Conclusion. I kind of lost interest in live blogging after the previous post, but nearly 24 hours on from the closure of polling, only one seat remains to be declared, and the result if Conservatives 318 (-12), Labour 261 (+29), Scottish Nationalists 35 (-21), Liberal Democrats 12 (+4), Plaid Cymru 4 (+1), Green 1 (-) and, of the Northern Ireland contingent, Democratic Unionist 10 (+2), Sinn Fein 7 (+3) and independent 1 (-). The seat that remains to be called is the normally blue-ribbon constituency of Kensington in London, which is on to its third recount after going down to the wire as a result of the metropolitan backlash against the Conservatives. The first two counts reportedly had Labour winning by 36 and 39 votes. As Sinn Fein members don’t take their seats, the magic number is 322, and the Conservatives will be relying on the Democratic Unionist Party to reach it. Three parties represented in the previous parliament have emerged empty-handed: Northern Ireland’s Social Democratic & Labour Party and Ulster Unionist Party, who won three and two seats in 2015, and UKIP, who won one.
Excluding Kensington, the vote shares are Conservative 42.4% (+5.5%), Labour 40.0% (+9.5%) and Liberal Democrats 7.4% (-0.5%). Line honours among the pollsters clearly go to Survation, whose final poll had it at Conservatives 41.3%, Labour 40.4% and Liberal Democrats 7.8%, which was the narrowest Conservative lead out of the nine pollsters on the British Polling Council. YouGov seemed to have it right earlier, but squibbed it with a late methodology change that herded to the Conservatives, their feelings presumably hurt by this sort of thing. The overall bias of the BPC pollsters to the Conservatives most likely reflected a reluctance to believe the age profile of the voting population would be much different from 2015, whereas Survation were more inclined to take respondents at their word as to whether they would vote. Outside the BPC tent, SurveyMonkey did better than all but one of those within in recording a 42-38 lead to the Conservatives; and Qriously’s 4% error, in this case in favour of Labour, was bettered only by Survation and Kantar.
UPDATE: Mike Smithson of Political Betting points out that the polling figures exclude Northern Ireland, whereas the numbers quoted above do not, and hence dampen the results for all concerned. The proper base from which the pollsters should be judged is Conservative 43.5%, Labour 41.0%, Liberal Democrats 7.6%.
Once again, the exit poll overseen Professor John Curtice more than earned its keep, coming in at 41% apiece for the Conservatives and Labour, and projecting 314 seats for the Conservatives, 266 for Labour, 34 for the Scottish Nationalists and 14 for the Liberal Democrats. Immediate reaction to the exit poll in 2010, 2015 and 2017 was that it surely must be underestimating, respectively, the Liberal Democrats, Labour and Conservatives, but each time it came up smiling.
4.36am. After all the hype, Amber Rudd hangs on in Hastings & Rye.
4.23am. Plymouth, Sutton & Devonport now a declared Labour gain from the Conservatives, overturning a 1.1% margin.
4.20am. Alex Salmond loses his seat of Gordon to the Conservatives, in another blow to the SNP.
3.57am. Northern Ireland’s Labour-aligned party has now lost all of its three seats.
3.50am. Lineball result in Amber Rudd’s seat of Hastings leads to recount.
3.37am. Kingston on the fringe of London adds to scattered Liberal Democrats gains around the place from the Conservatives.
3.31am. Someone on BBC says projections point to 3% Conservative lead on the vote, suggesting Survation probably the best performing pollster.
3.29am. Eastbourne another Liberal Democrats gain from the Conservatives.
3.17am. BBC analyst says Labour boilover now expected in Kent seat of Canterbury, with a surge of young voters apparently set to overturn 18.3% Conservative margin. Labour has also gained the Midlands seat of Peterborough (4.1% margin) in a squeaker. In other close result news, the SNP have seen off the Conservatives by 21 votes in Perth & North Perthshire, against the prediction of the exit poll.
3.02am. Labour’s surprise win in the Suffolk seat of Ipswich, mooted earlier in the night, is now confirmed. But in Northern Ireland, the Labour-aligned Social Democratic and Labour Party has lost two of its three seats — one to Sinn Fein, one to the Unionists.
2.59am. Now eight confirmed losses for the SNP: four to the Conservatives, three to Labour, one to the Liberal Democrats. The BBC is projecting them to drop from 56 seats out of 59 to 32.
2.57am. Bristol North West a non-London Labour gain from the Conservatives.
2.54am. Knife-edge Conservative seat of Gower in Wales goes to Labour, not unpredictably. London seat of Twickenham goes from Conservative to the Liberal Democrats, presumably the beneficiary of heavy duty tactical voting.
