YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7

The second federal poll from YouGov goes against the grain in recording an uptick in support for the Coalition, while also finding a big majority in favour of legalising same-sex marriage.

The second fortnightly federal voting intention poll by YouGov for Fifty Acres records a three point increase in the Coalition primary vote, now at 36%, with Labor down one to 33%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation steady on 7%. The combined vote for all other parties is down two to 12%, making it slightly less unusual than that score than Newspoll and Essential Research, who respectively have it at 8% and 10%. However, what’s very unusual is a respondent-allocated two-party preferred result that gives the Coalition a lead of 52-48, the reverse of what the result would be if 2016 preference flows were used, as per the other pollsters. I don’t quite have the confidence to lead a post with “52-48 to Coalition” based such an unorthodox reading, so I’ll be using primary votes for my YouGov headlines for the time being.

The poll also found 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; health and hospitals were rated the most important election issue by 45%, followed by pensions on 33% and job security and unemployment on 31%; 56% supportive of a tax on companies that used robots to fund support for those who lost jobs as a result; and 54% expressing concern at indigenous languages falling into disuse, but only 33% believing the government should do anything about it. The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Tuesday, with a sample of a little over 1000.

UPDATE: The Australia Institute has published results of a poll conducted in South Australia by ReachTEL, which shows (after allocating the forced response question from the 7.1% undecided) federal voting intention in the state at 34.3% for the Liberals (down 0.8% on last year’s election), 32.1% for Labor (up 0.6%), 14.9% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 6.4%), 6.6% for the Greens (up 0.4%), 4.6% for One Nation (didn’t field lower house candidates) and 3.9% for Australian Conservatives (unchanged on the Family First vote). There’s also a separate question on Senate voting intention, and while I have my doubts about such an exercise, it has the Liberals on 30.1% (down 2.5%), Labor on 26.1% (down 1.2%), the Nick Xenophon Team on 21.7% (unchanged), the Greens on 8.2% (up 2.3%), One Nation on 4.8% (up 1.8%) and Australian Conservatives on 5.2% (up 2.3% on the Family First vote, for the most encouraging poll result the party has yet received).

The poll also records strong support for the ABC, with 40.4% wanting its funding increased, 33.4% kept as is and only 17.5% reduced; 64.8% opposed to the government cutting funding to the ABC to get support on relaxed media ownership laws from One Nation, with 16.5% supportive; and 56.3% supportive of a strong online presence for the ABC “even if it effects the commercial viability of commercial media outlets”, with 16.4% opposed (the anti-ABC numbers across the three questions being notably similar). The automated phone poll was conducted from 1589 respondents on June 29.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: L-NP 36, ALP 33, Greens 12, One Nation 7”

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  1. Bemused

    Your suggestion of having a candidate say they have renounced any other citizenship they know they have would be somewhat reassuring to their party but not more than that.

    It is requirement in the Constitution that members have no other citizenship so I don’t think the govt could legislate a way around it.

    (Ludlam for example thought he had no other citizenship so an addition to their form would have not stopped his candidacy.)

  2. As if there are not enough concerns at present with ISIS, North Korea etc., here is another.

    Territory trouble

    Despite more than a century of negotiations, the China–India border dispute has flared again, this time under two strongly nationalist leaders

    On a Himalayan plateau next to the mountainous Indian state of Sikkim, jammed between India, Nepal, Tibet and Bhutan, Chinese and Indian troops are again facing off over a disputed border. Known for its periodic flare-ups, the India–China border dispute has been the major sticking point in the two countries’ relationship since the late nineteenth century. Indeed, a colonial-era treaty has resurfaced as a focal point in the current stand-off, proving that history casts a long shadow in this part of the world.

    Although they’re often referred to as a single “dispute,” the border tensions centre on two distinct areas that tend to flare up independently of each other. The current skirmishes are in the eastern sector, in the Sikkim region, sandwiched between Bhutan and Nepal. This area, along with the eastern border that runs to the north of India’s Arunachal Pradesh state – known as the Line of Actual Control or the McMahon Line – was a major point of conflict in the 1962 Sino-Indian War.

