Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Another quiet week on voting intention from Essential Research, which also records a better reception for Labor’s budget proposals than the Coalition’s.

Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 54-46, the only change on the primary vote being a one point drop for Labor to 37%, with the Coalition on 37%, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 6%. An occasional question on the attributes of the parties yields little change since it was last asked in May, the biggest movers being “have good policies”, “clear about what they stand for” and “too close to big corporate and financial interests” for Labor, all of which are down five points. Another question finds Labor more trusted to find Medicare, the NDIS, universities, the age pension and public schools, but the Coalition more trusted to fund independent and private schools (keeping in mind that not everyone would feel these things should be funded). Labor’s specific budget response proposals all get highly positive responses; more respondents oppose (39%) than favour (24%) removing the deficit levy on the top income tax rate; and an overwhelming majority (78% to 7%) expect the bank levy will be passed on to customers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,793 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Barney

    I can see your argument about religion being a mental illness. It does require having faith an invisible being is having an influence on your life.

    Of course that means there is an awful lot of mentally ill people in the world.

  2. Interestingly, a religious belief isn’t defined as a delusion if it is shared by enough in a community. But if you were the only person who believed in that system (spaghetti monster etc) then you would be considered delusional.

  3. From previous.

    swamprat @ #1838 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 10:39 am

    “liberals” are amusing in their tenacious ideology and group think.
    Criticism of islam is “racist”
    Someone consciously, deliberately and publicly proclaims their actions are in the name of islam/allah,
    they come from a pious family
    attend mosque regularly
    so it can only be mental illness.
    Mental illness is the necessary explanation, otherwise the liberal’s dogmas might be questioned. Haha
    liberal bullshit is so successful in ensuring tory victories.

    Maybe there’s no difference?

    Maybe religion is a mental illness?

  4. Barney

    I don’t know. I just know that it seems excuses to commit violence is a normal part of the human condition. From the street brawl all the way up to the extremists using suicide bombers.

  5. History clearly shows that having some sort of religious belief, including ones shared widely in particular societies, is perfectly normal, by almost any definition of that term.

  6. Yep Dio, you’re right. You’re either a lunatic or some kind of apostate if you don’t adhere to the mainstream thinking.

    From where I sit most religion is delusional … but because so many believe ….

    I often wonder whether a devout priest would think his entire life was wasted if he was to discover that his belief system was a lie.

  7. Barney @10:58
    ‘What is Normal?’
    Pontius Pilate asked ‘What is truth?’
    ‘Religion is the opium of the people’, as a very perceptive man said. After a disaster you will find a religious person saying ‘it was God’s grace that saved me!’, which implies that God acted disgracefully towards the victims. You will also find snake oil salespersons like May and Turnbull claiming that their version of vigilance (opium?) will save us all!

  8. Swamprat
    Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 10:39 am

    This is tantamount to blaming your political foes – “liberals” – for terrorism. Like the Tories, you are trying to politicise mass murder and peddle yet another phobia, yet another deception. This is totally scurrilous, disingenuous junk.

  9. The Greens have yet another new position on Gonski 2.0:

    Sarah Hanson-Young has raised the prospect that the Greens could block the Turnbull government’s schools package because even regular yearly increases may be more generous than the Gonski 2.0 plan.

    At a Christian schools policy forum in Canberra on Tuesday, the Greens’ education spokeswoman criticised both the former Labor government’s “unlegislated promises” and the Turnbull plan as “bastardisations” of David Gonski’s needs-based funding vision.


  10. Speaking of religion and mental illness, Chris Uhlmann writes for Quadrant, and Quadrant wants to bomb the oganisation he works for.

  11. C@Tmomma
    Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 11:19 am
    The Greens have yet another new position on Gonski 2.0:

    The Gs have reverted to their staple line, Labor = Liberal.

  12. Cat

    Factually the Greens have a point. Gonski did recommend not funding elite private schools and instead put that money to disadvantaged schools. Needs Basis funding its called.

    It follows the student not the school. So therefore those with money to burn with getting their swimming pools rowing sheds etc get less.

    I understand the Labor political reasons for its position of not a dollar less for all. I agree with it. However that does not make the Greens wrong. Just a political misjudgement that they will pay when those schools connected voters go to the ballot box.