2.46am. Labour gains Sheffield Hallam from former Liberal Democrats leader Nick Clegg, rated a 33% chance by the exit poll.
2.42am. SNP casualty list lengthens with Liberal Democrat gain of Dunbartonshire East, which was anticipated by the exit poll.
2.38am. Better news for the Conservatives from Southport in north-western England, which they have gained from the Libeal Democrats, which the exit poll rated only a 10% possibility.
2.27am. Midlothian now goes from SNP to Labour, against the prediction of the exit poll.
2.25am. Conservatives win Ochil & Perthshire South, of which exit poll said this: “the Conservatives have a 31% chance of victory, Labour has a 23% chance of victory, the SNP has a 46% chance of victory”. So SNP fairly consistently under-performing the exit poll.
2.19am. Conservatives gain Moray from SNP, as anticipated by exit poll.
2.16am. Conservative ministers confident no more of the exit poll being wrong.
2.11am. Another double-digit swing in London turns the marginal Labour seat of Ealing into a safe one.
2.06am. Stockton South, rated as lineball by the exit poll, goes to Labour.
2.02am. Labour win confirmed in Battersea with 10% swing.
1.58am. Conservatives gain Scottish seat of Angus from SNP — picked by exit poll, but talked up as a shock by the BBC presenter.
1.45am. Another double digit swing to Labour in London, this time in the Conservative seat of Putney. Keep in mind that swings are calculated differently in British parlance, such that a 10% swing overturns a 20% margin. So these results are consistent with Labour being competitive or better in Battersea (15.6%) or even Kensington (21.1%), both the subject of excited Labour chatter.
1.41am. Labour gains Welsh margin Vale of Clwyd with swing of 3.5%.
1.35am. Exit poll looking better now — talk even that Labour will outperform it.
1.30am. Young SNP firebrand Mhairi Black retains Paisley & Renfrewshire South.
1.25am. First result from London is Labour-held Tooting, where Labour gets a swing of 10.6%.
1.20am. The Rutherglen gain by Labour from the SNP was not predicted by the exit poll, which had Edinburgh North & Leith as their only gain in Scotland. BBC pundit says Labour expects to win Sheffield Hallam from former Liberal Democrats leader Nick Clegg — this was too close to call in the exit poll. Other two mooted Labour gains she mentions were anticipated by poll.
1.13am. 4.5% swing to Labour in their safe Welsh seat of Llanelli; Labour narrowly gains Rutherglen & Hamilton West from SNP, the first declared result to change hands.
1.11am. Labour now expecting to make gains in Wales, after disappointing Conservatives failure in Wrexham.
12.59am. I belatedly observe a 1.4% Conservative swing in the north-west England seat of Workington. Someone earlier said the picture got better for the Conservatives with every foot you travelled north.
12.53am. Status quo result in Labour-held north-eastern seat of Durham, where the Conservatives might have vaguely hoped they could still gain based on early results from the region, although 7.7% margin made it a big ask. Still, the sort of seat the Conservatives were expecting to win going into the election.
12.38am. 2.2% swing to Labour in Broxbourne and 0.2% swing in Nuneaton, two middle England seats. But mounting talk of a big result for Labour in London, including a win in Battersea, margin 15.6%.
12.32am. “Entirely possible we will still get an overall majority”, is the less-than-bullish assessment of Conservative heavyweight Liam Fox.
12.28am. 2.6% swing to Labour in Kettering, a Conservative seat in the Midlands.
12.25am. BBC pundit says Labour said to be confident of the Suffolk seat of Ipswich, margin of 7.7%, and four gains in Scotland.
12.21am. Newcastle North swings 0.5% to Labour, which is better than their regional form.
12.16am. Specifically, HuffPost UK politics editor Paul Waugh says Labour is expected to win Kensington, which the Conservatives won 52.2% to 31.1% in 2015.
12.08am. Washginton and Sunderland West swings 2.2% to Conservatives, in line with regional trend. However, there’s excited talk on Twitter about Labour’s prospects in blue-ribbon constituencies in London.
11.59pm. Bad result for Labour from Newcastle Central, good one from North Swindon. Long night ahead.
11.47pm. Third seat is Sunderland South: 2.2% swing to Conservatives. BBC analyst indicates Labour worried exit poll wrong because Conservatives outperforming it on postal votes.
11.33pm. BBC reporter says Labour remain excited about Hastings and Rye, held by Home Secretary Amber Rudd on a margin of 9.4%, which wasn’t picked as a Labour gain by the exit poll. It was a middlingly good seat for UKIP in 2015, and a bit above average for age.
