BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Another static reading of the BludgerTrack opinion poll aggregate, plus some preselection news.

This week’s reading of BludgerTrack, supplemented only by the usual weekly result from Essential Research, is another big load of nothing, the only movement being a gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Western Australia, balanced by a loss in Victoria. One Nation has bumped downwards for the second week in a row, but this is very likely a statistical artefact. BludgerTrack is making no effort to bias adjust for One Nation, which is recording stronger numbers from Newspoll (11% in the last poll) than Essential Research (down to 6% this week). Since Newspoll hasn’t reported for three weeks, Essential’s numbers are presently carrying greater weight. If the Newspoll that will presumably be out tonight or tomorrow is true to form, expect One Nation to tick back upwards on BludgerTrack next week. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Also:

Latika Bourke of Fairfax reveals that leaked nomination papers reveal the five contestants the Western Australian Liberal Senate vacancy of Chris Back, whose resignation took effect in the middle of last month. The front-runner out of an all male line-up is said to be Slade Brockman, a former staffer to local conservative heavyweight Mathias Cormann. Also on the list are David Barton, a physiotherapist; Gabi Ghasseb, a Lebanese-born and Bunbury-based businessman; and two entrants on the Liberals’ Battle of the Somme-length casualty list at the March state election: Michael Sutherland, former Speaker and member for the Mount Lawley, and Mark Lewis, former Agriculture Minister and upper house member for Mining and Pastoral region. Noting the absence of women, Bourke reports that Erin Watson-Lynn, a director of AsiaLink said to be aligned with Julie Bishop and the moderate tendency, was considering nominating but failed to find support.

• As the federal parliamentary term enters its second year, we’re beginning to hear the first murmurings about preselections for the next election. Tom McIlroy of The Canberra Times reports Liberal nominees for Eden-Monaro will include former Army combat engineer Nigel Catchlove, and that “international relations expert and Navy veteran Jerry Nockles is considering a tilt”. Nationals federal director Ben Hindmarsh says the party is considering fielding a candidate in the seat for the first time since 1993. State upper house MP Bronnie Taylor is mentioned as a possible contender, odd career move though that would be.

• With the retirement of Thomas George at the next state election, the Byron Shire Echo reports that the Nationals will conduct an open primary style “community preselection” to choose a new candidate in Lismore, which they very nearly lost to the Greens in 2015.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library brings us a review of last year’s election and a look at what would happen in the event that an early election required a mini-redistribution, both by Damon Muller.

• If you’ve ever been wondering what happened to content that used to be accessible on the website before the redesign removed the sidebar, you might find now an answer on my newly reupholstered personal website, pollbludger.net. At the very least you’ll be able to access the historical BludgerTrack charts, comment moderation guidelines and links to all my federal, state and territory election guides going back to 2004 (albeit that some of these have lost their formatting and are a bit of a dog’s breakfast). I hope to use this site a lot more in future for things the Crikey architecture can’t accommodate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

266 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  1. Not one question to the Senator representing South Australia on South Australia energy policy by Barrie Cassidy. Still covering LNP butt

  2. confessions Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 9:27 am
    CNN Politics
    19 mins ·
    Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters that President Donald J. Trump appeared to accept his assertion that Russia did not meddle in the US presidential contest.

    ********************************************

    Russia Crows Over Putin’s Meeting With Trump

    MOSCOW — There was a certain degree of exulting in the Russian capital on Saturday in the wake of the first meeting between President Vladimir V. Putin and President Trump, with Mr. Putin himself saying that the American president seemed satisfied with his answers on the hacking issue and that the talks had set the stage for improved relations.

    While a body language specialist employed by the BBC suggested that Mr. Trump won the day, a Russian expert consulted by the daily Komsomolskaya Pravda tabloid was having none of it.

