BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Another static reading of the BludgerTrack opinion poll aggregate, plus some preselection news.

This week’s reading of BludgerTrack, supplemented only by the usual weekly result from Essential Research, is another big load of nothing, the only movement being a gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Western Australia, balanced by a loss in Victoria. One Nation has bumped downwards for the second week in a row, but this is very likely a statistical artefact. BludgerTrack is making no effort to bias adjust for One Nation, which is recording stronger numbers from Newspoll (11% in the last poll) than Essential Research (down to 6% this week). Since Newspoll hasn’t reported for three weeks, Essential’s numbers are presently carrying greater weight. If the Newspoll that will presumably be out tonight or tomorrow is true to form, expect One Nation to tick back upwards on BludgerTrack next week. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Also:

• Latika Bourke of Fairfax reveals that leaked nomination papers reveal the five contestants the Western Australian Liberal Senate vacancy of Chris Back, whose resignation took effect in the middle of last month. The front-runner out of an all male line-up is said to be Slade Brockman, a former staffer to local conservative heavyweight Mathias Cormann. Also on the list are David Barton, a physiotherapist; Gabi Ghasseb, a Lebanese-born and Bunbury-based businessman; and two entrants on the Liberals’ Battle of the Somme-length casualty list at the March state election: Michael Sutherland, former Speaker and member for the Mount Lawley, and Mark Lewis, former Agriculture Minister and upper house member for Mining and Pastoral region. Noting the absence of women, Bourke reports that Erin Watson-Lynn, a director of AsiaLink said to be aligned with Julie Bishop and the moderate tendency, was considering nominating but failed to find support.

• As the federal parliamentary term enters its second year, we’re beginning to hear the first murmurings about preselections for the next election. Tom McIlroy of The Canberra Times reports Liberal nominees for Eden-Monaro will include former Army combat engineer Nigel Catchlove, and that “international relations expert and Navy veteran Jerry Nockles is considering a tilt”. Nationals federal director Ben Hindmarsh says the party is considering fielding a candidate in the seat for the first time since 1993. State upper house MP Bronnie Taylor is mentioned as a possible contender, odd career move though that would be.

• With the retirement of Thomas George at the next state election, the Byron Shire Echo reports that the Nationals will conduct an open primary style “community preselection” to choose a new candidate in Lismore, which they very nearly lost to the Greens in 2015.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library brings us a review of last year’s election and a look at what would happen in the event that an early election required a mini-redistribution, both by Damon Muller.

• If you’ve ever been wondering what happened to content that used to be accessible on the website before the redesign removed the sidebar, you might find now an answer on my newly reupholstered personal website, pollbludger.net. At the very least you’ll be able to access the historical BludgerTrack charts, comment moderation guidelines and links to all my federal, state and territory election guides going back to 2004 (albeit that some of these have lost their formatting and are a bit of a dog’s breakfast). I hope to use this site a lot more in future for things the Crikey architecture can’t accommodate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

266 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  1. Just a reminder for ABC and Michelle Guthrie apologists and sundry other frogs who haven’t noticed the rise in temperature.

    The ABC has treated reporting of AGW as a balance thing for years now. The ABC treats reporting of AGW and its impacts as something to be balanced by giving equal weight to the denialist side, as if the denialist viewpoint is anywhere near mainstream or scientific reality.

  2. Vogon Poet
    You need to get back to basic principles on this. The electricity market is exactly that – a market. Generators and storers of electricity – such as the owners of the 100MW battery – bid to supply the commodity at 5 minute intervals. The more sources of supply, the more competition. It is true that regulations can complicate the issue, resulting in market distortions, but that is the basic principle.
    As the 100MW battery is a new source of supply, it will have some downward effect on prices.

    Dr Dargaville believes the system may in fact increase energy bills if it is privately owned, because whoever owned it would need to find a way to make money on their investment

    Don’t follow Dr Dargaville’s logic. The only way they can “make money” is to bid into the market – unless they have some special contract – perhaps covering outages – that entitles them to a premium. If so it should be explained.

  3. CTar1
    I don’t know for sure, but given that the deal announced was between the SA gov’t, Tesla and the French company supplying the connections between the power source (wind, I think), the battery and the grid, presumably it would be the State that owned the battery and connections. Also Musk saying it would be functional within 100 days, or it was free says someone is paying.

