This week’s reading of BludgerTrack, supplemented only by the usual weekly result from Essential Research, is another big load of nothing, the only movement being a gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Western Australia, balanced by a loss in Victoria. One Nation has bumped downwards for the second week in a row, but this is very likely a statistical artefact. BludgerTrack is making no effort to bias adjust for One Nation, which is recording stronger numbers from Newspoll (11% in the last poll) than Essential Research (down to 6% this week). Since Newspoll hasn’t reported for three weeks, Essential’s numbers are presently carrying greater weight. If the Newspoll that will presumably be out tonight or tomorrow is true to form, expect One Nation to tick back upwards on BludgerTrack next week. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
Also:
• Latika Bourke of Fairfax reveals that leaked nomination papers reveal the five contestants the Western Australian Liberal Senate vacancy of Chris Back, whose resignation took effect in the middle of last month. The front-runner out of an all male line-up is said to be Slade Brockman, a former staffer to local conservative heavyweight Mathias Cormann. Also on the list are David Barton, a physiotherapist; Gabi Ghasseb, a Lebanese-born and Bunbury-based businessman; and two entrants on the Liberals’ Battle of the Somme-length casualty list at the March state election: Michael Sutherland, former Speaker and member for the Mount Lawley, and Mark Lewis, former Agriculture Minister and upper house member for Mining and Pastoral region. Noting the absence of women, Bourke reports that Erin Watson-Lynn, a director of AsiaLink said to be aligned with Julie Bishop and the moderate tendency, was considering nominating but failed to find support.
• As the federal parliamentary term enters its second year, we’re beginning to hear the first murmurings about preselections for the next election. Tom McIlroy of The Canberra Times reports Liberal nominees for Eden-Monaro will include former Army combat engineer Nigel Catchlove, and that “international relations expert and Navy veteran Jerry Nockles is considering a tilt”. Nationals federal director Ben Hindmarsh says the party is considering fielding a candidate in the seat for the first time since 1993. State upper house MP Bronnie Taylor is mentioned as a possible contender, odd career move though that would be.
• With the retirement of Thomas George at the next state election, the Byron Shire Echo reports that the Nationals will conduct an open primary style “community preselection” to choose a new candidate in Lismore, which they very nearly lost to the Greens in 2015.
• The Australian Parliamentary Library brings us a review of last year’s election and a look at what would happen in the event that an early election required a mini-redistribution, both by Damon Muller.
• If you’ve ever been wondering what happened to content that used to be accessible on the website before the redesign removed the sidebar, you might find now an answer on my newly reupholstered personal website, pollbludger.net. At the very least you’ll be able to access the historical BludgerTrack charts, comment moderation guidelines and links to all my federal, state and territory election guides going back to 2004 (albeit that some of these have lost their formatting and are a bit of a dog’s breakfast). I hope to use this site a lot more in future for things the Crikey architecture can’t accommodate.
Davidwh:
He doesn’t figure these days anyway – most commenters just ignore him or scroll by him.
But in all seriousness, I think there’s more resemblance between Trump and Abbott than Trump and Rudd. Abbott took over the Liberal leadership and used it as a personal platform to boost himself, just as Trump is doing. And yes, isn’t it great Uhlmann is calling out Trump, but where was he when Abbott was traipsing about the country playing at PM, even as LOTO? My recollection is that Uhlmann was locked an loaded behind the then media narrative of ‘gee, isn’t Tone a great opposition leader?’
I’ve been captivated by The Handmaid’s Tale. And this may sound silly, but while the rational part of me knows it’s a fictional tale, there is a part of me casting eyes to the US, and particularly to the Republican controlled Congress, and Republican-dominated state legislatures and wondering whether something similar couldn’t happen there today. I mean the GOP is to religious fundamentalist extremism what 7-Eleven is to cheap illegal labour in Oz.
Uhlmann prob still pines for a B.A. Santamaria.
Darwin’s Beer Can Regatta today.
I just checked the weather there: 28C 57% Humidity.
Nice for a swim.