  13. Why are all Fairfax’s best journalists sports writers?
    Greg Baum‏Verified account @GregBaum 8m8 minutes ago
    We’re dealing with a sick and dangerous religion here. It’s called the hard right:

  14. There is an interesting subtext to the Greens, the Roman Catholics and Gonski Gone Wrong.
    RC Systems are, in general, bigger than their counterparts on social justice. They spend more school time on it. It is more deeply embedded in the curriculum.
    Apart from marriage equality, there is a high overlap between the primary concerns of RC schools and the Greens.
    I would guess that there is a higher than average support for the Greens among certain groups of RCs.
    I assume that these good folk have filled Di Natale’s and SHY’s ears with a mixture of sweet nothings and political warnings about Turnbull’s unilateral breaking of the Agreement and the expensive consequences for RC schools.
    Doyley has noted another phenomenum – there is a high overlap between the Greens most successful electorate and catholic primary schools.
    OTOH, the Greens’ Trot’s division recognizes religion as the arch enemy of the Revolution.
    So the Greens’ Tree Tories, social justice RCs and hot to Trots are, IMO, likely to be quite riven by the different drivers and the different political options they must choose.
    The preferred default – blame Labor and Liberal for being the same has been such a success worldwide. It gave us Trump, Brexit, Turnbull, tried to give us Le Pen but failed and is now playing silly buggers with $22 billion in education funting – most of which would have gone to Australia’s poorest schools.

  15. So Monis was a terrorist according to the Coroner.
    I guess it all depends on what your definition of a terrorist is.
    I remain convinced he was nothing more than a vicious criminal, possibly mentally ill, who sought to ramp up publicity by falsely claiming a terrorist affiliation.

  16. S 777

    At different times and different places these young men and boys might have attached themselves to anarchist plots, extreme nationalism, communism, fascism, the Nazis, the Khmer Rouge or possibly some of the nihilist far left movements that developed in the 60s and 70s.

    Or property developers!

  17. Guytaur,
    Factually the Greens have a point. Gonski did recommend not funding elite private schools and instead put that money to disadvantaged schools. Needs Basis funding its called.

    However, the Teachers Federation has proven that if The Greens support Gonski 2.0 they will be supporting LESS money to the schools who look after the most disadvantaged children in our society, the Disabled and Special Needs children. There is a lot of crossover with the most disadvantaged schools here as well.

    The Greens may be supporting SOME of the needed money going to Needs-Based Funding, but it falls a long way short of what is required.

  18. How about all the wealthy tax avoiders do their bit and actually pay the proper amount of tax?

    Treasurer Scott Morrison insists all Australians must do their bit to fund the national disability insurance scheme as parliament considers a hike to the Medicare levy.

    Mr Morrison introduced legislation on Wednesday to increase the Medicare levy by 0.5 per cent to fully fund the scheme, urging Labor to get on board.

    “We implore the opposition to put aside the politics – we all have a responsibility to do our bit when it comes to fully funding the NDIS,” he told parliament.

  19. Cat

    Thats why I call it a political misjudgement. Its why I back Labor on this one. Better to change slowly over time than have it blocked by a campaign from the elite schools and allied media as we have seen in the past

  20. The Coroner also defended the type of ammunition used by the police but he kind of limited his thinking to ammunition for the type of weapon the police used, M4 carbines with 5.65mm high velocity ammunition. The type the army uses.
    I would have thought weapons firing lower velocity 9mm rounds might have been more appropriate at close quarters in a confined space.

  21. Apparently police snipers didn’t believe they had any authority to shoot Monis and risked their careers and even liberty if they had shot him.
    What then was their purpose in being there? Theatrics?

  22. “Chris Uhlmann writes for Quadrant”

    That fact alone should prohibit him from occupying the position of political correspondent on the ABC, in the same way that writing for the Socialist Weekly (if it still exists) would do the same.

  23. The Greens appear lost at the moment, bereft of leadership and searching for a reason for existence.

    I think that they should get back to what once were their core beliefs back when Bob Brown was in charge, and they had a focus on the environment.
    Surely there is more need for this, and the public will be more receptive to the message, than ever.

  24. So funny seeing the desperate efforts to smear Shorten. All the dopes who jumped in and fell for Conski 1.0, Medicare levy to pay for business and top rate tax cuts, and even the Man from Snowjob River 1.0 con still finding it hard to admit Bill is on the right side of them all. Poor ole SHY and the Greens backing away from their desperation to play ‘relevant’ and smack Labor on the way past is particularly hilarious.

    The idea that Labor should just say mission accomplished and give Trumble a big tick is too stupid for words. The idea that ‘needs based’ education funding is under threat by Labor demanding the full Gonski is ludicrous. The Libs have folded on ‘needs based’ funding. Labor has won that battle. Now the argument is over how much and how to pay for it. Shorten will win both of those fights because he has pretty much the entire education sector including Liberal state governments in his corner. Why would he surrender on the brink of victory? There is no comparison between this and a stupid Green 100% of nothing play. At the very worst Trumble will find more money. How ever much it is won’t be as much as what Labor are holding out for so anyone who enables the Libs will cop the blowback from those who want the full Gonski (pretty much everyone) as SHY has found out.