  4. Gt

    how could Wong comment on Trump’s G20 outcomes

    I haven’t watched it yet. Probally will later.

    If she talked about G20 ‘outcomes’ as in what was in the final communique then it could only have been recorded sometime earlier today – the meeting was held on 7 & 8th ‘Hamburg time’.

  5. ML

    Also Musk saying it would be functional within 100 days, or it was free says someone is paying.

    Yep, I just wondered who.

  6. ‘fess
    I’m not sure what gets reported or commented on your local ABC radio, but here in Melbourne, both Jon Faine and Raf Epstein regularly challenge people taking climate change denier positions.

  7. AndrewBGreene: White House staff frantically googling “Australian Broadcasting Corporation”? twitter.com/TrendsDC/statu…

  10. CTar1
    I was extrapolating from the deal being announced by SA gov’t, Tesla and the French company, so could be wrong of course.

  11. I doubt he will get a fair trial, as there is a book on sale outlining how he raped or molested some boys in a Vestry back around 40 odd years ago. To me, I think he will be found guilty so that he becomes the focus for punishment of all sex crimes against children by Catholic priests from eons ago. Very unfair, but my thinking after reading the media reports is that is what will happen. He is to be offered up, so to speak, so that all victims and from decades ago, get closure.

    You make it sound like he’ll be nailed to a cross on a Friday. More likely if found guilty he’ll be, for his own safety, kept in isolation at a comfortable prison.

  12. Boerwar
    Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 11:59 am
    B
    The prospects of a significant lose lose continue to grow.

    Looks like it, Boer. The incompetence of the English is really astonishing.

  13. He is to be offered up, so to speak, so that all victims and from decades ago, get closure.

    Oh well, them’s the breaks.
    That’s what happens when you get into heavy duty god bothering.


  15. prettyone
    Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 11:35 am

    Bill Shorten’s problem and not getting enough time on ABC and Fairfax and other media is due to the top of the line journos there admiring and feeling comfortable with Malcolm Turnbull. ….

    I think it is more a case of Bill Shorten taking Napoleon Bonaparte advice to heart. “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. “

  16. Wong criticised Turnbull for what described as his inability to raise issues of difference with Donald Trump.

    “Australia’s national interest does require us to engage with the US assertively, energetically,” Wong told the ABC’s Insiders program on Sunday. “Where there are issues, we ought be clear about them and Malcolm Turnbull’s problem is that he hasn’t known whether to glide over difference, be upfront, or say anything.

    “He hasn’t asserted himself clearly in how he wants to deal with the Trump administration.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/09/penny-wong-accuses-turnbull-of-failing-to-stand-up-to-trump-on-climate-and-trade?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=234210&subid=22688624&CMP=ema_632

  17. ‘fess
    It’s my view that ABC TV is the most craven and has taken major hits to its science programming.
    ABC local radio has a very wide reach, up into NSW and down into Tasmania. They are also followed online quite a bit as they’ve had callers from Japan, for example.

  18. lizzie
    I watched Insiders this morning as I knew Penny Wong would be on. She is just so impressive. Articulate, focussed, can see a gotcha from a mile off.

  19. Trog Sorrenson
    Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 12:21 pm

    The question is “Who needs to store electricity?” The answer is that both producers of electricity and its consumers have such a need. This is certainly the case for producers, who frequently have the capacity to deliver more electricity than can be immediately consumed. They will benefit from storing (preserving) electricity that would otherwise not be produced or would be wasted.

    This is an obvious advantage to producers whose supply capacity fluctuates or who are otherwise prone to both over-producing and under-producing. We could also say this applies to renewable sources as well as to coal-using generators, who cannot economically shut down their boilers during periods of low demand. Of course, the coal-burners would rather just combust coal and add the cost onto the price of the electricity sold that than invest in storage. This might change.

    Quite obviously, consumers can draw on stored electricity when the supply for immediate use is insufficient. For them, the offered price of stored electricity will depend in the end on the storage capacity of the system, competing demand, and the ability of generators to add new stocks as existing stores are depleted.

    Up to the point of saturation, every additional unit of storage capacity also adds to the market value of “excess” generation capacity. That is, investments in solar and wind become more valuable as electricity preserving techniques (stores) are created. So those who have access to unlimited and cheap electricity have direct incentives to invest in storage.