    Mr. Putin exuded confidence, the Russian expert said, while Mr. Trump seemed to show a lack of it by sitting on the edge of his chair. Mr. Putin “controlled the situation and decided its tone,” the expert said, concluding that over all the meeting was “a psychological victory for the Russian president.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/08/world/europe/vladimir-putin-russia-g20.html

  3. phoenixred @ #7 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 6:52 am

    Hopefully not to be sounding too pedantic but a post by Kezza last night :
    kezza2 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 8:06 pm
    Ctar1
    At the moment, I’m reading “The Trail of the Fox”, by David Irving, re Rommel (no, not David Irvine the Holocaust denier).
    **********************************
    The book “The Trail Of The Fox” WAS in fact written by controversial British historian – and holocaust denier – David Irving*
    Rommel was thought to be a strategic genius – but in fact he was getting all his information through German intercepts of Bonner Frank Fellers – he is notable as the US military attaché in Egypt whose extensive transmissions of detailed British tactical information being passed back to Washington were intercepted by Axis agents and passed to German field marshal Erwin Rommel for over six months, contributing to disastrous British defeats at Gazala and Tobruk in June 1942. The British learned this from their own Enigma intercepts of German messages – once they knew this, they took action to stop Fellers messages – and after then Rommel never had another victory in North Africa ….
    *Irving’s reputation as an historian was discredited when, in the course of an unsuccessful libel case he filed against the American historian Deborah Lipstadt and Penguin Books, he was shown to have deliberately misrepresented historical evidence to promote Holocaust denial. The English court found that Irving was an active Holocaust denier, antisemite, and racist,who “for his own ideological reasons persistently and deliberately misrepresented and manipulated historical evidence”. In addition, the court found that Irving’s books had distorted the history of Adolf Hitler’s role in the Holocaust to depict Hitler in a favourable light.

    Thanks for clearing that up.
    I had my suspicions last night but due to the obvious irrationality of Kezza was disinclined to pursue it.

  4. The one photo that perfectly sums up Donald Trump’s G20 disaster

    Even as mainstream Americans sat at home during the G20 summit and wept about how throughly Donald Trump was humiliating them on the world stage, Trump himself tried to put on a brave face. But the reality is Russia exposed him as a puppet, and the rest of the world just plain doesn’t think much of him. This photo summed it all up perfectly:

    That’s a photo of Donald Trump sitting there like a guy who showed up uninvited at a party and doesn’t know what to do with himself because no one at the party wants to talk to him.

    Does anything else need to be said? From the look of it, even Donald Trump knows the rest of the world thinks he’s a joke.

    http://www.downgoestrump.com/donald-trump/one-photo-perfectly-sums-donald-trumps-g20-disaster/174/

  5. The CPG and extended media gaggle persist with the ‘fortunate Shorten’ narrative. Even Mike Seccombe, whom I previously considered separate from the group-think, got himself in on the act describing Shorten as ‘the Steven Bradbury of politics’.

    This demonstrates such shallowness of thinking, and unwillingness to break away from herd mentality.

  6. DQ

    One minute on the Tesla battery and implications for the game changer in political debate in this country that reality is.

    Thats how shallow this gallery is. Can’t have reality inform the audience

  7. socrates @ #29 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 8:47 am

    Either way, compared to $3 to 5 billion for a new 1GW coal fired power station, or $4+billion for Snowy II (if it is feasible!), the battery storage solution at under $100 million is looking cheap. At $100 million for 100MW, that is equivalent to $1 billion for 1GW, one third or less the cost of coal or hydro.

    Except that the $50 million spent on batteries doesn’t actually produce any additional electricity. It merely compensates (partly) for the intermittency of the nearby Hornsdale wind farm, whose latest phase (phase 3) cost $300 million for 100MW of wind power.

    And let’s not forget that this is wind, not solar. Solar is even more expensive, and even more intermittent.

    So $350 million for 100MW of (still intermittent) wind-powered electrical generation? I don’t support coal, but if it really was only $3 billion for 1 GW of reliable baseload power, then that would be cheaper.

