ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll finds voters favouring Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott for the Liberal leadership by a two-to-one ratio, with Labor maintaining a moderate lead on voting intention.

A new poll conducted for ReachTEL by Sky News gives Labor a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which is down from 53-47 at the last such poll on May 11. At the moment, primary vote figures are limited to the first question which allowed for an undecided response, which comes in a 7.1% – I assume the undecided were then given a forced response question, to which we don’t yet have the results. If the undecided are simply excluded from the available numbers, the results are Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.6%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 9.8%.

An all-or-nothing question on the Liberal leadership breaks 68.3-31.7 in favour of Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott, while Turnbull leads Bill Shorten 54.1-45.9 as preferred prime minister. Turnbull’s combined very good plus good rating is “just under 27%”, compared with 36.5% for poor or very poor. Same-sex marriage has 62.4% supportive and 25.9% opposed, with most believing the matter should be determined by a plebiscite, and 64.1% believe penalty rates should be higher on Sundays than Saturdays. The poll was conducted yesterday from a sample of 2389.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

610 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 13
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  1. zoomster @ #91 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 6:28 pm

    bemused
    So you were wrong. She entered the election campaign with a comfortable lead, contrary to your statement.

    Well excuse my minor imprecision. I didn’t look it up.
    I was initially supportive and hopeful, but my heart sank when she came out with her ‘cash for clunkers’ and ‘citizens assembly’ which I quickly recognised as dogs. All down hill from there.

  3. Jack a Randa

    And are you going to blame Bill, Trog? Or are you waiting for the KrakenRex to awaken?

    I blame wishy washy centrist claptrap.

  4. shiftaling @ #93 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 6:36 pm

    —
    I often find Briefly’s comments, and those of others who campaign at elections, interesting in the way that they talk about the “vibe” out in the electorate. The synergy of public opinion, that swelling tide which moves it one way or the other – three years of good polls for Labor can evaporate instantly in an election campaign if they misread the mood of the people or send out bad signals.
    —

    I am with Briefly on that.
    Few voters have a check list of policies they tick off, they have formed an overall ‘vibe’ or ‘feeling’ about a leader, their senior colleagues and a party, based on their presentation of themselves and their policies.
    Their is a death zone into which leaders and parties can enter and Turnbull and his lot are deep inside it.
    There is now little they can say or do.

  5. Shiftaling

    Sorry it’s a bit of a post about nothing really.

    No it’s certainly not.

    The voters perception of politicians can be as precarious as you say.

  7. Yes, Bemused, the citizens’ assembly was a dumb idea. But so was Rudd’s 2020 Summit – can you name one idea that came out of it that was actually implemented?

  10. I hope Malcolm Turnbull buys the Press Gallery line that Marriage Equality will give him victory. I hope he goes full bore on it. No exemptions.

    As we have seen nothing more sure to get RW MP’s to desert for Bernadi’s party. Bring it on. 🙂

  11. Jack A Randa

    Friday, June 30, 2017 at 6:29 pm
    Oh Bemused and Kezza, leave it out. They both had good qualities and both made appalling mistakes.

    Jacka, not my argument. And I know you want it stopped. But, the thing is, Julia Gillard replaced Kevin Rudd.

    And his supporters have cried foul ever since; as if it’s a crime that a woman replaced an incompetent man.

    I’ve been arguing that if it had been a bloke who replaced Rudd, then none of this shit would have happened. It would have just been situation normal. Run of the Mill.

    Because it was a woman, she had to be trashed within an inch of her life. And we still have ego-maniacs supporting Rudd, as if he was hardly-done-by; making excuses for him; poor losers, the lot of them.

  12. Trog, that headline “Malcolm Turnbull could use same-sex marriage to win the next election” gives a misleading impression of the article. Ms Maley’s conclusion is “But to pull that off, the Prime Minister would need creativity, authority and room to move. He has none” Seconded

  14. Oh my, we’ve got poll after poll after poll with Labor on roughly 52 ahead of the Coal and Pollbludger has another round of the RGR wars?
    For the #3,978,514 time.
    We’ve got internal dissension in the Libs, neatly stoked by Christopher Pyne and far right folk bleeding to Bernardi, and you want to redo the RGR wars?