    The other disputed area, in the western sector, runs from Nepal’s western border up to the Aksai Chin territory, bordering Tibet, the Chinese province of Xinjiang, and the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. The Aksai Chin is claimed by India but administered by China.

    http://insidestory.org.au/territory-trouble

  3. ctar1 @ #1004 Saturday, July 15, 2017 at 10:19 pm

    Bemused
    Your suggestion of having a candidate say they have renounced any other citizenship they know they have would be somewhat reassuring to their party but not more than that.
    It is requirement in the Constitution that members have no other citizenship so I don’t think the govt could legislate a way around it.
    (Ludlam for example thought he had no other citizenship so an addition to their form would have not stopped his candidacy.)

    Yes, I agree about the Constitution, but what is required to renounce a citizenship?
    I am suggesting legislation could be framed to make it possible by, say, a sworn declaration. An amendment to the Citizenship Act or whatever it is called?

  4. bemused

    My understanding is that, if you can’t actually renounce a citizenship (there are some countries which decide you’re a citizen whether you want to be or not) you have to show that you have taken steps to do so, and make a declaration that you have done so.

    That’s certainly what the ALP asks candidates to do – at one stage they were worried I might be a Lithuanian citizen even if I didn’t know it.

  5. zoomster @ #1007 Saturday, July 15, 2017 at 10:27 pm

    bemused
    My understanding is that, if you can’t actually renounce a citizenship (there are some countries which decide you’re a citizen whether you want to be or not) you have to show that you have taken steps to do so, and make a declaration that you have done so.
    That’s certainly what the ALP asks candidates to do – at one stage they were worried I might be a Lithuanian citizen even if I didn’t know it.

    So that implies it requires a measure of agreement and/or cooperation from the other country of which you are a citizen? As a sovereign nation, surely Australia should not accept such a proposition and should have a mechanism under Australian law?
    Seems like a major issue that need tidying up.

  6. Zoomster / Bemused

    I think Zoomster is right that you need at least tried.

    It’s a bit of a tricky beast when you try to work through it.

    A HC ruling is what is needed.

  7. ctar1 @ #1010 Saturday, July 15, 2017 at 10:40 pm

    Zoomster / Bemused
    I think Zoomster is right that you need at least tried.
    It’s a bit of a tricky beast when you try to work through it.
    A HC ruling is what is needed.

    Yep! That makes sense.
    But particularly difficult in cases such as Ludlam where he was not even aware of his NZ citizenship.
    The replacement for Bob Day had some issues too IIRC, but they were apparently resolved satisfactorily although I don’t recall how.

  8. william bowe @ #1011 Saturday, July 15, 2017 at 10:46 pm

    There was a High Court ruling in 1992, and it was that which established the test that one must take “reasonable steps” to renounce foreign nationality.

    Did they define “reasonable steps”? If not, is the issue resolved at all unless there is acceptance by the other country.

  9. Greetings all from the sunny Maldives where her Ladyship, the Princess and I have been luxuriously languishing for the past two weeks.
    Easy to see given former Senator Ludlams citizenship issues when he says he became naturalised Australian in his teens and assumed he was no longer a kiwi.
    Anyhow, back to the drinks with furniture in them for another week when the fair damsels of the house of Ha Ha will depart for a month in Australia and I for a week in the Emerald Isle.

  10. As a Labor party member and long time supporter of unions I was very happy and proud to see the video of Bill Shorten addressing the workers at Longford who are fighting the cuts to their wages which are being forced on them by Esso (ExxonMobil) and UGL. It’s long overdue that the leader of the Labor Party (be they the PM or the opposition leader) visibly supports workers fighting for better conditions.

    The video is available on the ALP Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/LaborConnect/

    Disclosure of interest:
    1. I was the finance manager for the previous maintenance contractor (a joint venture which UGL was a part) for a couple of years, though I’m not the immediate previous incumbent and I wasn’t an employee of either the JV or UGL
    2. My employer was the other JV partner and I still work for them.
    3. I was in Sale a couple of weeks ago and it was absolutely freezing. The guys on the picket line need all the support they can get.

  11. confessions @ #878 Saturday, July 15, 2017 at 5:32 pm

    Poroti:
    I guess nobody thought evangelicals would be so hypocritical in being able to vote for the one candidate who trashed all their supposed values. Love this Bill Maher take on the issue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=191kow6kLUM

    You obviously have little direct experience with the devoutly religious. They are among the most hypocritical people you are going to have the misfortune of dealing with. As with anyone who goes around declaring what a great Christian/Muslim/Buddist etc they are, they are not to be trusted under any circumstances.