    I’m sure this post will be misrepresented by the solar enthusiasts here as me supporting fossil-fuels. It isn’t, of course. It’s just me (yet again) pointing out the reality of where we are at present, and why renewables are still not in a position to win out purely economic grounds. Even wind power, which is by far the cheapest renewable source, and even in Australia, where we have some of the highest electricity prices on the planet.

  8. P1

    Intermittent no longer a problem Thats the point of batteries. This is a reality you are going to have to accept.

    South Australia is leading the world now. It has set the standard. More investment is going to come. You can create propaganda as much as you like. However like Murdoch its you that loses credibility

  9. For example on Friday night the ABC news in Sydney lead with the SA battery story. Great I thought, but it was more an opportunity to give Frydenberg time to denigrate the whole idea.

    Then there was a story on Australia’s crap internet. Great, I thought, that’s more like it.
    Ony it contained the statement that this is the responsibility of the ISP’s not the NBN.
    Yeah right, only in ABC protect the government at all costs land.

  10. P1
    At $3 billion per GW the wind power is still cheaper than the coal, plus you have to find another $100-$200 million per year for coal to fuel the coal plant (another $3 billion+ over a 30 year plant life). You do not need 1GW of storage to stabilise 1GW of wind power. I admit I over simplified things. But it is still clear that a combined wind-solar plant with battery storage is now cheaper than the whole of life cost of a coal plant of similar capacity. That assumes no carbon price. Add a carbon price and the coal plant has no chance.

  11. BK
    Pell’s ability to travel seems to have improved greatly since the pope confirmed the Vatican would not block any extradition attempt

  12. P1 again using incorrect cost estimates. One minute it says that cost shouldn’t be an issue, the planet should be paramount, next it’s the exact opposite. Go figure.
    Waste of time engaging with P1.

  13. the ABC political coverage is a joke.
    But who’s laughing?

    Those who want to see an end to publicly funded broadcasting?

  14. Socatres

    Add a carbon price and the coal plant has no chance.

    Remove subsidies for fossil fuels, add a carbon price – fossil fuels are massively subsidised. Understandably this never enters the cost equation for the fossil fuel promoters, otherwise the transition would be over in a couple of years.

  15. There needs to be a concerted social media push back against the likes of Uhlmann and the loss of integrity of the ABC.

  16. TS

    Yes totally agree. Also with Cassidy. A South Australian Senator on Insiders not one question on the Tesla Battery and its energy policy implications

  17. barney in go dau @ #62 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 9:50 am

    bk @ #49 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 9:22 am

    Justin Trudeau will bypass Trump and speak directly to the National Governors Association. That’s how to do it!
    http://thehill.com/policy/international/341004-trudeau-first-canadian-prime-minister-to-speak-to-national-governors

    I think many Western leaders have worked out the best approach is to make Trump irrelevant when dealing with the US.
    That’s really going to pump his ego!

    I can just imagine a constant stream of World leaders visiting the USA and not one going anywhere near the White House. 🙂

  18. There needs to be a concerted social media push back against the likes of Uhlmann and the loss of integrity of the ABC.

    Not just social media, but a public backlash against the ongoing funding cuts to public broadcasting.

  19. Confessions

    Yes. At least today News Radio was giving Eric Beecher from Crikey some airtime on public interest funding for quality journalists.

    Such debate can be built on that

  20. socrates @ #64 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 9:54 am

    I admit I over simplified things. But it is still clear that a combined wind-solar plant with battery storage is now cheaper than the whole of life cost of a coal plant of similar capacity.

    I was also over-simplifying, of course. I didn’t mention that you will need to replace the entire set of batteries two or three times over the lifetime of one actual generation plant. Not to mention the wind turbines or solar cells.

