The second fortnightly federal voting intention poll by YouGov for Fifty Acres records a three point increase in the Coalition primary vote, now at 36%, with Labor down one to 33%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation steady on 7%. The combined vote for all other parties is down two to 12%, making it slightly less unusual than that score than Newspoll and Essential Research, who respectively have it at 8% and 10%. However, what’s very unusual is a respondent-allocated two-party preferred result that gives the Coalition a lead of 52-48, the reverse of what the result would be if 2016 preference flows were used, as per the other pollsters. I don’t quite have the confidence to lead a post with “52-48 to Coalition” based such an unorthodox reading, so I’ll be using primary votes for my YouGov headlines for the time being.
The poll also found 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; health and hospitals were rated the most important election issue by 45%, followed by pensions on 33% and job security and unemployment on 31%; 56% supportive of a tax on companies that used robots to fund support for those who lost jobs as a result; and 54% expressing concern at indigenous languages falling into disuse, but only 33% believing the government should do anything about it. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Tuesday, with a sample of a little over 1000.
UPDATE: The Australia Institute has published results of a poll conducted in South Australia by ReachTEL, which shows (after allocating the forced response question from the 7.1% undecided) federal voting intention in the state at 34.3% for the Liberals (down 0.8% on last year’s election), 32.1% for Labor (up 0.6%), 14.9% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 6.4%), 6.6% for the Greens (up 0.4%), 4.6% for One Nation (didn’t field lower house candidates) and 3.9% for Australian Conservatives (unchanged on the Family First vote). There’s also a separate question on Senate voting intention, and while I have my doubts about such an exercise, it has the Liberals on 30.1% (down 2.5%), Labor on 26.1% (down 1.2%), the Nick Xenophon Team on 21.7% (unchanged), the Greens on 8.2% (up 2.3%), One Nation on 4.8% (up 1.8%) and Australian Conservatives on 5.2% (up 2.3% on the Family First vote, for the most encouraging poll result the party has yet received).
The poll also records strong support for the ABC, with 40.4% wanting its funding increased, 33.4% kept as is and only 17.5% reduced; 64.8% opposed to the government cutting funding to the ABC to get support on relaxed media ownership laws from One Nation, with 16.5% supportive; and 56.3% supportive of a strong online presence for the ABC “even if it effects the commercial viability of commercial media outlets”, with 16.4% opposed (the anti-ABC numbers across the three questions being notably similar). The automated phone poll was conducted from 1589 respondents on June 29.
Morning all.
JBishop is the interviewee on Insiders this morning. I wonder if a) she’ll be asked about the male dominated preselections for the vacant WA Senate seat, and if so b) how she will respond.
GeorgeBludger: Hi @TurnbullMalcolm FYI bank transfers to the Cayman Islands are encrypted.
Oh – – , And here was I thinking protest is legal in Australia:
In a recent mail-out entitled “Help end special tax treatment for anti-mining protest groups” the NSW Minerals Council told members that “Greenpeace, Lock the Gate and groups like them currently receive Deductible Gift Recipient (DGR) status which means that donations to them are tax-deductible. This assists them to raise funds for illegal protests.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/15/governments-letter-to-conservation-groups-has-ominous-implications
Silly me.
But who to believe?
Sohar, I am not a fervent Clintonian, but I would have voted for her. The link you provided is to a rather boring article with no new onsights and a disingenuous headline. Yawn.
Kevjohnno,
“Language evolves and now working the word ‘Hilarious’ in a response is popular.”
It certainly does evolve quickly. “asshole” is fine but “sweetie” can now get you banned. Hilarious.
Some men just don’t get it. Or some men are too concerned with defending their gender despite evidence in black and white that one of their own has exhibited a pattern of behaviour that makes it obvious to Blind Freddy that they are behaving towards women posters in a condescending and derogatory and sexist manner. Even if they may also take the opportunity from time to time to have a swing at those of their own gender, that fact in no way excuses their behaviour on the blog, over a very long period of time, years in fact, towards women posters.
Now, do I also need to explain to you that calling someone an ‘asshole’ is NOT sexist or condescending because we all have one!?!
At least show a little respect to the Moderator of the blog who has stated that he came to his decision after careful reflection. You could learn a lot from that member of your gender about standards.
MF
Sanders was no Clintonian. He voted campaigned for her. In US politics its simple. The nominated person won the popular vote. Due to the whole Russia thing its debatable that Trump won legitimately.
I don’t see Sanders debating this fact. He is just campaigning on policy a lot of which Clinton took on board to secure Sanders support and get him campaigning for her.
There is no divide between Sanders and Clintonian in that sense. The Democrats worked that out in the nomination process and now Sanders is pushing for policy change not a Presidential bid.
