British election live

Live commentary of the British election count.

Conclusion. I kind of lost interest in live blogging after the previous post, but nearly 24 hours on from the closure of polling, only one seat remains to be declared, and the result if Conservatives 318 (-12), Labour 261 (+29), Scottish Nationalists 35 (-21), Liberal Democrats 12 (+4), Plaid Cymru 4 (+1), Green 1 (-) and, of the Northern Ireland contingent, Democratic Unionist 10 (+2), Sinn Fein 7 (+3) and independent 1 (-). The seat that remains to be called is the normally blue-ribbon constituency of Kensington in London, which is on to its third recount after going down to the wire as a result of the metropolitan backlash against the Conservatives. The first two counts reportedly had Labour winning by 36 and 39 votes. As Sinn Fein members don’t take their seats, the magic number is 322, and the Conservatives will be relying on the Democratic Unionist Party to reach it. Three parties represented in the previous parliament have emerged empty-handed: Northern Ireland’s Social Democratic & Labour Party and Ulster Unionist Party, who won three and two seats in 2015, and UKIP, who won one.

Excluding Kensington, the vote shares are Conservative 42.4% (+5.5%), Labour 40.0% (+9.5%) and Liberal Democrats 7.4% (-0.5%). Line honours among the pollsters clearly go to Survation, whose final poll had it at Conservatives 41.3%, Labour 40.4% and Liberal Democrats 7.8%, which was the narrowest Conservative lead out of the nine pollsters on the British Polling Council. YouGov seemed to have it right earlier, but squibbed it with a late methodology change that herded to the Conservatives, their feelings presumably hurt by this sort of thing. The overall bias of the BPC pollsters to the Conservatives most likely reflected a reluctance to believe the age profile of the voting population would be much different from 2015, whereas Survation were more inclined to take respondents at their word as to whether they would vote. Outside the BPC tent, SurveyMonkey did better than all but one of those within in recording a 42-38 lead to the Conservatives; and Qriously’s 4% error, in this case in favour of Labour, was bettered only by Survation and Kantar.

UPDATE: Mike Smithson of Political Betting points out that the polling figures exclude Northern Ireland, whereas the numbers quoted above do not, and hence dampen the results for all concerned. The proper base from which the pollsters should be judged is Conservative 43.5%, Labour 41.0%, Liberal Democrats 7.6%.

Once again, the exit poll overseen Professor John Curtice more than earned its keep, coming in at 41% apiece for the Conservatives and Labour, and projecting 314 seats for the Conservatives, 266 for Labour, 34 for the Scottish Nationalists and 14 for the Liberal Democrats. Immediate reaction to the exit poll in 2010, 2015 and 2017 was that it surely must be underestimating, respectively, the Liberal Democrats, Labour and Conservatives, but each time it came up smiling.

4.36am. After all the hype, Amber Rudd hangs on in Hastings & Rye.

4.23am. Plymouth, Sutton & Devonport now a declared Labour gain from the Conservatives, overturning a 1.1% margin.

4.20am. Alex Salmond loses his seat of Gordon to the Conservatives, in another blow to the SNP.

3.57am. Northern Ireland’s Labour-aligned party has now lost all of its three seats.

3.50am. Lineball result in Amber Rudd’s seat of Hastings leads to recount.

3.37am. Kingston on the fringe of London adds to scattered Liberal Democrats gains around the place from the Conservatives.

3.31am. Someone on BBC says projections point to 3% Conservative lead on the vote, suggesting Survation probably the best performing pollster.

3.29am. Eastbourne another Liberal Democrats gain from the Conservatives.

3.17am. BBC analyst says Labour boilover now expected in Kent seat of Canterbury, with a surge of young voters apparently set to overturn 18.3% Conservative margin. Labour has also gained the Midlands seat of Peterborough (4.1% margin) in a squeaker. In other close result news, the SNP have seen off the Conservatives by 21 votes in Perth & North Perthshire, against the prediction of the exit poll.

3.02am. Labour’s surprise win in the Suffolk seat of Ipswich, mooted earlier in the night, is now confirmed. But in Northern Ireland, the Labour-aligned Social Democratic and Labour Party has lost two of its three seats — one to Sinn Fein, one to the Unionists.

2.59am. Now eight confirmed losses for the SNP: four to the Conservatives, three to Labour, one to the Liberal Democrats. The BBC is projecting them to drop from 56 seats out of 59 to 32.

2.57am. Bristol North West a non-London Labour gain from the Conservatives.

2.54am. Knife-edge Conservative seat of Gower in Wales goes to Labour, not unpredictably. London seat of Twickenham goes from Conservative to the Liberal Democrats, presumably the beneficiary of heavy duty tactical voting.