  21. Trog
    Agreed on the coal price subsidies too. Anyway the deal is done now, so the lies and spin will only look more stupid from now on. The battery deal will not entirely solve the SA price problem, because there is still the dubious 30 minute price rule from AEMO, but Things should start moving down. When AEMO finally gets its act into order things should improve a lot. Hopefully by then we will have a Labor government who can point out how much dearer energy had gotten under the Liberals and their no carbon price scam for fossil fuel owning mates.

  22. guytaur @ #70 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 10:14 am

    TS
    Yes totally agree. Also with Cassidy. A South Australian Senator on Insiders not one question on the Tesla Battery and its energy policy implications

    It is a SA Govt. matter. The focus with Penny Wong was rightly on national and international issues.

  23. Insiders and South Australia.

    I think the SA battery storage thing came too late for it to make it onto Insiders. Penny Wong was there to talk about the G20 and not domestic politics (at the level below her as well). With these sort of shows, the interview is set up a couple of days in advance and generally the topics to be discussed are agreed by the host and interviewee.

    As I said on Friday, its a great move by SA and Tesla, but the rhetoric around it by some makes you think they’ve solved the problem. This is just a step towards a solution, not the solution.

  24. P1
    Now you are dissembling. The running cost of the coal plant is so much higher than the wind/solar that you can replace the batteries and wind turbines every 10/20 years with the change. The coal plant will go through an amount of coal costing more than the batteries EVERY YEAR.

  25. Supply contracts for coal to 1GW coal power stations are around $150 million per annum, based on a Qld example I am familiar with. No wonder the coal industry is terrified of wind turbines. They want to use the local supply market as a financial backstop while their export revenues have taken a hammering.

  26. trog sorrenson @ #66 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 10:03 am

    P1 again using incorrect cost estimates. One minute it says that cost shouldn’t be an issue, the planet should be paramount, next it’s the exact opposite. Go figure.
    Waste of time engaging with P1.

    I was using the figures provided.

    It is you who insists that solar + batteries are “already cheaper”, when it is quite plain that this is not yet the case. It is me who says you need to do more than just expect economics to solve the problem.

    However, I realize that argument is a little difficult for you to comprehend.

  27. Bemused

    It is a SA Govt. matter. The focus with Penny Wong was rightly on national and international issues.

    It is an issue with national implications, and with far greater significance than coverage of Hanson flying a fucking drone.

  28. Ha

    Its not Senator Wong’s fault she did not get a question about a major policy change that has international implications on the Paris agreement and our ability to meet it.

    When Bishop Joyce and others have been on Friday announcements have made it to the interview. Bishop has been asked about Western Australian politics in an interview even though she is the Minister for Foreign Affairs. She is also a member or the HOR representing a WA electorate.

    Same standard applies

  29. On the ABC, I view the problem is more that they have moved towards the commercial tv style journalism. Stories are not given enough in-depth research, there is little critical analysis of sources and not enough time given to opposing views. This is why I would watch the ABC because they did not have commercial pressures, they could take more time and care with a story. I think the direction taken in the newsroom is wrong. I also still maintain Leigh Sales is nothing compared to Sarah Ferguson.

    As for Uulhmann, I’ve wondered if he goes harder on Labor because he is married to a Labor MP. I do however note he completely hates the Greens and treats them mostly with contempt and he makes very little attempt to hide his bias. His stories on SA and the blackout are atrocious.

  30. What gets me about the ‘Bradbury’ business with jounros is that they completely dismiss the policy announcements ALP has made in the past 2 years as non-existent.

    The sports pundits completely ignored the fact that Bradbury was good enough to get into the final of his race and concentrated solely on the luck of having his rivals crash out. But he WAS good enough to make the final.

    Just as Shorten has gotten to the top of his game and IS demonstrating good policy work, even if the CPG choose to ignore it and say he is ‘going the populist route’.

    Well SOOORRRRRYYYYY the ALP’s policies are popular for a reason. They resonate be cause they reflect yet he lived experience of the electorate.

