Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll records the same two-party preferred result for the sixth poll in a row.

Yet another 53-47 result from Newspoll, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (unchanged), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 11% (up two) and One Nation 8% (down one). Both leaders recorded better personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull up four on approval to 38% and down four on disapproval to 50%, and Bill Shorten up three on approval to 36% and down two on disapproval to 51%. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister has widened from 43-32 to 46-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1639.

Stay tuned for federal voting intention results from the Queensland-only poll conducted for the Courier-Mail, from which state results were published yesterday.

UPDATE: The numbers from the Courier-Mail’s Galaxy poll from Queensland, conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 902, are Coalition 37% (up two since April), Labor 32% (down one), One Nation 12% (down three) and Greens 7%, with Australian Conservatives recording a fairly impressive 6%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition records a lead of 51-49, which compares with 50-50 in April and 54.1-45.9 at last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

747 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 12 of 15
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  3. I see no validity in the argument that inequality and orientation based discrimination against relationships should continue to exist for the sake of tradition. I’m sure similar arguments were made for the preservation of slavery. Traditions can burn as far as I care and are not worth preserving for their own sake, but because they sometimes contain value or merit. Marriage inequality contains neither.

  5. Greensborough Growler,
    No, it is the other Liberals who voted to maintain the status quo policy who are ‘The Irrelevant 75’.

    They, and you, and others like you, with all due respect, will be unable to hold back the tide which will inevitably wash the objections to Marriage Equality away into the dustbin of history.

  8. C@tmomma @ #555 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:00 pm

    Greensborough Growler,
    No, it is the other Liberals who voted to maintain the status quo policy who are ‘The Irrelevant 75’.

    They, and you, and others like you, with all due respect, will be unable to hold back the tide which will inevitably wash the objections to Marriage Equality away into the dustbin of history.

    Is that like the Republic?

  9. BC
    I find conservatives are quite choosy on which traditions they wish to keep hold of. Giving alms to the poor, or hanging bankers for fraud, seem to have been let go all too soon.

  10. So as expected the Libs persist with a plebiscite and the majority reactionary partyroom presence dominates those few remaining semi-moderates.

    No surprises there, and I’m glad I didn’t hold out hope there would be a parliamentary vote.

  12. Greensborough Growler @ #561 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:05 pm

    C@tmomma @ #555 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:00 pm

    Greensborough Growler,
    No, it is the other Liberals who voted to maintain the status quo policy who are ‘The Irrelevant 75’.

    They, and you, and others like you, with all due respect, will be unable to hold back the tide which will inevitably wash the objections to Marriage Equality away into the dustbin of history.

    Is that like the Republic?

    Weak False Equivalence argument, GG. I might almost say, reductio ad absurdem.

  13. Bit surprised to see John Alexander supporting SSM. Must be all those lesbians that female tennis is full of according to Margaret Court.

  14. _sprocket
    No one is expecting a DD , this term. The Senate outcome is probably intractable for both LNP and Labor and on current polling slightly favours a Labor government to effectively control the Senate than a Coalition government to be able too with PHON support. And Labor can’t call a DD because they aren’t the executive at this time. All DD triggers lapse when an election is called.

    Also going to a DD on this particular issue is campaign suicide. Unlike most DD triggers the media will make sure this issue fills most of the campaign sucking oxygen out of everything else.

  17. C@tmomma @ #562 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:09 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #561 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:05 pm

    C@tmomma @ #555 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:00 pm

    Greensborough Growler,
    No, it is the other Liberals who voted to maintain the status quo policy who are ‘The Irrelevant 75’.

    They, and you, and others like you, with all due respect, will be unable to hold back the tide which will inevitably wash the objections to Marriage Equality away into the dustbin of history.

    Is that like the Republic?

    Weak False Equivalence argument, GG. I might almost say, reductio ad absurdem.

    You’re the one using the inevitable argument.

  20. Greensborough Growler @ #570 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:13 pm

    C@tmomma @ #562 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:09 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #561 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:05 pm

    C@tmomma @ #555 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:00 pm

    Greensborough Growler,
    No, it is the other Liberals who voted to maintain the status quo policy who are ‘The Irrelevant 75’.

    They, and you, and others like you, with all due respect, will be unable to hold back the tide which will inevitably wash the objections to Marriage Equality away into the dustbin of history.

    Is that like the Republic?

    Weak False Equivalence argument, GG. I might almost say, reductio ad absurdem.

    You’re the one using the inevitable argument.

    Let’s just wait and see who ends up being on the winning side then, shall we?

  22. C@T
    Imminent retirement has certainly been a good thing for democracy in lots of cases. It just shows how shackled our politicians are to spouting views they don’t actually believe in.