  16. jack a randa @ #107 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 6:52 pm

    Yes, Bemused, the citizens’ assembly was a dumb idea. But so was Rudd’s 2020 Summit – can you name one idea that came out of it that was actually implemented?

    My memory may be a bit hazy, but I thought Rudd’s talkfest did do some good.

  17. ctar1 @ #109 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 6:54 pm

    Bemused – I could lend you some negative degrees in the morning if you like.

    No thank you.
    My first trip to Canberra was when I was bussed there, along with other cadets when the plane to pick us up from Cooma couldn’t land.
    We spent the night in old un-insulated and asbestos ridden huts with very little by way of bedding. We froze.

  21. kezza2 @ #111 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 7:00 pm

    Jack A Randa

    Friday, June 30, 2017 at 6:29 pm
    Oh Bemused and Kezza, leave it out. They both had good qualities and both made appalling mistakes.

    Jacka, not my argument. And I know you want it stopped. But, the thing is, Julia Gillard replaced Kevin Rudd.
    And his supporters have cried foul ever since; as if it’s a crime that a woman replaced an incompetent man.
    I’ve been arguing that if it had been a bloke who replaced Rudd, then none of this shit would have happened. It would have just been situation normal. Run of the Mill.
    Because it was a woman, she had to be trashed within an inch of her life. And we still have ego-maniacs supporting Rudd, as if he was hardly-done-by; making excuses for him; poor losers, the lot of them.

    It only seems to come up when you, Confessions or some other nong stirs the pot.
    I am more interested in the other matters discussed here today.

  24. vogon poet & bemused
    I’m shocked, shocked. You’re against circuses?
    Even now the AFL is firing up yet another version and I’m about to go watch the first ep o fthe new series of Cleverman. Recommended.

  25. Bemused

    We spent the night in old un-insulated and asbestos ridden huts with very little by way of bedding. We froze.

    “Welcome to RAAF Fairbairn”?

  27. I quite like the RGR wars… their regular recurrence is kind of like the rhythm of the seasons. And it’s a great reminder of the wonderful diversity of humankind, to be reminded that,extraordinary as it may seem, there are among us still folk who feel that appointing Rudd as leader wasn’t one of the modern ALP’s greatest errors of judgment. I guess those who don’t learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.

  29. ctar1 @ #125 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 7:18 pm

    Bemused

    We spent the night in old un-insulated and asbestos ridden huts with very little by way of bedding. We froze.

    “Welcome to RAAF Fairbairn”?

    That’s what it was.
    About all we had to amuse ourselves and try to keep warm was vigorous chorus’ of “We hate this f*****g place”. Until the Service Police arrived and told us to shut up.

  30. kezza2 @ #128 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 7:33 pm

    Bemused
    What’s this biffo shit you keep talking about?
    Are your threatening me with physical assault?

    Ludicrous.
    You seem to be spoiling for a fight. Every time you come here.
    I can probably recommend some nice pubs where you will be accommodated.

  33. bemused

    ‘I was initially supportive and hopeful, but my heart sank when she came out with her ‘cash for clunkers’ and ‘citizens assembly’ which I quickly recognised as dogs. All down hill from there..’

    And yet Rudd, who you admit made mistakes in the 2013 campaign which were probably even more disastrous, has your unswerving loyalty.

    (I disagree with you on both policy issues – I was a candidate at that election and these were good policies, taken in the context of the time. The same could not be said for Rudd’s bad policy decisions during the 2013 campaign, which were bad even in context and were totally unforced).

  34. Bemused: “My memory may be a bit hazy, but I thought Rudd’s talkfest did do some good.”
    Nick Stuart in Rudd’s Way (Scribe, Melboure, 2010): “The 2020 summit provided a paradigm for much of the activity in Rudd’s term of office …. His rhetoric inspired and enthused voters. And yet …. and yet …. nothing happened.”
    Far better for a party to have some good policy people on staff and work out some realistic policies before getting elected – and then do something to implement them! Like Gough did. I hope Bill’s got something in train atm.

