BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Another static reading of the BludgerTrack opinion poll aggregate, plus some preselection news.

This week’s reading of BludgerTrack, supplemented only by the usual weekly result from Essential Research, is another big load of nothing, the only movement being a gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Western Australia, balanced by a loss in Victoria. One Nation has bumped downwards for the second week in a row, but this is very likely a statistical artefact. BludgerTrack is making no effort to bias adjust for One Nation, which is recording stronger numbers from Newspoll (11% in the last poll) than Essential Research (down to 6% this week). Since Newspoll hasn’t reported for three weeks, Essential’s numbers are presently carrying greater weight. If the Newspoll that will presumably be out tonight or tomorrow is true to form, expect One Nation to tick back upwards on BludgerTrack next week. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.


Latika Bourke of Fairfax reveals that leaked nomination papers reveal the five contestants the Western Australian Liberal Senate vacancy of Chris Back, whose resignation took effect in the middle of last month. The front-runner out of an all male line-up is said to be Slade Brockman, a former staffer to local conservative heavyweight Mathias Cormann. Also on the list are David Barton, a physiotherapist; Gabi Ghasseb, a Lebanese-born and Bunbury-based businessman; and two entrants on the Liberals’ Battle of the Somme-length casualty list at the March state election: Michael Sutherland, former Speaker and member for the Mount Lawley, and Mark Lewis, former Agriculture Minister and upper house member for Mining and Pastoral region. Noting the absence of women, Bourke reports that Erin Watson-Lynn, a director of AsiaLink said to be aligned with Julie Bishop and the moderate tendency, was considering nominating but failed to find support.

• As the federal parliamentary term enters its second year, we’re beginning to hear the first murmurings about preselections for the next election. Tom McIlroy of The Canberra Times reports Liberal nominees for Eden-Monaro will include former Army combat engineer Nigel Catchlove, and that “international relations expert and Navy veteran Jerry Nockles is considering a tilt”. Nationals federal director Ben Hindmarsh says the party is considering fielding a candidate in the seat for the first time since 1993. State upper house MP Bronnie Taylor is mentioned as a possible contender, odd career move though that would be.

• With the retirement of Thomas George at the next state election, the Byron Shire Echo reports that the Nationals will conduct an open primary style “community preselection” to choose a new candidate in Lismore, which they very nearly lost to the Greens in 2015.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library brings us a review of last year’s election and a look at what would happen in the event that an early election required a mini-redistribution, both by Damon Muller.

• If you’ve ever been wondering what happened to content that used to be accessible on the website before the redesign removed the sidebar, you might find now an answer on my newly reupholstered personal website, At the very least you’ll be able to access the historical BludgerTrack charts, comment moderation guidelines and links to all my federal, state and territory election guides going back to 2004 (albeit that some of these have lost their formatting and are a bit of a dog’s breakfast). I hope to use this site a lot more in future for things the Crikey architecture can’t accommodate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

266 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  1. “and two entrants on the Liberals’ Battle of the Somme-length casualty list at the March state election:”


  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    The widespread trading of inside information to gain an advantage for those wagering on games as well as numerous players betting on their own performance, has reportedly shocked both police and NRL administrators. The NRL had netter watch out – Kate McClymont is on the job!
    Lenore Taylor says that new political battlelines are being drawn and they surround growing inequality regardless of what the Daily Telegraph and Abbott say.
    Ben Eltham says that Abbott is back doing what he does best. Wrecking!
    What a bloody joke! First daughter Ivanka Trump took her father’s seat at a G20 meeting table in Hamburg on Saturday, sitting in for the US President when he stepped away for one-on-one meetings with world leaders.
    World leaders forged a fragile compromise at a summit in Germany that failed to conceal the reality that Trump’s America is increasingly going its own way.
    Not unexpectedly climate proves to be the main sticking point at the G20 summit in Germany, with a final joint statement stalling over US demands to include a reference to ‘clean’ fossil fuels.
    And Paul McGeough begins his article in the G20 with “As much as they complain about so-called fake news, both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are known dabblers in that dark art. So whatever either of the leaders, and their armies of spin doctors, say about their Friday encounter in Hamburg should be taken with a grain of salt.”
    Michael West laments the lost opportunity at the G20 to address multinational tax avoidance.
    Alan Austin explains what Australia, and the world, could learn from Macron.–and-the-world–might-learn-from-frances-new-president,10482