2.46am. Labour gains Sheffield Hallam from former Liberal Democrats leader Nick Clegg, rated a 33% chance by the exit poll.

2.42am. SNP casualty list lengthens with Liberal Democrat gain of Dunbartonshire East, which was anticipated by the exit poll.

2.38am. Better news for the Conservatives from Southport in north-western England, which they have gained from the Libeal Democrats, which the exit poll rated only a 10% possibility.

2.27am. Midlothian now goes from SNP to Labour, against the prediction of the exit poll.

2.25am. Conservatives win Ochil & Perthshire South, of which exit poll said this: “the Conservatives have a 31% chance of victory, Labour has a 23% chance of victory, the SNP has a 46% chance of victory”. So SNP fairly consistently under-performing the exit poll.

2.19am. Conservatives gain Moray from SNP, as anticipated by exit poll.

2.16am. Conservative ministers confident no more of the exit poll being wrong.

2.11am. Another double-digit swing in London turns the marginal Labour seat of Ealing into a safe one.

2.06am. Stockton South, rated as lineball by the exit poll, goes to Labour.

2.02am. Labour win confirmed in Battersea with 10% swing.

1.58am. Conservatives gain Scottish seat of Angus from SNP — picked by exit poll, but talked up as a shock by the BBC presenter.

1.45am. Another double digit swing to Labour in London, this time in the Conservative seat of Putney. Keep in mind that swings are calculated differently in British parlance, such that a 10% swing overturns a 20% margin. So these results are consistent with Labour being competitive or better in Battersea (15.6%) or even Kensington (21.1%), both the subject of excited Labour chatter.

1.41am. Labour gains Welsh margin Vale of Clwyd with swing of 3.5%.

1.35am. Exit poll looking better now — talk even that Labour will outperform it.

1.30am. Young SNP firebrand Mhairi Black retains Paisley & Renfrewshire South.

1.25am. First result from London is Labour-held Tooting, where Labour gets a swing of 10.6%.

1.20am. The Rutherglen gain by Labour from the SNP was not predicted by the exit poll, which had Edinburgh North & Leith as their only gain in Scotland. BBC pundit says Labour expects to win Sheffield Hallam from former Liberal Democrats leader Nick Clegg — this was too close to call in the exit poll. Other two mooted Labour gains she mentions were anticipated by poll.

1.13am. 4.5% swing to Labour in their safe Welsh seat of Llanelli; Labour narrowly gains Rutherglen & Hamilton West from SNP, the first declared result to change hands.

1.11am. Labour now expecting to make gains in Wales, after disappointing Conservatives failure in Wrexham.

12.59am. I belatedly observe a 1.4% Conservative swing in the north-west England seat of Workington. Someone earlier said the picture got better for the Conservatives with every foot you travelled north.

12.53am. Status quo result in Labour-held north-eastern seat of Durham, where the Conservatives might have vaguely hoped they could still gain based on early results from the region, although 7.7% margin made it a big ask. Still, the sort of seat the Conservatives were expecting to win going into the election.

12.38am. 2.2% swing to Labour in Broxbourne and 0.2% swing in Nuneaton, two middle England seats. But mounting talk of a big result for Labour in London, including a win in Battersea, margin 15.6%.

12.32am. “Entirely possible we will still get an overall majority”, is the less-than-bullish assessment of Conservative heavyweight Liam Fox.

12.28am. 2.6% swing to Labour in Kettering, a Conservative seat in the Midlands.

12.25am. BBC pundit says Labour said to be confident of the Suffolk seat of Ipswich, margin of 7.7%, and four gains in Scotland.

12.21am. Newcastle North swings 0.5% to Labour, which is better than their regional form.

12.16am. Specifically, HuffPost UK politics editor Paul Waugh says Labour is expected to win Kensington, which the Conservatives won 52.2% to 31.1% in 2015.

12.08am. Washginton and Sunderland West swings 2.2% to Conservatives, in line with regional trend. However, there’s excited talk on Twitter about Labour’s prospects in blue-ribbon constituencies in London.

11.59pm. Bad result for Labour from Newcastle Central, good one from North Swindon. Long night ahead.

11.47pm. Third seat is Sunderland South: 2.2% swing to Conservatives. BBC analyst indicates Labour worried exit poll wrong because Conservatives outperforming it on postal votes.

11.33pm. BBC reporter says Labour remain excited about Hastings and Rye, held by Home Secretary Amber Rudd on a margin of 9.4%, which wasn’t picked as a Labour gain by the exit poll. It was a middlingly good seat for UKIP in 2015, and a bit above average for age.