  31. I view the problem is more that they have moved towards the commercial tv style journalism.

    That is exactly the problem, and cause of their aping the commercials and not doing good indepth reporting is because of budget cuts.

  32. socrates @ #79 Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 10:30 am

    Now you are dissembling. The running cost of the coal plant is so much higher than the wind/solar that you can replace the batteries and wind turbines every 10/20 years with the change. The coal plant will go through an amount of coal costing more than the batteries EVERY YEAR.

    The problem is that we are both oversimplifying, of course. But the fact remains that the LCOE for wind is cheaper than coal … until you include the batteries. Then it is higher. And solar is higher still.

  33. P1

    Yeah that is why South Australia is now leading the world in renewable energy. They did not listen to you. They took the cheapest most reliable option

  34. Further, I think people should take the Shorten is Bradbury argument with a bit of thought. Bradbury was the world champ heading into the Olympics but had suffered injuries and setbacks. He got lucky to get into the finals due to issues with other competitors, but it was not like the man was without talent or proven ability. I’m sure you can all see Shorten might have those same qualities. Also its pretty much a throwaway line, and for the general public who dont follow politics like we do, it cuts through to them. As Shane Wright pointed out, voters are only seeing the Liberal internal war at the moment.

  35. IOM

    Voters are seeing the internal war. The denial of science increasing their power bills. The same with other expenses like house prices.

    All the time Mr Shorten’s message has been lets be fair. No tax breaks for the rich and cutting wages. Thats even before you get to Labor governments getting runs on the board in reducing prices with things like the Tesla battery

  36. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/racist-hate-crimes-surge-to-record-high-after-brexit-vote-new-figures-reveal-a7829551.html

    Hate crimes involving racial and religious discrimination have soared at an unprecedented rate since the Brexit vote, The Independent can reveal, prompting warnings that minority groups feel “more vulnerable than ever”.

    Police figures obtained through Freedom of Information (FOI) requests show incidents surged by 23 per cent – from 40,741 to 49,921 – in the 11 months after the EU referendum, compared with the same period the previous year, marking an unparallelled rise.

  37. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-germany-business-warns-theresa-may-protect-single-market-trade-deal-uk-a7831401.html

    Brexit: German business warns May its priority is to protect single market, not a good trade deal with UK Carmakers in Germany were expected to lobby their government for a free trade deal to help them sell into the British market, but they say protecting the single market is more important

    Europhobic incompetence.

  38. How is the SA battery going to make electricity prices cheaper, seems to be more of a reliability issue to me.

  39. German industry has warned Britain not to rely on its help in securing a good Brexit deal, in a stark intervention that strikes a blow at the government’s EU departure plans.

    Senior ministers have repeatedly claimed since the election that Germany’s powerful exporters will exert pressure for a deal handing Britain substantial access to the EU’s markets.

    However, ministers are told that it is up to the British government to limit the economic fallout from its decision to leave the single market. With the government facing new pressure from business to soften its Brexit plans, German industrialists also warn that Britain will struggle to avoid economic damage as a result of exiting the bloc.

    Two of Germany’s biggest industry groups have told the Observer that their main concern during the Brexit process is protecting the single market for the remaining 27 members, even if this harms trade with Britain.

    Dieter Kempf, president of the BDI, the federation of German industries, said: “Defending the single market, a key European project, must be the priority for the European Union. Europe must maintain the integrity of the single market and its four freedoms: goods, capital, services, and labour.

    “It is the responsibility of the British government to limit the damage on both sides of the Channel. Over the coming months, it will be extraordinarily difficult to avert negative effects on British businesses in particular.”

    And Ingo Kramer, president of the confederation of German employers’ associations (BDA), told the Observer: “The single market is one of the major assets of the EU. Access to the single market requires the acceptance of all four single market freedoms.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/08/german-industry-warns-uk-over-brexit

  40. VP

    Watch the presser from Weatherill and Musk. Its claimed there. Neither of them seems to me to be stupid people who would lie on this point

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