  35. Max
    Rudd was the right man to beat Howard. I doubt he was the right man to be PM.
    Whoever leaked the Cabinet discussions during the 2020 campaign did Australia (and the ALP) a great disservice, but I think JG handled it badly. Her saying in a private meeting that some policies that she supported might not be be the political goldmines that some others thought never seemed to me to be inconsistent. Instead of saying this and moving on, she let it become a symbol of that fatal thing “disunity (by the person who leaked them), and hypocrisy on her part (which it was not)”.

  36. Sorry about the RGR wars, but some of us feel the truth is worth fighting for and inaccurate statements shouldn’t be allowed to stand.

    I suppose we should just go along to get along, it’s worked out so well so far.

  38. zoomster @ #133 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 7:46 pm

    bemused
    ‘I was initially supportive and hopeful, but my heart sank when she came out with her ‘cash for clunkers’ and ‘citizens assembly’ which I quickly recognised as dogs. All down hill from there..’
    And yet Rudd, who you admit made mistakes in the 2013 campaign which were probably even more disastrous, has your unswerving loyalty.
    (I disagree with you on both policy issues – I was a candidate at that election and these were good policies, taken in the context of the time. The same could not be said for Rudd’s bad policy decisions during the 2013 campaign, which were bad even in context and were totally unforced).

    I certainly don’t support what he did in 2013, it smacked of desperation. But such was the polling that they were desperate times.
    And those policies you defend were simply idiotic.
    John Quiggin did a superb demolition of the ‘cash for clunkers’. Just economic folly.
    The ‘citizens assembly’ was simply an inappropriate methodology (Action Research) for what needed to be done.

  39. The 2020 campaign has not arrived. Of course I was referring to the deplorable 2010 campaign. If I remember correctly, , there is some computer coding in which HEX 2020 stands for (blank)(blank), which just about sums up the 2010 campaign for the ALP.

  42. jack a randa @ #134 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 7:48 pm

    Bemused: “My memory may be a bit hazy, but I thought Rudd’s talkfest did do some good.”
    Nick Stuart in Rudd’s Way (Scribe, Melboure, 2010): “The 2020 summit provided a paradigm for much of the activity in Rudd’s term of office …. His rhetoric inspired and enthused voters. And yet …. and yet …. nothing happened.”
    Far better for a party to have some good policy people on staff and work out some realistic policies before getting elected – and then do something to implement them! Like Gough did. I hope Bill’s got something in train atm.

    Yes, Gough is still my gold standard.
    In theory, Labor members decide policy, not some staffers. It was idiotic staffers who came up with ‘cash for clunkers’ and ‘citizens assembly’. I could not see such nonsense ever getting through party forums.
    Gough developed the policies and then devoted a lot of effort into selling them. Voters knew what they were voting for.

  45. Bemused

    I know the counter argument. However we know what jobs are going. Despite the optimistic mantra I think plan for worst hope for best.

    The jobs will come is a faith not evidence view. No sign new jobs will come to replace in numbers to get current unemployment down let alone predicted 40% loss

  46. guytaur @ #145 Friday, June 30, 2017 at 8:12 pm

    Bemused
    I know the counter argument. However we know what jobs are going. Despite the optimistic mantra I think plan for worst hope for best.
    The jobs will come is a faith not evidence view. No sign new jobs will come to replace in numbers to get current unemployment down let alone predicted 40% loss

    Unemployment = wasted human resources.
    While ever there are needs that are not being met, it leaves scope for those wasted human resources to be utilised.
    That is the problem that needs to be solved.

  47. Good on the German parliament for making marriage equality a reality in that country. And really, such a novel idea getting the parliament to do its job instead of calling for an expensive and totally redundant plebiscite!

    Australia: this is how it’s done.

  48. The “cash for clunkers” was a direct rip off of the same US “cash for clunkers” scheme that was intended to prop up their car manufacturers in the face of the GFC. Don’t think it went well there either.

  49. Wasted human resources?

    If automation no human resource wasted. Productivity has not fallen. Most likely increased.

  50. Fess:

    Its only legal in German because the SPD and the other likely coalition partner for Merkel’s CDU after the elections both said do it or no coalition. Hardly a ringing endorsement. The only good thing is that it was a free vote.

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