Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A slight shift in the weekly Essential Research result gives the Coalition its best set of voting intention numbers in some time.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average records a one-point shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, which reflects an unusually strong result for them in last week’s sample. Labor’s lead is now at 52-48, with both parties up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%, the Greens down one to 10%, and One Nation up one to 6%.

Presumably in response to the Margaret Court episode, there are a number of questions on same-sex marriage, which records 60% support and 26% opposition compared with a 62-27 split in August last year. Sixty-one per cent support of the matter being determined by a plebiscite, with 27% favouring a vote by parliament. This compares with 59-25 in August, although Kevin Bonham notes Newspoll had it at 48-39 for a vote in parliament last September. Thirty-four per cent say they would be more likely to vote for a party or candidate who supported same-sex marriage, compared with 19% for less likely.

The poll finds 41% saying jobs on the Great Barrier Reef should be prioritised in a trade-off with jobs in the coal industry, compared with 12% for vice-versa and 21% denying such a trade-off was real. Apropos the Uluru statement, the poll records solid pluralities in favour even of of the more radical of its proposals. The poll also records 41% saying too much is spent on foreign aid compared with 16% for too little, although it also found the median respondent believed foreign aid accounted for around 2% of the budget, compared with a true figure of less than 1%.

We’re also now getting weekly attitudinal polling from YouGov for Fifty Acres, which will in due course expand to voting intention results. Its findings published on Friday recorded 45% support for a new verse for the national anthem recognising the indigenous as the first peoples, with 30% opposed; 53% opposed to a proposed increase in the refugee settlement program to 10,000 a year (no result for in favour was provided); and 52% support for same-sex marriage (no result for opposed was provided).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,172 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Trump is showing every day in every way that he is a tool of Putin.
    The prevailing message is that Putin must have some serious kompromat on Trump.
    And knowing Trump has no shame at all, what could it possibly be that has Trump doing the bidding of Putin.
    Many of the usual theories abound. For eg. money laundering etc. But there are also some sinister ones floating around, and no, not the pee pee tapes.

  2. Trump’s Russia Cover-Up Is Collapsing As Jeff Sessions Suggested He Could Resign

    Just hours after White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer refused to say if Trump has confidence in his Attorney General Jeff Sessions, a new report was dropped that indicates Sessions suggested he could resign.

    The New York Times reported Monday, “Mr. Trump has grown sour on Mr. Sessions, now his attorney general, blaming him for various troubles that have plagued the White House…. In Mr. Trump’s view, they said, it was that recusal that eventually led to the appointment of a special counsel who took over the investigation.”

    Trump is blaming Sessions for the special counsel, but he should be blaming himself. We haven’t heard Donald Trump take responsibility for anything yet, and it probably won’t happen anytime soon.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/06/06/jeff-sessions-suggested-resign-response-trumps-anger-special-counsel.html

  3. Peter_Fitz: Meanwhile, Alan Jones says on radio “we may need to dispense with the presumption of innnocence . . .” twitter.com/ItsBouquet/sta…

  6. Alan Moir
    @moir_alan
    “Lke mny othrs I have been hit by Fairfax budget cuts.I’ve been cut from
    SMH mon to fri, but will still appear sats. Daily tweets will cont”

  8. I can’t wait for this house of cards to collapse in a pile of steaming shit!
    Amy Siskind @Amy_Siskind

    More coming out on Trump and obstruction of justice. This week feels like mayhem!
    Top intelligence official told associates Trump asked him if he could intervene with Comey on FBI…
    washingtonpost.com

  10. victoria Wednesday, June 7, 2017 at 10:50 am
    I can’t wait for this house of cards to collapse in a pile of steaming shit!
    Amy Siskind @Amy_Siskind
    More coming out on Trump and obstruction of justice. This week feels like mayhem!
    Top intelligence official told associates Trump asked him if he could intervene with Comey on FBI…

    **************************************************

    Trump asked National Intelligence head Coats to intervene in Comey’s Russia probe: report

    A new Washington Post report reveals that President Donald Trump asked the newly-confirmed Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats to intervene to “curtail” the FBI’s Russia probe during a March meeting in the Oval Office.

    After a White House briefing, the Post reported, Trump cleared the room of everyone except Dir. Coats and CIA Director Mike Pompeo and then “started complaining about the FBI investigation and Comey’s handling of it,” according to sources who spoke to the Post.

    Coats is expected to testify tomorrow before the Senate Intelligence Committee about his meeting with Trump.

    Earlier on Tuesday, CNN reported that Coats, who was formerly an Indiana senator, is under pressure to reveal the interactions he had with the president as accusations mount about Trump colluding with Russia.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/trump-asked-national-intelligence-head-coats-to-intervene-in-comeys-russia-probe-report/

  11. ctar1 @ #49 Wednesday, June 7, 2017 at 8:25 am

    BK

    iOS 11 will render older iPhones, iPads and apps obsolete

    Predictable … Iphones sales are stalled or falling.
    But they have a new cylindrical device covered in grey upholstery. They say you can talk to it and it talks back or plays music. No one is allowed to talk to it at the moment and sound has not been demonstrated.
    Cheap at $370. Coming to a store near you sometime soon.

