BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

A solid move to Labor in this week’s reading of the poll aggregate, although its concentration in Victoria means it makes no difference to the seat projection.

New results this week from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov cause the BludgerTrack two-party reading to bounce back in favour for Labor, who did particularly well this week out of Essential. There was also a new set of Queensland numbers from Galaxy, which, together with the similar poll last week from Western Australia, means the model has fairly robust data to work off at present from each of the four largest states. Last week I warned against reading too much into a slump in the Greens’ national vote and a swing to the Coalition in Victoria, and that’s borne out on both fronts this week: the Greens are the big mover on the primary vote, such that Labor’s two-party gain comes largely in the form of preferences from them, and the pendulum now leans back the other way in Victoria, albeit that it’s still Labor’s weakest state in swing terms.

Despite the Labor surge, there’s no change on the seat projection, which is down to the fact that the Coalition did relatively well out of the Galaxy result from the crucial state of Queensland. This results in them picking up a seat there against the overall trend, cancelling out the solitary gain Labor made from its big two-party improvement in the strategic wasteland of Victoria. The Coalition are also up a seat in Western Australia and down one in New South Wales.

Newspoll and Essential both provided new sets of leadership numbers, which have yielded some slight change in what has been a remarkably static picture since the wake of last year’s election. The change is that both leaders have recorded an uptick on net approval, although Malcolm Turnbull has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

716 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. ajm – you may very well be right – the criticisms of Shorten’s speech patterns made by some here e.g. ‘wif’ ans opposed to ‘with’ – probably appeals to working class and regional voters in NSW.

    Don’t forget, Labor won Dobell and Paterson against most expectations (on the ground was a different story in Dobell) – both were seats that Shorten spent considerable time in. I’m not saying that winning them was solely Shorten’s effort – both seats had excellent and well-matched candidates, both seats despise Turnbull, and the ALP spend a sh*tload of money and volunteer hours in them. But either way, Shorten is a stellar campaigner, and is improving all the time. And furthermore, he is showing great moral leadership, and his political instinct has been spot-on thus far.

    I genuinely think Shorten is shaping up as one of the best-performing Labor leaders in memory.

  2. Voice Endeavour @ #248 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 1:16 pm

    @ P1

    Just remember that if turnout was 0% amongst people aged 54 or below, and was 100% amongst over 55s, and all those over 55s who were undecided voted no, ME would still pass if you voted for it.

    In the 55+ age group, 50% support and 39% oppose the move.

    I would still boycott.

  3. Grumps @12:37, that was my thinking also.
    Suppose a big boycott gets up, large enough to be clear, as KB said,it is apparent it is a boycott and not apathy.

    What then? The right doesn’t really believe in democracy. Every extension of the franchise was resisted by them.

    However it may sound partisan but they have no shame.

    If successful, blocking SSM with a low turnout resulting in No, they won’t get any ‘message ‘. They won’t change their behaviour.

    They will see it as a victory a tactical win, and when it suits them try it again.

  4. CTar1
    Porter making an announcement in Ardmidale a bit more ‘pork’ for Barbaby’s electorate.

    Barnaby standing behind him looking very tired … “I’m working endlessly for pork for my electorate”

    Oi!

    That’s our pork you are denigrating! Hands off!

  5. The Liberals always seem to cry poor “oh, Labor have so much money because unions.”

    ‘unaccounted for’ seems to really like the Liberals.

    Liberal Party Labor Party
    Electoral Commission $12,217.00 $12,217.00
    MPs $128,256.78* $266,339.64
    Corporate/personal donors $366,664 $76,052.40
    Unions $0 $372,077.80
    Unaccounted for $1,396,011.52 $242,380.30
    Biggest Donor $210,000 from Ian and Pam Wall $238,295.07 from Shop Assistants Union
    Total receipts $1,903,149.30 $969,067.14

    South Australian donations
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-11/sa-liberal-labor-donations-ahead-of-march-2018-election/8792446

  6. [Player One
    Barney in Go Dau @ #246 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 1:16 pm

    I think that’s quite a clear attempt to moving the goalposts.

    You have no shame!

    What on earth are you on about now?]

    You advocate abstaining which would only have the effect of reducing the “yes” vote.

    And then you say that anything less than an absolute majority would invalidate a positive “yes” vote.

