Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll comes in at 53-47 for the third time in a row, with both leaders down slightly on their net approval ratings.

The first Newspoll result in three weeks, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 11% (up two). The two leaders have recorded identical personal ratings of 32% approval and 55% disapproval, which in Malcolm Turnbull’s case means a three point drop on approval and a one point increase on disapproval, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one and up two. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 44-31, compared with 45-33 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1786.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,032 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. guytaur @ #889 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 6:50 pm

    Bemused
    To be fair. Rudd like Shorten has changed his mind. I have not heard what Gillard thinks now.
    I think its good that we know the next time Labor is in power its going to happen.

    Rudd used to engage in conspicuous God bothering with pressers outside a church and he spoke at some convention of ACL.
    The first barely excusable, the second unforgivable.
    Gillard? Well, what can I say without rousing the cult from its slumbers.

  2. raaraa @ #899 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 7:04 pm

    bemused @ #872 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 6:17 pm

    guytaur @ #866 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 6:09 pm

    7:30 Report is doing an NBN complaint story tonight.

    ABC Melbourne had one today with an utterly hopeless NBN spin person who was clueless and Dr Mark Gregory from RMIT, I wonder if that was videoed for use on 7.30?

    I thought the guy from RMIT was really good and made things clear why some things the NBN are doing today are the way they are and why they cost so much. And he argued how much better it could be done too.
    I particularly like how he highlighted that one of the connection charges was because Australia had to pay high costs to maintain the international data links, however, it should not be the case these days as all the big companies like Google, Netflix, Youtube, etc already cache their data locally.

    Yes, Mark Gregory used to comment a lot in a LinkedIn Group I am a member of, but he seems to have gone a bit quiet of late. He bobs up in the Tech Media occasionally.
    Unlike those making decisions about the NBN, he knows what he is talking about. That NBN spokesperson was a joke even by NBN standards.

  3. raaraa @ #895 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 7:00 pm

    barney in go dau @ #881 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 6:39 pm

    lizzie @ #878 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 6:28 pm

    Linda Burney MP‏Verified account @LindaBurneyMP · 4h4 hours ago
    What about Indigenous people who speak traditional languages and poor English – does the PM suggest theirs is a lesser citizenship? #auspol

    And after all, as someone pointed out the other day,
    Australia has no official language.

    The UK too doesn’t have an official language. Except Wales, because when they tried to make Welsh and official language, it turns out they had to make English one too. Or so I’ve been told.

    I loved the road signs in Wales.

    When you first cross from England the signs are English with Welsh underneath, as you get further into Wales it flips and then finally as you move up the west coast the English disappears.

    I also liked the give way signs in Ireland, it was the first indication you had gone from the Republic into the North.

    In the Republic they were labelled “Yield” while in the North, the normal “Give Way” was used.

  8. Raaraa

    Except Wales, because when they tried to make Welsh and official language, it turns out they had to make English one too. Or so I’ve been told.

    TG all their road sign are in both.

  9. rharris334: Observation from one Liberal: George might have just opened the floodgates for other MPs to cross the floor on same-sex marriage.

  11. Raaraa
    I got a call from Private Number on my mobile – which I let ring through. The message was “Hi my name is Anna and my daughter goes to a Catholic school in Victoria. My have”

    That was it – now I am intrigued what was truncated!

  14. Probyn and 7.30 still spruiking for Conski for all it’s worth, despite the ‘powerful teachers’ unions trying to block it”

    I’m presuming that those teacher unions are so powerful that they don’t need to give them a chance to appear.

  15. According to https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/20/malcolm-turnbull-leaves-open-alternative-to-clean-energy-target?CMP=share_btn_tw

    The Minerals Council of Australia, a Finkel review critic, has been lobbying government backbenchers this week for consideration of a reverse auction scheme to deal with the dispatchable power issue.

    The chairman of the Coalition’s backbench energy and environment committee, Craig Kelly – a critic of the clean energy target proposed by the Finkel review – told Guardian Australia the government needed to consider implementing reverse auctions to deploy dispatchable power into the grid.