11.23pm. Exit poll broken down by age: 63-27 to Labour among 18-34; 43-43 among 35-54; 59-23 to Conservative among 55+.

11.20pm. Conservative sources expressing confidence the exit poll is wrong. But as Antony Green points out, the picture in the two constituencies that are in is complicated by the steep decline there of UKIP.

11.08pm. A second pro-Brexit Labour-held constituency, Houghton and Sunderland South, has the Conservatives outperforming the exit poll, with a 2% swing in their favour.

11.03pm. First result, from Newcastle upon Tyne Central, records 2% swing to Labour, which is less than the exit poll anticipated.

10.21pm. Britain Elects on Twitter: “Amber Rudd in trouble in Hastings & Rye (2015 Con +9), so says the BBC.”

10.19pm. Markets respond.

10.11pm. Labour MP John McDonnell “sounds rather doubtful that the exit poll is right”, at least in the view of Lord Ashcroft.

10.08pm. Antony Green points out the feted exit poll from 215 in fact under-predicted the Conservatives by 15 seats.

10.04pm. Another British election, another stimulating exit poll result. Conservatives to lose majority with 314 seats (326 required for majority) to 266 for Labour, 34 for Scottish Nationalists and 14 for the Liberal Democrats.

9.56pm. The Sun’s political editor on Twitter: “Scotland now looking really good for Tories, I’m told 10-12 gains from the SNP possible”.

9.55pm GMT. The final reading of the BludgerTrack UK poll aggregate: Conservative 43.0, Labour 36.8, Liberal Democrats 7.6, UKIP 4.2. Coming soon: the moment of high drama that is the announcement of the exit poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

492 comments on “British election live”

Comments Page 3 of 10
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  1. Interesting comments on Nigel Marriotts blog. He still predicts good win to Tories. However it appears he is projecting results in the North across all the rest.

    Friday 00:18 – “Ok crunching first 6 seats, can make the following observations. My nURS model was more or less spot on in the North East with the exception of Newcastle East where turnout was much higher. My sense at the moment is that turnout will be 70% not 68% as I expected and the CON-LAB national lead will be 7.5% as the polls say rather than my 9.5%. BUT if I rerun my forecast with these adjustments my seat forecast is still around 370 for the Conservatives”.

  2. Jackaranda – But the funny thing is that YouGov totally punked it at the end and dashed into the middle of the herd and basically abandoned their model. What a joke! If they had some balls they would be total heros right now.

  3. From the last British thread:

    Millennial
    Thursday, June 8, 2017 at 7:56 pm

    For those who those who want to follow each individual UK constituency (or seats) when the polls close, I’ve picked out a list of 10 marginal Tory-Labor constituencies to keep a close eye on to get some idea of what’s going to happen in the election:
    BROXTOWE (East Midlands) – CON MARGIN: 8%
    BLACKPOOL NORTH & CLEVELEYS (North West) – CON MARGIN: 8.5%
    PUDSEY (Yorkshire and the Humber) – CON MARGIN: 8.8%
    CALDER VALLEY (Yorkshire and the Humber) – CON MARGIN: 8.3%
    BRISTOL NORTH WEST (South West) – CON MARGIN: 9.5%
    COLNE VALLEY (Yorkshire and the Humber) – CON MARGIN: 9.5%
    HASTINGS & RYE (South East) – CON MARGIN: 9.4%
    HIGH PEAK (East Midlands) – CON MARGIN: 9.6%
    STOCKTON SOUTH (North East) – CON MARGIN: 9.7%
    HARROW EAST (Greater London) – 9.7%
    Now, if my maths is correct, how the parties do in the these 10 seats would probably be indicative of how they are doing in the seat totals generally. Or to put it another way, here are some scenarios of what may go down:

    A: Labour is being Routed in all 10 seats

    In this case, the Conservative vote would be +7% above Labour nationally and they’ll be having a great night. May would have expanded her majority, and a Tory landslide would be on the cards.

    B: Labour has a presence but isn’t quite competitive in any seat

    In this case, the Conservative vote would be 4% to 6% above Labour nationally, which is where the poll average is more or less right now. Essentially, it would be a re-run of the 2015 General Election, with the Conservatives holding on to a small majority.

    C: Labour is quite competitive in some of the seats but isn’t looking likely
    to win any of them

    In this case, the Conservative vote would be 2% to 4% above Labour nationally. We’re entering hung Parliament territory (or close to it) and the Tory majority is under threat.
    However, the Conservatives will be by far the largest party, and it is likely that they will fall short of only a few seats of a majority and need to rely on 1 small party to continue governing. (Most likely the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) or the Liberal Democrats.)

