Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull records an eight-point deterioration in his net approval rating, as Labor’s lead on voting intention widens still further.

Newspoll breaks out of its 53-47 straitjacket to record a 54-46 lead for Labor, from primary vote of Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 38% (up two), Greens 9% (down two) and One Nation 9% (up one). Leadership ratings also record substantial change for the first time a while, with Malcolm Turnbull down three on approval to 35% and up five on disapproval to 55%, and Bill Shorten down two to 34% and up three to 54%. Malcolm Turnbull leads 43-33 as preferred prime minister, down from 46-31 last time. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1675 from Thursday to Sunday. The Australian’s paywalled report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

920 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 9 of 19
1 … 8 9 10 … 19

  1. Hello
    I’m back to Poll Bludger after a sabbatical and am trying to get to grips with the new layout. Is there a way to jump to a point time when the comments thread gets long, eg say I want to catch up on the dawn patrol or see what went down at question time? I’ve gotta say I miss the pages buttons.

  3. poroti,

    One of these days I will have to visit Bolt’s site for the giggles. I delight in comments from the L-NP base.

  5. Bob’s Uncle,

    The answer to your question is that the CPG, as a whole, are undeniably biased. Abbott ran the magic pudding argument of “lower tax, no cuts to spending, and fix the deficit”. And how would he achieve this childish fantasy? “By being grown-up”. The inherent contradiction was swallowed whole. Also, when Abbott was a disruptive clown the CPG awarded him with the title of “Best opposition leader ever”. When Shorten provides a different policy approach he’s greeted with “Australians are sick of partisan politics”.

    I do think the CPG are turning, but Shorten is not getting the soft ride Abbott was given, and probably never will.

  6. MrWolf @ #403 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 1:49 pm

    Hello
    I’m back to Poll Bludger after a sabbatical and am trying to get to grips with the new layout. Is there a way to jump to a point time when the comments thread gets long, eg say I want to catch up on the dawn patrol or see what went down at question time? I’ve gotta say I miss the pages buttons.

    The good points are the emojis work and you can display pictures.

    If you are on a desktop computer or notebook, install the C+ add-on to your Firefox or Chrome browser to overcome some of the numerous deficiencies.

  9. bemused
    There is no such thing as paranoia. Your worst fears can come true at any moment.
    – Hunter S. Thompson

    Now I’m paranoid and fearful : )

  10. bemused @ #398 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 1:44 pm

    Yabba88 @ #375 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 12:59 pm

    bemused — Your lack of self awareness is truly amusing. You are a posting caricature of yourself. Your reactions are so reflexive and transparent. Its like watching a 3 year old. Both funny and ridiculous.

    I find your unintended humour most amusing.
    On a par with Jen’s fiction. 😆

    Experiment completed. Hypothesis confirmed. Chortle. Just like a 3 year old! You emulate Julie Asbestos Mesothelioma. A figure of not so harmless fun.

  12. Bob’s Uncle

    Shorten has ’empowered’ his shadow ministers. He’s standing next to them nodding when they get to talk about their ‘bit’.

    And he doesn’t send them out to run things up the flag pole and then say we have not ever had that intention … like Turnbull has with ‘his’ troops like Fydenberg.

    It’s a good way of showing as the ‘ring master’ that you have a team with depth wherein the focus of shadow ministers on their agreed part is acknowledged and trusted.

    He’s not really ‘my’ sort of person in many ways either but I think I’d feel trusted to do my bit. And that’s a good start.

  13. Hey, to the person who changed the font size on the comments that have “read more”. Can you make the font in the comment input box bigger and make it black? It get’s very squinty when I’m on my tablet, and I’m already fighting predictive text and a device that has been dropped a few too many times.

  15. Hey, to the person who changed the font size on the comments that have “read more”. Can you make the font in the comment input box bigger and make it black? It get’s very squinty when I’m on my tablet, and I’m already fighting predictive text and a device that has been dropped a few too many times.
    _______________
    Better still retain the original formatting. As it is it just begs to be ignored during perusal of posts.

  16. CTar,

    Yep, and I think his ability at managing a team is precisely because he has the self-awareness to know he is not slick and charismatic. It actually makes him a better leader.