    As the economies of scale propel increasing investments in generators, those generators will seek better and cheaper storage opportunities. Investment in storage will increase the rates of return derived from generation. Time is up for the hydrocarbon system.

  20. In the UK, the privatisation of bus services has become a source of widespread and justified disgruntlement leading to chronic delays, “virtually no evening travel”, old “clapped-out buses”, infrequency, poor punctuality and extortionate prices.

    Sydney bus drivers defy court orders to continue strike over privatisation
    Read more
    No one should be surprised. Private bus operators put profit before people. To make money, they’ll close down unprofitable routes, remove stops and put off maintenance. Children, the elderly and poor people without cars will be the ones left stranded.

    The impact of this in the UK has been a fall of 50% in bus trips. That is not more people staying at home or walking – that is more people on the road.

    Therein lies the bizarre logic of the New South Wales Liberals. Privatisation as a solution to buses being delayed in traffic will actually worsen the traffic buses are stuck in.

    The “complaints” argument was merely a ruse. The Liberals believe business should run all our services – from electricity to hospitals to transport.

    Rightly, many in the government are trying to find wisdom behind what’s happening. Bus drivers and the people of Sydney already know the answer.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/09/privatisation-wont-make-sydneys-buses-run-on-time-and-expect-new-problems?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=234210&subid=22688624&CMP=ema_632

  22. Briefly
    Good points re storage.
    Also people treat coal and gas fired power stations as reliable, when in fact these are a lot more prone to failure than solar panels or wind mills, particularly on hot days. This will become more of an issue as these “assets” get older and closer to retirement.
    Maybe we should insist on coal and gas fired power stations having battery storage!

  27. “How is the SA battery going to make electricity prices cheaper, seems to be more of a reliability issue to me.”
    The battery is set to deliver power to the grid when electricity prices reach a certain threshold so hopefully we won’t have to pay really exorbitant peak power rates.
    Then again it might make our power bills higher because we might actually always have power. You don’t have to pay for power when there is a blackout. 😀

  29. P1
    Weatherill said there was a bit of a spike in births 9 months after our 24 hour power blackout.
    We need more young people in SA.
    We need MORE blackouts, not less!

  30. cud chewer @ #1504 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 1:10 am

    Grimace most people are only going to use a small fraction of their EV’s battery capacity so its not as big a deal as you’d think. What’s going to be interesting is how the market for daytime charging (while at work) develops. A lot of good reasons for solar on shopping center and office roofs.

    The solar installer that we work with has hit issues on a number of buildings where the roof structure can’t support the weight plus wind loading of panels without significant structural alterations. I’ve not yet seen public ground mounted solar used as car park cover, though with PV prices continuing to fall it can’t be far away.

  31. player one @ #75 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 10:28 am

    socrates @ #64 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 9:54 am

    I admit I over simplified things. But it is still clear that a combined wind-solar plant with battery storage is now cheaper than the whole of life cost of a coal plant of similar capacity.

    I was also over-simplifying, of course. I didn’t mention that you will need to replace the entire set of batteries two or three times over the lifetime of one actual generation plant. Not to mention the wind turbines or solar cells.

    You clearly have absolutely no idea just how much maintenance a coal power plant takes.

    Disclosure of interest:
    I work for a company with a maintenance contract at Muja in WA (among other coal plants) and am actively involved in that contract.

  32. vogon poet @ #97 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 10:56 am

    How is the SA battery going to make electricity prices cheaper, seems to be more of a reliability issue to me.

    It won’t. The price of the electricity is 20% – 25% of the cost of “electricity” supplied. If you want to really make a difference you need to address the grid charges (50%) and the capacity charges (20% – 25%) in addition to the price of the electricity.

  33. trog sorrenson @ #101 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 11:03 am

    Vogon Poet

    How is the SA battery going to make electricity prices cheaper, seems to be more of a reliability issue to me.

    To some extent it reduces the need to have expensive gas idling in the background.
    For example: The SA government is now mandating gas be turned on when wind power generation exceeds a certain percentage. This is wasteful, and means that consumers cannot benefit from the lower prices of energy generated at this time.
    With the 100MW battery installed, they can start to wind this regulation back.
    Here is a detailed explanation:
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/new-back-up-rule-means-end-of-cheap-wind-power-in-south-australia-60119/
    For full effect we need more battery storage and changes to the market rules.

