Conclusion. I kind of lost interest in live blogging after the previous post, but nearly 24 hours on from the closure of polling, only one seat remains to be declared, and the result if Conservatives 318 (-12), Labour 261 (+29), Scottish Nationalists 35 (-21), Liberal Democrats 12 (+4), Plaid Cymru 4 (+1), Green 1 (-) and, of the Northern Ireland contingent, Democratic Unionist 10 (+2), Sinn Fein 7 (+3) and independent 1 (-). The seat that remains to be called is the normally blue-ribbon constituency of Kensington in London, which is on to its third recount after going down to the wire as a result of the metropolitan backlash against the Conservatives. The first two counts reportedly had Labour winning by 36 and 39 votes. As Sinn Fein members don’t take their seats, the magic number is 322, and the Conservatives will be relying on the Democratic Unionist Party to reach it. Three parties represented in the previous parliament have emerged empty-handed: Northern Ireland’s Social Democratic & Labour Party and Ulster Unionist Party, who won three and two seats in 2015, and UKIP, who won one.
Excluding Kensington, the vote shares are Conservative 42.4% (+5.5%), Labour 40.0% (+9.5%) and Liberal Democrats 7.4% (-0.5%). Line honours among the pollsters clearly go to Survation, whose final poll had it at Conservatives 41.3%, Labour 40.4% and Liberal Democrats 7.8%, which was the narrowest Conservative lead out of the nine pollsters on the British Polling Council. YouGov seemed to have it right earlier, but squibbed it with a late methodology change that herded to the Conservatives, their feelings presumably hurt by this sort of thing. The overall bias of the BPC pollsters to the Conservatives most likely reflected a reluctance to believe the age profile of the voting population would be much different from 2015, whereas Survation were more inclined to take respondents at their word as to whether they would vote. Outside the BPC tent, SurveyMonkey did better than all but one of those within in recording a 42-38 lead to the Conservatives; and Qriously’s 4% error, in this case in favour of Labour, was bettered only by Survation and Kantar.
UPDATE: Mike Smithson of Political Betting points out that the polling figures exclude Northern Ireland, whereas the numbers quoted above do not, and hence dampen the results for all concerned. The proper base from which the pollsters should be judged is Conservative 43.5%, Labour 41.0%, Liberal Democrats 7.6%.
Once again, the exit poll overseen Professor John Curtice more than earned its keep, coming in at 41% apiece for the Conservatives and Labour, and projecting 314 seats for the Conservatives, 266 for Labour, 34 for the Scottish Nationalists and 14 for the Liberal Democrats. Immediate reaction to the exit poll in 2010, 2015 and 2017 was that it surely must be underestimating, respectively, the Liberal Democrats, Labour and Conservatives, but each time it came up smiling.
4.36am. After all the hype, Amber Rudd hangs on in Hastings & Rye.
4.23am. Plymouth, Sutton & Devonport now a declared Labour gain from the Conservatives, overturning a 1.1% margin.
4.20am. Alex Salmond loses his seat of Gordon to the Conservatives, in another blow to the SNP.
3.57am. Northern Ireland’s Labour-aligned party has now lost all of its three seats.
3.50am. Lineball result in Amber Rudd’s seat of Hastings leads to recount.
3.37am. Kingston on the fringe of London adds to scattered Liberal Democrats gains around the place from the Conservatives.
3.31am. Someone on BBC says projections point to 3% Conservative lead on the vote, suggesting Survation probably the best performing pollster.
3.29am. Eastbourne another Liberal Democrats gain from the Conservatives.
3.17am. BBC analyst says Labour boilover now expected in Kent seat of Canterbury, with a surge of young voters apparently set to overturn 18.3% Conservative margin. Labour has also gained the Midlands seat of Peterborough (4.1% margin) in a squeaker. In other close result news, the SNP have seen off the Conservatives by 21 votes in Perth & North Perthshire, against the prediction of the exit poll.
3.02am. Labour’s surprise win in the Suffolk seat of Ipswich, mooted earlier in the night, is now confirmed. But in Northern Ireland, the Labour-aligned Social Democratic and Labour Party has lost two of its three seats — one to Sinn Fein, one to the Unionists.
2.59am. Now eight confirmed losses for the SNP: four to the Conservatives, three to Labour, one to the Liberal Democrats. The BBC is projecting them to drop from 56 seats out of 59 to 32.
2.57am. Bristol North West a non-London Labour gain from the Conservatives.