The Democrats are having a debate the policy momentum is with Sanders and I have not seen much push back against that from the Democrats. Of course I may have missed it with all the noise of The Resistance (of which Clinton and Sanders are a prominent part) and the Russia thing.
MF
Oh in case you misconstrue. I am agreeing with you.
Wow truly dinosaurs
COBrienBris: Motion to pull out of Paris Climate Accord about to be debated at @LNPQLD convention. @abcnews #qldpol
[William Bowe
Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 3:49 am
After much careful reflection, I’ve decided that no woman who comes here should ever have to put up with being addressed as “sweetie”. If Bemused doesn’t offer Confessions an unreserved apology that’s untainted in any way by self-justification or smart-arsery, I’m going to ban him.]
I apologise unreservedly for, on one occasion, referring to Confessions as ‘sweetie’.
I know William is extremely fair and I now look forward to grovelling apologies from those who continually heap abuse on me, notably among them, Confessions and Briefly.
Guytaur,
Haha…thanks for letting me know…I was trying to figure out how to respond!
Guytaur:
There have been some crazy things debated at the LNP conference. Lyle Shelton was crowing about a sanctity of life motion yesterday.
Sohar
The usual tripe, used in this case to try and flog a book.
Guytaur, martha
Well said on Clinton. Also US voter turnout was so low that less than half those legally registered to vote did so, and less than half of them voted for Trump. So less than 1 in 4 registered voters (22% IIRC), or less than 1 in 6 US citizens voted for Trump. As well as illegal assistance from Russia, Trump also got supposedly legal but unconstitutional voter suppression efforts to help him from many partisan state governors. Terrible election, terrible president. A mandate for nothing.
Insiders focusing on the Liberal tensions and identity crisis. I had no idea so much had been said over the week about the issue. Talk about a rabble.
We are starting to see a similar ‘great divide’ in this country s exists in the US.
Progressive or at least, “thinking”, adults versus the “So indoctrinated” by either religious or corporate protectionist/backward thinking/delusional r-w ideologies that we see the most outrageous statements and positions taken by people in power.
The polarisation of stupidity is mind-boggling when you step back … mind-boggling because people apparently “believe” the propaganda.
personal bias here – but I sincerely hope Mueller has ‘something’ on this digital jerk …..
Trump campaign’s web guru wanted for questioning by Congress about spread of Russian propaganda
On Friday, Trump’s bearded digital data guru Brad Parscale accepted an invitation to testify before the House Intelligence Committee’s Russia investigation.
The committee is probing whether the Trump camp colluded with Russia in unleashing fake news and propaganda to undermine the candidacy of Trump’s rival, Hillary Clinton. Parscale says he is unaware of any Russian involvement in Trump’s digital and data campaign.
According to CNN, the campaign’s data operation helped it to figure out where Trump’s message was resonating in states such Michigan and Wisconsin, which were traditionally pro-Democrat but switched to the Republicans and handed Trump victory.
Parscale rejects claims that Trump’s digital campaign, which was overseen by the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, colluded with Russia, providing them with voter data to target U.S. citizens with fake news and propaganda.
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/trump-campaigns-web-guru-called-to-testify-before-house-committee-investigating-russia-collusion/
Bishop can say lets dismiss Labor party polling. Problem is its true and and she is dismissing voters views
Gawd – morning ‘current affairs’ to today is appalling – we have a choice of Brandis or Bishop. Sigh. Coffee time!
Jenauthor
A high profile whistle blower agrees with you.
Snowden: The contempt of national leaders for scientific literacy claims more lives than any radical. This kind of thinking is a civilizational risk: twitter.com/Henry_Belot/st…
And the Coalition government have been unable to sort out ‘Labor’s refugee mess’ for more than 4 years now!
The Coalition can’t keep blaming Labor forevermore!
Lizzie
I saw Vanstone when she was on the Drum.
She didn’t “miss” Tones now that he’s marked down as gone feral.
Bishop can say lets dismiss Labor party polling. Problem is its true and and she is dismissing voters views.
Exactly. The people who were polled weren’t in the Labor Party, fcs Bishop!
The Labor push polling on Bishop may well backfire on them.
The Liberals might just decide to dump Turnbull and take a punt on Bishop.
Not clever, IMO.
Watch them. ‘Blame Labor’ is the only thing Pyne says.
“We have a Ministerial level dialogue with China on Human Rights.”
Which is behind closed doors. Which is effectively useless.
BW
Bishop has a history. Plagiarism being one. Also something about not being a good economic manager.