11.23pm. Exit poll broken down by age: 63-27 to Labour among 18-34; 43-43 among 35-54; 59-23 to Conservative among 55+.
11.20pm. Conservative sources expressing confidence the exit poll is wrong. But as Antony Green points out, the picture in the two constituencies that are in is complicated by the steep decline there of UKIP.
11.08pm. A second pro-Brexit Labour-held constituency, Houghton and Sunderland South, has the Conservatives outperforming the exit poll, with a 2% swing in their favour.
11.03pm. First result, from Newcastle upon Tyne Central, records 2% swing to Labour, which is less than the exit poll anticipated.
10.21pm. Britain Elects on Twitter: “Amber Rudd in trouble in Hastings & Rye (2015 Con +9), so says the BBC.”
10.19pm. Markets respond.
10.11pm. Labour MP John McDonnell “sounds rather doubtful that the exit poll is right”, at least in the view of Lord Ashcroft.
10.08pm. Antony Green points out the feted exit poll from 215 in fact under-predicted the Conservatives by 15 seats.
10.04pm. Another British election, another stimulating exit poll result. Conservatives to lose majority with 314 seats (326 required for majority) to 266 for Labour, 34 for Scottish Nationalists and 14 for the Liberal Democrats.
9.56pm. The Sun’s political editor on Twitter: “Scotland now looking really good for Tories, I’m told 10-12 gains from the SNP possible”.
9.55pm GMT. The final reading of the BludgerTrack UK poll aggregate: Conservative 43.0, Labour 36.8, Liberal Democrats 7.6, UKIP 4.2. Coming soon: the moment of high drama that is the announcement of the exit poll.
Ray – BBC report that Rudd in BIG TROUBLE
Can anyone recommend a good site for following the results?
Back again. Not a great deal of new info except some possibility of Exit polls wrong based on one seat so far. A long way to go but the next two hours will make it clear.
Any more news from you Ray ?
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-2017-40171454
WTR – Click on the BBC Live TV STream
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/jun/08/general-election-results-2017-uk-live-labour-tories-corbyn-may-election-results-live-news-line#comment-99996198
Guardian live blog
Antonbruckner11
I think they’ll need some off the radar gains in the South
Ausdavo
Both North East seats so far have the Tories outperforming the exit poll
Is the N.E. a harbinger (as it was with Brexit) or an outlier?
Sorry to be obtuse Ray, but who is “they” in this context?
Darn
They is Labour, I think the Tories are going to outperform the exit poll in the North so Labour will need to overperform in the South
Hope that makes sense
Didn’t watch the exit poll live, just watched it off the tape
Interesting that Dimbleby qualified the Scotland element somewhat, the exit poll has six Tory gains in Scotland
On the Beeb, Lib Dems worried about Nick Clegg in Sheffield
“SHOCK EXIT POLL!!” Exit poll fits YouGov seat-count prediction almost exactly! One polling company gets something right! Nobody saw that coming! Shock, amazement, SHOCK!
And a comment for Theresa – Ha ha ha, ha ha ha, ha ha ha, HAH! (Even if she gets a few more seats than the exit poll says, she’s gone backwards.)
Tomorrow’s headline – May resigns?
Yes, thanks Ray.
Tories outperform exit poll in Newcastle East
Labour outperform exit poll in Swindon in the South with a nearly 4% swing
At the start of the campaign, you could get $11 for betting on the conservatives losing their majority – now into $2.4. So close to a coin flip now according to the punters.
Ray – I’ve seen reports that Labour is doing better in seats than the You-Gov model (which had about a 4 per cent difference, I think).
After 5 results, currently a 1.5% swing to Labour from Tories
It may be the youth turn out whats done it.
Here’s an interesting comment:
“So far EVERY result has been better for Labour than the YouGov model predicted.
And that predicted only 302 seats for the Tories!”
Labour worried that Tories are outperforming the exit poll on postals apparently
Ides……..I think you have Exit Polls correctly pegged. They seem to work best when it is lay down misere with one side clearly winning from get-go. This is hardly the case in the UK with this election. It’s at times like this when our election process, despite the so-called simplicity of first-past-the-post and non-compulsory voting in the UK makes for what seems to make for quicker, more clear-cut outcomes here. On the other hand, our use of preference voting muddies the waters in Oz.
Conservatives now favored to lose their majority $1.95 on sportsbet.