2.54am. Knife-edge Conservative seat of Gower in Wales goes to Labour, not unpredictably. London seat of Twickenham goes from Conservative to the Liberal Democrats, presumably the beneficiary of heavy duty tactical voting.
2.46am. Labour gains Sheffield Hallam from former Liberal Democrats leader Nick Clegg, rated a 33% chance by the exit poll.
2.42am. SNP casualty list lengthens with Liberal Democrat gain of Dunbartonshire East, which was anticipated by the exit poll.
2.38am. Better news for the Conservatives from Southport in north-western England, which they have gained from the Libeal Democrats, which the exit poll rated only a 10% possibility.
2.27am. Midlothian now goes from SNP to Labour, against the prediction of the exit poll.
2.25am. Conservatives win Ochil & Perthshire South, of which exit poll said this: “the Conservatives have a 31% chance of victory, Labour has a 23% chance of victory, the SNP has a 46% chance of victory”. So SNP fairly consistently under-performing the exit poll.
2.19am. Conservatives gain Moray from SNP, as anticipated by exit poll.
2.16am. Conservative ministers confident no more of the exit poll being wrong.
2.11am. Another double-digit swing in London turns the marginal Labour seat of Ealing into a safe one.
2.06am. Stockton South, rated as lineball by the exit poll, goes to Labour.
2.02am. Labour win confirmed in Battersea with 10% swing.
1.58am. Conservatives gain Scottish seat of Angus from SNP — picked by exit poll, but talked up as a shock by the BBC presenter.
1.45am. Another double digit swing to Labour in London, this time in the Conservative seat of Putney. Keep in mind that swings are calculated differently in British parlance, such that a 10% swing overturns a 20% margin. So these results are consistent with Labour being competitive or better in Battersea (15.6%) or even Kensington (21.1%), both the subject of excited Labour chatter.
1.41am. Labour gains Welsh margin Vale of Clwyd with swing of 3.5%.
1.35am. Exit poll looking better now — talk even that Labour will outperform it.
1.30am. Young SNP firebrand Mhairi Black retains Paisley & Renfrewshire South.
1.25am. First result from London is Labour-held Tooting, where Labour gets a swing of 10.6%.
1.20am. The Rutherglen gain by Labour from the SNP was not predicted by the exit poll, which had Edinburgh North & Leith as their only gain in Scotland. BBC pundit says Labour expects to win Sheffield Hallam from former Liberal Democrats leader Nick Clegg — this was too close to call in the exit poll. Other two mooted Labour gains she mentions were anticipated by poll.
1.13am. 4.5% swing to Labour in their safe Welsh seat of Llanelli; Labour narrowly gains Rutherglen & Hamilton West from SNP, the first declared result to change hands.
1.11am. Labour now expecting to make gains in Wales, after disappointing Conservatives failure in Wrexham.
12.59am. I belatedly observe a 1.4% Conservative swing in the north-west England seat of Workington. Someone earlier said the picture got better for the Conservatives with every foot you travelled north.
12.53am. Status quo result in Labour-held north-eastern seat of Durham, where the Conservatives might have vaguely hoped they could still gain based on early results from the region, although 7.7% margin made it a big ask. Still, the sort of seat the Conservatives were expecting to win going into the election.
12.38am. 2.2% swing to Labour in Broxbourne and 0.2% swing in Nuneaton, two middle England seats. But mounting talk of a big result for Labour in London, including a win in Battersea, margin 15.6%.
12.32am. “Entirely possible we will still get an overall majority”, is the less-than-bullish assessment of Conservative heavyweight Liam Fox.
12.28am. 2.6% swing to Labour in Kettering, a Conservative seat in the Midlands.
12.25am. BBC pundit says Labour said to be confident of the Suffolk seat of Ipswich, margin of 7.7%, and four gains in Scotland.
12.21am. Newcastle North swings 0.5% to Labour, which is better than their regional form.
12.16am. Specifically, HuffPost UK politics editor Paul Waugh says Labour is expected to win Kensington, which the Conservatives won 52.2% to 31.1% in 2015.
12.08am. Washginton and Sunderland West swings 2.2% to Conservatives, in line with regional trend. However, there’s excited talk on Twitter about Labour’s prospects in blue-ribbon constituencies in London.
11.59pm. Bad result for Labour from Newcastle Central, good one from North Swindon. Long night ahead.
11.47pm. Third seat is Sunderland South: 2.2% swing to Conservatives. BBC analyst indicates Labour worried exit poll wrong because Conservatives outperforming it on postal votes.