    D: Labour is competitive in many of the seats and is winning a few of them

    In this case, the Conservative vote would be tied to 2% above Labour nationally, and things start to get weak and chaotic. The Conservatives have lost their majority, and are probably more than +15 seats away from it.
    They are still the largest party, but will probably have to work with a multitude of smaller parties that don’t trust each other, the SNP who certainly doesn’t trust the Tories, or call yet another snap election, ala UK 1974.

    E: Labour is winning most all of them and the rest are hanging on by a thread

    In this case, the Labour vote would be tied to 2% above the Conservatives nationally, and this is great news of them and absolutely terrible for the Conservatives. It would mean that the polls have drastically underestimated Labour and or/overestimated the Conservatives, and although the Tories are still the largest party, Labour might (and that’s a BIG might) have won enough seats (around 270) to form a coalition with the SNP (assuming the SNP has hold onto their seats and is up for it).
    However, as crazy the idea of Corbyn becoming PM might’ve been 2 weeks ago; in this scenario, his Government would be very fragile – he would have won just enough seats to do so, which means any rebellion from his party or the SNP may stifle his agenda. (This principle also applies to the above scenarios where May returns with a smaller majority or a minority government.)

    F: Labour is winning all of these seats by a small but conformable margin.

    Let’s not beat around the bush here: in this case, Labour would be 2% to 4% above the Conservatives nationally at would a fantastic night for Corbyn and a disastrous one for May.
    Not only would Labour be the largest party, but the polls would have to be way, way off course and would signal the end for many of the polling companies, especially the ones who’d given the Tories double digit leads.

    If it’s true that Hastings and Rye has fallen to Labour (Amber Rudd’s seat) then we’re at Scenario D right now.

  4. Ray – if Labour puts 6 Scottish seats in their kitbag they will be over the moon. What a blow to Theresa.

  5. 0.2% swing to Labour in bellweather Nuneaton seat – this was in exit poll as Con hold
    2+% swing to Labour in Broxbourne in the wealthy south

    Labour briefing they will win Battersea, Thurrock and Northampton North – the Northampton one is extra to the exit poll, the others were in as 60% chances

  7. Ausdavo

    BUT if I rerun my forecast with these adjustments my seat forecast is still around 370 for the Conservatives”.

    LoL – his assumptions need some adjustments.

  8. Ray I lived at Mancetter which is in the next seat to Nuneaton. We regularly went to Nuneaton for larger shopping items. Sadly it’s remaining in the Conservative ranks.

  9. Interesting this tweat:
    “Two very good sources told me May **really** didn’t want early election but was talked into it by aides. Though CCHQ strongly denied it.”

    Sounds like May is already worried about losing her job.

  11. Labour hold Darlington in north east with zero swing

    Labour briefing they will win Aberconwy and Gower, both in Wales – these are also extras not in the exit poll numbers

  12. Unless things turn pretty substantially for the Cons the Maybot is going to be decommissioned and send for scrapping.

  14. This is possibly the most interesting presentation of the results – with seats grouped by party and by vulnerable/safer/safest. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2017/jun/08/live-uk-election-results-in-full-2017 So far the results are all from the safer and safest zones and there are red dots in the Labour column and blue ones in the Conartists column. So far so boring. The interesting time will be when they start declaring some of the vulnerables, especially the Conartists’ vulnerables.

  15. Ausdavo
    I think May will soon be “Former PM May”. The Cons have lost seats and at least one minister, and Labor are gaining. Even if the Cons hold on, May will not survive as their leader. PM Boris or PM Jeremy?

  16. I can’t keep track but Labour seem to have briefed at least 8 or so ‘not-in-the-exit poll’ gains in various areas, some insurance for any extra Tory pickups in the North

  18. From the Guardian blog

    These are from ITV’s political editor Robert Peston. It’s a very sound overview of what it could all mean.

    Robert Peston @Peston
    What we know so far: 1) the left’s grip on Labour now unshakeable, and Blairism totally dead (as I mentioned on Wednesday)
    6:46 AM – 9 Jun 2017

    2) we are witnessing the starkest generational split at ballot box for years, with young backing Labour and old the Tories
    6:47 AM – 9 Jun 2017

    Robert Peston @Peston
    3) @theresa_may very seriously wounded – and her rivals, such as @BorisJohnson, will be weeping crocodile tears
    6:48 AM – 9 Jun 2017

    Robert Peston @Peston
    4) we are back to traditional right-versus-politics of a sort we haven’t seen for more than 25 years
    6:50 AM – 9 Jun 2017