    “We need more dispatchable power in New South Wales and Victoria and one potential way of doing this is a reverse auction to supply that power into the grid,” Kelly said on Monday.

    The Liberal MP said the reverse auction scheme would need to be set with an emissions intensity threshold to allow high-efficiency coal to bid into the system but he said coal could be outbid by wind power with gas back-up, or large-scale solar with battery back-up.

    On Tuesday, Turnbull told reporters Aemo may recommend a reverse auction scheme to the government “consistent with practice in many other jurisdictions, including the United States and the UK and Germany and others”.

    But he denied his new brief for Aemo was a clear signal the government had either dumped, or was paving the way to dump Finkel’s clean energy target.

    “I wouldn’t analyse it in that way if I was you,” the prime minister said.

    Having lobbied for consideration of the reverse auction scheme, the Minerals Council of Australia welcomed Turnbull’s announcement on Tuesday.

    So, how would “a reverse auction scheme to deal with the dispatchable power issue” work? As it’s being backed by the MCA I’m assuming it doesn’t favour renewables (or gas).

  17. bemused @ #912 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 7:30 pm

    barney in go dau @ #910 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 7:23 pm

    bemused @ #905 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 7:17 pm

    The US uses “Yield” too.
    I prefer it. Simpler.

    I’d never noticed this on TV or films.

    I noticed it when I was in the US and drove around a bit.
    Can’t recall if it was in Massachusetts, California or both. Back in the 198o’s.

    Never been to the States, but Wikipedia list 14 countries that use it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yield_sign

  20. barney in go dau @ #917 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 7:49 pm

    bemused @ #912 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 7:30 pm

    barney in go dau @ #910 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 7:23 pm

    bemused @ #905 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 7:17 pm

    The US uses “Yield” too.
    I prefer it. Simpler.

    I’d never noticed this on TV or films.

    I noticed it when I was in the US and drove around a bit.
    Can’t recall if it was in Massachusetts, California or both. Back in the 198o’s.

    Never been to the States, but Wikipedia list 14 countries that use it.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yield_sign

    I never cease to be amazed by what is in Wikipedia.

  21. British speed limit signs can be confusing for foreigners. The Brits use the same style as in Europe and Australia but in mph rather than km/h. I wonder how many Brits driving on the continent see “60” and travel at nearly 100km/h rather than 60km/h?

  22. citizen @ #921 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 8:00 pm

    British speed limit signs can be confusing for foreigners. The Brits use the same style as in Europe and Australia but in mph rather than km/h. I wonder how many Brits driving on the continent see “60” and travel at nearly 100km/h rather than 60km/h?

    And on the wrong side of the road too.

  23. https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/06/18/newspoll-53-47-labor-5/comment-page-19/#comment-2600079

    Most British speedometers, with old cars being the main exception, have both mph and km/h on the dial. Mainland Europe also drives on the right, unlike the UK, helping remind UK drivers they are not in mph-land (although this is not the case in more recently metricated Ireland (and Malta and Cypress, presuming they are metric)). The metric nature on European speed limits is also well known in the UK.

  24. Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey:

    Labor would be perfectly happy for the issue to remain unresolved at the next election, just as the Coalition was happy to ensure the problem of asylum seekers remained unresolved. For all the claims that Turnbull has, by co-opting David Gonski himself, neutralised schools funding, the entire issue remains one that Labor owns.

    The Greens, who have had no difficulties agreeing to back the government in the past on small matters like changes to Senate voting or company tax transparency, appear unable to come to a position despite having the government keen to do a deal, even if it costs some serious money in expediting the rollout of the full funding model in coming years. Any decision from the Greens will be tomorrow, at the earliest. On the positive side for the government, One Nation has said they’ll back the package, despite Pauline Hanson making ridiculous — even by her standards — proposals to force schools to punish students more.