I seem to recall that some years ago John Howard at his first Pacific Islands Leader’s conference was caught being at a loss and caught looking very lonely in a corner of the room.
It can happen to the very best of them!
CT, the crocs and sharks think so too.
CTar1
Lordy how I miss those days in Darwin. Especially at this time of year now that I am once again just another “Bloody Southerner” 🙁 🙂
Where does lap dog Australia fit in the new US-Russia allied world view?
“In very concrete terms, through speech and action, the president signaled a willingness to align the United States with Vladimir Putin’s worldview, and took steps to advance this realignment. He endorsed, nearly in its totality, the narrative the Russian leader has worked so meticulously to construct.”
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/07/07/trump-handed-putin-a-stunning-victory-215353
Fess you may be correct. I’ll have to consider further.
Ch 7 news is on the Pell case in Singapore. They’ve given him a very mild dose of the tabloid TV paparazzi treatment. No word on when he will be back in Oz.
Swamprat
What a load of crap article. FMD, take this e.g. , unlike US policies and actions in the ME ?
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/policy/foreign-affairs/chinese-buyer-of-darwin-port-struggles-to-pay-interest-and-heavily-in-debt-20170704-gx4ak0#ixzz4mJv6zbaP
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It’d be great if this takes off. The current Labor and Green parties have been a huge disappointment.
http://www.surveygizmo.com/s3/3671329/A-People-s-Manifesto?t=W8ykBtxjz&utm_campaign=Australia_s_Bernie_Sanders&utm_content=18861&utm_medium=email&utm_source=blast
IoM
Elon Musk created PayPal and sold it to Google for billions
Wiki says Paypal was sold to Ebay for US1.5 billion, of which Musk, holding 11%, collected $165 million of which he put about 100 million into SpaceX.
I recall one interview with him where he said that after several (not sure, maybe four or five) failures of the Falcon 9 rocket, in his quest for a workable launcher*, he said he had enough dosh left for one, and only one, more try. Which worked.
* His whole business ethic is efficiency, however small the percent. The obvious point he makes with rockets is that rockets into space will never be cost efficient if they remain single use, as neither would an aeroplane, or whatever, down to a car. To watch his Falcon 9s re-land on the drone ship (called Of Course I Still Love You) is mindbogglingly amazing. I posted it at the time. The first relaunch was in March this year.
“I know, you know, everyone knows …”
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40546621
Uhlman has probably had the mother of all reality checks in Hamburg.
Like most of the Australian right wing echo chamber he would have had next to no idea what a walking, talking disaster Trump is for the United States and for the West and hence for Australia.
A week in Hamburg talking to real people from dozens of countries has probably been a distressing experience for Uhlman.
Give Uhlman his due, he has delivered the most swingeing real world assessment of Trump that I have seen from the Oz MSM.
For once he has not been sucked into the standard MSM v Trump pyschodrama squabble route.
Uhlmann has instant delivered a chapter and verse assessment of the terrible substantive damage Trump is doing.
Good on him.
confessions @ #202 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 5:52 pm
Please, Oh Please may providence keep this book and TV series a secret from the IPA and Liberal Party.
☕ for me. Nothing for IPA and Liberal Party.
After G20, Turnbull is again forced to confront LNP self-destruction over SSM:
Schadenfreude …Lol!!..
“Philip Morris ordered to pay Australia millions in costs for plain packaging case..”
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/philip-morris-ordered-to-pay-australia-millions-in-costs-for-plain-packaging-case-20170709-gx7mv5.html
markjs @ #219 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 7:09 pm
I suppose they’ll have to cough it up.
Davidwh:
Your ‘comrade’ also always only attacks women commenters, never men so I’m sure you’ll be fine. #misogyny101
One thing that’s different about the Trump Presidency is it’s total lack of dignity and how it reflects on the US Nation. Tony Abbott was bad enough at our G20, but this guy is like a combination of dodgy used car salesman, clown and petulant adolescent. It must be hugely embarrassing for non-Trump supporting Americans. There have been bad Presidents before – incompetents, crooks – but this total lack of dignity seems to be unique.