    I hadn’t thought about it that way Trog. If the battery displaces the need to have expensive gas idling, then, in theory, the battery should drop the capacity charge, and therefore reduce “electricity” prices.

  34. trog sorrenson @ #106 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 11:14 am

    Prettyone

    I think the only thing George Pell is guilty of is being a coldish/detached type personality and not understanding the suffering of sex abuse victims in the beginning, and could not respond with empathy.

    I thought empathy and concern for your fellow man were supposed to be at the heart of Christianity. You know, Jesus and all that stuff.
    If so, how come the fucker rose to such prominence in the Australian church?

    Well Trog, when you know where the bodies are buried it puts you in a strong position to “negotiate” patronage and advancement.

  35. player one @ #140 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 12:02 pm

    itzadream @ #120 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 11:37 am

    The continual bleating about Pell not being able to get a fair trial reeks of nothing more than the nagging fear that he will be found guilty.

    If Pell is well enough to holiday in Singapore, perhaps he could have his trial there.
    I believe they still have the death penalty.

    I’d go further.

    If he’s well enough to sustain the pressures of being the CFO of the entire Catholic Church without suffering debilitating ill effects then he’s more than well enough to travel to Australia (or anywhere else) to face trial on criminal charges.

  36. vogon poet @ #148 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 12:10 pm

    Following from CT’s points, from the article linked by GT :
    “Dr Dargaville believes the system may in fact increase energy bills if it is privately owned, because whoever owned it would need to find a way to make money on their investment. The battery station would be unlikely to generate significant profit by itself, he said.
    “It’s not designed to save consumers money on their bills – it’s designed to help keep the lights on during a 45-degree day in Adelaide.”

    Dr Dargaville clearly doesn’t know much about electricity markets if he thinks the battery won’t make money. If the battery is intended to keep the lights on during peak grid events (like “keep the lights on during a 45-degree day in Adelaide”) then it would be paid for by the capacity mechanism, not paid for by selling the electricity it had stored.

  38. …the push for a Great Forest National Park will continue to be an issue for the government until it is addressed. Anger over the lack of action intensified in recent weeks, after a dead koala was found in a VicForests logging coupe that was also home to another threatened species: the Greater Glider possum.

    It’s not just the one koala. The way in which the Vic govt. has given in to the logging industry is shameful.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/garrett-faces-brunswick-backlash-over-native-forest-logging-20170708-gx7anw.html

  39. Don’t forget batteries from China:

    In 2018, Tesla will complete its Nevada Gigafactory—the biggest battery factory the world has ever seen. But hot on Elon Musk’s heels are several Chinese who plan to provide almost 3.5 times more gigawatt-hours of battery cells a year than the Gigafactory by 2021, according to Bloomberg.

    The Gigafactory expects to produce more lithium ion batteries annually than were produced worldwide in 2013 according to the Tesla website. The lithium ion batteries, most commonly used in personal electronic devices, will become essential as electric cars and renewable energy plants take over.

    China already makes up 55% of global lithium-ion battery production according to Bloomberg, and by 2021 they are expected to hold 65% of all production. As renewable sources like wind and solar outpace coal, China has been pushing hard for clean energy.

    http://fortune.com/2017/06/28/elon-musk-china-battery/

  41. wiki says be is currently a citizen of South Africa, Canada and the US. I thought the US made you give up your other citizenships to become a US citizen.

  43. Chris Ullman doesn’t seem to be totally enamored with Trump.
    Speaking on Sunday from the G20 conference in Hamburg, Uhlmann said Trump had shown “no desire and no capacity to lead the world” and was himself “the biggest threat to the values of the west”.
    “We learned that Donald Trump has pressed fast-forward on the decline of the United States as a global leader. He managed to isolate his nation, to confuse and alienate his allies and to diminish America.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jul/09/biggest-threat-to-the-west-australian-journalist-demolishes-trump-after-g20
    “[He is] a man who barks out bile in 140 characters, who wastes his precious days as president at war with the west’s institutions like the judiciary, independent government agencies and the free press.”

  48. Davidwh:

    You’re going straight to purgatory for having the temerity for taking Rudd’s name in vain!

  50. “Uhlmann would like a ‘standard’ variety RW Republican”
    I’m sure Chris will be happy if Mike Pence takes over. Just his kind of guy.

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