This week’s reading of BludgerTrack, supplemented only by the usual weekly result from Essential Research, is another big load of nothing, the only movement being a gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Western Australia, balanced by a loss in Victoria. One Nation has bumped downwards for the second week in a row, but this is very likely a statistical artefact. BludgerTrack is making no effort to bias adjust for One Nation, which is recording stronger numbers from Newspoll (11% in the last poll) than Essential Research (down to 6% this week). Since Newspoll hasn’t reported for three weeks, Essential’s numbers are presently carrying greater weight. If the Newspoll that will presumably be out tonight or tomorrow is true to form, expect One Nation to tick back upwards on BludgerTrack next week. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
Also:
• Latika Bourke of Fairfax reveals that leaked nomination papers reveal the five contestants the Western Australian Liberal Senate vacancy of Chris Back, whose resignation took effect in the middle of last month. The front-runner out of an all male line-up is said to be Slade Brockman, a former staffer to local conservative heavyweight Mathias Cormann. Also on the list are David Barton, a physiotherapist; Gabi Ghasseb, a Lebanese-born and Bunbury-based businessman; and two entrants on the Liberals’ Battle of the Somme-length casualty list at the March state election: Michael Sutherland, former Speaker and member for the Mount Lawley, and Mark Lewis, former Agriculture Minister and upper house member for Mining and Pastoral region. Noting the absence of women, Bourke reports that Erin Watson-Lynn, a director of AsiaLink said to be aligned with Julie Bishop and the moderate tendency, was considering nominating but failed to find support.
• As the federal parliamentary term enters its second year, we’re beginning to hear the first murmurings about preselections for the next election. Tom McIlroy of The Canberra Times reports Liberal nominees for Eden-Monaro will include former Army combat engineer Nigel Catchlove, and that “international relations expert and Navy veteran Jerry Nockles is considering a tilt”. Nationals federal director Ben Hindmarsh says the party is considering fielding a candidate in the seat for the first time since 1993. State upper house MP Bronnie Taylor is mentioned as a possible contender, odd career move though that would be.
• With the retirement of Thomas George at the next state election, the Byron Shire Echo reports that the Nationals will conduct an open primary style “community preselection” to choose a new candidate in Lismore, which they very nearly lost to the Greens in 2015.
• The Australian Parliamentary Library brings us a review of last year’s election and a look at what would happen in the event that an early election required a mini-redistribution, both by Damon Muller.
• If you’ve ever been wondering what happened to content that used to be accessible on the website before the redesign removed the sidebar, you might find now an answer on my newly reupholstered personal website, pollbludger.net. At the very least you’ll be able to access the historical BludgerTrack charts, comment moderation guidelines and links to all my federal, state and territory election guides going back to 2004 (albeit that some of these have lost their formatting and are a bit of a dog’s breakfast). I hope to use this site a lot more in future for things the Crikey architecture can’t accommodate.
The ABC has treated reporting of AGW as a balance thing for years now. The ABC treats reporting of AGW and its impacts as something to be balanced by giving equal weight to the denialist side, as if the denialist viewpoint is anywhere near mainstream or scientific reality.
Vogon Poet
You need to get back to basic principles on this. The electricity market is exactly that – a market. Generators and storers of electricity – such as the owners of the 100MW battery – bid to supply the commodity at 5 minute intervals. The more sources of supply, the more competition. It is true that regulations can complicate the issue, resulting in market distortions, but that is the basic principle.
As the 100MW battery is a new source of supply, it will have some downward effect on prices.
Don’t follow Dr Dargaville’s logic. The only way they can “make money” is to bid into the market – unless they have some special contract – perhaps covering outages – that entitles them to a premium. If so it should be explained.
CTar1
I don’t know for sure, but given that the deal announced was between the SA gov’t, Tesla and the French company supplying the connections between the power source (wind, I think), the battery and the grid, presumably it would be the State that owned the battery and connections. Also Musk saying it would be functional within 100 days, or it was free says someone is paying.
Gt
I haven’t watched it yet. Probally will later.
If she talked about G20 ‘outcomes’ as in what was in the final communique then it could only have been recorded sometime earlier today – the meeting was held on 7 & 8th ‘Hamburg time’.
ML
Yep, I just wondered who.