    And I quote;

    You need at least 70% of people to vote to get to 50% of the electorate saying ‘yes’. Anything less than this and the government would be able to say there is no convincing mandate one way or the other. Which of course they would.

    You have no clothes and you have no shame!

  7. John Reidy @ #255 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 1:23 pm

    What then? The right doesn’t really believe in democracy. Every extension of the franchise was resisted by them.

    This is what gets me – we all sit here and sagely agree that the right will not be bound by a democratic vote … yet we also apparently think a seriously flawed opinion poll is going to cause them to crumble on one of their heartland issues.

    Am I the only one that sees a flaw in this reasoning?

  8. TPOF @ #232 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 1:01 pm

    P1

    The best possible outcome is that the HC puts a stop to this nonsense. The next best outcome would be a successful boycott.

    ———————————————-

    Which pretty much summarises my position – except that I will not take part in a boycott unless there are good prospects for it to be ‘successful’.

    A ‘successful’ boycott would be one where the ALP, Greens, and every major gay advocacy group agreed to actively discourage participation.

    The ALP (after consultation with gay advocacy groups) has killed the idea of a successful boycott. It can’t happen now, so we have two choices.
    1) do what the loons want and stay out
    2) do what the loons most fear and win bigly.

    Doing what the grubs that set this sham up in the first place least want seems to me to be a no brainer, no matter how disgraceful the entire thing is. If I’m going to feel dirty anyway I want to make sure the bastards that put us in this position feel stupid, lonely and utterly repudiated.

  9. victoria @ #241 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 1:11 pm

    GG

    did you see my post from earlier today re the front page of the Herald Sun? Was wondering if you had seen it. Something about a Vic State Labor MP.

    Headline was wtte

    He’s a Syrian Liar.

    Do you know anything about it?

    Might be to do with the MP who was refused entry to the USA when on a Parliamentary Tour the other day. haven’t followed the news today.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/barred-from-the-us-victorian-mp-khalil-eideh-visited-syria-more-times-than-he-admitted-20170810-gxtxja.html

  10. No I don’t expect the right to crumble at all,I just can’t see what practical effect a boycott would achieve.

    If successful it won’t change their behaviour, they don’t see the process as flawed now and certainly won’t if they ‘win’.

    Possibly, just possibly they might if they lose and lose big(ly).

  11. Barney in Go Dau @ #261 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 1:29 pm

    You have no clothes and you have no shame!

    And you apparently have no comprehension. You think it is all about winning the vote. I think there is a significant chance the ‘yes’ campaign will not win the vote even just due to natural apathy, let lone if there is a strong ‘no’ campaign, and that it is therefore better to boycott such a flawed process altogether.

  12. Thanks for that analysis Ratsak. Your post brought out something else different. Shorten’s speech on the MPI was the first time he has ever really, really gone for Turnbull’s jugular. It was really personal in a way he has never been before, despite the vile put-downs by Turnbull almost every question time going back into the past.

    The gloves are off.

  13. Ratsak
    Many are lamenting where that has brought us (whilst studiously ignoring their role of course) and are crying out ‘where is our saviour?’.

    As others have said, excellent post Ratsak!

    However you are far too generous to the MSM. I hold them responsible for much of the last six years. They refused to hold Abbott to account for contradictory statements and lies, were sucked in by Turnbull’s act, and defended both way beyond credibility.

    This is the part that truly shits me – the media criticises our current political climate, blames the politicians, but refuses to accept that they are the ones that have essentially created that political climate. by giving credibility to the spivs, the neoliberals, the racists, the deniers. Furthermore, they print outright lies, all in the name of “balance”.

    They steadfastly refuse to engage in policy analysis because they’re lazy as f*ck, instead outsourcing it to those with an agenda such as the IPA and the Business Council – whose views just so happen to coincide with the elite media’s own greedy, well-paid views. They blame the political parties for engaging in politics – and then turn around and start inflaming internal ructions, and treating any slightly varying comment as though it was an outbreak of leadership instability.

    They write their own greedy views as though they are fact – views that the vast majority of people just don’t agree with. And then they wonder why their readership is declining.

    I for one can’t wait for Fairfax and News Ltd to go bust. The only ones I feel sorry for are the bystanders (the juniors, the staff writers etc) in those companies.

    Crooks, hypocrites and liars. The lot of them.