    Embracing Gonski and taking the hard decision to cut spending on an over-funded private school sector was always a risk for Turnbull and his minister Simon Birmingham. If it doesn’t come off this week, it might become increasingly problematic. But there are still two and a half sitting days to go, and maybe some detention on Friday if there’s the possibility of late deal. Much rides on it.

    This appears to be yet another thing Turnbull has fudged. And what on earth are the Greens doing? If they support the bills just vote for them, but stop this ridiculous posturing and prevaricating presumably in an attempt to claim the high moral ground.

  28. This could be big and have far-reaching ramifications.

    The Supreme Court announced on Monday that it would consider whether partisan gerrymandering violates the Constitution, potentially setting the stage for a ruling that could for the first time impose limits on a practice that has helped define American politics since the early days of the Republic.

    The term gerrymander was coined after Elbridge Gerry, Massachusetts’s governor, signed an 1812 law that included a voting district shaped like a salamander to help the electoral prospects of his party. Over the centuries, lawmakers have become ever more sophisticated in redrawing legislative maps after each decennial census, carving out oddly shaped districts for state legislatures and the House of Representatives that favor their parties’ candidates.

    While the Supreme Court has struck down voting districts as racial gerrymanders, it has never disallowed a legislative map because of partisan gerrymandering.

    The new case is an appeal of a decision striking down the legislative map for the Wisconsin State Assembly drawn after Republicans gained control of the state’s government in 2010. The decision was the first from a federal court in more than 30 years to reject a voting map as an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/19/us/politics/justices-to-hear-major-challenge-to-partisan-gerrymandering.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

  30. bemused @ #901 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 7:06 pm

    guytaur @ #889 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 6:50 pm

    Bemused
    To be fair. Rudd like Shorten has changed his mind. I have not heard what Gillard thinks now.
    I think its good that we know the next time Labor is in power its going to happen.

    Rudd used to engage in conspicuous God bothering with pressers outside a church and he spoke at some convention of ACL.
    The first barely excusable, the second unforgivable.
    Gillard? Well, what can I say without rousing the cult from its slumbers.

    To be fair to FPMJG she was a woman, an atheist and a progressive. In the eyes of the shock jocks and L/NP it could only have been worse if she was a woman of colour.

  32. I know this is somewhat off topic, but I am intrigued by the various rules and customs dictating what side of the escalator to stand, so that others in a hurry may pass. When visiting a foreign place for the first time I try to check what is the rule/custom to avoid upsetting some shopper or commuter in a hurry.

  33. bemused @ #918 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 7:53 pm

    The NBN spokes person on 7.30 is the same one Jon Faine had.
    Hopeless.

    I’m glad to hear he was hopeless. The worse the L/NP and their stooges sell the NBN, the better Labor’s chances of replacing it with something better in the not too distant future.

    Disclosure:
    * NBN is “planning” FTTP in my street

  34. grimace @ #930 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 8:23 pm

    bemused @ #901 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 7:06 pm

    guytaur @ #889 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 6:50 pm

    Bemused
    To be fair. Rudd like Shorten has changed his mind. I have not heard what Gillard thinks now.
    I think its good that we know the next time Labor is in power its going to happen.

    Rudd used to engage in conspicuous God bothering with pressers outside a church and he spoke at some convention of ACL.
    The first barely excusable, the second unforgivable.
    Gillard? Well, what can I say without rousing the cult from its slumbers.

    To be fair to FPMJG she was a woman, an atheist and a progressive. In the eyes of the shock jocks and L/NP it could only have been worse if she was a woman of colour.

    She couldn’t hide being a woman but she did a good job of hiding the rest.

  35. Confessions,

    Thanks for that Keane analysis.

    The MSM really are blinkered in their thinking. If Turnbull does get something through the Senate this week it will be a mad dogs breakfast of hastily agreed to amendments. As such it will please very few if any of the education sector stakeholders. Placate the Catholics and you anger the independents, placate both and the AEU and states and territories up in arms. Cave to the greens demands for greater Catholic transparency up she all goes. Agree to greater oversight of the public school sector and agree to legislate a set funding percentage by states and territories without any consultation or COAG then up she goes. And so on and so on.

