Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 54-46, the only change on the primary vote being a one point drop for Labor to 37%, with the Coalition on 37%, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 6%. An occasional question on the attributes of the parties yields little change since it was last asked in May, the biggest movers being “have good policies”, “clear about what they stand for” and “too close to big corporate and financial interests” for Labor, all of which are down five points. Another question finds Labor more trusted to find Medicare, the NDIS, universities, the age pension and public schools, but the Coalition more trusted to fund independent and private schools (keeping in mind that not everyone would feel these things should be funded). Labor’s specific budget response proposals all get highly positive responses; more respondents oppose (39%) than favour (24%) removing the deficit levy on the top income tax rate; and an overwhelming majority (78% to 7%) expect the bank levy will be passed on to customers.
poroti @ #1685 Sunday, May 28th, 2017 – 6:30 pm
China could do that too. And perhaps Pakistan, if they applied themselves (and they have reason to, what with the clandestine border incursions, drone strikes, and whatnot).
Though are you saying Kushner has advanced that argument, or are you just randomly hypothesizing on his behalf?
And why on Earth would that kind of question need to be kept hidden from domestic intelligence agencies anyways? They probably were the first to know what the real red lines are and would be happy to pass that info on to the President. Or would be, if assured that he wouldn’t blurt the info out to the first Russian he bumps into.
poroti @ #1586 Sunday, May 28, 2017 at 2:07 pm
Lizzie
Good Night (now we can start commenting about your posts).
Briefly:
While you’re here, I have to say I’ve been impressed with what I’ve seen from Anne Aly since she was elected. I’m hoping she is promoted to the front bench when Labor wins the next election.
C@tmomma,
If you’re still here,i.e., doing a pegasus, yep, cut to the quick, devastated, utterly astonished that no-one, nobody said anything to me about my post.
As though that’s never happened before on the umpteen years I’ve been visiting the bludger lounge.
Anyway, enjoy masterchef. I’m going to grit my teeth and hope Dr Who is less silly that recent episodes, then get into more Black Widows on SBS.
Monica Lynagh,
‘Tis true that Dr Who has become a tad shallow and predictable this year. I do watch it in the long ad breaks that appear too regularly on Channel 10 though. Enjoy!
‘fess
One last comment from me before exiting/clocking off. I was also impressed with Tony Burke and Labor getting Linda Burney to grant leave to the PM, as well as herself. Usually it would be Tony Burke who would grant leave. Dunno who orchestrated that, but it was well done.
If anything it must have made Dutton and the rest of the hard right rigid with rage.
Confessions
Sunday, May 28, 2017 at 7:02 pm
She’s already campaigning for the next election. I hope to see her next week. Interestingly, her previous opponent, Luke Simpkins, has resigned from the Liberals and joined Bernardi.
So you propose that Australia abandon the various Afghani peoples and leave them to the mercy of potentially another Taliban uprising.
Good to know.
Had it occurred to you that Labor’s position is that because we started this mess and that since the Afghan Government is in no state to take over, it’s our responsibility to help clean it up?
Monica L:
I missed that, but anything that gets up Dutton’s nose gets a win-win from me 😀
poroti @ #1586 Sunday, May 28, 2017 at 2:07 pm
He’s been attracting yooge crowds everywhere he goes. Mainly oop North though. Whereas May has been holding carefully stage managed events with attendance by invitation only.
Corbyn has run an almost flawless campaign with huge crowds at rallies, strong and popular policies, and has easily batted away all criticism and attacks. May’s campaign on the other hand has been a complete omnishambles, and that’s shining the best possible light on it.
It remains to be seen what that translates to on election day. I think it all depends on how many 18-30 year olds can be bothered turning out to vote.
Really? That is interesting. How does he figure he’s going to be re-elected hooking his star to that lot?
Well that lot all genuinely seem to believe that there’s a vast “Moral Majority” out there that have been bullied into supporting moderate lefty commie SJW politics and all they need is a shining beacon of conservative nuttery to just rake in the votes.
Dan,
I’m hoping Trump and Brexit help turn out the youth vote.
A Corbyn win would be great. IMO he has the right approach to combat popular nationalism.
I notice even Hatcher thinks popular nationalism is on the wane, and he is usually a bit slow.
Do we have a Newspoll tonight?
Watched that Corbyn rally Poroti recently linked. I haven’t seen much of him speak. The talking points, particularly on health and education, reminded me of Shorten.
JimmyDoyle –
The problem is that all the time that the West is sticking its mitts into the Middle East things just get worse and worse and worse. The only way there will be any future of stability and peace is when the West gets the hell out of there and some sort of balance of power is thrashed out there.