SWamprat – Certainly wasn’t the murdoch press. Maybe the young in the UK have seized back their future from the gerentocaracy
Another 2% swing to Tories from Labour in Sunderland in the north east
Call me a pessimist but it’s starting to feel like deja vu all over again. Early optimism followed by a continual trend back toward the dark side. We saw it last time in the UK and also in the US election.
The good news though is that it is not going to be the wipe out May and her cocky party expected when they sprung this cynically motivated election; and as others have suggested she may be called on to resign when it’s all over, which would be a huge slap in the face for the Tories and their supporters.
What I am hoping for now is that they cannot muster an absolute majority, even if they’re only seat short. That at least would be something to cheer about.
Yougov projection Sunderland Central LAb 53 Con 33 UKIp 6 Actual 55.5 Lab Con 33 UKIP 5. Very accurate
Here’s the UK equivalent of poll bludger – worth monitoring the comments!
And if the Tories do better than even an exit poll suggests, what does that say about UK voters? That there are some Secret Snobs (euphemistically called Shy Tories) who lie even in an exit poll? Or that some of the 70+s are so muddled that they can’t remember how they voted 5 minutes earlier. Maybe voters should be given the Mini-Cog test (“apple, table, penny”, “no ifs, ands or buts”) before being allowed to vote.
Tricot:
I think AUS polls are a quite accurate compared to the UK. Mostly due to compulsory voting maintaining a high turnout. Where they fail is on preferences (ala last QLD election). The UK polls are currently all over the shop because of turnout issues.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9913/comment-page-26#comments
Oops – here it is. The comments make it clear that so far the Tories (in every clear seat) are behind the You-Gov model which would give the Tories 302 seats
Darn
I sort of agree with you….but…
I’d rather be getting swings in Swindon and the south where there’s lots of seats than the North East where there aren’t many
Tory grandee Ken Clarke predicts small overall majority
“… every declared seat …”
Ray – Ken Clarke didn’t sound very confident!
Jack – my feeling at the moment is that the tories will do worse than the exit poll, particularly when the focus turns towards the south and marginal remain areas.
Very interesting Anton. Not quite sure what to make of that.
0.6% swing to Tories from Labour in Newcastle North in the North East
BBC: “Sounds like Rudd and also Jane Ellison in Battersea both likely to lose out – two ministers losing their seats”
Amber Rudd is a cabinet minister. Her losing is big.
This talk of swings from Labour to the Tories is misleadingly. What is actually happening is the distribution of the Kipper vote that has collapsed.
May was banking on getting almost all of it, but early results are showing it being a bit all over, but Labour getting more than expected and Labour turnout being stronger than 15.
So swings to the Cons where they get UKIP votes, but not enough to overcome the extra votes Labour picks up from UKIP and enthusiasm aren’t important at all. It is only if the breakdown of the UKIP split turns red marginals blue that it matters.
I am feeling more optomistic. If Labour does better than YouGov predictions and i think the SNP will do better than 34 seats in Scotland.
It may be Corbyn PM.
Gossip that Labour are going to win Kensington in London (20% margin for Tories last time) WTF
On the first seven results, exit poll had swing 6.5% to Lab from Con
Actual swing is 0.5%
Tory insiders at CCHQ saying Tory Remainers stayed at home, one source says.”
“No deal is better than a bad deal” – she scared all the remainers to stay at home or vote for Labour.
“On the Beeb, Lib Dems worried about Nick Clegg in Sheffield”.
Is there a concern he might be reelected? It would be a great outcome for the LDP if Clegg were booted.
Also the swings are going to be regional. The reports from Labour have always indicated that Corbyn didn’t resonate in the ex-industrial North as much as in the big cities. So nothing in the results so far are indicating anything other than a long night.
Ladbrokes betting now has odds for PM on 1 July as May 1/2, Corbin 2/1, Boris 7/1 etc. How the worm turns.
Swing 2.5 % to Lab from Con in Kettering in the Midlands
Labour now saying they could gain four to six seats in Scotland (only one in exit poll)
Alex Salmond old SNP seat in doubt say Tories
Another Crosby-Textor masterpiece.
Possible Labour gain in Ipswich as per William above is another ‘extra’ to the exit poll
Conservative bloke on BBC looks like whistling past a graveyard. Almost conceding a hung parliament, if not deefeat.
I read on the uk poll someone who said a lot/some of the brexit vote was not about brexit but a protest against the status quo and when a Labour leader came along promising to tax the rich and invest in communities their concern over brexit went away.
And Tory remainers may have “stayed home”.
And the young came out in greater numbers.
All factors not good for the hard brexiteers.
That is extraordinary. Corbyn down to 2/1, which is about where Trump was immediately before the US election.
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