    I have a venerable iPhone 3GS. Long since incapable of running new versions of iOS and the latest versions of some apps. So what?
    Best phone I have ever owned by a long shot. Still has original battery, never spent a cent on it other than a new cable. Does all I want. I have never kept and used a phone so long before. The TCO has got to be the lowest of all my phones.
    Yes, I will probably update one day – to a new iPhone which will hopefully give me the same outstanding service.

  12. Comey told Sessions not to leave him alone with Trump after request to drop Flynn investigation: report

    After Donald Trump asked James Comey to end a federal investigation into former National Security Adviser Mike Flynn, then-FBI Directory Comey told Attorney General Jeff Sessions he did not want to be left alone with the president, the New York Times reports.

    Current and former law enforcement officials told the Times, Comey spoke directly with Sessions about the inappropriate nature of his conversation with Trump, but did not go into specifics about Trump’s request. According to officials, Comey was worried Trump would try to undermine the FBI’s investigation into possible collusion between the president’s 2016 campaign and Russian operatives trying to influence the U.S. election.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/comey-told-sessions-not-to-leave-him-alone-with-trump-after-request-to-drop-flynn-investigation-report/

  13. zoomster @ #48 Wednesday, June 7th, 2017 – 8:25 am

    1. Sam Dastyari made a number (I’ve heard two and four) approaches to the Department of Immigration on behalf of the donor.

    Sorry, can’t see anything wrong with this. Even if Dastyari knew he was a donor.

    I can. A politician (who doesn’t want to create the appearance of influence-peddling) basically only has two options:

    1. Advocate on behalf of a constituent (whether that constituent is savory or not); or
    2. Accept a large donation from a constituent.

    Trying to do both does not create a very good look, even if it’s not criminal and even if there’s not actually any influence-peddling going on. Appearances count for quite a bit in politics, and Dastyari has been quite careless in not taking that into proper account.

  15. Trump told GOP they could float putting solar panels on the border wall as long as they say it was his idea

    In a meeting with Republican leaders, Donald Trump suggested building a border will with Mexico affixed with solar panels, telling lawmakers they can discuss the vision as long as they give him credit for the idea.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/trump-told-gop-they-could-float-putting-solar-panels-on-the-border-wall-as-long-as-they-say-it-was-his-idea/

  19. A R

    As a candidate, I don’t know who is donating what to the Labor party, unless they tell me.

    So it’s at least possible that Dastyari didn’t know the person had made a donation.

    Secondly, making a donation to the Labor party shouldn’t bar you from having Labor party MPs advocate on your behalf. It depends on the nature of their advocacy – if it was something they would do for anybody else in your circumstances, regardless of whether they’d made a donation or not, then that’s fine.

    Dastyari’s actions do seem to fall into this camp.

    What you’re arguing is that any individual who makes a large donation to the Labor party immediately loses the right to have any Labor party MP advocate for them on anything, which seems to be a bit over the top.

  20. 36 hours and counting on CNN’s clock until Comey testifies. This will go down in the history books as perhaps the most consequential moment in American politics.
    Friends in Washington tell me that Comey will make new revelations that go to the heart of Trumps attempts to stop the Mueller investigation.

  21. zoomster @ #119 Wednesday, June 7th, 2017 – 11:12 am

    What you’re arguing is that any individual who makes a large donation to the Labor party immediately loses the right to have any Labor party MP advocate for them on anything, which seems to be a bit over the top.

    Perhaps I’ve misconstrued the nature of the donation. My impression was that it was made to (or at least directly organized by) Dastyari. Though maybe that’s just hostile media spin?

    I agree that if the donation was to the party and Sam had no knowledge of it/no hand in arranging it, it’s a completely different ballgame.

  22. Zoomster – if a politician does something on behalf of a large donor he has absolutely no right to complain if that is misconstrued. That’s, of course, why the donation laws have to be reformed so politicians are not put in that position.

  24. ‘That’s, of course, why the donation laws have to be reformed so politicians are not put in that position.’

    Except you can’t do this in a way that avoids the problem (unless you only see it as a problem with foreign donors, not donors in general).

    Firstly, as I’ve already stated, making a large donation to the party and an individual politician knowing you’ve made that large donation are two different things. It becomes very unwieldy if, every time someone rings up your office and requests assistance, you have to check just in case they’re someone who has also made a large donation.

    I agree that if the request is along the lines of “I’ve got a contract before the government, can you ring up and see how it’s going?” common sense says check. If it’s “I’ve got a request in for resident status, do you mind ringing up and seeing how it’s going?” , not necessarily.

    Secondly, large donations won’t be prohibited (and if they are, large donors have ways of getting around such prohibitions…). The Labor party already declares donations which are lower than the legal threshold for declaration, so any changes are unlikely to affect their operations anyway.