  14. John Reidy @ #265 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 1:34 pm

    If successful it won’t change their behaviour, they don’t see the process as flawed now and certainly won’t if they ‘win’.

    This would be absolutely the worst possible outcome, because they would then be emboldened to try the same process on other issues. I don’t believe we should risk it. This is not how our democracy is supposed to work.

    I think too many people are blinded by the fact that this process is being tried on gay marriage. If any government tried to pull this stunt on any other issue they would be rightly reviled, and it would rightly fail. Too many people are letting their hopes get in the way of their common sense.

  15. I assure you I will redouble my efforts to leave not a jot of doubt as to the limitless depths of contempt I hold our media in.

    Had you listened to Sabra Lane’s interview with Shorten on AM this morning, your contempt would only deepen.

    Bill did good though, battling on at once stage through Liberal talking points that were almost being shouted at him!

  16. If the postal vote comes back as an overwhelming yes will there definitely be a free vote in parliament?

    If not, then what? Can the government be dissolved?

    I’d really like the government to be dissolved.

  17. [Player One
    Barney in Go Dau @ #261 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 1:29 pm

    You have no clothes and you have no shame!

    And you apparently have no comprehension. You think it is all about winning the vote. I think there is a significant chance the ‘yes’ campaign will not win the vote even just due to natural apathy, let lone if there is a strong ‘no’ campaign, and that it is therefore better to boycott such a flawed process altogether.]

    Unfortunately, winning the vote is what we have if this goes ahead.

    P1, talk about the flawed shame of a process that is being imposed on us all you like but when you link that to advocating that people should abstain as I said in the beginning you are being disingenuous.

    Your history in the debate here shows you are no supporter of equality in marriage, so when you advocate a position and say it is based on the flawed process and that position happens to be one that best supports your previously expressed views in the debate, it is more than appropriate to point this out.

    You have no clothes and you have no shame!

  18. And as a demonstration…

    Tingle has completely lost the thread. It’s like Stutch has told her clearly what the KPIs are for keeping a job at the AFR and she’s signed up.

    Today’s effort to try and conflate genuine questions relating to updating our constitution such as indigenous recognition and republic with dangerous populist woftams driven by right wing parties that can’t paper over their own cracks without forcing destructive stupidity on their own people such as Brexit and Trumble’s survey is so ludicrous as to be satirical.

    The sort of arrant stupidity that made me do a double take to check if it didn’t have Devine or Albrechtson in the byline.

    Tingle is unreadable now if you want any sense. The fact that this has seemed to coincide with Fairfax’s robust statement of being pro-business and pro-market doesn’t strike me as mere coincidence.

  19. TPOF @ #269 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 1:39 pm

    Thanks for that analysis Ratsak. Your post brought out something else different. Shorten’s speech on the MPI was the first time he has ever really, really gone for Turnbull’s jugular. It was really personal in a way he has never been before, despite the vile put-downs by Turnbull almost every question time going back into the past.

    The gloves are off.

    Yeah. Good thing too.

    Shorten was probably boxing clever. Trumble was more popular than him ergo attacking him risked just reinforcing that imbalance.

    Now I’d say he’s judged that the remaining edifice of that residual goodwill is ready to fall and he has nothing to fear by reinforcing and amplifying the distaste and disappointment people are feeling over Trumble.

    The distaste in his voice was genuine, but it was also political. Trumble has offered Shorten a stick to beat him with. Shorten has said ‘thanks very much’ and will use it to lay into him like a pinata from now until the Libs cut down his political corpse.

  20. K Murphy “Currently, one of Australia’s parties of government risks losing a generation of young people to progressive parties by doggedly hugging the white picket fence.”

    What on earth ever lead her to think that the LNP would be losing the younger generation exclusively over ME. I would have though they lost the majority of them years ago on so many other issues.

  21. Abbotts horrific opinion piece on the ME issue is filled to the bursting with laugh out loud moments. Amongst them:

    “It’s bad enough that the opposition-controlled senate has stopped the plebiscite from happening”

    In what universe is the senate controlled by the opposition?

  22. The best outcome for Turnbull in the SSM opinion poll is a strong NO majority and a strong campaign for a boycott might give him what he wants.

    The worst outcome for Turnbull is a massive YES majority.

    Why anyone who thinks they are even slightly progressive would vote NO or not vote at all is totally pissweak.