    Robert Peston @Peston
    5) we are entering a period of chronic political instability, and another general election in the autumn looks almost inevitable
    6:51 AM – 9 Jun 2017

    Robert Peston @Peston
    6) sterling and stock market will be under serious downward pressure in the morning
    6:52 AM – 9 Jun 2017

    Robert Peston @Peston
    7) goodness only knows what this means either for the timetable for Brexit or the nature of Brexit
    6:53 AM – 9 Jun 2017

    Robert Peston @Peston
    8) what I worry about, more than anything else, is that our nation will be revealed as more divided that at any time since the 1980s
    6:53 AM – 9 Jun 2017

    So another election maybe?
    I think Labour would love that.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/jun/08/general-election-results-2017-uk-live-labour-tories-corbyn-may-election-results-live-news-line

  19. Nigel Marriott…
    Friday 00:48 – “First prediction error with Labour holding Workington instead of it being a CON Gain”.
    His model may be worrying him but early days …

  20. Ladbrokes now have PM 1 July May 4/5 Corbin 5/4, Boris 7/1 etc. Tory majority 5/2, no one majority 1/3, Labour majority 10/1. That is a very wriggly worm.

  21. Boris Johnson is “already on manoeuvres” claims Tory MP, who says the foreign secretary is “sounding out” a few colleagues about leadership.

    I put some timeframes up for how long May would last dependant on the result.
    It looks like I overstated how long she had

  27. Betfair inplay market moving about a bit. Corbyn got into $2.40 back out to $2.80. May $2.10
    SNP seats going conservative a worry

  29. And that controversial Qriously poll is starting to look a fair bit more accurate than the herded mainstream polls.

  31. The first CON minister falls in Battersea. CON majority unlikely. YouGov poll looks “spot on” to BBC analyst.

    All hail Boris Johnson, new Leader of the Opposition! I’m sure Turnbull and Abbott (whichever is in charge) will be the first to congratlate him.

  32. I bet Yougov feel ridiculous for changing their methodology for the final poll to herd it up to 7% margin. They were saying 4% so consistently, when no-one else was. If they had stuck at that, they would have been very close to the final result.

  33. Dimbleby says BBC about to up Con seat forecast, pundit/analyst says Con central office accept the Cons will not outperform the exit poll

  36. “Tories not expecting overall majority
    BBC political editor tweets…”

    Theresa May hopeful of a job as Rupert Murdoch’s maid after Monday?

  38. And that controversial Qriously poll is starting to look a fair bit more accurate than the herded mainstream polls.

    Antony Green projects vote shares of 45.9% Conseravtive and 37.3% Labour, so I don’t think so.

  40. Dun Garbhan‏ @Dungarbhan 4 minutes ago

    Thank you God. We’ve held the Western Isles. @AngusMacNeilSNP
    SNP saying they’ve held Glasgow East and Glasgow Central. @itvnews
    East Kilbride SNP HOLD
    Paisley & Renfrewshire North SNP HOLD

  42. This is nice:

    FrankThomas‏ @FrankThomas27 52m

    Tory insiders now saying that they’ve lost every marginal constituency that Theresa May has visited
    #BBCelection

  43. William – Not sure that Anthony’s projections mean much until we really get to London. That is looking terrible for the Tories.

  44. Just putting it out there…
    Ratsak
    Thursday, April 27, 2017, at 11:26 am
    I think people writing off Corbyn are getting a bit ahead of themselves.
    No of course I don’t think Labour can win in terms of getting a majority. The SNP own Scotland so a Labour majority in the Commons is pretty much impossible.

    But with the start of some strategic thinking from the Greens and hopefully followed by LibDems and Labour I wouldn’t discount the Tories losing their majority.

    That would be the end of May and who knows where that could lead. Certainly Corbyn would be greatly enhanced by such a result.

    As hopeless as Corbyn seems in the House he has proven to be an excellent campaigner on the hustings. A few more polls showing Labor picking up votes and images of lines of people trying to get into Corbyn speeches on the news could quite quickly turn the conversation to how he has the ‘momentum’. He won’t get a break from the media obviously, but if enough Bregretters decide a Labor, Lib Dem, SNP majority offers the best chance of reducing the pain if not stop Brexit then the Cons will struggle.

    If Corbyn doesn’t perform as he did in the leadership votes, and/or the LibDems and Labor split the anti Tory vote in seats which one of them would have a chance without the other then May will romp it in. But neither of those are a given for mine.

  47. I think it’s safe to say the SNP are not exactly have a great night.

    Yep, like the LibDems with Brexit they seem to have underestimated how many independence voters are happy to just accept the result and get on with it rather than push for a redo.

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