ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll finds voters favouring Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott for the Liberal leadership by a two-to-one ratio, with Labor maintaining a moderate lead on voting intention.

A new poll conducted for ReachTEL by Sky News gives Labor a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which is down from 53-47 at the last such poll on May 11. At the moment, primary vote figures are limited to the first question which allowed for an undecided response, which comes in a 7.1% – I assume the undecided were then given a forced response question, to which we don’t yet have the results. If the undecided are simply excluded from the available numbers, the results are Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.6%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 9.8%.

An all-or-nothing question on the Liberal leadership breaks 68.3-31.7 in favour of Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott, while Turnbull leads Bill Shorten 54.1-45.9 as preferred prime minister. Turnbull’s combined very good plus good rating is “just under 27%”, compared with 36.5% for poor or very poor. Same-sex marriage has 62.4% supportive and 25.9% opposed, with most believing the matter should be determined by a plebiscite, and 64.1% believe penalty rates should be higher on Sundays than Saturdays. The poll was conducted yesterday from a sample of 2389.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

610 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Curtin University Alumni
    3 hrs ·
    If you didn’t get a chance to join us on Wednesday night when Julia Gillard, former Prime Minister of Australia delivered her John Curtin Prime Ministerial Library Anniversary Lecture entitled ‘Great reform requires courage,’ read the news story in WAtoday: http://bddy.me/2sn0N5k a video of the lecture will be available soon.

    I’m sure she did brilliantly. She’s a wonderful public speaker and has a genuine warm and engaging personality to her presentations.

  4. Ides:

    It’s still a great parliamentary outcome, regardless of the political theatre behind the scenes. Our parliament could achieve similar if it wasn’t stuck firmly in numptyville.

  7. Confessions.

    Merkel voted No. More impressive she did it. Turnbull the spineless says hes for it and cannot do the same.

  8. Bemused

    Thats where your thinking is wrong. Humans are not economic units. If automation is whats caused the unemployment there is no wasted human resource. That role has been taken by automation.

  9. Guytaur:

    Turnbull has lost all credibility on the issue of SSM. For heaven’s sake, he even went as far as to apparently chastise Pyne for his remarks the other day.

    He’s nothing more than a flake and a more husked out shell than even Greg Hunt. And that’s saying something!

  12. guytaur @ #158 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 8:29 pm

    Bemused
    Thats where your thinking is wrong. Humans are not economic units. If automation is whats caused the unemployment there is no wasted human resource. That role has been taken by automation.

    Are you really that obtuse or are you trying to misinterpret what I write?
    The unemployed are an unutilised (wasted) source of labour.

  16. Paul Krugman’s latest on understanding Republican cruelty, and it’s a blood boiler.

    The puzzle — and it is a puzzle, even for those who have long since concluded that something is terribly wrong with the modern G.O.P. — is why the party is pushing this harsh, morally indefensible agenda.

    Think about it. Losing health coverage is a nightmare, especially if you’re older, have health problems and/or lack the financial resources to cope if illness strikes. And since Americans with those characteristics are precisely the people this legislation effectively targets, tens of millions would soon find themselves living this nightmare.

    Meanwhile, taxes that fall mainly on a tiny, wealthy minority would be reduced or eliminated. These cuts would be big in dollar terms, but because the rich are already so rich, the savings would make very little difference to their lives.

    More than 40 percent of the Senate bill’s tax cuts would go to people with annual incomes over $1 million — but even these lucky few would see their after-tax income rise only by a barely noticeable 2 percent.

    So it’s vast suffering — including, according to the best estimates, around 200,000 preventable deaths — imposed on many of our fellow citizens in order to give a handful of wealthy people what amounts to some extra pocket change.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/30/opinion/understanding-republican-cruelty.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

    You can totally see the Liberals itching to impose similar measures.

  18. Bemused

    Great economic term treating humans as economic units. However humans are not economic units. They are more than that. That style of thinking is part of infinite growth infinite employment opportunities where economics fails.

  19. Vogon Poet
    Friday, June 30, 2017 at 7:07 pm
    With a bit of luck, the cricket dispute will lead to a cricket free summer.
    *******************************************************
    Oh I hope not!
    This is our year for xmas in Australia and I have myself ensconced in the Long Room at the MCG come Boxing Day!

  20. Gt – I think all Bemused is getting at is that when we have unemployment, it is a challenge but effort to find productive things for them to do should/must be made. We need to try to come up with ‘work for the dole’.

  22. Poroti

    Who says they are sitting idly. They could be playing sport doing lots of things.

    If automation is doing the work the only problem is distributing the revenue.

    So even if they are sitting idly. Who cares? Thats my point.

    Full employment has only ever been an assumption and even under that economic definition there are those its conceded will never work through no fault of their own.

  23. Guytaur, are you trying to sound humane in some weird way? Yes, people are more than just economic units, but if they’re thrown on to the unemployment scrapheap their ability to contribute is wasted and their lives are ruined. Try to reformulate what you’re saying in words that don’t sound like the jargon of the rationalist economists to whom you seem to be opposed.