  18. If you thought the sacrament of marriage was nonsense, you’d be right. As Pulitzer winner Garyy Willis writes.

    In the 1930s, my parents had a civil marriage, but my Catholic mother did not think she was truly married if not by a priest. My non-Catholic father went along with a church wedding (but in the sacristy, not the sanctuary) by promising to raise his children as Catholic. My mother thought she had received the sacrament, but had she? Since mutual consent is the essence of marriage, one would think that the sacrament would have to be bestowed on both partners; but my non-Catholic father could not receive the sacrament. Later, when my father left and married another, my mother was told she could not remarry because she was still married to my father in the “true marriage.” When he returned to my mother, and became a Catholic, a priest performed again the sacramental marriage. Since my father’s intervening marriage was “outside the church,” it did not count.
    …

    The myth of the sacrament should not let people deprive gays of the right to natural marriage, whether blessed by Yahweh or not. They surely do not need—since no one does—the blessing of Saint Thomas.

    http://johnmenadue.com/the-myth-about-marriage/

  19. Agreed BK.

    To the person having fun with the style sheet, please make all the user comment text the same size (larger) and black, including the input area.

  20. bemused

    But for one person to engage in it successfully, they need to have power over the other(s).

    I haven’t tried, successfully or not, but I’d call continuing ‘niggle’ bullying.

  21. Question – I don’t even feel that “bias” has much to do with it in a traditional sense. More that the CPG are obsessed with personality politics (even as they decry it). Abbott was great fun as he could always be counted on to say something outrageous. Turnbull was already a celebrity when he took over. On the other hand, Gillard specifically refused to stroke the correct egos (Grattan et al) and give the necessary scoops and background briefings.

    I think that a lot of it is just laziness and not having ability to look beyond the “shifty back-room operator” cliche that has served them well for Shorten until now.

  23. If Turnbull were a bollard, he’d be a pop down bollard ,at the first sign of trouble , whoosh, back down his hole.

  24. Grattan on Feb 15 2015 re Newspoll:
    “Labor has a massive 57-43% lead in two-party terms, with the Coalition’s primary vote on 35%, down three points since the last poll and ten points below the 2013 election level. Bill Shorten has a huge 48-30% advantage over Abbott as better prime minister.

    More than two-thirds of voters (a record 68%, up ten points) are dissatisfied with Abbott; only 24% (down nine points) are satisfied.

    And, as the MPs prepare to fill in their ballots to decide whether the leadership should be opened, they know what the voters think. Asked to choose between Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull, 64% opt for Turnbull, and only 25% for Abbott.

    The Australian, reporting the poll, notes that the two-party result is the worst for the Coalition since the last days of Turnbull’s opposition leadership.”

  25. Brandis is in the news again, arguing with Tony Abbott about ME.

    Any safe LNP lower house QLD seats being vacated soon?

    Just sayin’

  26. It can also be said, and has been said, that there weren’t many in the electorate that were enamoured of ‘Little Johnny Howard’, when he beat Paul Keating in a landslide in 1996. However, given the opportunity by the electorate to be Prime Minister he grew into the job and became one of the nation’s most loved and respected (I know, I know), PMs.

    I believe Bill Shorten will fall into this category.

  32. If you think loving adults should be able to marry, vote yes.

    If you don’t think the church should dictate how society should be run, vote yes.

    If you think Tony Abbott is a tool, vote yes.

  33. Question @ #435 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 2:51 pm

    C@t,
    I have never had a problem with Shorten and think his underestimated style will surprise on the upside.

    Me too. As he has always been polite, warm and good-humoured when I have met him, or seen him in a public setting, I can’t quite understand where people are getting their negative impressions of him?

  34. The most hilarious meme running through the comments in The Australian today was that there are sizable numbers of them thinking of voting Informal next election! : )

    Please do, guys!

  35. My first sighting of Shorten was during the mine disaster … and he earned my respect there.

    He’s not a sensationalist, and in this era of personality politics, that is refreshing.

    Understated power beats shirt fronting anytime.

  36. BK @ #200 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:33 am

    grimace
    20 years ago I was asked to address a 700 strong CPA conference. My opening line was, “You people have got a lot to answer for”. This was followed by 70 minutes of examples of lousy performance measures that usually wne back to an ignorant use of cost accounting.

    I agree with you there BK.

    I’ll reinforce what the article stated about lazy management and performance metrics, I’ve spent 15 years in corporate/industry and there are a huge number of senior managers who have got lazy of easy money and do not put the effort into properly understanding the financial metrics that we put before them.