  12. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-australia-exclusive-idUSKBN1A00EG

    July 15, 2017 / 10:46 PM / an hour ago
    Exclusive: Australia-U.S. refugee swap again in doubt as officials exit Nauru
    Colin Packham and Yeganeh Torbati

    SYDNEY/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. officials interviewing refugees held in an Australian-run offshore detention center left the facility abruptly, three detainees told Reuters on Saturday, throwing further doubt over a plan to resettle many of the detainees in America.

    U.S. officials halted screening interviews and departed the Pacific island of Nauru on Friday, two weeks short of their scheduled timetable and a day after Washington said the United States had reached its annual refugee intake cap.

    “U.S. (officials) were scheduled to be on Nauru until July 26 but they left on Friday,” one refugee told Reuters, requesting anonymity as he did not want to jeopardize his application for U.S. resettlement.

    In the United States, a senior member of the union that represents refugee officers at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), a Department of Homeland Security agency, told Reuters his own trip to Nauru was not going forward as scheduled.

  13. Leroy Lynch @ #1020 Saturday, July 15th, 2017 – 11:44 pm

    U.S. officials halted screening interviews and departed the Pacific island of Nauru on Friday, two weeks short of their scheduled timetable and a day after Washington said the United States had reached its annual refugee intake cap.

    Yes, the refugee cap thing was reported a few days ago:

    The Trump administration reached its self-imposed quota on refugee admissions for the 2017 fiscal year this week, according to State Department data posted online, and will dramatically reduce admissions going forward.

    The quota of 50,000 was initially set by President Donald Trump as part of his travel ban executive order in January, but was shelved for several months as the legality of the order was contested in the US court system.

    Last month, when the Supreme Court upheld elements of the ban, the quota was reinstated.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/12/politics/refugee-admissions-quota-us-trump/index.html

    I’m sure the U.S. bureaucracy will continue finding any excuse to avoid taking even a single one of those refugees.

  14. Confessions is right. She’s right about the LNP’s attempts to rewire debate on emissions reduction policies and flip it into a discussion about the greatness of coal and the tyranny of clean energy. The LNP are lying….again, or still, or….anyway, oozing deceit but fooling no-one.

    She’s also right about the other stuff…about the stalking and the sexism, the attention-seeking churlishness, the acting-out and the toddler-like smart-arsery. Still, being right is not much use when the footpaths are littered with dogs’ muck and you’re trying to walk barefoot.

  15. Thanks Briefly. I’ve no idea why bemused bullies me other than that I am a woman who has the temerity to comment here and a woman who called out Kevin Rudd’s treachery.

  16. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/14/british-companies-must-have-voices-heard-on-brexit-says-mp

    Articulate, smart, young Labour woman wins all-party election in the Commons and takes aim at Brexit. The Australian House of Representatives could learn a lot….

    Saturday 15 July 2017 03.26 AEST Last modified on Saturday 15 July 2017 08.45 AEST
    Rachel Reeves, the chair of the House of Commons business select committee, says she will use her powerful new role to ensure Britain’s companies can make their voices heard on Brexit.

    The Labour MP for Leeds West, and former Bank of England economist, beat three of her colleagues, including Liam Byrne, to the job on Wednesday, in an election among MPs from all parties.

    Reeves said she would follow in the footsteps of her predecessor, Iain Wright, by holding rogue firms to account – but also explore the risks of Brexit for businesses.

    “In some ways we will be the friend of business on Brexit, and ensure that their voice is heard. It’s about holding the government to account, but also trying to get it right in terms of our future relationship, for business, investment and jobs,” she said.

  17. After much careful reflection, I’ve decided that no woman who comes here should ever have to put up with being addressed as “sweetie”. If Bemused doesn’t offer Confessions an unreserved apology that’s untainted in any way by self-justification or smart-arsery, I’m going to ban him.

  18. GOP Rep Drops A Bomb On Trump By Saying WH May Be Part Of A Criminal Conspiracy With Russia

    Republicans are finding it increasingly hard to defend the Trump team’s conduct with Russia during the 2016 campaign.

