’s minority government is in a winning position ahead of the looming Queensland election but may still rely on the preference flows of One Nation voters to cling to power. The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor has extended its lead over the Liberal National Party ahead of an election likely to be fought on a seat-by-seat basis in the regions and Brisbane’s ¬fringes. Google.
    /national-affairs/newspoll/one-nation-preference-flow-puts-queensland-labor-in-lead/news-story/98abc923682939630d244af287d03370
    “Fibbing” Liberal Felicity Wilson’s “typo” excuse is wearing a bit thin.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/fresh-complaint-and-flaws-in-typo-excuse-revive-pressure-on-felicity-wilson-20170905-gybd0e.html
    Now there’s a category 5 hurricane bearing down on Florida.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/extremely-dangerous-hurricane-irma-strengthens-to-category-5-storm-20170905-gyblgl.html
    What a bunch of cowboys were in charge of the NSW RSL!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/inquiry-reveals-explosive-evidence-of-rsls-charity-fundraising-failures-20170905-gyb7r3.html
    Like “alternative facts” and “political correctness”, “Alt-Left” is a myth perpetrated by the far right in need of a nemesis, writes John Maycock.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-alt-left-myth,10685
    Making a pregnant employee redundant has been found to be unlawful because it was done two days before she was due to start maternity leave.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/workplace-relations/energy-company-boc-rapped-for-making-pregnant-woman-redundant-two-days-before-maternity-leave-20170904-gya9pp.html

  14. Section 4 . . .

    Now Joyce has backtracked on relocating public servants to Darwin.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/public-servants-wont-be-moved-to-darwin-after-barnaby-joyce-comments-20170905-gyb1bo.html
    The Ibrahim brothers haven’t had a lot of good luck lately.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sam-ibrahim-to-be-sentenced-for-gun-supply-conspiracy-on-september-13-20170905-gyaxoz.html
    Former President Barack Obama said Tuesday that President Donald Trump’s decision to dismantle the program protecting young undocumented immigrants was “contrary to our spirit, and to common sense.”
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/09/05/obama-speaks-out-on-trump-ending-dreamer-protections_a_23197879/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    Amy Remeikis on Turnbull’s FM radio makeover.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-fm-radio-star-inside-the-pms-rejigged-radio-strategy-20170905-gybcqs.html

  15. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox hits the mark here.

    John Shakespeare and the performance of the Education Department.

    Simon Letch on the government cracking down further on welfare recipients. (UOME = You Owe Me).

    Andrew Dyson calls time on big business.

    Mark David has Turnbull demanding proof from Abbott.

    Broelman takes the Logies to Canberra.

    Ron Tandberg and tree felling.

    And Tandberg shows us the building of Trump’s wall.

    Jon Kudelka takes us to North Korea.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/e340640988d8c28fbc90bd37ff86976d
    Paul Zanetti contrasts leadership actions.

    Ron Tandberg looks at the adjective “acting”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Ouch! Mark Knight has a real dig at Turnbull here.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/06fa3a8440b73d2f95b1983e9475cbb5?width=1024

  16. Poroti
    Thanks, I had missed that one. The denial of reality is becoming palpable, as with the citizenship cases. It is one thing to hide a scandal or incompetence. It is another to deny events or physical realities that must come to light in the near future. SA and Vic could both have power blackouts next summer. The Liberals will wear the fallout.

  17. ‘SA and Vic could both have power blackouts next summer. The Liberals will wear the fallout.’.
    They should but the government will Blame Labor ®
    Labor will have to be ready.

    Also if the subsidies existing coal power stations to stay open and
    Labor announce new a renewable policy it will make for an interesting election.
    Requesting power plants to stay open longer is one thing, but paying to do so is something else.

  18. lizzie

    Scariest thing written about Dutton was a fairly recent ‘get to know’, puff piece about “Peter” and his wife “at home” . She commented that “for Peter everything is black and white” and there is “no changing his mind on things”. The last sort of person you would want dealing with complex issues. Perfect the local Gauleiter though.

  19. poroti

    I’d like to know the publication, but I’m reluctant to read it as he already scares me.
    Are all the Coalition such wishy-washy thinkers that they always give in to someone with a strong view? I’ve been on committees like that.

  20. Amazing watching the fawning right-wing media in this country tip-toeing around the fact that we have an energy crisis in this country because the Liberal Party shot energy policy in the head in 2009. Any other party would be decimated over something like that.

  21. Am going nuts!

    Cannot use this site with my iPad – touching links (this is all crikey not just pollbludger) just goes to open in a new page and all I get is the same page repeated.