    This seems to me to be largely a case of false equivalence. Andrew Robb’s $880,000 payday should be the story, not SD making a couple of (as far as we know, perfectly routine) calls to a government department on behalf of a constituent, which is something every politician’s office in the country does on an hourly basis.

  25. Zoomster

    To avoid problems. Public funding and a Federal ICAC are the solution.

    The only problem you are left is making sure new aspirants get a fair go at some funding.

  26. guytaur @ #79 Wednesday, June 7, 2017 at 9:20 am

    Cat
    Yes. I hope all non LNP pollies jump on the bandwagon. Liarjholm should be first off the block. I won’t hold my breathe though.
    While on the subject I liked Derryn Hinch standing up for the hostage victim in the Melbourne siege yesterday. There are times when he does make real sense

    My sympathies are very much with that hostage and the man who was shot and his family.
    The tabloid sniggering about the woman is pathetic.
    John Silvester is right (again), the perpetrator was no terrorist, he is just a dead crook whose name should never be mentioned, nor his image displayed.

  31. GDP figure 0.3%, annual figure 1.7%. So no recession yet, Australia now holds record for longest recession-free run – more thanks to Hawke & Keating than Abbott, Hockey, Turnbull and Morrison.

    But it’s a pyhhric ‘victory’, meaning nothing. We need to grow at 3% to keep unemployment from going up*. In fact 1.7% barely keeps pace with Australia’s population.

    * that’s another problem – exponential is ultimately unsustainable

  32. Anton

    And how do you deal with donations in kind? I know ALP members who have spent thousands of dollars of their own money, poured hours and resources into party…at what point do they lose the right to have Labor MPs make enquiries on their behalf?

  34. There should be no ‘of ‘ in front of the list of qualities. I think this originated (in print) with real estate adverts: ‘The house comprises of’ should read ‘the house is comprised of’.

    These comprise of extroversion, openness, conscientiousness, agreeableness, neuroticism and conscientiousness.

    So I’m an introvert? Big deal!

  35. But it’s a pyhhric ‘victory’, meaning nothing. We need to grow at 3% to keep unemployment from going up*. In fact 1.7% barely keeps pace with Australia’s population.

    * that’s another problem – exponential is ultimately unsustainable

    Kenneth Boulding – “Anyone who believes in continuous growth in a finite world is either a fool or an economist”
    Giogios Kallis on “degrowth”
    https://newint.org/features/web-exclusive/2015/11/05/left-degrowth/

  36. Lizzie – also “conscientiousness” is duplicated.
    I object to the “Big Five” or “OCEAN” scale because of its omissions – particularly any measure of ethical values.

  37. ..and how do you deal with the situation where you do such a good job of advocacy for the person that, out of gratitude, they make a large donation to the party?

    That also can be misconstrued.

    Basically, the argument seems to be that if you have large amounts of money, you have no right to political representation of any kind.

  38. Phylactella

    I should think that scientists depend on accuracy and need to be pedantic. Some big mistakes can be made though inattention to detail.

  40. Trump was right on one thing – these ‘terrorists’ losers.

    Does calling them ‘terrorists’ just encourage them? Make them feel important? Encourage recruitment? They are just pathetic losers who committed heinous crimes. They are muderers, like Martin Bryant and Julian Knight. They can’t make it in life so they leave it in a blaze of ignominy, taking far better people with them. Maybe they’re hoping to meet some virgins, but the Islamic Hell is just as unpleasant as the Christian one.

    If IS had been around 20 years ago, Martin Bryant would probably declared allegiance to it.

  41. But how can the perception be avoided that a political donation followed by a favourable action by the representative are connected? Isn’t it important to avoid the perception of conflict of interest as much as the conflict itself?

  42. Davidwh @ #118 Wednesday, June 7, 2017 at 11:12 am

    Trump’s Great Wall of Solar. Has a nice ring to it.

    Some Republican will suggest they use the generated power to ‘fry’ anything that approaches the southern side of the wall.

  44. Shift

    Yes. Thats why I think public funding and a Federal ICAC are the go.

    Leave no doubt politician influenced by good evidence based argument. Not any other incentives

  46. Bemused on IPhone 3

    Cannot agree with you more. My iPhone 3 (a hand me down years ago from my son) with its original battery has a better battery life than my wife’s iPhone 6

  47. Good afternoon all,

    By all means debate on the rights and wrongs of private donations to political parties whether the donations originate overseas or domestically. What is blindingly obvious to me is the hypocracy of the MSM response to the 4 Corners programme.

    It is as if labor has been the sole beneficiary of Chinese donations over the years and any contributions to the liberal party never happened and in fact have been airbrushed aside.

    This whole story is a concerted attempt to tarnish the labor party. By all means put labor under scrutiny but so should the liberals. They are not.

    The ABC and Fairfax have made a deliberate decision to focus on the labor party in the days following the 4 Corners report.

    That is what makes me angry.

    Cheers

  48. Zoomster

    Basically, the argument seems to be that if you have large amounts of money, you have no right to political representation of any kind.

    They have as much right to representation as all other citizens. It is buying greater political representation than other citizens that is the problem

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