Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Back to normal from Newspoll after a blowout in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago.

Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47 after a 54-46 blowout a fortnight ago, with primary votes at 37% for the Coalition (up two), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 8% for One Nation (down one). Both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten are on 34% approval and 54% disapproval, which means one-point drops in both for Turnbull, and no change for Shorten. Oddly, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has blow out to 46-29, from 43-33. Paywalled report from The Australian here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

631 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. a
    And it is not just Sudmalis. If SHE is guilty then Turnbull is HIDING her from the law! So HE is guilty as well. They have questions to answer!

  2. Less than stellar response from Ann:

    Ann Sudmalis @Ann_SudmalisMP
    ·
    14m
    As per my previous statement, I’m not and have never been a UK citizen.

  4. BW

    They have questions to answer!

    ________________________________________

    Just don’t expect any answers if the questions are asked in QT!

  5. @Question

    On this issue? If u want to be selective sure!

    Just the other day he blamed Labor for spending money and telling them this is how u not to be successful.

  6. stilgherrian: For bonus points, cut off a bit of the front page, staple it over your private address, photocopy, and re-fax. pic.twitter.com/64QtsVw8Xp

  10. I don’t get it. If Nash and Shorten are/were citizens by descent, although born in Australia, why isn’t Sudmalis? Because it is descent through her mother? The question to be answered is whether she is a citizen by descent, not whether she has ever formally been on the UK books as a citizen. The passenger card from 1966 was always a red herring and has no bearing on the factual question of whether she acquired citizenship of the UK by descent and therefore needed to formally renounce it (like Bill Shorten).

  11. zoid,

    It would not surprise me if, within the circles Mathias moves in, he has not felt secure about his background. Hence he isn’t an idiot on the subject.

  12. Yonhap News Agency @YonhapNews
    ·
    39m
    (URGENT) S. Korea detects indications of N. Korea’s ballistic missile launch preparations.

  13. Were I KIJ, I would keep right on developing both missiles and something that goes bang in the nose cones thereof.

    But I might be a bit more circumspect about all the sabre rattling.

    My reason would be something like: look what happened to Gaddafy and Saddam when they got rid of THEIR WMDs on a promise from the West.

    Might as well go out with a bang rather than a whimper…?

  17. srpeatling: PMO says document shows Ms Sudmalis was never a citizen as opposed to confirmation of renunciation. Says date is irrelevant.

  20. TPOF

    They were probably ready the last time NK sent a missile over Japan but the counter measures did not work.

    Anti missile missiles are nowhere near 100% effective.

  23. Not that I really care that much, but does that Sudmalis form address the actual issue? If the question is whether she is entitled to citizenship, what is the relevant of showing that she hasn’t specifically acquired it?

    I thought the question was whether she had renounced her entitlement.

  24. guytaur

    srpeatling: PMO says document shows Ms Sudmalis was never a citizen as opposed to confirmation of renunciation. Says date is irrelevant.
    _________________________________________________

    The document specifically says “According to UKV&I records dating from October 1986 there is no trace of the above named person having acquired British citizenship.”

    Note the word ‘acquired’. This document does not address the question of whether she was always a British citizen (from birth) by descent. It may be a poor choice of words by the person who signed the document – or it may answer a wrong question deliberately asked.

  25. Boy have they been played;


    I want to address comments made by the prime minister and the member for Warringah and other members of the government, suggesting that I might secretly be a UK national – a dual national, like his ministers.

    …

  26. LNP cutting more wages:
    Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
    ·
    47s
    .@BOConnorMP says government would like to look at agreement or award provisions when Sunday penalty rates are removed. #pmagenda on ch 601.

  27. So, Shorten’s dad was English, and he had to renounce. But Sudmalis’ mother was English, but she doesn’t have to renounce. She just presents a bit of paper which says there are no documents after October 1986 to show she is a British citizen. But there wouldn’t be any documents, would there, when she obtained citizenship by descent.
    Oh, Malcolm, what have you done!