  3. Section 2 . . .

    Imre Salusinzsky identifies three friends the Coalition could well do without – Alan Jones, Paul Murray and Ray Hadley.
    For months, politicians and fossil fuel industry have lied about the viability of renewables. Now Tesla’s big battery in South Australia will prove them wrong writes Tim Hollo.
    South Australia’s ailing auto industry could find a partial saviour in the lithium ion battery farm through business opportunities included in the State Government’s contract with global technology giant Tesla. The deal is conditional on opportunities for additional projects for state energy and auto technology companies. Google.
    Sean Nicholls writes that a meeting of the NSW Greens’ peak decision-making body is predicted to be a “love-in” for under-fire Senator Lee Rhiannon as the state division prepares to hit back at her suspension from the federal party room.
    Australia is set to become the world’s largest exporter of gas but its level of resource tax transparency falls behind Burkina Faso, Cameroon and Mongolia, a new global report has found, as the country forfeits billions of dollars in tax to multinational mining giants. What a mess!
    A good Sunday column from Peter FitzSimons.
    A wave of untreatable “super-gonorrhoea” is spreading across the world as the disease becomes resistant to antibiotics, health chiefs have warned. Better keep it in the trousers.
    VW has big plans to overcome the march of Tesla.
    My heart bleeds!
    More death throes from Domino’s?–dominos-franchisees-complain-about-phony-complaints-20170707-gx70ke.html


    The G20 conference in Hamburg has left Donald Trump more isolated on the world stage than ever, as the leaders of the 19 other countries spoke with one voice on climate change – but excluded the US.

    The emergence of the so-called “G19” group occurred on Saturday, after Mr Trump refused to sign up to the communique pledging to implement the Paris climate accord – which the US president says he wants to scrap or totally re-work.

    Stupidity 1
    RoW 19

  5. Hopefully not to be sounding too pedantic but a post by Kezza last night :

    kezza2 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 8:06 pm
    At the moment, I’m reading “The Trail of the Fox”, by David Irving, re Rommel (no, not David Irvine the Holocaust denier).


    The book “The Trail Of The Fox” WAS in fact written by controversial British historian – and holocaust denier – David Irving*

    Rommel was thought to be a strategic genius – but in fact he was getting all his information through German intercepts of Bonner Frank Fellers – he is notable as the US military attaché in Egypt whose extensive transmissions of detailed British tactical information being passed back to Washington were intercepted by Axis agents and passed to German field marshal Erwin Rommel for over six months, contributing to disastrous British defeats at Gazala and Tobruk in June 1942. The British learned this from their own Enigma intercepts of German messages – once they knew this, they took action to stop Fellers messages – and after then Rommel never had another victory in North Africa ….

    *Irving’s reputation as an historian was discredited when, in the course of an unsuccessful libel case he filed against the American historian Deborah Lipstadt and Penguin Books, he was shown to have deliberately misrepresented historical evidence to promote Holocaust denial. The English court found that Irving was an active Holocaust denier, antisemite, and racist,who “for his own ideological reasons persistently and deliberately misrepresented and manipulated historical evidence”. In addition, the court found that Irving’s books had distorted the history of Adolf Hitler’s role in the Holocaust to depict Hitler in a favourable light.

  6. Maxine Waters Slams Unpatriotic GOP For Not Standing Up To Putin Puppet Trump

    “I’m questioning the patriotism of all of those Republicans who are allowing this president to side with Putin, to wrap his arms around Putin.”

    As Waters noted in her epic takedown, the Republican Party has long tried to wrap themselves in the flag and claim they are the party of patriotism. Now, when it matters most, they have suddenly decided that putting country first isn’t what it’s cracked up to be.

    Instead, they’ve decided to look away and keep their mouths shut in hopes that Trump will help them achieve a set of goals they’ve been working toward for a long time: massive tax cuts for the rich, dismantling health care for millions of Americans, and rolling back regulations meant to protect the environment, among other things.

    But, as Waters correctly pointed out, since the Republican Party won’t stand up for America as Trump gives away the store to the Russians, they should stop calling themselves patriots.

    Nobody truly believes that anymore.


  7. Trump’s Own UN Ambassador Nikki Haley Just Made Him Look Like A Lying Idiot On Russia

    Trump’s own UN Ambassador, Nikki Haley, said during an interview on CNN that everybody knows that Russia interfered in the election, and by everybody, she means everyone but Trump who just denied that Russia interfered in the election at the G 20.

    Nikki Haley committed two sins against Trump. She went on CNN, and she completely contradicted Trump on Russian election interference. The administration official contradicts bat crap crazy president has become a common theme in the Trump administration. There are a group of people who aren’t from inside Trump World who try to put a sane face on things, only to have this president blow it all up with a statement or tweet.

