The second fortnightly federal voting intention poll by YouGov for Fifty Acres records a three point increase in the Coalition primary vote, now at 36%, with Labor down one to 33%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation steady on 7%. The combined vote for all other parties is down two to 12%, making it slightly less unusual than that score than Newspoll and Essential Research, who respectively have it at 8% and 10%. However, what’s very unusual is a respondent-allocated two-party preferred result that gives the Coalition a lead of 52-48, the reverse of what the result would be if 2016 preference flows were used, as per the other pollsters. I don’t quite have the confidence to lead a post with “52-48 to Coalition” based such an unorthodox reading, so I’ll be using primary votes for my YouGov headlines for the time being.
The poll also found 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; health and hospitals were rated the most important election issue by 45%, followed by pensions on 33% and job security and unemployment on 31%; 56% supportive of a tax on companies that used robots to fund support for those who lost jobs as a result; and 54% expressing concern at indigenous languages falling into disuse, but only 33% believing the government should do anything about it. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Tuesday, with a sample of a little over 1000.
UPDATE: The Australia Institute has published results of a poll conducted in South Australia by ReachTEL, which shows (after allocating the forced response question from the 7.1% undecided) federal voting intention in the state at 34.3% for the Liberals (down 0.8% on last year’s election), 32.1% for Labor (up 0.6%), 14.9% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 6.4%), 6.6% for the Greens (up 0.4%), 4.6% for One Nation (didn’t field lower house candidates) and 3.9% for Australian Conservatives (unchanged on the Family First vote). There’s also a separate question on Senate voting intention, and while I have my doubts about such an exercise, it has the Liberals on 30.1% (down 2.5%), Labor on 26.1% (down 1.2%), the Nick Xenophon Team on 21.7% (unchanged), the Greens on 8.2% (up 2.3%), One Nation on 4.8% (up 1.8%) and Australian Conservatives on 5.2% (up 2.3% on the Family First vote, for the most encouraging poll result the party has yet received).
The poll also records strong support for the ABC, with 40.4% wanting its funding increased, 33.4% kept as is and only 17.5% reduced; 64.8% opposed to the government cutting funding to the ABC to get support on relaxed media ownership laws from One Nation, with 16.5% supportive; and 56.3% supportive of a strong online presence for the ABC “even if it effects the commercial viability of commercial media outlets”, with 16.4% opposed (the anti-ABC numbers across the three questions being notably similar). The automated phone poll was conducted from 1589 respondents on June 29.
Is this true or just a scurrilous rumour?
Re: the whole Trump imbroglio – I’ve always had it in the back of my mind that legal eagles have wanted to ‘get’ trump and his latter day mafia-like carry-on for donkeys years but he has always managed to slip through the noose. Whereas entering the political arena has involved an additional dimension to his legal liability and perhaps a new path for litigators to actually get him. Thus, they never tried to prevent his candidacy (probably not expecting him to actually win).
But now they’ve redoubled efforts from many directions and the deposed attorneys (like Preet Bahrara) are probably working in the background, gathering all the evidence which they can either funnel to Mueller, or keep separate if Mueller is fired and they can then come in over the top as private litigators.
Fair enough. Let’s hope so anyway. Australia needs a more successful Liberal party at the moment like a hole in the head.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-13/asylum-seeker-data-breach-costs-$1-million-in-legal-fees/8705326
Reneweconomy helped me understand how big a ripoff (and how utterly confusing) demand tariffs are.
GG
I don’t want to misquote you but I seem to recall that you have at times expressed a lot of confidence confidence that Labor will win the next election and Bill Shorten will be PM. I’m happy to be corrected if that’s not right, but if it is I would assume said confidence would be based on the state of the polls.
darn,
I am more hopeful than confident.
However, history shows that the Libs are always formidable opponents come any election. Sure, they are not travelling well atm. But, things can and do change. To think or dream the next election is a cakewalk for Shorten and the ALP is not something I’m prepared to consider atm.
confessions @ #145 Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 2:48 pm
Nonsense!
If the iceberg was part of a floating ice shelf it will make no difference.
Hard to believe a self proclaimed ‘scientist’ could repeat such a basic error of physics. The first comment I saw challenged this.
‘A SPLINTER group claiming to be a grassroots faction of the Victorian Greens has labelled the party “a disgrace”, alleging supporters are being excluded or forced to hand in their membership for expressing left-wing views.