  29. Also, Cormann’s concession “we all need to stop attacking one another” was pretty bold. Like the limbless Black Knight offering “OK, let’s call it a draw”.

  31. TPOF – it does, because at the time of Sudmalis’ birth, you couldn’t acquire UK citizenship form your mother, but you did through your father. The only link to the UK for her is via her mother. The 1986 Act meant you could acquire citizenship from your mother, but it was not retrospective and you had to take positive steps to acquire the citizenship. The fact Sudmalis has not attempted to acquire citizenship since that Act came into force gets her into the clear.

  32. StephenMcDonell: Full house for the #China Foreign Ministry press briefing about to start. Plenty of interest in Beijing’s response to #NorthKorea nuke tests pic.twitter.com/Hnlng9hIxK

  34. Government just lost in the Senate

    sallymcmanus: Thank you @Nick_Xenophon for standing up for workers and stopping the Government taking away the right to silence for 11 million workers

  35. There seems to be some ambiguity, perhaps deliberate, about ‘deploy’.

    It might just mean putting some anti missile equipment nearer to NK.

    Or it might mean actually firing off missiles.

  36. Boerwar

    TPOF

    They were probably ready the last time NK sent a missile over Japan but the counter measures did not work.

    Anti missile missiles are nowhere near 100% effective.
    ____________________________________________

    I expect they were ready. I think the Japanese said something to that effect. The hydrogen test changes everything. At this stage the North Koreans look like they are following the Hitler playbook of seeing how far they can push a west that does not have a taste for military one-upmanship any more. I can see the Japanese not responding at the time for fear of ratcheting up the heat, but anything now could be seen as demanding a military response, albeit not one that threatens the regime.

    Unlike Hitler, or even Stalin, the North Koreans are obsessed only with protecting their regime, not spreading their ideology beyond their borders. A limited military response that does not actually imply an invasion or attack on NK territory could be effective in actually drawing the line. There would be no serious military response from them in such a case as such an action (such as bombing Seoul) will guarantee the end of the regime (as well as create a total nightmare for the Chinese).

  37. Q
    Cormann knew from day one that he had to be squeaky clean on dotting his citizenship ‘i’s. Inter alia, this probably meant that he has had a close personal acquaintance with the wriggly nature of the relevant cans of vibble vobble vurms.

  38. Burgey

    TPOF – it does, because at the time of Sudmalis’ birth, you couldn’t acquire UK citizenship form your mother, but you did through your father. The only link to the UK for her is via her mother. The 1986 Act meant you could acquire citizenship from your mother, but it was not retrospective and you had to take positive steps to acquire the citizenship. The fact Sudmalis has not attempted to acquire citizenship since that Act came into force gets her into the clear.
    ___________________________________________

    Good. I thought that might be the case (or something roughly like it). It would have been helpful for her own side, as well as us innocent bystanders, if she had explained this.

  40. Question, to be fair if you had an accent like Mathias you’d probably avoid attacking people for having foreign citizenship links!

  41. TPOF
    All very logical. But all wars are started for all sorts of very logical reasons. Some don’t get it that the end rarely justifies the means. Most war starters go the extra yard. They don’t get it that the end rarely has much real world relationship with the logic of the beginning.

  46. Bob’s Uncle

    Question, to be fair if you had an accent like Mathias you’d probably avoid attacking people for having foreign citizenship links!
    _____________________________________

    Unusually for a Coalition minister Cormann is not an idiot. I can’t stand his politics but he knows how to make deals in the Senate and to not piss off his fellow Senators gratuitously.

  47. Mathias has got half a brain, so he knew that opening the citizenship can of worms where you are the government on a slender majority (and therefore have the most to lose) was totally nuts. But Malcolm doesn’t see it like that. He’s just a thug trying to make it through the day without being stabbed to death.

  48. @SkyNewsAust
    ·
    46s
    .@leonidpetrov: the North Korean military is ‘mobilised’ and ready to strike outside the Korean peninsula. MORE:

  50. Dr Pansy of the No campaign advert is claiming physical intimidation.

    Of course this is wrong and should not happen and is criminal.

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