    We should expect the tweet from Trump disagreeing with or trashing Haley’s comments by tomorrow morning at the latest.

  8. Top Democrat Rips Trump For Embarrassing America With Putin Meeting :

    It’s clear that President Trump is not willing to be the guardian of American interests when it comes to dealing with Putin. The House of Representatives has no choice but to step in and fill that void by passing our tough, bipartisan sanctions bill to finally punish Russia for their intrusion in our 2016 elections.

    Trump made it clear during his meeting with Putin that he is going to act in his own personal interest, not the interest of the United States. It is in Trump’s interest to cave to Putin because of the Russia investigation.

    The last thing that Trump needs is the Russian government ever coming clean and spilling the goods about what happened during the 2016 election.

    The President also appears to have borrowed money for Russia in the past, so he has a personal financial interest in keeping Putin happy. Trump looked like Putin’s stooge, and his performance was a disgrace that showed why his presidency is the biggest internal threat to the nation since the Civil War.

  9. Donald Trump throws daughter Ivanka a pity party after she’s hammered for sitting with leaders at the G20

    ne the same day the first daughter represented the United States at the G20 in Hamburg, President Donald Trump suggested Ivanka Trump should be pitied.

    “If she weren’t my daughter it would be so much easier for her,” Trump claimed. “It might be the only bad thing she has going if you want to know the truth.”

    This is not the first time that Trump has made such a silly statement.

    In 2006, Trump told The View that, “if Ivanka weren’t my daughter, perhaps I would be dating her.”

  10. BK

    Australia is set to become the world’s largest exporter of gas but its level of resource tax transparency falls behind Burkina Faso, Cameroon and Mongolia, a new global report has found, as the country forfeits billions of dollars in tax to multinational mining giants. What a mess!

    Yep. I’ve read enough on this previously to be so pi##ed off that I’m not even going to open your link!

  11. BK – The Advertiser is very ‘revealing’ …

    But they seem quite approving of Weatherill on this!

    The Sunday Mail can reveal taxpayer funding of the project, announced on Friday, is conditional on opportunities for additional projects for state energy and auto technology companies.

    It also can be revealed the cost of the 100MW and 129MWh battery farm, to be built at Jamestown in the Mid North, will be less than $50 million over 10 years. The price significantly contradicts US media estimates of between $100 million and $200 million.

    A cagey* Premier Jay Weatherill would not spell out details of the contract signed on Friday as a venture between the State Government, entrepreneur Elon Musk’s Tesla and French energy giant Neoen.

    * – Definition: ‘clever, showing self-interest and shrewdness in dealing with others’


    “There are lots of opportunities to plant new species,” Dr Kendal said.

    He said that while the City of Melbourne is replacing ageing deciduous trees, “maybe they shouldn’t be replacing species like for like, but with ones that are better suited for the future climates”.

    “Sydney is historically 4 degrees warmer than Melbourne,” he said. “It’s likely Melbourne will be as warm as Sydney in the future, and that city is home to more flowering, sub-tropical plants we don’t have in Melbourne at the moment.”

    Dr Kendal’s research will be presented at a conference on sustainable cities that is being held in Melbourne this week.

  13. Thanks BK
    Sort of funny that now Weatherill and Musk have made the actual announcement about the 100MW battery, it has become a “game changer”.
    The economics of the battery were the same the day before the announcement as they are after, but the the actual political endorsement now makes it “real”.
    No wonder a complex subject like the renewable energy transition is so full of bullshit.

  14. Morning all, and thanks BK for posting Lenore Taylor’s column. This is an excellent point and why the coalition isn’t gaining traction with its tax cuts for business budget.

    But we live in times where there is absolutely no reason to have such faith, where after 26 years of economic growth the share of national income going to Australian households is close to a 50-year low because most of the riches from the commodity boom went straight into the profits of businesses, where executive pay remains stratospheric and where we regularly read of big businesses that arrange their affairs to pay no company taxes at all.

    Those who pay attention to policy know that in the first instance the beneficiaries of penalty rate cuts will be small businesses, not the multinationals that have been exposed for shifting profits and avoiding tax, and not even the bigger Australian chains whose workers are on enterprise agreements. But that’s not really the point.

    The traditional neoliberal argument that workers will benefit if businesses do well is based on trust in the system and voters’ experience means that trust is pretty much gone. After so many years experiencing the opposite, they just aren’t buying the argument any more, and are highly unlikely to swallow the claim that quantifiable pay cuts now will deliver unspecified extra hours, or extra jobs, sometime in the future.