BK..
..very droll 🙂
Really funny to come online and find Confessions pursuing her new favourite obsession, me, and spreading lies and bs.
So what’s going to happen when enough libs cross the floor to have SSM debated and then passed? Will the RWNJs blame Malcolm? Will they bring him down.
Had a great afternoon having a swim with my two youngest granddaughters and their dad.
Amazing diversity of people at the pool and all having a great time with a lot of parents doing the right things and getting kids used to the water and taking the first steps to learning to swim. Nice to be out in the real world doing the things that matter at times 😀
That will never happen.
Boerwar
Concur with you re Ulhmann and his assessment of Trump.
It was clear concise and spot on
If anything happens on SSM it will be because cross benchers take action. The Libs are hamstrung on the issue and won’t proceed.
“Concur with you re Ulhmann and his assessment of Trump.
It was clear concise and spot on”
As someone noted, Uhlmann is only now saying what most other people have been saying for ages. Big deal.
“Had he really gone to all the trouble of trying to rig the US presidential election for this? Maybe he would have been better off with Hillary after all. At least you could have an intelligent conversation with her.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/07/upper-hand-trump-and-putins-body-language-shows-whos-the-boss
In the pool in Melbourne in July?
S777 – Indoor heated, no doubt.
steve777 @ #232 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 7:54 pm
I have been quite surprised at the number of heated pools, their quality and popularity.
This one was at Cranbourne East http://www.caseyrace.ymca.org.au/.
Fantastic for kids – all sorts of novelty things including a huge bucket which periodically tipped a load of water over kids beneath it to their squeals of delight.
There is a big water slide which only allows kids over 10 so the girls had to watch while their dad and I had a go. 😀
Frednk
Ah the “body language” experts. Up there with phrenologists, astrologists and sadly …………economists 😉
I wonder if there will be any takers on the LNP backbench for Smith’s bill….will they exercise their conscience?
The Right may find they are not the only ones who can take advantage of the fine numbers in the House.
Bemused – At the ‘Off Peak Senior’ rate? {grin}
https://mobile.twitter.com/roweafr/status/883964148224204801/photo/1
Back from beach from final swim to be greeted by David Rowe latest
Quite amusing. Ulhmann recognises something as obvious as dog’s balls, and is to be applauded?
Who says Labour doesn’t help the Liberals pay back the bulging debt left by Hockeynomics? Wayne Swan’s competence just netted them $50 million.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/philip-morris-ordered-to-pay-australia-millions-in-costs-for-plain-packaging-case-20170709-gx7mv5.html
ctar1 @ #237 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 8:10 pm
Cheapest option (just) was a ‘family ticket’.
And to get off-peak you have to be there when no normal person would be.
Excellent value really.
adrian @ #239 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 8:14 pm
It may be he is experiencing an epiphany.
May it be permanent.
On The Handmaid’s Tale, the author Margaret Atwood said at the time, that while it was fiction, every plot element relating to women in the story were things that were actually done to real women in one society or another.
It is not that Uhlmann has recognised it. Hell even a simpleton like me knew what Trump was all about. It is that Ulhmann has actually said it in his capacity as a commentator. Something of a rarity up until now
Confessions @7.13….
Not so much…. he’s an equal opportunity insult-emitting device….
For me Elizabeth Moss will always be President Jed Bartlet’s daughter.
briefly @ #245 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 8:29 pm
And an equal opportunity recipient of insults and abuse it should be noted.
I have been quite surprised at the number of heated pools, their quality and popularity.
Of course. It’s been a while since I’ve been to a public pool. Bankstown baths was one of my favourite hangouts half a century ago. Not heated in those days of course.
I’m now officially a self-funded retiree and Grey Nomad. Not getting up tomorrow morning and going to work will be a new experience.
steve777 @ #248 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 8:44 pm
Hahaha… mine too. But gone now.
To do some training during winter I had to travel an inordinate distance.