    Affected sectors will campaign against the government all the way through to the next election. Either the campaigns will be centred on fighting against any half arsed education policy introduced or the campaigns will be centred on arguing for the full rolled Gonski and increased funding as proposed by labor if Turnbull gets nothing through and follows through on his threat to renege on the current negotiated agreements signed in 2013.

    Whatever happens over the next two days education will remain a hot button election issue. All because Turnbull chose to play politics and tried to rush through a pile of shit with no sector input.

    Turnbull has tried to put lipstick on a pig but it is still a pig.

    Cheers.

    If Turnbull gets nothing through then the

  36. The OneNation economic policy is based on the last crackpot idea heard. Malcolm Roberts is able to churn out crackpot ideas at an impressive rate, such as Agenda21, soverign citizenship and the Rothchilds climate change conspiracy.

  37. Poroti
    Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 7:19 pm
    mari
    Check out the
    Abbott rat lol
    I did always so much on Rome’s cartoons am down having lunch at my favourite restaurant here in milos mussels cooked in Greece’s favourite drink… guess What??

  38. grimace @ #933 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 8:27 pm

    bemused @ #918 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 7:53 pm

    The NBN spokes person on 7.30 is the same one Jon Faine had.
    Hopeless.

    I’m glad to hear he was hopeless. The worse the L/NP and their stooges sell the NBN, the better Labor’s chances of replacing it with something better in the not too distant future.
    Disclosure:
    * NBN is “planning” FTTP in my street

    She. A woman. No clue about anything technical.

  39. sprocket_ @ #936 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 8:30 pm

    The OneNation economic policy is based on the last crackpot idea heard. Malcolm Roberts is able to churn out crackpot ideas at an impressive rate, such as Agenda21, soverign citizenship and the Rothchilds climate change conspiracy.

    Obviously he listens to 2GB.

  43. Doyley:

    To be fair to Keane the main thrust of his article is that Turnbull needs a Senate win on their Gonski bills. Looks like it’s all going to come down to the Greens when they announce their position tomorrow at the earliest.

  44. Latest in the school funding mess:

    Melbourne Archbishop Denis Hart intervenes in schools war, asks to meet PM

    James Massola Matthew Knott

    Australia’s most senior Catholic cleric has intervened in the war over school funding to seek an urgent meeting with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull before the government’s Gonski 2.0 changes come to a Senate vote.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/melbourne-archbishop-denis-hart-intervenes-in-schools-war-asks-to-meet-pm-20170620-gwuyp7.html

  45. Mari:

    Ouzo is THE most disgusting-tasting liquor going around! But it sounds like you’re having a ball. I’m so jealous.

  46. Mari
    Mussels and ouzo ?!! Does the combo ‘work’ ? By the way when it comes to aniseed flavour go for Star Anise waaaay smoother than Anise.

  48. Can someone on PB tell me the correct usage for what the LNP are doing to the Finkel report?
    Unfinkel,
    Definkel,
    Refinkel,
    Confinkel,
    Exfinkel?

    If the CET goes off for a long review we could say it has been
    rip van finkled

  49. confessions @ #929 Tuesday, June 20, 2017 at 8:17 pm

    Adrian:
    I’ve noticed over the last 12 to 18 months Labor have amped up its Facebook presence.

    I note the comments of fellow bludgers that Labor gets very few appearances on the ABC, and I agree with Confessions that Labor has really ramped up its social media presence.

    I wonder if the drop in ABC appearances is deliberate and a ramp up in social media use(including the “broadcasting” of Labor events), email campaigns and field campaigning events like town halls is a deliberate communications strategy by Labor HQ?

  50. Confessions,

    Fair enough. But the MSM including Keane are still talking about Turnbull winning by getting something through the Senate. They are pushing hard and pumping up Turnbull having a win.

    Nothing Turnbull does from here on will be a win.

    Anyway, we shall see how it goes and where this debacle lands.

    Have a great night.

    Cheers.

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