The Taliban are already seen as part of the political fabric of any future for Afghanistan … I despise everything they seem to stand for, and I loathe the whole tribal warlord thing, but just painting the various groups of people as ‘bad guys’ is not going to lead to anything that has a future. If we’ve learnt anything from the disaster of the last couple of decades it is surely that the West simply doesn’t get to decide who has power in the Middle East.
I don’t pretend to know what will get us to a not-horrifying Middle East future, but I’m pretty confident that having our troops running around on the ground cannot help.
Briefly
Simpkins … LOL.
Dean Smith next?
briefly @ #1700 Sunday, May 28, 2017 at 6:56 pm
Utter rubbish. He epitomises the worst elements of Blairite Labour. It would be good to be rid of him.
jimmydoyle @ #1709 Sunday, May 28, 2017 at 7:22 pm
The problem is Jimmy, that the war in Afghanistan will last as long as Pakistan wants it to. And all the while the US, Australia and others pretend it isn’t so.
DAN – One hope I cling to in the UK election is that younger voters, having just pissed away their futures by not voting in the Brexit referendum, will take this poll a lot more seriously. If so, some of the polls might be underweighing Labor. I can also see Corbyn exciting the young to vote a lot more than someone like Miliband. And maybe some older Tory voters might think about voting for Theresa and decide to go back to bed.
Who knows!
“Utter rubbish. He epitomises the worst elements of Blairite Labour. It would be good to be rid of him.”
Agreed. The man is a total fraud.
Mike Carlton on Twitter:
‘Journalists agonise about their collapsing credibility. Then they cover Schapelle Corby like the Second Coming of Christ. Hopeless.’
adrian @ #1722 Sunday, May 28, 2017 at 8:07 pm
Good to see we have found another point of agreement.
“Journalists agonise about their collapsing credibility. ”
Some might, but their employers don’t. Clicks beat credibility any day.
@JimmyDoyle:
You don’t need a excuse to join a war, that is a pathetic one at best.
It would cost a lot less in terms of all things if just supports non military’s effort in those wars that USA always ask for our help for.
The USA should also pay us money in terms of compensation for their arrogance for endless wars while their own country suffers.
Trump is demanding NATO allies to pay up. So why should we support their arrogance!
We have now two wars, first is the real life one, where real lives are lost, then we have Digital Wars, with Massive attacks, Malware, companies hacked left, right and centre.
And you want to continue to support a hopeless policy that will never be stopped!
On left wing US conspiracy theory:
https://redux.slate.com/cover-stories/2017/05/louise-mensch-and-the-rise-of-the-liberal-conspiracy-theorist.html
Hmmm… some things I didn’t know here.
So yet again, trains being built for us overseas.
Mcternan is certainly an appalling man but amusingly he is famous for never getting an electoral prediction correct
antonbruckner11 Sunday, May 28, 2017 at 3:53 pm
The one advantage of selling lots of weapons to Saudi Arabia is that they might not have enough left to maintain their Wahhabi exports.
yabba88 @ #1349 Saturday, May 27, 2017 at 9:12 pm
Thanks, Yabba88, its all good except for the living in NSW part. I’ve been to Newcastle once for a job interview (for a job in country Victoria) and didn’t like Sydney when I lived there for work. It looks like a brilliant and interesting opportunity for someone. I just wish I was qualified and experienced enough to make a final 100 shortlist.
McTernan, Labour pundit of the year… hehehe
https://wingsoverscotland.com/new-labour-pundit-of-the-year/
On left wing US conspiracy theory:
https://redux.slate.com/cover-stories/2017/05/louise-mensch-and-the-rise-of-the-liberal-conspiracy-theorist.html
I read that piece the other day and it made me want to be more cautious about things, especially considering two things about Louise Mensch:
1. She is married to the manager of the band Metallica. They are very Conservative in their politics.
2. Milo Yiannopoulos posted on facebook that Louise Mensch made a pact with him after the election of Donald Trump to troll the Left like they have never been trolled before.
So I therefore have put all that she is writing about on a Watching Brief. I’ll be convinced when it amounts to something concrete.
Newspoll 53-47 to Labor. No change (including on primaries).
c@tmomma @ #1733 Sunday, May 28, 2017 at 9:35 pm
She’s also a former Tory MP and helped to set up the website Heat Street; a Breitbart clone.
Avoid her and her theories like the Plague. They are almost certainly bunkum.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/27/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-labour-narrows-gap-six-points-women/
Jeremy Corbyn is closer to winning the election than at any time during the campaign thanks to a surge in support from women, a poll for the Sunday Telegraph indicates.