‘fess
I’m not sure what gets reported or commented on your local ABC radio, but here in Melbourne, both Jon Faine and Raf Epstein regularly challenge people taking climate change denier positions.
AndrewBGreene: White House staff frantically googling “Australian Broadcasting Corporation”? twitter.com/TrendsDC/statu…
Well said Briefly. The G20 has now divided into the G19 and the S1.
Sorry that Greene tweet is about the Uhlmann piece on Trump.
CTar1
I was extrapolating from the deal being announced by SA gov’t, Tesla and the French company, so could be wrong of course.
You make it sound like he’ll be nailed to a cross on a Friday. More likely if found guilty he’ll be, for his own safety, kept in isolation at a comfortable prison.
Boerwar
Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 11:59 am
B
The prospects of a significant lose lose continue to grow.
Looks like it, Boer. The incompetence of the English is really astonishing.
Oh well, them’s the breaks.
That’s what happens when you get into heavy duty god bothering.
ML:
That’s good to hear. I wish the ABC nationally would take a more assertive position however.
prettyone
Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 11:35 am
Bill Shorten’s problem and not getting enough time on ABC and Fairfax and other media is due to the top of the line journos there admiring and feeling comfortable with Malcolm Turnbull. ….
I think it is more a case of Bill Shorten taking Napoleon Bonaparte advice to heart. “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. “
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/09/penny-wong-accuses-turnbull-of-failing-to-stand-up-to-trump-on-climate-and-trade?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=234210&subid=22688624&CMP=ema_632
‘fess
It’s my view that ABC TV is the most craven and has taken major hits to its science programming.
ABC local radio has a very wide reach, up into NSW and down into Tasmania. They are also followed online quite a bit as they’ve had callers from Japan, for example.
lizzie
I watched Insiders this morning as I knew Penny Wong would be on. She is just so impressive. Articulate, focussed, can see a gotcha from a mile off.
Trog Sorrenson
Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 12:21 pm
The question is “Who needs to store electricity?” The answer is that both producers of electricity and its consumers have such a need. This is certainly the case for producers, who frequently have the capacity to deliver more electricity than can be immediately consumed. They will benefit from storing (preserving) electricity that would otherwise not be produced or would be wasted.
This is an obvious advantage to producers whose supply capacity fluctuates or who are otherwise prone to both over-producing and under-producing. We could also say this applies to renewable sources as well as to coal-using generators, who cannot economically shut down their boilers during periods of low demand. Of course, the coal-burners would rather just combust coal and add the cost onto the price of the electricity sold that than invest in storage. This might change.
Quite obviously, consumers can draw on stored electricity when the supply for immediate use is insufficient. For them, the offered price of stored electricity will depend in the end on the storage capacity of the system, competing demand, and the ability of generators to add new stocks as existing stores are depleted.
Up to the point of saturation, every additional unit of storage capacity also adds to the market value of “excess” generation capacity. That is, investments in solar and wind become more valuable as electricity preserving techniques (stores) are created. So those who have access to unlimited and cheap electricity have direct incentives to invest in storage.
As the economies of scale propel increasing investments in generators, those generators will seek better and cheaper storage opportunities. Investment in storage will increase the rates of return derived from generation. Time is up for the hydrocarbon system.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/09/privatisation-wont-make-sydneys-buses-run-on-time-and-expect-new-problems?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=234210&subid=22688624&CMP=ema_632
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/price-reduced-for-quick-sale-the-post-office-that-could-topple-turnbull-20170709-gx7iu4.html
Briefly
Good points re storage.
Also people treat coal and gas fired power stations as reliable, when in fact these are a lot more prone to failure than solar panels or wind mills, particularly on hot days. This will become more of an issue as these “assets” get older and closer to retirement.
Maybe we should insist on coal and gas fired power stations having battery storage!
trog sorrenson @ #172 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 1:29 pm
Gosh, you do spout some unmitigated rubbish sometimes!
Failure to generate by wind and solar is predictable. Failure of a gas or coal generator is not.
trog sorrenson @ #174 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 1:48 pm
Oh really? The BOM seems to struggle with it. Perhaps you should tell them your secret.
Guytaur
Now the business has been listed for sale with a price of $450,000. But Dr Gillespie’s office says his tenant has made the private decision to sell up and he did not request it or have any conversations with them about the move.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/price-reduced-for-quick-sale-the-post-office-that-could-topple-turnbull-20170709-gx7iu4.html
Fancy that. What a coincidence. Dierdre Chambers.
“How is the SA battery going to make electricity prices cheaper, seems to be more of a reliability issue to me.”
The battery is set to deliver power to the grid when electricity prices reach a certain threshold so hopefully we won’t have to pay really exorbitant peak power rates.
Then again it might make our power bills higher because we might actually always have power. You don’t have to pay for power when there is a blackout. 😀
diogenes @ #177 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 2:41 pm
Yes, but you do have to pay the costs of raising those additional children! : )
P1
Weatherill said there was a bit of a spike in births 9 months after our 24 hour power blackout.
We need more young people in SA.
We need MORE blackouts, not less!
cud chewer @ #1504 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 1:10 am
The solar installer that we work with has hit issues on a number of buildings where the roof structure can’t support the weight plus wind loading of panels without significant structural alterations. I’ve not yet seen public ground mounted solar used as car park cover, though with PV prices continuing to fall it can’t be far away.
player one @ #75 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 10:28 am
You clearly have absolutely no idea just how much maintenance a coal power plant takes.
Disclosure of interest:
I work for a company with a maintenance contract at Muja in WA (among other coal plants) and am actively involved in that contract.
vogon poet @ #97 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 10:56 am
It won’t. The price of the electricity is 20% – 25% of the cost of “electricity” supplied. If you want to really make a difference you need to address the grid charges (50%) and the capacity charges (20% – 25%) in addition to the price of the electricity.
trog sorrenson @ #101 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 11:03 am
I hadn’t thought about it that way Trog. If the battery displaces the need to have expensive gas idling, then, in theory, the battery should drop the capacity charge, and therefore reduce “electricity” prices.
trog sorrenson @ #106 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 11:14 am
Well Trog, when you know where the bodies are buried it puts you in a strong position to “negotiate” patronage and advancement.
player one @ #140 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 12:02 pm
I’d go further.
If he’s well enough to sustain the pressures of being the CFO of the entire Catholic Church without suffering debilitating ill effects then he’s more than well enough to travel to Australia (or anywhere else) to face trial on criminal charges.
vogon poet @ #148 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 12:10 pm
Dr Dargaville clearly doesn’t know much about electricity markets if he thinks the battery won’t make money. If the battery is intended to keep the lights on during peak grid events (like “keep the lights on during a 45-degree day in Adelaide”) then it would be paid for by the capacity mechanism, not paid for by selling the electricity it had stored.
grimace @ #181 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 3:36 pm
Which is why you really should use LCOE to compare the costs of different sources of electricity – anything else is an over-simplification.
It’s not just the one koala. The way in which the Vic govt. has given in to the logging industry is shameful.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/garrett-faces-brunswick-backlash-over-native-forest-logging-20170708-gx7anw.html
Don’t forget batteries from China:
How did Elon Musk make his billions? I can’t tell from looking online.
wiki says be is currently a citizen of South Africa, Canada and the US. I thought the US made you give up your other citizenships to become a US citizen.
Dio:
Elon Musk created PayPal and sold it to Google for billions.
Chris Ullman doesn’t seem to be totally enamored with Trump.
Speaking on Sunday from the G20 conference in Hamburg, Uhlmann said Trump had shown “no desire and no capacity to lead the world” and was himself “the biggest threat to the values of the west”.
“We learned that Donald Trump has pressed fast-forward on the decline of the United States as a global leader. He managed to isolate his nation, to confuse and alienate his allies and to diminish America.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jul/09/biggest-threat-to-the-west-australian-journalist-demolishes-trump-after-g20
“[He is] a man who barks out bile in 140 characters, who wastes his precious days as president at war with the west’s institutions like the judiciary, independent government agencies and the free press.”
Trump reminds me of a dumbed down version of Rudd. It’s all about me, look at me, look at me.
At least Rudd used big words few people understood the meanings of.
Dio – Uhlmann would like a ‘standard’ variety RW Republican.
Trump too unpredictable.
Dio:
I believe he created Paypal.
Davidwh:
You’re going straight to purgatory for having the temerity for taking Rudd’s name in vain!
I can handle my old comrade Fess
“Uhlmann would like a ‘standard’ variety RW Republican”
I’m sure Chris will be happy if Mike Pence takes over. Just his kind of guy.