Grassroots Greens, a faction claiming to be “group of left-wing rank and file activists and reformists within the Victorian Greens”, said members and prospective members of the Australian Greens Victoria were being excluded from the party.
“It is absolutely clear to us that these people are being excluded from the party on the basis of being outspoken about their left-wing views,” the group said in a statement.’
http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/news/geelong/grassroot-greens-claims-geelong-party-members-excluded-for-leftwing-socialist-views/news-story/18f9417b46c1b6c5e3876aab6d8f0352
@ Bemused – technically you are incorrect and the quoted source in your post is correct.
Freshwater Ice currently located under water would expand and take up 2.4% more room if it melted. The total world supply of such ice would lead to 4 cm of sea level rise if it were to all melt.
As I posted, YouGov creating alternative talking points than the regular polls.
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/federal/2017/07/13/coalition-leads-labor-in–yougov–poll.html
voice endeavour @ #160 Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 3:21 pm
The iceberg only floats because it is less dense than the surrounding sea water. As it melts, it warms and will be the same density as the surrounding seawater and occupy a smaller volume.
That’s what I was taught in high school.
Z,
Thank goodness there is no factionalism in the Greens Party!
jenauthor Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 2:55 pm
Re: the whole Trump imbroglio – I’ve always had it in the back of my mind that legal eagles have wanted to ‘get’ trump and his latter day mafia-like carry-on for donkeys years but he has always managed to slip through the noose. Whereas entering the political arena has involved an additional dimension to his legal liability and perhaps a new path for litigators to actually get him. Thus, they never tried to prevent his candidacy (probably not expecting him to actually win).
But now they’ve redoubled efforts from many directions and the deposed attorneys (like Preet Bahrara) are probably working in the background, gathering all the evidence which they can either funnel to Mueller, or keep separate if Mueller is fired and they can then come in over the top as private litigators.
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Hi Jen …… I have always thought that Trump & Family will get done over for what they did BEFORE he even thought of becoming or when he became President. From what I have read, the New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman has long had Trump in his crosshairs – even winning a $ 40 Million lawsuit about Trump University over Trump …..and similarly Preet Bahrara before Trump fired him, but Preet passed all his documentation onto Schneiderman and I am sure they will have Trump up on RICO charges for mob association, money laundering , racketeering etc etc …..
Trump has a long history of associating with pretty shady characters and lots of dodgy real-estate deals as a cover for funds being changed …. Schneiderman longs to bust the whole Trump organisation and seize all their assets ……. I think in jail and penniless is not an unrealistic possibility for Trump ….
But was it? If the iceberg that broke off was part of an ice-shelf whose mass was wholly or partly supported by the underlying landmass, it will contribute towards sea-level rise.
I’m not a physicist, but I’d suspect that the structural loadings within Antarctic ice sheets are complex, and that in many cases even sheets that are physically positioned directly over water still have a portion of their mass borne by the landmass.
If the ice shelf was already fully free-floating, wouldn’t it have already been considered an iceberg?
@ Bemused –
Noerdlinger, Peter D.; Brower, Kay R.
“It is shown that the melting of ice floating on the ocean will introduce a volume of water about 2.6 per cent greater than that of the originally displaced sea water. The melting of floating ice in a global warming will cause the ocean to rise. If all the extant sea ice and floating shelf ice melted, the global sea level would rise about 4 cm. The sliding of grounded ice into the sea, however, produces a mean water level rise in two parts; some of the rise is delayed. The first part, while the ice floats, is equal to the volume of displaced sea water. The second part, equal to 2.6 per cent of the first, is contributed as it melts. These effects result from the difference in volume of equal weights of fresh and salt water. This component of sea rise is apparently unrecognized in the literature to date, although it can be interpreted as a form of halosteric sea level change by regarding the displaced salt water and the meltwater (even before melting) as a unit. Although salinity changes are known to affect sea level, all existing analyses omit our calculated volume change. We present a protocol that can be used to calculate global sea level rise on the basis of the addition of meltwater from grounded and floating ice; of course thermosteric volume change must be added.”
http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/bsc/gji/2007/00000170/00000001/art00010
Lizzie
It was in the Solomon Islands. He was involved in a company with very bad logging practices .
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2004/s1210315.htm
As the berg melts it will reflect less sunlight. If it isnt replaced; an increase to global warming?
It exposes the land based glacier to potentially faster movement and melting.
Remind me; which political party is defunding climate research?
confessions @ #145 Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 2:48 pm
Bullsh!t!!!
As we are talking about sea ice it was already displacing its weight of sea water so its breaking away from the other sea ice will have no impact on sea level.
Now if you want to talk about the ice on the Antarctic continent then that’s a different beast.
I had the same view, esp with all those warrants and pending lawsuits. But with each month that passes with no apparent action resulting from them, I’m beginning to lose confidence on that front.
Barney:
You should watch the video and take issue with the points raised rather than shouting at me.
confessions Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 3:43 pm
“ I have always thought that Trump & Family will get done over for what they did BEFORE he even thought of becoming or when he became President.”
I had the same view, esp with all those warrants and pending lawsuits. But with each month that passes with no apparent action resulting from them, I’m beginning to lose confidence on that front.
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Confessions – I stand to be corrected on this – but I don’t think a sitting President can be convicted of any civil crime whilst in office ????? ……….. any RICO charges would have to be AFTER he is out of office ….
confessions @ #171 Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 3:46 pm
Sorry ‘fess,
I was shouting at the video. 🙂
Is the President Above the Law? Trump Unlikely to Face Criminal Charges Unless He Is Impeached
http://www.newsweek.com/trump-comey-laws-constitution-611066
So for context, the Iceberg that calved off, will increase the volume of the water plus ice in the sea by 2.6% of it’s 1 trillion ton cubic meter volume (30 Billion cubic meters). This will increase sea levels by 0.1 mm. This increase is now inevitable, as the source described it.
Calculated by converting radius of earth at sea level into a volume, adding 1.5* the increase in volume (as 2/3rds of the earth’s surface is water), then converting the new volume into a new radius and calculating the difference.
Yes, 0.1 mm isn’t going to sink any islands, which is why I said you were ‘technically’ wrong.
If the same amount of ice melted from above land, it would have 40x the impact, or 4 mm.
Please everybody ignore that I just said 1 trillion ton cubic meter and pretend I just said 1 trillion cubic meter.
kthx
Who’s the Rat?
White House aides and advisers also spent part of the day guessing who was leaking — and their motivation.
Trump Jr. had looped in then-campaign chairman Paul Manafort and Kushner to the email chain, and included them in the meeting with the Russian lawyer, Natalia Veselnitskaya, at Trump Tower.
“There’s only a few names on those emails,” one person close to the White House said. “And it would have to be someone out to get the president’s son.”
There’s a general feeling of paranoia in the West Wing about who leaked details of the meeting, with speculation that it might have come from within the White House.
But one White House aide said, “There’s no way to know.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/11/trump-junior-white-house-scandal-russia-240433
a r @ #165 Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 3:30 pm
Then it would already have done so.
Any effect would have already been noticed and is obviously close to zero.
**If coal was also eligible for government support, like renewables, then there would be more market interest, he (Barnaby Joyce) said.**
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/13/barnaby-joyce-ill-support-a-clean-energy-target-if-coal-is-included
Ummmmm, you dont get it do you Barbrady? Hasnt Coal had enough subsidies over its history? Not to mention existing subsidies….
**A (2014) report finds exploration by coal and energy companies is subsidised by Australian taxpayers by as much as $US3.5 billion every year in the form of direct spending and tax breaks… (and) exploration subsidies were just a fraction of the subsidies received by the fossil fuel industry**
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-11/coal-oil-and-gas-companies-receive-4-billion-dollar-in-subsidie/5881814
barney in go dau @ #169 Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 3:43 pm
Exactly!
Apart from minuscule second, third or subsequent order effects..
confessions Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 3:43 pm
“ I have always thought that Trump & Family will get done over for what they did BEFORE he even thought of becoming or when he became President.”
I had the same view, esp with all those warrants and pending lawsuits. But with each month that passes with no apparent action resulting from them, I’m beginning to lose confidence on that front.
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Confessions – the other thing I thought of was the COMPLEXITY of the Trump dealings …..the network of HOW and WHO he dealt with is totally mind boggling ….. and the methods of digital manipulation through Cambridge etc …. and through sleazebags like Brad Parscale is beyond anything seen due to the modern way of dealing with the digital highyway that has no paper trail as in bygone days ….
barney in go dau @ #173 Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 3:50 pm
Which she uncritically endorsed.
She is a self professed ‘scientist’.