  25. CT

    thats certainly a challenge for society. Also for individuals to keep busy enjoying life and not being depressed.

    However its very different from productivity and the wealth it creates.

  27. Jack a Randa.

    Unemployment scrap heap. Whats scrap heap about it if you have income from increased productivity producing wealth distributed to individuals as income?

  28. ctar1 @ #170 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 8:42 pm

    Gt – I think all Bemused is getting at is that when we have unemployment, it is a challenge but effort to find productive things for them to do should/must be made. We need to try to come up with ‘work for the dole’.

    Not exactly.
    There is an enormous amount of unmet human need in society. And at the same time we have idle resources.
    The challenge is to overcome that paradox so that all who wish to work are employed in a productive manner, not silly ‘make work’ schemes.
    Keynes did offer a solution.

  30. Ctari:

    I should sometimes be a little less facetious. I am happy that it passed, I not happy that Angela Merkel did it for political points. I will give her credit for having a free vote.

  31. You are all missing thebpoint.

    You are all assuming work is what it has always been.

    Well we have had decadedes of unemployment and because the right has been in the ascendency a very few people have got all the wealth. Some others work a lot of hours for not much reward in income.

    Some get no work and survive on a pittance. The latter get to the point where there seems to be no hope.

    Thats today without the automation thats coming. This is the insidious economic thinking at the heart of our society’s problem.

    The only solution is to decrease work hours. Increase the wealth for those hours worked. Reduce the inequality. Thats without worrying about less hours of work available as more jobs are automated.

    Add more automation. Less hours of work available the only logical solution is change pay for hours worked. That even may mean increased income for zero hours worked depending on the wealth created.

  32. Bemused – If you’re going to ‘lose’ word out of what you are saying I think mine was a world class effort!

  36. A century ago the aim of accumulating wealth was to reach a point where you didn’t have to work. Work wasn’t seen as noble or self affirming, but as a tiresome necessity.

    Jane Austen’s family, for example, played down her work as an author because the suggestion that someone in their family had to write books to make money was seen as a slur on them all.

    Even some of the age’s greatest contributors, such as Nightingale and Darwin, spent most of their lives ‘unemployed’.

    Automation should be seen as something which frees human beings from work, and we should take seriously the idea of a society where work is part time.

    There are lots of other paths to self esteem, and many, many ways leisure time can be filled in meaningful ways.

    We don’t have to buy into the idea that being employed to work by somebody else from nine to five five days of the week is the only acceptable life choice.

  37. The Morning Joe crew respond to Trump, and they dont miss him.

    “Mr. Trump also claims that Mika was “bleeding badly from a face-lift.” That is also a lie.

    Putting aside Mr. Trump’s never-ending obsession with women’s blood, Mika and her face were perfectly intact, as pictures from that night reveal. And though it is no one’s business, the president’s petulant personal attack against yet another woman’s looks compels us to report that Mika has never had a face-lift. If she had, it would be evident to anyone watching “Morning Joe” on their high-definition TV. She did have a little skin under her chin tweaked, but this was hardly a state secret. Her mother suggested she do so, and all those around her were aware of this mundane fact.

    More significant is Mr. Trump’s continued mistreatment of women. It is disturbing that the president of the United States keeps up his unrelenting assault on women. From his menstruation musings about Megyn Kelly, to his fat-shaming treatment of a former Miss Universe, to his braggadocio claims about grabbing women’s genitalia, the 45th president is setting the poorest of standards for our children. We were heartened to hear a number of Republican lawmakers call out Mr. Trump for his offensive words and can only hope that the women who are closest to him will follow their examples. It would be the height of hypocrisy to claim the mantle of women’s empowerment while allowing a family member to continue such abusive conduct.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/donald-trump-is-not-well/2017/06/30/97759ee0-5d0f-11e7-9b7d-14576dc0f39d_story.html?utm_term=.9051d0261c74

  38. Nice to see the RGR Wars are maturing. The visceral defences of each are being replaced by a more nuanced acknowledgement of their human failures and mistakes. Personally I found Gillard a more compelling individual. Rudd, for no fault of his own, always reminded me of the Milky Bar Kid. Still does.

  39. Zoomster

    Even some of the age’s greatest contributors, such as Nightingale and Darwin, spent most of their lives ‘unemployed’.

    They may well have been but they had the $ to afford to be unemployed be it from patronage or family. Not an option for 99.9% of those trudging off to Centrelink to be whipped and beaten.

    But yes, 9-5 is not the only option. Automation could indeed mean freedom but the Truffles,Ginas and Porters of the world will not see it that way.

  40. “She’s a wonderful public speaker and has a genuine warm and engaging personality to her presentations.”
    Except for campaign launches apparently.

  41. Poroti

    Thats the point. Unless people fight through politics the likes of the IPA associated lot will just steamroll everyone else.

  43. Rudd, for no fault of his own, always reminded me of the Milky Bar Kid. Still does.

    I think this is because of a cartoonist who always portrayed him as such. I forget who the cartoonist was btw.

  44. Except for campaign launches apparently.

    To each their own. I always viewed her as a woman of great substance. You obviously felt differently which is entirely up to you.

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