    I’ve been directed so many times to “…just give me a number” by a person who has no intention of taking the time to understand the context behind that number, a context which is enormously important. When/if I invariably push the issue I’ll often get told i’m over complicating things, or it needs to be simplified, or that I just need to stop arguing, or the manager knows what they are doing.

    Now when things invariably go wrong I have a few variants on a fairly standard conversation/argument:
    Grimace: “this is your detailed report”
    …discussion ensues usually followed by the lapse of a period of time passes…
    Manager: “you said XYZ was the case!!!”
    Grimace: “no my report/presentation went into a detailed analysis of the numbers I gave you and their appropriate context, YOU asserted XYZ was the case without taking the time to understand the appropriate context of XYZ, you also told me you were tired of me arguing with you, so when you asserted that XYZ was the case, I didn’t argue with you.”
    Manager: !@#$#$%^%^&*

    During this coming month end I’m going to have such a discussion with a general manager who ignored what I said to him and overcooked his margin last month – and he’s going to have to take the hit this month.

  38. C@tmomma @ #207 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:42 am

    Under a bill introduced by Assistant Health Minister David Gillespie, industry would be allowed to self-assess whether a chemical new to Australia was low-risk and therefore “exempt”, meaning it could be brought to market without being reported to the regulator or having its safety assessed.

    And David Gillespie is a medical practitioner! Though I imagine he was one of those who got high marks in his HSC and decided to ‘do’ Medicine as a way to make money, as opposed to caring about people’s health. Which likely explains his getting out of it and into politics and property investment.

    In other words, the guy is a shonk.

    Doesn’t Gillespie have a s.44 problem?

  41. bemused

    So you feel bullied and oppressed?

    No. It is simply a comment on what you think is required for something to be considered ‘bullying’.

    Don’t be sad, you know, lighten up …

  43. grimace,
    Doesn’t Gillespie have a s.44 problem?

    Yes. Exactly as identified correctly in it’s context by Jack Waterford:

    One could hardly expect that Johnnies-come-lately such as the Pauline Hanson One Nation group, or even the Greens, would have the background or experience to understand that Section 44 of the constitution has been wreaking havoc in Australian politics for decades. The general nature of all of the problems it has created have long been well known to the professionals. A Country Party senator, James Webster should have been pinged in 1975 (and would have been had not Sir Garfield Barwick arrogated the High Court matter to himself alone) over family contracts with the post office.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/punters-laughing-but-not-listening-to-turnbull-government-20170818-gxz7wj.html

    The precedent was there for Gillespie to learn from. He didn’t even bother to get out the notes it seems.

  44. CTar1 @ #443 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 3:20 pm

    bemused

    So you feel bullied and oppressed?

    No. It is simply a comment on what you think is required for something to be considered ‘bullying’.

    Don’t be sad, you know, lighten up …

    As opposed to me copping all kinds of abuse that I won’t bother repeating.

    I usually use those when someone has grossly over-reacted to an innocent comment.

  45. jenauthor (Block)

    My first sighting of Shorten was during the mine disaster … and he earned my respect there.

    Same here. Then he used the opportunity when given a ‘poor man’s ministry’ to develop the Disabled program.

  46. Shorten responded to that silly poster saying he was sorry that LGBTI kids are being subjected to this rubbish, a yes vote will silence it.

  47. I love how that poster claims 92% of children of same-sex parents are abused, but only 51% are depressed. If these figures are to be believed (I know, I know), they should do further study on this population to figure out what makes them so resilient that only slightly more than half of them get depressed after being ‘abused’.

  48. markjs,
    Google is your friend.

    Rev. D. Paul Sullins Ph.D. | CUA
    communications.catholic.edu/experts/Experts/Sullins-D.%20Paul/index.html
    Jun 7, 2017 – Father Sullins is a married Catholic priest. He was formerly an Episcopal priest. He has been married for 30 years and has 3 children.

    Sounds like dude has some identity issues of his own! : )

    I would also assume that his ‘research’ comes out of his studies at Catholic University, where he got his Masters in Divinity and his PhD. He’s a Member of the Catholic Society of Social Scientists.

    Biased much?

    There’s more about the shonk here:

    https://www.google.com.au/search?q=Who+is+D.Paul+Sullins&rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBAU744AU744&oq=Who+is+D.Paul+Sullins&aqs=chrome..69i57.10517j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 9 of 19
1 … 8 9 10 … 19