11.33pm. BBC reporter says Labour remain excited about Hastings and Rye, held by Home Secretary Amber Rudd on a margin of 9.4%, which wasn’t picked as a Labour gain by the exit poll. It was a middlingly good seat for UKIP in 2015, and a bit above average for age.
11.23pm. Exit poll broken down by age: 63-27 to Labour among 18-34; 43-43 among 35-54; 59-23 to Conservative among 55+.
11.20pm. Conservative sources expressing confidence the exit poll is wrong. But as Antony Green points out, the picture in the two constituencies that are in is complicated by the steep decline there of UKIP.
11.08pm. A second pro-Brexit Labour-held constituency, Houghton and Sunderland South, has the Conservatives outperforming the exit poll, with a 2% swing in their favour.
11.03pm. First result, from Newcastle upon Tyne Central, records 2% swing to Labour, which is less than the exit poll anticipated.
10.21pm. Britain Elects on Twitter: “Amber Rudd in trouble in Hastings & Rye (2015 Con +9), so says the BBC.”
10.19pm. Markets respond.
10.11pm. Labour MP John McDonnell “sounds rather doubtful that the exit poll is right”, at least in the view of Lord Ashcroft.
10.08pm. Antony Green points out the feted exit poll from 215 in fact under-predicted the Conservatives by 15 seats.
10.04pm. Another British election, another stimulating exit poll result. Conservatives to lose majority with 314 seats (326 required for majority) to 266 for Labour, 34 for Scottish Nationalists and 14 for the Liberal Democrats.
9.56pm. The Sun’s political editor on Twitter: “Scotland now looking really good for Tories, I’m told 10-12 gains from the SNP possible”.
9.55pm GMT. The final reading of the BludgerTrack UK poll aggregate: Conservative 43.0, Labour 36.8, Liberal Democrats 7.6, UKIP 4.2. Coming soon: the moment of high drama that is the announcement of the exit poll.
“Ray (UK)
Friday, June 9, 2017 at 3:51 pm
Big swings to Labour in Cornwall, Labour getting good second places but I think the Tories will clean up there”
Given the swings in seats near it, Cornwall North might still be in play I hope.
Problem for Tories is that the pro-EU group will now have more power. That must be one reason why May needed/looked for a bigger majority. Plus opportunism.
Darn
The bookies ae already taking bets on who will replace May.
Goldsmith back by 45 should see the LDP finish up on 12
Looks like William got so excited after Amber Rudd got elected that he has ducked off?
Tories win Richmond Park by 45 votes
Is there any prize for last seat declared that the last 6 are holding out for?
Labour hold Dudley North by 22 votes
Cons got 15.6% from the UKIP drop of 18.5 percent, but fall 22 votes short.
Labor win
Last five seats to call are all Tories. Kensington and say North Cornwall to flip would be nice to end the count.
Four seats left in Cornwall, one in London
If Tories clean up they get 319
There was talk earlier that the London seat, Kensington, would go Labour
I need to go to bed, bye all been an interesting night
A drover’s dog could have gotten that kind of result with that horrid election performance by the Conservatives.
I just hope the LD’s can get one of Cornwall seats.
Shame Scotland went the way it did but i guess the last result was unsustainable.
Next election within 12 months?
Dan Gulberry.
So going to furnish us with your list of pro and anti corbynites and elecyion predictions?
I confess that I didnt expect the Tories really to lose. I said at worst a hung parliament but that was like less than 1% chance of occuring.
Why does Sinn Fein abstain? Apolitical anarchists?
It will be fun if the last 5 seats all go to Labor, leaving Tory + DUP one short of a majority on 324. But only works with no abstentions.
And does this mean that the ranking Labor party insiders will stop bitching about Corbyn now?
AN analyis of what happened: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/09/jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-landslide-manifesto-youth-vote-conservative-campaign
After 4 recounts in Kensington, which was a 20%+ Tory constituency, they’ve called it a morning and will come back later to count for a 5th time! Labour candidate likely up by 30-40 votes
Sinn Fein are deeply tied to the Irish independence movement and also (arguably) the IRA. They reject the authority of the government. Actually using their seats would be hypocritical and in conflict with their ideology.
Boy, this election sure does feel familiar, eh?
A R,
Why does Sinn Fein abstain?
To sit in the British Parliament you have to pledge allegiance to the Queen and the House of Windsor.
Sinn Fein will never do that.