  15. Ctar1

    It also can be revealed the cost of the 100MW and 129MWh battery farm, to be built at Jamestown in the Mid North, will be less than $50 million over 10 years. The price significantly contradicts US media estimates of between $100 million and $200 million.

    If SA can do this deal, then so can the other states. Either with Tesla or with another supplier in partnership with whatever win or solar farm.
    What does the state get – political kudos and enhanced energy security for a lousy few mill. What does the partner renewable generator get – cheap batteries.
    Expect a flood of them.

  16. Trog Sorrenson Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 8:07 am
    The world is moving on.


    The world minus Trump’s USA is moving on

    “G19” Reaffirms Commitment To Paris Climate Deal Without The US

    But elsewhere — including trade and migration, as well as other areas of climate change — the leaders of the world’s biggest economies have compromised around Trump’s positions.

    The leaders of 19 of the world’s 20 largest economies have reaffirmed their commitment to the Paris climate accords, putting on record their differences with President Donald Trump’s administration.

    A communiqué issued at the end of the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany, notes the “decision of the United States of America to withdraw from the Paris Agreement”.

  17. Opinion: Trumps Preferred Weapon of Mass Destruction is Fox News

    The greatest trick the devil ever performed was to convince the world that he did not exist. However, he was unable to carry out this illusion alone. Donald Trump has figured this out and enlisted his very own shepherd to spread his malevolent message. Fox News and it’s resident dolt, Sean Hannity, play the part of messenger of misinformation and political distortion.

    There are three vital elements of a successful con game. One, is, of course, the initiator, in this case, Trump himself. Two is a gullible target, this being a large section of American voters. To perform the illusion of forthcoming prosperity, there is one final piece. Every con game requires a corroborator. This is the person who wins three straight hands in a card game, testifies to the structure of the Ponzi scheme, or sings the praises of the crooked preacher.

  18. Trog

    Sort of funny that now Weatherill and Musk have made the actual announcement about the 100MW battery, it has become a “game changer”.
    The economics of the battery were the same the day before the announcement as they are after, but the the actual political endorsement now makes it “real”.

    “Game changer” and “real” not surprising at all.

    The biggest lithium ion battery built so far is less than a third of the size of this one.

    It becomes ‘real’ because it’s the end of talking about scaling it up, and the start of actually doing it within a quite short time frame.

  19. Donald Trump is coming home. Brace yourselves.

    By Bill Palmer

    The most humiliating G20 summit in the history of the United States has come to a close, after it saw Donald Trump formally surrender to Vladimir Putin on the world stage, as the world’s other top leaders decided to move on together without the USA. With the damage done to the nation and to himself, Trump is now coming home. Brace yourselves.

    During his trip, Donald Trump has seemingly been cut off from the American media. And with the exception of his one random loony tweet about John Podesta, Trump has also been cut off from his own Twitter bully pulpit. But when he gets back to the United States, particularly if he wakes up early enough tomorrow to watch the Sunday morning shows, he’s going to learn what the rest of us already know: he was a punchline at the G20, and his already historically unpopular presidency is now all the more unpopular.

    Look for Trump to blame the media, as per usual, for the fact that his embarrassingly failed trip is being viewed by the public as an embarrassingly failed trip. Look for him to lash out at everyone involved, including a few semi-randomly selected world leaders from the G20 summit, as he attempts to create yet another distraction from the negative coverage of his negative G20 performance. But this time he might go even further off the deep end.

    Let’s see if Trump strays away from the fiction on Fox News long enough to take in any real news, and if he learns that his serenade of Putin was such an emasculating low point for him that even the Russians were making fun of him for it. Let’s see what he does once he puts it together that he really is the Russian puppet we’ve all been alluding to all along. The Russians aren’t his friends; they’re just his blackmailers. If Trump ever figures that out, and he just might this weekend, his head could fully explode in real time.

  20. Morning all. Thanks BK. Some interesting news this morning, and Turnbull sensibly realising that Australia is better off not following America down the anti-Paris path. The USA can sort of afford to ignore the rest of the world, whereas we cannot. We have a trade deficit with the USA, so less trade with them is good for us, and we badly need the rest of the world outside USA to trade with us. Plus, if we ever get serious about meeting Paris commitments, France and Germany have some excellent technology to sell us.