    That was clear on Saturday as GOP Rep. Leonard Lance of New Jersey, one Republican who has been tough on the White House, refused to rule out criminal activity on the part of the president and his team.

    it’s remarkable that some sitting members of Congress are no longer able to rule out whether the President of the United States engaged in a massive criminal conspiracy with a foreign adversary

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/15/gop-rep-drops-bomb-trump-wh-part-criminal-conspiracy-russia.html

  19. “Language evolves and now working the word ‘Hilarious’ in a response is popular.”
    It certainly does evolve quickly. “asshole” is fine but “sweetie” can now get you banned. Hilarious.

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Crispin Hull with some home truths for the Liberal Party.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/liberals-could-do-with-a-dose-of-robert-menzies-bigpicture-foresight-20170713-gxafum.html
    By Christmas, about 6000 red bikes tracked by GPS will be scattered throughout Sydney. That’s the ambitious target for Sydney’s first dockless bike-sharing service, Reddy Go, which launched in the central business district last week with 160 bikes for hire at $1.99 for half an hour.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/thousands-of-red-bikes-set-to-hit-sydneys-streets–and-footpaths-20170713-gxa9hg.html
    US officials interviewing refugees held in an Australian-run offshore detention centre left the facility abruptly, three detainees told Reuters on Saturday, throwing further doubt over a plan to resettle many of the detainees in America. The Yanks have reached their refugee intake limit.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-us-refugee-deal-again-in-jeopardy-as-officials-exit-nauru-20170715-gxc2lc.html
    Christopher Pyne says he wants Australia to become a major arms exporter on par with Britain, France and Germany and use exports to cement relationships with countries in volatile regions such as the Middle East.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/defence-industry-minister-christopher-pyne-wants-australia-to-become-major-arms-exporter-20170715-gxbv4m.html
    The three premiers who have their heads in the sand over plastic bags.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/plastic-bag-ban-australia-has-three-premiers-who-are-burying-their-heads-in-the-sand-20170715-gxbtmh.html
    Fraudsters are making fake safety certificates for building products, a Senate inquiry has been told. The inquiry into non-conforming building products has gathered pace after the fatal fire at the Grenfell Tower fire in London last month. Will the government blame the CFMEU for this disgrace?
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/dodgy-safety-certificates-rife-on-building-sites-senate-cladding-inquiry-told-20170713-gxaaw9.html
    New reporting rules seem to represent a big win for the campaign by the mining sector and conservative politicians to stifle environmental advocacy. Lenore Taylor writes that the letter has ominous implications. Canavan’s right in the middle of it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/15/governments-letter-to-conservation-groups-has-ominous-implications
    The NAIF was set up to allow the Coalition Government to pump billions of dollars of public money into Adani’s Galilee Basin coal mine and other coal mining projects writes former public servant Mark Zanker.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/northern-australia-infrastructure-fund-set-up-to-funnel-money-to-adani,10504
    Former Prime Minister Tony Blair says there’s a chance Britain won’t leave the European Union – and stopping Brexit is “necessary” to avoid severe economic damage.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/07/15/tony-blair-says-brexit-must-stopped/

  21. Section 2 . . .

    Stephen Koukoulas says that despite the turmoil within the Liberal Party and the unrelenting information in the polls showing Labor with a 6 or 8 point lead, the betting markets show Labor to be only luke warm favourites to win the next Federal election.
    https://thekouk.com/item/518-election-betting-labor-only-luke-warm-favourites.html
    Noise complaints have left a young Googong family without the use of their heater at night, after the council threatened to fine them $4000. Are there not standards for such appliances?
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/young-googong-family-could-face-4000-fine-for-using-their-heater-after-noise-complaints-20170714-gxbnv9.html
    The full spectrum of sex addiction.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/the-secret-lives-of-sex-addicts-with-the-phantom-diagnosis-20170713-gxaao8.html
    Addressing the Liberal National Party state convention in Brisbane, Turnbull has mounted a defence of coal-powered electricity, saying those who think the resource doesn’t have a future are “delusional”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-labels-coal-opponents-delusional-20170715-gxbyjw.html
    A toxic AFL culture has been exposed, with revelations some men in the office created a “Top 10” list of female employees they wanted to sleep with. Charming! I do hate “blokey” stuff. Google.
    /sport/afl/afls-toxic-culture-sleazy-top-10-list-ranked-women-by-looks/news-story/c3fb9426463b8e1673a553201e3ec467
    If Republicans do not wish to repeat the mistakes of the German conservatives of the 1930s, they had better find their courage – and their conservatism – fast writes a Yale professor. Trump is ushering in a dark new conservatism. An interesting essay.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/15/trumps-nostalgia-1930s-republicans
    Peter FitzSimons says the government should get its head around renewables. The ridiculous Matt Canavan gets a good serve.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-letters/peter-fitzsimons-government-needs-to-get-its-head-around-renewable-energy-20170714-gxbn81.html
    Imre Salusinszky separates the Sydney media into two camps.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/kaldasians-and-cunneenians-the-two-tribes-of-sydneys-media-20170714-gxbpaf.html
    A new style of “skill-based” slot machines is being investigated by Australian gambling authorities following their roll-out across some of the biggest casinos in the world. Another step downwards.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/nextgeneration-pokies-how-casinos-are-luring-millennials-with-skillbased-machines-20170714-gxbtaf.html