I think there is plenty there for Labor to work with if the LNP are stupid enough to dump Turnbull. First call out will be LNP learnt absolutely nothing from Labor about disunity
kevjohnno @ #1035 Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 6:59 am
Why don’t you start referring to women you work with as “sweetie” and see how long it takes for you to be “invited” to a meeting with HR to discuss the matter? It’s in most cases a demeaning way to address a woman
Boerwar,
Julie Bishop is incapable of getting her head around complicated Treasury briefs. That much is a provable given. She doesn’t have what it takes to be a leader of a party or a government.
Charlie Veron quoted in the SMH:
[Veron has variously referred to Carmichael as “evil”, “beyond logic” and “appallingly stupid”. The larger problem is not the mine, as bad as that is. It’s Australia, it’s the world; it’s our complacency, our distrust of science and, of course, it’s our politicians. “We are being led by idiots,” Veron says. Former federal environment minister Greg Hunt is “the most stupid man you could ever hope to meet”. Tony Abbott is a “moron”; Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, who has also backed the mine, “just awful”. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, he says, is the worst of the lot. “A few years ago I talked to him for two hours about climate change, and he had a great grasp of it. Then he turns around and does nothing. To me, that is truly criminal.”]
http://www.smh.com.au/good-weekend/charlie-veron-the-dire-environmental-prognosis-we-cannot-ignore-20170711-gx8tqr.html
Unions! Seriously is that all they have?
Good response on Trump’s comment about Macron’s wife. “I wonder if she could say the same thing about him.”
sallymcmanus: Julie Bishop is proud of the work they have done taking rights from working ppl & tax cuts for the already wealthy. Says it all #insiders
Apart from anything else, the Labor ploy is Old Politics.
Something that is distinctly off-putting for young voters especially.
I am pretty sick of it as well.
Let’s just leave the sick-making stuff to the Coalition.
“He’s a paid-up member of the Union Movement.”
Bishop on Bill Shorten.
Heaven forfend, Julie! Must support the bastard employers every step of the way, even if they mine asbestos, eh Julie!?!
The one ‘issue’ I have with dissing Bishop as a Loib prospect: if we are even remotely a country filled with idiots like the US, her history will not matter a whit.
Turnbull had a history, don’t forget, and he was greeted by many on both sides with glowing optimism. Julie would likely get the same, PLUS, the Libs can use the gender card and make it work, unlike ALP, because Libs automatically respect Lib women (read worship as madonna-like figures simply … well … because). Labor women aren’t worthy of that respect therefore can be trashed by Libs and its propaganda arms without compunction.
Lizzie
Both could be correct. The deal is “continuing” but they have stopped processing , apparently refugee numbers cap has been reached.
Jen
I agree with only one qualification. The Corbyn results in the UK show that social media is changing the agenda as less people give credibility to the mainstream press.
“The usual tripe”. Well, we can agree on that appraisal of Hilary, Zoom.
I agree with Boerwar that the Julie Bishop for PM by Labor is push-polling. However they are probably hoping that this stirs up Liberal division and possibly a change of leader. Bishop PM would suit Labor down to the ground.
Being FM is the easiest job in government. You can look good swanning around on the world stage with decisions having almost no consequence on domestic politics. Who can forget when Bishop first became deputy leader in Opposition and took the Treasury portfolio and made a complete hash of it because she was totally, intellectually speaking, out of her depth and was replaced by Joe Hockey.
Bishop is floss and gloss and has little or no policy substance. Bishop PM , in the extremely unlikely event it would happen, would be an absolute joke and a disaster.
So why doesn’t the Turnbull government increase Pensions and Newstart payments so the recipients can pay their Electricity bills more easily!?!
Great discussion from the panel about Craig Kelly’s stupidity. Why can’t the press gallery as a whole simply be as dismissive instead of buying into the issue as if it’s some kind of debate?
jenauthor @ #1086 Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 9:28 am
I disagree Jen,
Turnbull’s optimism was generated was generated by progressive ideas he had publicly advocated over many years and what many believed he stood for.
What does Bishop stand for?
Labor should be attacking Bishop for allowing us to slide sideways into the civil war between the christians and the muslims in Mindanao.
Labor should be attacking Bishop for halving foreign aid for family planning.
Not giving Bishop a profile boost which the Western Australian state Labor folk will not find helpful at all.
Smart? No.
Smartarse?
Julie Bishop was shadow Treasurer for 5 months from September 2008 to February 2009. In this, she proved a dud and had to resign owing to dissatisfaction within Liberal ranks over her performance.
Confessions:
“Great discussion from the panel about Craig Kelly’s stupidity. Why can’t the press gallery as a whole simply be as dismissive instead of buying into the issue as if it’s some kind of debate?”
Which is exactly how it was portrayed on 7.30.
The time for such deception is over.
Katharine Murphy back to polishing Turnbull mode.
Problem is once the Encryption nut is cracked it is like an omelette, you can’t put it back together safely and securely.
ClubeGaffer: