Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research records support for a postal survey on same-sex marriage dissolving on contact with reality, while voting intention remains unchanged.

The Guardian reports that Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 54-46, with the Coalition (37%), Labor (39%), the Greens (9%) and One Nation (8%) all unchanged on the primary vote. The poll also records 39% approval of the postal ballot on same-sex marriage with 47% opposed, just one week after the same question elicited respective results of 43% and 38%.

The survey also found that 33% considered the top marginal tax rate of 47% too high, compared with 12% for too low and 39% for about right. A suite of questions on the Turnbull government’s handling of various policy areas recorded negative results for “the implementation of the national broadband network, schools and universities funding, addressing climate change, funding health and hospitals, implementing a fair tax system and ensuring reliable and affordable energy”, with the only positive result apparently being for “protecting Australians from terrorism”. Only 15% reported satisfaction with the government’s policies and progress in implementing them, with a further 28% reckoning only that it hadn’t made enough progress, and 41% expressing disapproval for its policies and decisions.

Other questions related to respondents’ financial situations, with 53% reporting that their income had fallen behind the rising cost of living, 25% saying it had remained even, and only 15% saying it had improved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,292 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  4. Greensborough Growler @ #2198 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 9:30 pm

    Ides of March @ #2194 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 9:26 pm

    GG

    I found an Alan Partridge….

    The game never ends when your whole life depends on the turn of a friendly card!

    Cheers.

    That’s Parsons not Partridge! (I shouldn’t know these things but I do.)

    I’ve thought I might rededicate it to Turnbull one of these days. “The game never ends when your whole world depends on the turn of a friendly poll.”

  7. Bemused
    Someone in my extended family had such a dreadful experience trying to get a bed for a mental health episode, she took out top level private health insurance just so she could check herself into a private clinic whenever she needed it.

    Luckily she had a well-paid job and the ability to manage her medical needs, and good support in friends and family.

    Without that, she would probably not be alive today.

  8. GG
    ”

    If adelaide win the Premiership, then jay is safe.”
    Not if there is a statewide power failure during the Grand Final telecast.

  9. Kevin Bonham @ #2204 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 9:36 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2198 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 9:30 pm

    Ides of March @ #2194 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 9:26 pm

    GG

    I found an Alan Partridge….

    The game never ends when your whole life depends on the turn of a friendly card!

    Cheers.

    That’s Parsons not Partridge! (I shouldn’t know these things but I do.)

    I’ve thought I might rededicate it to Turnbull one of these days. “The game never ends when your whole world depends on the turn of a friendly poll.”

    I knew that.

    And, fill your boots!

    Go well.

  14. Seems to me this 44 issue is one that could have occurred anytime in the past 10 years. The person who outed Ludlum has managed to cause a domino effect that nobody could have predicted.

    It shows that the Nats do not have a rigorous vetting system. It also shows that technology has allowed ordinary people to research MPs backgrounds where they could previously have kept it secret and fixed it without a fuss.

    Shame this all didn’t happen wile Abbott was PM – I reckon he’d have lost it completely.

  16. cupidstunt

    Every week Turnbull must be thinking.What is the fuckup going to be this week?
    **********************************************************************
    I think he is deluded enough to think he is doing quite well…

  18. Ides of March @ #2209 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 9:42 pm

    Kevin Bonham

    Has their ever been a case where an disqualifed senate candidate had no one else left on their ticket?

    No it’s never happened yet.

    In Tasmanian state elections, which have a similar replacement process but we use it for all vacancies not just disqualifications, there’s a special system for this. If a party runs out of candidates it can request a one-seat by-election and try to win it.

  19. Jen

    This is getting bloody ridiculous though. Im enclined to agree with Bernardi on this and proroguing parliament and referring all in doubt to the HC

  21. [cupidstunt
    Every week Turnbull must be thinking.What is the fuckup going to be this week?    ]

    I question whether using the singular form is appropriate in this context.

  24. You know, just a week or so ago we were all busy laughing at the “revolving door” in the Trump White House. Imagine how much Trump is now laughing at Brian Trumble’s travails!

  27. Wayne Carey says the Swans will ‘crush’ Adelaide tomorrow night. After watching their 100 point thrashing of Fremantle last week, I would not be surprised.

    Which leads me to proroguing Parliament, or otherwise getting the Governor General involved. This is almost as stupid as Pauline Hanson wearing a burqa, or Julie Bishop beating up on the Kiwis.

    Malcolm Turnbull,is the PM, he has the confidence of the House.

  28. Brandis today was probably the one bit of good news for the week and no one from his own side seems to have acknowledged it.

  32. Ides of March @ #2222 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 9:53 pm

    KB

    In the Tasmanina lower house?

    A one seat byeletion in a MMP electorate?

    That sounds bonkers.

    Yes, in the Lower House.

    It’s never actually happened so far; it is just there in case a party ever runs out of candidates and wants to use it. Most likely this would happen to a major party and they would probably prefer trying their chances at winning a one-seat by-election than handing over a seat to someone else, especially as it would be hard to predict who the someone else might be and they could even be the other major party.

    The risks have increased since the reduction to 25 seats meaning that quite often a party will win 3/5 and have only two spares to last four years. A party could run more than five candidates at the election but then they risk losing votes to exhaust.

  36. Latest election betting on SportsBet

    2019
    21:00 Next Election – Sworn in Government Markets (1)

    Labor 1.55
    Coalition 2.40
    Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 21.00
    Australian Conservatives 101.00

  47. Reminder to Tony Abbott: only 24 more days until usurper and leftie Turnbull equals your term in office, including 4 Parliament sitting days. You need to get going pretty quickly.

  48. This morning Massola wrote that Morrison had enough senate support to increase the Medicare levy for all taxpayers (as per the budget).

    No further news so another fizzer?

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