    None of the pull down menus work anymore!!!!

  22. As John Reidy said, Labor (it’s all Labor’s fault) better have its energy platform well sorted for the campaign. I wonder if this will be the killer issue, and by de facto, climate change. It will by then, by when, have more voter clout than boat stopping and blokes in dresses. Load shedding isn’t a good look.

    Coorey’s summary of the mess ahead, and the option of keeping coal-fired power stations going while the “supertanker” (Finkel’s expression) of Australia’s power supply is turned around ~~

    AGL not interested in keeping Liddel (1000 megawatts for NSW and Vic) going past 2022
    Govt looking for ‘other’ reliable operators to take it over.

    AEMO makes two recommendations:
    * a strategic reserve be developed to prevent blackouts
    * an energy policy (there’s an idea)

    “it is scathing of the current state of energy policy and what it has done to deplete the provision of reliable baseload power. The market today does not provide sufficient incentive to owners of flexible and dispatchable resources to either increase their capability or invest in new resources,”

    “Given the short time available to bring new resources on line, the value of avoiding unnecessary investment in new power plants with uncertain long-term business viability, and the value of maintaining fuel diversity to manage price risk, consideration should also be given to the possible extension of the capability of some existing resources to support the energy transition under way.

    “This could take form of life-extension or investment to increase the flexibility of current dispatchable resources, and thereby improving their business viability and extending their life in the market.”

    Another option to keeping to Liddell open could be to extend and expand the strategic reserve to cover the shortage. The other is for the planned expansion of the Snowy-Hydro scheme to be online by 2023. That would generate an extra 2000 megawatts, twice that of Liddell.

    jump the paywall
    http://www.afr.com/news/pm-negotiates-with-agl-sale-of-power-station-to-avoid-closure-20170904-gyatjj#ixzz4rqOWx5LP

  23. Jen / ‘fess

    It seems that only Windows laptops / desktop computers can work reasonably well with the current Crikey state.

    And then requiring A Rs’ extension software to be acceptable.

  24. From Elk’s article in The Oz:

    ‘Labor’s primary support has slipped to 37 per cent — down slightly from the 37.5 per cent it secured at the 2015 election — but the LNP has slumped from its 2015 primary vote of 41.3 per cent to 34 per cent in the poll. LNP ­voters — and Queenslanders who backed minor parties such as the Palmer United Party in 2015 — are switching to One Nation, with Senator Hanson’s political force recording a 15 per cent primary vote.’

  25. A constant critic of the current rollout plan, Patton said the latest issue reinforced the need for a bipartisan rethink and an agreed strategy for a 21st century NBN.

    “The way we’re heading now, whoever is in office in 2020 will have to deal with our biggest ever national infrastructure debacle,” he said.

    “NBN Co will owe the government circa $19 billion and within 5 to 10 years it will need to fund a very expensive FttN replacement. So far no-one seems have even started working out how many billions this will cost.”

    https://www.itwire.com/telecoms-and-nbn/79753-nbn-co-s-hfc-cable-rollout-hits-a-speed-bump.html

  26. If hurricane Irma impacts Florida with anything like the strength and direction the current models are predicting, climate denying Governor Rick Scott will be in for some reality therapy. Miami has trouble keeping high tides out of the area even during calm days. A ten foot storm surge and twenty foot waves over parts of Florida will cause catastrophic damage.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/05/catastrophic-hurricane-irma-now-a-cat-5-is-on-a-collision-course-with-florida/?utm_term=.cf8a5ad7b7fa

  27. Steve777

    That’s the one. Looks like we are not the only ones to “Potato” him. Also from the article.

    It is an indication of his level of charisma that his nickname in the corridors of power is Mr Potato Head.

  28. It’ll be more than a little ironic if the party which sold all the power stations (for the wrong reasons) then buys them all back again (for the wrong reasons).

  29. Steve777 @ #34 Wednesday, September 6th, 2017 – 8:19 am

    Poroti @7:52AM: I think this is the Dutton puff piece. found by searching for ‘Peter Dutton puff piece’ in Google:

    http://www.smh.com.au/good-weekend/peter-dutton-im-just-not-impacted-by-that-hatred-20170516-gw5pt1.html

    The opening line “Immigration Minister Peter Dutton is a man of firm principles who doesn’t have room for self-doubt.” That’s one way of putting it, I suppose.

    That says it all. No doubt, no progress, morally or any other which way. Universe revolves around the Earth mindset. Be very very afraid of certainty, the bedrock of fundamentalism.

    Motto – In Defence of Doubt

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