  22. Morning all. Thanks BK. Tony Fitzgerald lays out clearly why we need action to require ethical conduct against corruption at federal level. Certainly in my industry (transport infrastructure) I think lobbyist cash influencing how public dollars are soent has become a serious problem. I would love to see Shorten and Labor commit to Federal legislation on this issue before the next election. Labor is not as corrupt as the LNP, but its corruption level is not zero. And behaving unethically for a cause you believe in is still unethical. The slide down needs to stop.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-13/democracys-only-hope-is-for-politicians-to-stand-up/8701118

  23. BK
    The tenure of the AFL CEO is becoming increasingly untenable given what has happened in recent weeks. Simply not good enough.

  24. It appears the culture at the AFL is indeed toxic and a clean sweep is needed. A pity given the inroads made with women’s football this year.

  25. Good Morning

    In case its not been mentioned on the encryption thing. Apples next operating system is designed to be end to end encryption.

    So good luckTurnbull and Brandis in getting Apple to undo years of work on their new operating system coming in September.

  26. In the news today are warnings about the security risk posed by the bad guys getting hold of the NSA’s backdoor uses for mass surveillance.

    We have had two recent example WannaCry being the most well known

  27. On the attacks on the Labor governments for having scientifically based energy targets to keep Australia in the Paris agreement.

    Turnbull has done himself no favours calling those delusional. This has international media all over it. Thus even Canberra Press Gallery will report the truth not the usual balance stories.

  28. Overnight I watched a repeat of Vanstone on The Drum.
    Her opinion of Abbott? He (as her offsider – Secretary?) was the penalty she had to pay for being given a Ministry. She said wtte he was never a team player and always pursued his own objectives regardless of those around him.

    First time I have felt any sympathy for Mandy. 😉

  29. realDonaldTrump: I will be at the @USGA #USWomensOpen in Bedminster, NJ tomorrow. Big crowds expected & the women are playing great-should be very exciting!
    HamillHimself: Just don’t get too excited there, Grabby. twitter.com/realDonaldTrum…

  30. As a Brit, US healthcare astonishes me – it’s not a human right, but a privilege.
    The Yes Minister writer explains how his horror at how the US – and potentially the UK – treats the sick grew into the tale of a hospital run by a casino manager

    Britain is blindly lurching down the same calamitous path as the US. Successive governments have slowly dismantled the beautiful idea that healthcare should be free at the point of delivery. Now, amid much secrecy, 87% of Charing Cross Hospital has just been sold off in a real estate deal.

    The problem with running healthcare like a business is that patients are not customers. They don’t choose to be sick. But in the US, healthcare is not a human right, it’s a privilege. “People can’t have what they can’t afford,” explains Max. “That’s what got America into this economic mess – people wanting something for nothing. There’s no morality in that.” Is this Britain’s future too?

    While I was writing Samaritans, life began to imitate art, as it used to sometimes with Yes Minister. Gary Loveman, the CEO of a bankrupt Vegas casino, Caesar’s Palace, was appointed by Aetna, one of the US’s biggest insurance companies, to run its health insurance division. Donald Trump, once just a TV reality star and real-estate man with whom no US banks would deal because he never paid his bills (he still owes around $300m – £230m – to Deutsche Bank), suddenly became a serious presidential candidate. I had envisaged the story as an allegory for modern America – and then it came true. I hope that, like Yes Minister, people find it enlightening as well as entertaining. And scary too, so that they do something about it all, before it’s too late.

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/jul/14/attack-healthcare-policy-with-comedy-jonathan-lynn-yes-minister?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

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