  24. Elaugaufein

    Also going to a DD on this particular issue is campaign suicide. Unlike most DD triggers the media will make sure this issue fills most of the campaign sucking oxygen out of everything else.

    The trigger would be the plebiscite bill. There is no way such an issue would be central in a general election. When the next election is held, whether it’s a DD or a normal election, it will be decided on the same issues that dominate all elections – the whole suite of policies of the major parties and, especially, their claims to be able to manage the economy, taxes, social policy and public finance.

  25. Greensborough Growler @ #296 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 11:20 am

    briefly @ #289 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 1:14 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    briefly @ #265 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 12:53 pm

    GG…Jimmy is correct. What is at stake with ME has nothing to do with your rights. They are not in question. ME is about the settlement of legal rights with others. The correct parties to inquire with as to such a settlement are those who are currently denied them.

    There is no such thing as ME.

    Then why do you expend so much energy opposing it?

    You know me. I like to spend my time skewering imaginary arguments built on imaginary premises!

    Well that would explain your devout religiousness.

  26. C@tmomma @ #570 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:14 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #570 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:13 pm

    C@tmomma @ #562 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:09 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #561 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:05 pm

    C@tmomma @ #555 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:00 pm

    Greensborough Growler,
    No, it is the other Liberals who voted to maintain the status quo policy who are ‘The Irrelevant 75’.

    They, and you, and others like you, with all due respect, will be unable to hold back the tide which will inevitably wash the objections to Marriage Equality away into the dustbin of history.

    Is that like the Republic?

    Weak False Equivalence argument, GG. I might almost say, reductio ad absurdem.

    You’re the one using the inevitable argument.

    Let’s just wait and see who ends up being on the winning side then, shall we?

    Maybe a rename and revamp of Becket’s play called “Waiting for SSM” would be a good move!

  27. Briefly
    Hah. I can’t think of an election that hasn’t been dominated by a handful of policies that have sucked the oxygen out of everything else.

  28. We’ll see if this comes to pass from Mumble:

    Yet the odds remain against Malcolm lasting out the year, and the likely successor is not Bishop, or even Abbott, but Mr 3 per cent, Peter Dutton. If not him, then Scott Morrison. It’s a right-winger’s turn, you see; they’ve tried the left-wing experiment.

  29. grimace @ #575 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:19 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #296 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 11:20 am

    briefly @ #289 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 1:14 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    briefly @ #265 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 12:53 pm

    GG…Jimmy is correct. What is at stake with ME has nothing to do with your rights. They are not in question. ME is about the settlement of legal rights with others. The correct parties to inquire with as to such a settlement are those who are currently denied them.

    There is no such thing as ME.

    Then why do you expend so much energy opposing it?

    You know me. I like to spend my time skewering imaginary arguments built on imaginary premises!

    Well that would explain your devout religiousness.

    I’m not particularly devout.

    But, you fantasise about my motivations as much as you like.

  31. Elaugaufein @ #300 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 11:22 am

    Briefly
    Given the history of groups like PHON the polling numbers + MoE can be taken as a reasonably safe upper limit on vote share and you can probably project a floor assuming no disasters if you want to conduct an appropriate study of similar groups but I can’t be arsed.

    I don’t understand why PHON votes are so leaky though, PHON almost never votes to the left of the Coalition position, socially (pretty much never) or economically (rarely) and some of the times they do it seems grudgingly at best. Even without boots on the ground you’d expect a significant conservative lean as a result but it doesn’t happen, if they were properly organised you’d expect ~85% flows but that doesn’t happen either even when they do have boots on the ground.

    PHON voters seems to be motivated by something not captured by the current left / right divide. And yeah a part of it may be pre-DLP Labor Catholic Right style ingrained passive racism and conservative religious and social views. It maps fairly well to the locations PHON had strong support. The Coalition doesn’t serve those needs mucj better than Labor in their view so they revert back to their other policies and the vote scatters.

    I met with a number of self described PHON voters while I was door knocking during the recent WA election. PHON voters are united only by a sense of grievance. The issues that concern them are a political kaleidoscope.

  32. The Libs party room were always going to overwhelmingly support the plebiscite policy. Far more interesting is this notion that if both full pleb and postal pleb fail to materialise for whatever reason (High Court blockage etc) then Cabinet is open to recommending to the party room that the pleb policy be torpedoed in favour of a free vote poste haste. It stacks up doesn’t it? Effectively the moderates are saying: we’ll give your postal idea a fully fledged go, but if that fails you’ll have to accept we did our best to honour the pleb commitment and got stymied – and therefore we’ll go to free vote.