Another problem for the Tories could be their new Scottish MPs. There seems to be a different vibe coming from there which might cause some issues?
Lukey @ #368 Friday, June 9th, 2017 – 4:43 pm
I call shenanigans on that. One recount if it’s close. Two if the recount changes the outcome and it’s still close. Whomever gets 2 of the 3 counts is the winner.
Sinn Fein doesnt recognise NI as part of the UK and seeks Irish reunification. Sitting at Wetsminster effectively means you recognise its dominion over NI
I just hope the LD’s can get one of Cornwall seats.
Close by no cigar in St Ives.
AR
Should they? He still failed to take the majority of the working class with him. They managed to recoup previous losses, but that doesn’t make him a great leader. Just better than the already low expectations of him.
Labour can move forward, or they can degenerate into squabbling again. Both seem likely.
Imagine Labour would’ve strolled in if the Blairites hadn’t been such a handbrake.
Seth @ #376 Friday, June 9th, 2017 – 4:52 pm
Probably. Corbyn has shown he can motivate young voters. That’s important. It helped Obama sail to two fairly easy wins, and its lack helped ensure that Hillary lost to an unpopular opponent who was eminently unqualified to hold any sort of elected office.
I think if Labor stops squabbling and works together to paint the Tories as friends of Trump, the working class vote will sort itself out in due time. His scandal-ridden incompetence appears to be driving a solid leftwise swing.
Corbyn has more votes than Blair got in 2001 and 2005
Corbyn 40.1% of the vote better than Blair in 2005
Winners and Losers.
Winners
Jeremy Corbyn.
The man who was supposed to be the biggest casualty of May’s early election call ends as easily it’s biggest winner. Mocked, ridiculed, and condemned as unelectable. People who aren’t members of his Parliamentary party said even nastier things. Corbyn now stands unchallenged as the leader of his party. He has energized the base, recruited thousands more supporters, crafted a policy platform that resonates with the wider community and dragged Labour’s vote back into the 40s. Still a lot of work for him to do, but for the first time will be doing it without having the majority of his MPs wanting to neck him. Expect lots of mea culpas from the Blairites as they look to try and get back on the winning team. Labour disunity will be put aside for some time now.
Labour Rank and File.
With Corbyn they took control of their party and got people actually keen to vote Labour. It will be some time before Labour abandons the idea of being a grass roots party to try and appease the RW Press.
EU27.
Europe holds the whip hand even more than they already did. The UK clearly has no idea of what it wants from Brexit and they will be going into negotiations lead by a PM with no authority from a party hopelessly split on the issue.
DUP and Sinn Fein
Northern Ireland is now a 2 party system with these two. DUP now holds the whip hand on the new government and both will be strengthened in trying to get their way on the Assembly.
Neutral.
LDP, Plaid and Greens. Held their own or made minor gains.
Losers.
Theresa May.
The biggest loser of the night in a close run field. Called an unnecessary election in absolutely unquestioned command of her party and the Prime Ministership. Will be lucky to stay PM more than a few months. Credibility absolutely shredded. The figure of ridicule Corbyn was supposed to be.
UKIP
A very close second to May the Kippers are gone. From basically winning Brexit to a wipeout. Like May they’ve learnt the wisdom of the aphorism ‘be careful what you wish for’.
The Pollsters.
In a near quadruple dead heat for biggest loser the UK pollsters again prove that their electoral system is just too hard for them.
The Media.
Pipped by a nostril for a placing the media one again showed they are a bunch of self absorbed dicks. The nutjob press especially went full retard on Corbyn, but that’s to be expected. They all dismissed Corbyn as unelectable though. Maybe they will say ‘well he wasn’t elected was he?’, but that would be disingenuous even for your average journo. Shit happens outside their bubble, but those dopes will be the last to know.
Other Losers
SNP.
The SNP look like the biggest losers on paper, but 2015 was really a special circumstance. Their push for a 2nd independence referendum cost them seats by the looks, but they still clearly won more than half the seats in Scotland which outside of 2015 is a remarkable result.
Blairites.
Their efforts to destroy Corbyn have left them looking foolish. Had they got on board and tried to help him succeed they might even be getting ready to take government today. Will be feeling sheepish and the smart ones will be looking to build bridges with the base.
Conservatives
They will attempt to load up the blame on the Maybot (not without justification), but their agenda has been repudiated by pretty much everyone under 60. Unless they can sort out a new effective leader, dump a lot of austerity garbage, and work out a shared vision for Brexit they are in real danger of facing the voters again soon. They’ll enjoy that experience even less than this one.