Labour is now just 6 points behind the Tories with less than a fortnight to go – the smallest gap recorded by pollsters ORB International since the vote was called.
The Tories are on 44 per cent of the vote with Labour on 38. The Liberal Democrats are on 7 while Ukip has collapsed to just 4.
LibDem support is leaking away to Labour; Ukip to the Tories. The Brexit vote is driving a Tory victory.
antonbruckner11 @ #1721 Sunday, May 28, 2017 at 8:03 pm
453,000 18-34 year olds registered to vote in the last few days before the cut off of May 22.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-2017-young-people-sign-up-vote-final-registration-day-register-labour-conservative-tuition-a7756591.html
Who knows what their voting intention is, or even if they’re going to vote, but at least registering signifies some willingness to get off their arses and get to a polling station on election day.
I strongly believe that all the posters on here who said Corbyn was going to get massacred (and yes, I have been keeping the names of all of them) are going to have a lot of egg on their faces come June 9 (our time).
But, as you say, who knows.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-postbudget-bounce-still-eludes-turnbull/news-story/d13906248dfe5a26d0d849e22cea5843
Newspoll: Post-budget bounce still eludes Turnbull
The Australian 9:30PM May 28, 2017
David Crowe Political correspondent Canberra
Labor has held onto its gains in voter support after weeks of fighting over the fairness of the federal budget, with the government trailing Labor by 47 to 53 per cent in two-party terms.
The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor has kept its lead since the previous survey two weeks ago despite a government campaign to “reset the budget” and regain lost ground with voters.
Mr Turnbull retains his lead over Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister, leading by 45 to 33 per cent, and has continued to improve his personal standing with voters.
Bill Shorten has also gained ground on key measures of voter satisfaction despite the clear signs of division in Labor ranks over the past fortnight, including a shadow cabinet disagreement over Mr Shorten’s budget strategy and speculation about the ambitions of his former leadership rival, Anthony Albanese.
Voter support for the government is unchanged since the Newspoll two weeks ago, with the Coalition’s primary vote steady at 36 per cent — the same result in four consecutive surveys.
Labor’s support has also held steady at 36 per cent while the Greens were unchanged on 10 per cent, producing the same two-party result as the Newspoll published on May 15.
In a sign of continued disenchantment with both major parties, 28 per cent of voters continue to prefer minor parties with 10 per cent primary vote support for the Greens, 9 per cent for One Nation and 9 per cent for others including the Nick Xenophon Team.
confessions @ #1739 Sunday, May 28, 2017 at 10:01 pm
What a game changer the budget was!
Why is Jeremy Corby coming to the Gold Coast?
Post-budget bounce still eludes Turnbull
9:30PM May 28, 2017
Labor has held onto its gains in voter support after weeks of fighting over the fairness of the federal budget, with the government trailing Labor by 47 to 43 per cent in two-party terms.
The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor has kept its lead since the previous survey two weeks ago despite a government campaign to “reset the budget” and regain lost ground with voters.
Mr Turnbull retains his lead over Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister, leading by 45 to 33 per cent, and has continued to improve his personal standing with voters.
Bill Shorten has also gained ground on key measures of voter satisfaction despite the clear signs of division in Labor ranks over the past fortnight, including a shadow cabinet disagreement over Mr Shorten’s budget strategy and speculation about the ambitions of his former leadership rival, Anthony Albanese.
Voter support for the government is unchanged since the Newspoll two weeks ago, with the Coalition’s primary vote steady at 36 per cent — the same result in four consecutive surveys.
Labor’s support has also held steady at 36 per cent while the Greens were unchanged on 10 per cent, producing the same two-party result as the Newspoll published on May 15.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-postbudget-bounce-still-eludes-turnbull/news-story/d13906248dfe5a26d0d849e22cea5843
millennial @ #1735 Sunday, May 28, 2017 at 9:50 pm
She’s also peddling the rumour that the organisers of #TheResistance March For Truth on June 3 are Russian agents.
Sorry for the double Leroy, but fortunately numbers like that bear repeating.
Hello Toby! Have you seen Jim Prideaux lately?
Is that what you call a strangulated cat bounce for Turnbull? 😉
‘Labor has held onto its gains in voter support after weeks of fighting over the fairness of the federal budget,’
I think I can see the answer right there… if the argument is in fairness Labor wins.
I had been going to post my prediction: no change, too late now.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/28/labour-must-fill-pro-eu-chasm-says-blairs-former-chief-of-staff
Also, ‘speculation about the ambitions of his former leadership rival, Anthony Albanese.’, why doesn’t Crowe just name him – James, I talking to you ( in a De Niro accent).