  34. confessions
    We’ll see if this comes to pass from Mumble:

    Yet the odds remain against Malcolm lasting out the year, and the likely successor is not Bishop, or even Abbott, but Mr 3 per cent, Peter Dutton. If not him, then Scott Morrison. It’s a right-winger’s turn, you see; they’ve tried the left-wing experiment.

    Nah. Turnbull will lead them to the next election, when they will be defeated. They will console themselves with the palliative that it would have been much worse with anyone else, and in this they will be correct.

    Turnbull is not much loved, but he is a lot more popular than his party, who are the biggest collection of incompetent, reactionary misfits seen in a very long time.

  35. Bill Shorten MP
    37 mins ·
    This is ridiculous.

    I am disappointed for hundreds of thousands of Australians that their Prime Minister has once again let them down.

    The Liberals have spent yet another day arguing over whether or not gay and lesbian Australians should have their relationships judged by everyone else.

    Wages aren’t growing, living standards are falling, power prices are through the roof, we’ve got a housing affordability crisis.

    But instead of figuring out what to do about all of that – they all sat in a room and argued about marriage equality.

    Another day spent fighting with each other over an issue that we could sort out in five minutes if Mr Turnbull would just let the parliament do its job and vote on it.

    I can’t control what the Government does. But if Labor is elected, we’ll legislate for marriage equality in our first 100 days.

    We’ll just get on with it and get it done.

  36. alias @ #582 Monday, August 7th, 2017 – 7:22 pm

    The Libs party room were always going to overwhelmingly support the plebiscite policy. Far more interesting is this notion that if both full pleb and postal pleb fail to materialise for whatever reason (High Court blockage etc) then Cabinet is open to recommending to the party room that the pleb policy be torpedoed in favour of a free vote poste haste. It stacks up doesn’t it? Effectively the moderates are saying: we’ll give your postal idea a fully fledged go, but if that fails you’ll have to accept we did our best to honour the pleb commitment and got stymied – and therefore we’ll go to free vote.

    The delay means Turnbull has the opportunity to increase his bad polls to around 25 or 30.

    At which time the axe will fall, a new Conservative Leader will be appointed who will immediately take it off the table because these left wing issues do nothing for the re-election prospects of the LNP.

  37. alias:

    I’m not holding any expectations that they will, but there is still the possibility the 7 Libs could still cross the floor to support a motion to suspend standing orders and bring about a vote.

  39. zoidlord

    It’s ok for white to be racist like Brandis, but not ok for the opposite

    It is not OK for Brandis and it is not OK for that guy. Doesn’t this sound familiar “Mr Elmouelhy defended comments later as ‘larrikin’ remarks”. The old it was just a joke routine.

  40. alias
    The Libs party room were always going to overwhelmingly support the plebiscite policy. Far more interesting is this notion that if both full pleb and postal pleb fail to materialise for whatever reason (High Court blockage etc) then Cabinet is open to recommending to the party room that the pleb policy be torpedoed in favour of a free vote poste haste. It stacks up doesn’t it?

    If the LNP were to participate in the passage of reform, they would get a boost in the polls. This, of course, is one reason why the Crazy Branches will try to thwart their colleagues. They hope that bad polls will work for them and allow them to dislodge Turnbull. Eventually, the fear of defeat at the next election will bring the doubters around to supporting the leadership. But until then, the Crazy Branches will sow more mischief.

  42. If the Lib MPs do proceed to participate in putting forward the private member’s Bill tomorrow, in defiance of the reaffirmation of the pleb policy by the partyroom, then my question is this:

    Can those Labor MPs opposed to SSM be persuaded to vote in favour of bringing on the debate on the basis that in doing so they’re not having to agree with SSM – simply to agree with the proposition the issue should go to a vote?

    —-

    By the by classic line by Andrew Probyn: “Being lectured on keeping election commitments by Tony Abbott is like being offered elocution lessons by Barnaby Joyce.”

  44. Interesting Ides of March.. because leaving aside the issue of SSM for one moment, that would be a massive win for Shorten on the floor of Parliament. Surely the likes of Entsch would be wise to that, and would therefore bide their time till this postal thing plays out, against their better judgment on the underlying issue.

  45. Yes, a vote to bring on discussion doesn’t commit to voting for it. Votes have been brought on before just to give definitive Nos to in the past.

  46. alias:

    Labor MPs opposed to SSM will support suspending standing orders. Shorten wouldn’t have been out so strong on the issue if there was the likelihood a vote wouldn’t even proceed.

  50. Alias
    Labor has (sort of desperately) extended the olive branch / wedge that they won’t treat floor crossing for SSO on this as a confidence matter. So that neutralizes any serious win.

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