  21. Last night I head PM May’s Q&A at the G20.
    Regardless of her policies, I find her a most unimpressive speaker. When she’s reading a prepared speech, she only seems able to memorise three or four words at a time, then looks down again, which makes for a very disjointed delivery. Waiting for questions from journos, she almost twitched with nervousness.
    Was she really the best that Cameron could find?

  22. CTar
    I have heard from SA government sources that Tesla has offered SA a generous price on the batteries, as they want to promote the technology. The real prize for them is market exposure, and proving to the industrial market they can deliver for large projects.

    Either way, compared to $3 to 5 billion for a new 1GW coal fired power station, or $4+billion for Snowy II (if it is feasible!), the battery storage solution at under $100 million is looking cheap. At $100 million for 100MW, that is equivalent to $1 billion for 1GW, one third or less the cost of coal or hydro. Hence as others have said, new coal plants really are dead, from a financial viewpoint.

  23. Donald Trump is coming home. Brace yourselves.

    By Bill Palmer

    Thanks for that PhoenixRed. Is there a link to the whole article?

  24. confessions Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 8:47 am

    “Donald Trump is coming home. Brace yourselves.”

    “By Bill Palmer”

    Thanks for that PhoenixRed. Is there a link to the whole article?


    Hi Confessions – I read Bill Palmer’s stuff off the ‘Palmer Report’ on twitter – but you can get it here ……

  25. From the Guardian comments (the Greens appear to be stuffed):
    “Rhiannon’s Tasmanian colleague Peter Whish-Wilson said she was out of line
    Of course he said that, let’s look at who Whish Wilson is and what he’s done prior to sucking on the public teat.
    I’m sure the former IPA tool, former ADF aspirant, a former banker, a winery owner, is one of those eager to censure Rhiannon.
    Whish Wilson spent many years in the worst of the worst scandal ridden GFC causing banks in positions of power. A real bankster. He worked for Merrill Lynch in New York and Melbourne, serving as Vice-President from 1994 to 1998. He then worked in international sales for Deutsche Bank from 1998 to 2004
    On 20 June 2012 he was appointed to the Senate to fill a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of former party leader Bob Brown on 15 June 2012. Happy days.
    And what does Greens MP Whish Wilson, businessmen, politician, ex IPA, ex ADF, ex Merrill Lynch, ex Deutsche think about penalty rates?
    “I think the big issue is not that penalty rates should be paid—they should, but by whom? Effectively, I do not think small businesses should be the ones paying; rather, consumers should be paying for them.”
    If you continue to vote Green you are further entrenching the status quo for whom he works and has worked in the past.”

  26. So there you have it. Even in no social security US young men have increasing leisure time.

    This is a reality that needs to be addressed by government. Leisure time does not equal slacker/dole bludger

  27. confessions Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 8:52 am

    My impression of May is that she never wanted the job in the first place.

    That sounds exactly like Trump too …….. He is rumoured to hate the job and would love to quit but does not want to be seen as a loser/quitter ……

  28. Sohar

    Not if you live in NSW its not. In NSW you are voting for grass roots democracy fighting the rearguard action against the likes of Wish Wilson and thus the Bankster agenda

  29. “Looks like George Pell’s health is holding up well enough for him to travel to Singapore”.
    Saw a pic of him in Thailand yesterday (a bit of last minute fun?)

  30. Taylor’s article is good. The “Free Market” is just a con by the greedy arseholes of The Owners (and their enabling lackeys of the Rupertariat) to justify the last 30 years of rape and pillage. Trump is the Con Too Far. They’re fucked.

  31. “My impression of May is that she never wanted the job in the first place.”
    If she didn’t want the job so desperately she would have stood down as leader following the big loss of a majority. It would have been a perfect opportunity to take a back seat. She is lucky that she is a total incompetent in a party consisting of complete and utter incompetents.

  32. socrates @ #37 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 8:55 am

    Looks like George Pell’s health is holding up well enough for him to travel to Singapore. I hope he can make it to Australia for his trial. The lord works in mysterious ways.

    Obviously the power of prayer has overcome the debilitation that George was suffering earlier in the year and preventing him from travelling here to front the CA Royal Commission. Or was it the skin he now has in the game?

  33. Guytaur at 8.58 am.
    Point taken – I hope Rhiannon can make something of the Greens in NSW, to show up the likes of DiNat, SHY and Whish.

  34. Oops I seems to have started a bash Chris Uhlman thread on twitter for not covering South Australia changing the climate debate in Australia

  35. CNN Politics
    19 mins ·
    Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters that President Donald J. Trump appeared to accept his assertion that Russia did not meddle in the US presidential contest.

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