  23. Vote ‘Yes’, say you boycotted, and then when ‘Yes’ wins point out that if people like you hadn’t boycotted, the ‘Yes’ margin would have been even bigger.

  24. Here we go again with the Libs………….Not all the way with LBJ, but down the tube with Donald. What is it about the LNP that they just cannot wait to throw our lot in with the Americans? Is Guam technically part of the US?
    Turnbull could easily have couched his words of support in terms of caution and care, but oh no, he thinks that he is in the Big League – the same mistake as that fraudster John Howard was in with our stupid, lame and ill-thought-out involvement with “Shock and Awe” Bush Jnr.

  25. Voice Endeavour @ #260 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 1:29 pm

    The Liberals always seem to cry poor “oh, Labor have so much money because unions.”

    ‘unaccounted for’ seems to really like the Liberals.

    Liberal Party Labor Party
    Electoral Commission $12,217.00 $12,217.00
    MPs $128,256.78* $266,339.64
    Corporate/personal donors $366,664 $76,052.40
    Unions $0 $372,077.80
    Unaccounted for $1,396,011.52 $242,380.30
    Biggest Donor $210,000 from Ian and Pam Wall $238,295.07 from Shop Assistants Union
    Total receipts $1,903,149.30 $969,067.14

    The ‘Corporate/personal donors’ item should really be two separate categories with two separate numbers. One for corporate donations, and one for personal.

  26. @ a r – you’re right, although when you have one party getting more than 2/3rds of it’s money from ‘other’, the idea of categorising pretty much becomes pointless anyway

  27. The Libs have plenty of supporters who are prepared to give them money.

    Their problem is that they need to ‘wash’ most of it before they can access it.

  28. Tricot
    Here we go again with the Libs………….Not all the way with LBJ, but down the tube with Donald. What is it about the LNP that they just cannot wait to throw our lot in with the Americans? Is Guam technically part of the US?
    *****************************
    Down the DUMP with TRUMP ??????
    After World War II, the Guam Organic Act of 1950 established Guam as an unincorporated organized territory of the United States, and granted the people U.S. citizenship.
    The 1950-53 Korean War ended in an armistice, with neither side able to claim outright victory. Decades on, the truce is still all that technically prevents North Korea and the US – along with its ally South Korea – resuming the war, as no peace treaty has ever been signed.


  29. 1) do what the loons want and stay out
    2) do what the loons most fear and win bigly

    That is my conclusion; this postal thingy is the best chance we all have of telling the loons to “piss of”; no matter if you natural tendency is to vote Liberal or Labor.

  30. All I want to know is what I can write on the “questionaire” without invalidating it. I assume that if I tick the “Yes” box I can write an essay about this poxy govt and it will still be valid.

  31. “1) do what the loons want and stay out
    2) do what the loons most fear and win bigly”

    Shitecan the loons at every turn and in every way possible is the way to go.

  32. Barney in Go Dau @ #279 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 1:54 pm

    You have no clothes and you have no shame!

    You are just being boring now. If you have not been comprehending my posts in the past, and have just been assuming I support SSM because “surely everybody must” then I suggest you read them a little more diligently in the future.

  33. adrian @ #41 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 8:33 am

    Anyone who still harbours the illusion that the ABC is am impartial news organisation should have a listen to Sabra Lane’s interview with Shorten. Towards the end she goes really feral, talking over Bill about him being in jail under the new law, dining with millionaires (!) etc etc.

    Pretty disgraceful stuff.

    And I can report that from my listening that all ABC journos are 100% compliant with the SSM directive.

    That is utter rubbish and appears to be the product of a disordered mind.
    I re-listened to the interview and read the transcript here: http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2016/s4716684.htm

    There was nothing at all wrong with it. Sabra Lane was doing her job by raising issues the Govt had brought up and in doing so presented Bill Shorten with an opportunity to rebut them, which he did. He got a good run.

    I really do suggest you seek appropriate therapy to help you get over you obsessions and delusions.

  34. antonbruckner11

    Even if an essay written across the form didn’t invalidate your vote it will not make one iota of difference to the outcome. It won’t be reported on as part of a mass secondary protest and scrutineers won’t stop to read it. It will simply be a message to you.

    Maybe if you took a photo of the form before enveloping and framed a print to hang in a spot above the fireplace it would make an interesting item of historical importance for decades to come, if only to remind you and your family of the bad/mad days in a so called modern democracy.

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