PhoenixRed:
I don’t think a sitting POTUS has ever been charged with crimes before, certainly not in the modern era anyways. I don’t know if that means it isn’t constitutionally permissible or simply that there has never been a POTUS quite like Trump with such a shady past.
…or until he leaves office by any other means. The statute of limitations on most of the things he would stand accused of is probably more than 4 years.
@ Bemused – see above. Direct, first order effects of this iceberg melting are 0.1 mm of sea level rise. You are right that there will also be 2nd order effects from the change in Albedo, and 3rd order effects if and when this shelving event hastens the collapse of the entire ice shelf, which will hasten the rate at which glaciers melt into the sea.
Barney:
No worries. The man interviewed in the video made it quite clear that if certain circumstances were present, sea level rises would be inevitable. Personally I see no problem with anything that was reported outside the SMH sensationalising the headline. But as anyone who consumes mainstream media knows, you usually have to go beyond simply reading the headline to get to the crux of the matter.
No, because it is attached to the land.
The main significance of the current breakaway, is that the floating coastal ice sheets tend to reduce the rate at which the land based ice sheets slide into the sea. As they break up, this protection is reduced.
VE
Agree with all your points.
A saner presentation of the situation in Antarctica.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-12/huge-iceberg-breaks-away-from-antarctica-larsen-c-shelf/8703238
Another 1GW solar pipeline flagged, with eye to Australian coal hubs
Also:
Each bit of additional storage that rolls out eats into the business model of the gas generator rorters, putting downward pressure on both prices and emissions.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/another-1gw-solar-pipeline-flagged-eye-australian-coal-hubs-63481/
confessions Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 4:04 pm
PhoenixRed:
or simply that there has never been a POTUS quite like Trump with such a shady past.
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I think if you go look very deeply into some modern POTUS ……..like JFK … LBJ ….. to name just two that come to mind from my recent readings …… you will find a level of corruption totally beyond belief ……………. the 2 Bush family Presidents too have lots of ‘skeletons’ in their closet …..
PhoenixRed:
Indeed. As soon as I hit submit I thought of the the Shrub. But still. Trump makes GWB look competent!
And people talk about “PB echo chambers”. Here’s Barnaby…
Yep, ever since the election it has all been up and up. I hope he believes it.
confessions Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 4:21 pm
PhoenixRed:
Indeed. As soon as I hit submit I thought of the the Shrub. But still. Trump makes GWB look competent!
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I think GWB would be ok to have over to the BBQ and a few beers ……… but Trump – the guy and his whole Adams family just ooze sleaze out of every pore – the women are as false as their *plastic surgery* and the sons are dipshit dumb as dogshit ……
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkIJTh0WbeA
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aj37lrHZ-hA
VE
If Genex can’t get funds for Kidson (the most likely hydro battery scheme I’ve seen) then NAIF should written off as a total coal fuelled wa#k.
This article about solar in Florida illustrates a few points relevant to Australia:
1) Everyone -or nearly everyone – loves solar, except the incumbent gentailers.
2) Even Tea Party conservatives support solar.
3) Gentailers are a powerful lobby group and the fossil fuel interests are out to muddy the waters any way they can.
4) Once you can sell power to your neighbour, it’s all over for the gentailers.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/clouds-over-americas-sunshine-state-79828/
boerwar @ #149 Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 2:53 pm
Not really. The rapid break up of the remaining ice shelf, followed by increased glacial flow that was being impeded by the ice shelf has been observed so many times now that it is reasonable to say that sea level rise is inevitable.
PhoenixRed:
I used to love how Bill Maher would compare Trump with Obama, riffing the racists who support Trump by pointing out the fact that the guy who had 5 kids with 3 different women wasn’t the black man.
A piece about all the Harry Potter references entering politics.
For mine I’d say the Liberal and National Parties would be represented by The Ministry of Magic.
Complete denial of the issues changing us as a society at the moment.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/13/tony-abbott-is-not-voldemort-hes-peeves-please-get-your-harry-potter-references-right
confessions Thursday, July 13, 2017 at 4:40 pm
PhoenixRed:
I used to love how Bill Maher would compare Trump with Obama, riffing the racists who support Trump by pointing out the fact that the guy who had 5 kids with 3 different women wasn’t the black man.
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I’ll take Michelle Obama any day over some plastic surgeoned, botoxed store dummy cyberbully enabler wife …..