UK.
They’ve been saved from the worst excesses of a Tory government, so that’s a plus. But they will be governed by a hopelessly riven party without authority or power just when the most momentous negotiations in generations are set to take place that will shape their future. If they’re lucky they’ll muddle through and Europe will go soft on them. I don’t think they’re that lucky.
Apparently more than 70% of the 18-24 demographic came out to vote.
Corbyn did pretty well considering even his own party didn’t want him. Goes to show that when you talk about issues that matter to voters, you win votes. Who would have thought.
Meanwhile I think I’ll still be waiting a while before the £ is strong enough for me to want to get my UK money over to Australia. But I’m hoping that if hard Brexit doesn’t happen, this might be better for their currency
Surely “Sir” Lynton Crosby deserves a special mention in the ‘losers’ column?
Excellent summary Ratsak. Thanks.
Fuck me, 70 percent! What was the record before, 25-30?
From Guardian’s election coverage re younger voting turnout. Not near 70%, according to this: quote:
The first evidence of turnout levels among younger voters is that it rose 12 points to 56% of 18- to 34-year-olds since 2015, according to an “exit poll” by the NME/The Stream.
The survey, based on 1,354 respondents, confirms that a majority of younger voters opted for Labour, with 60% of under-35s saying they had voted Labour.
This rose to 66% of 18- to 24-year olds saying they had voted to back Jeremy Corbyn’s party. The survey found that 36% were first-time voters and that half went to the polls with a friend or family member, with Brexit the main factor in their decision to vote.
Mike Williams, NME’s editor-in-chief, said: “A lot of talk during this election has been about whether young people would bother to get out and vote. They did, in huge numbers, and on a scale not seen in the UK in recent years. We at NME are incredibly proud to see this and it’s further proof that young people in the UK are massively engaged with politics in 2017.”
Ratsak, that is an excellent summation of the winners and losers.
Millennial, thank you for tracking the outcomes in those ten marginal Tory-Labour contests. Your scenarios were a helpful guide to interpreting the results.
It is very impressive that Jeremy Corbyn was able to lead his party to 40 percent of the vote, just two percentage points behind the Tories. The media and and most of the Parliamentary Labour Party had decided: “Before the might of Mordor there can be no victory.” But Jeremy Corbyn persisted, and he deserves immense credit for making democratic socialism a mainstream policy platform.
Excellent summary Ratsak. Thanks.
I concur.
From swamprat earlier:
‘To make Scottish MP’s second class MP’s the Tories voted in EVEL (English Votes for English Law).
(They failed to introduce SVSL (Scottish Votes for Scottish Laws) but that’s another matter.)
So the new Scottish Tory MPs will be unable to vote for English laws.
This must affect the ability of the Tories to form a majority.’
How strange, I guess that can happen when you don’t have a constitution.
rex douglas @ #377 Friday, June 9, 2017 at 4:59 pm
Imagine, if Labor didn’t have such an unpopular leader, Labor would have, like, 60-40 more seats than the Tories.
😉 😉 😉
If only Labour had been led by a wishy-washy centrist offering Tory-lite policies. Then they would have won for sure!!!!!!
And I concur……those “Labour” supporters who just wanted “Tory Lite” have probably cost Labour a closer contest if not victory. While the Left manifesto of Corbyn has been described as populous, he actually spoke to those who were hurting…………not the nice people of Cheltenham. And for two years plus, the Tory press have hammered Corbyn and it is they who have the egg spattered all over their combined faces.
Seth
Friday, June 9, 2017 at 4:24 pm
A drover’s dog could have gotten that kind of result with that horrid election performance by the Conservatives.
——————-
Seth are you a relative of Rex?
Interesting quick analysis of the election… it seems the constituencies that swung hardest from the Conservatives to Labour were the *wealthy* constituencies:
*tended to swing the hardest, I mean.
John Reidy
The same issue applies to the NI MPs.
So if a vote comes up on e.g. the English NHS the NI and Scottish Tory MPs have no Parliamentary vote.
Ratsak
You missed another winner: foxes will be safe for another term 🙂
Keep in mind in this day and age a lot of 18-24 year olds still live with their parents. Just because a constituency is wealthy doesn’t mean all of it’s inhabitants are. I wonder how much the youth vote affected the result in these constituencies. No facts here, just speculation as is my MO.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/09/catalonia-calls-independence-referendum-for-october-spain