    The reason Trumble has capitulated on ‘needs based’ funding is the same reason Labor has folded on BOATS. He can never win so he just wants to make it go away. Labor would be idiots to just accept the thin gruel Brian is offering when the Libs have no real alternative than complete surrender.

    Same deal on Medicare Levy increases v Tax Cuts. People might be stupid. But they sure ain’t stupid enough to ignore the fact they’re having their taxes raised at the same time as the rich and business are getting a cut. Oh you need the money for NDIS? Tax paid by the rich and businesses can pay for NDIS just as easy as me paying a higher Medicare Levy. Bill’s idea therefore sounds much better. Essential confirms as much. Doubly so when wages are reducing in real terms and penalty rates are under attack.

    Emerson is usually a smarter cookie so I don’t know what he’s on about (maybe he’s been verballed by Stutch), but every day that goes by shows that Shorten’s instincts were spot on and everyone who jumped on the Brian Brainfart TM early are being exposed like a shag on a rock. Trumble will bend further or break. He simply needs the mythical Budget Bounce to arrive soon or he’s Gonski. He’s in no position to spend long weeks in the weeds arguing arcane numbers against Shorten who has the easier sell for more money for schools and no tax rises for the majority.

    The MSM will again be the last to notice.

  25. “History clearly shows that having some sort of religious belief, including ones shared widely in particular societies, is perfectly normal, by almost any definition of that term”

    ‘Normal’ ≠ not a mental illness. Also I’d describe it as ‘common’ not ‘normal. This is usually a subject I have to bite my tongue about as it inevitably triggers people, but I view religion as a mass shared psychosis. Different peoples delusions feeding off one another until it all adds up to a belief system.

    Whether you agree with that or not, I think it’s a pretty indisputable fact that religious institutions are often a sanctuary for the mentally ill, who are particularly drawn to religious belief because it satisfies the desire of a paranoid person to believe that there is a complex greater order to things or truth that the majority do not understand.

    Often religion gets ties up in their psychosis, making their condition worse and preventing them from seeking treatment. Shizophrenics are particularly succeptible to this. I was raised in a very devout family and my father was an anglican priest and many of my childhood friends were religious, so I saw these kinds of people frequently and even saw it happen to a close friend of mine, who has now actually accepted that he is a schizophrenic, receiving treatment and doing much better. We’ll see how long that lasts though.

    The only kind of religious person I trust is one who wrestles with doubt. At least I can meet them halfway. Whenever I meet a devout religious person who believes wholeheartedly I keep them at arms length and treat them with great deal of caution and suspicion.

  26. Forgot to change threads, here it is again:
    Re. the published parliamentary members’ mobile numbers:
    The Department of Parliamentary Services confirmed some MPs have requested new phone numbers following the privacy breach, but the Department will continue to use Telco Management.
    Where is the accountability here?
    Parliamentarians are really quick to jump on so called ‘dole bludgers’ and penalise them mercilessly for the slightest failure to fill in a form correctly; but when it comes to a company that breaches all sorts of privacy guidelines there is no penalty whatsoever.

  27. Blanket

    The only kind of religious person I trust is one who wrestles with doubt. At least I can meet them halfway. Whenever I meet a devout religious person who believes wholeheartedly I keep them at arms length and treat them with great deal of caution and suspicion.

    That’s how I view the fundies. Also atheists. 😉

  28. NHDems: Tonight, Democrats put our 1st cracks in the GOP Majority. Trump +7 & Romney +13 district goes to Dem for 1st time in history #nhpolitics

  29. He simply needs the mythical Budget Bounce to arrive soon or he’s Gonski.

    This may be part of the equation in, eg, Emerson’s mind. I’m not advocating any of the following reasoning, but it occurs to me it may be playing in some peoples’ minds.

    Imagine that Turnbull continues getting hammered from all sides, gets another couple of bad Newspolls and gets rolled in a month. Install Dutton or Morrison or Porter, or really whoever – not only would they be inherently more rabid than stand-for-nothing Turnbull, but they would owe their position very directly to the RWNJ faction that installed them over the quivering remnants of the moderates.

    Nothing from the Turnbull era would survive that transition – certainly not needs based funding or increasing taxes – we’d be back to Abbott – if not in terms of the actual person leading the Libs – in government but then immediately in opposition.

    Getting Turnbull’s proposals through, and perhaps giving Turnbull enough wins to keep him in place, could well be the best way to have some of these shifts in position by the Libs (as weak and insufficient as they are in themselves) cemented as a base for Labor.

    Labor may be in a position to get these things done properly when they return to government – or they may be held hostage by circumstance again. They may be able to properly hold off an Abbott-style opposition this time around (without any RGR – I’m looking at you, Albo!), or they may fall into bad old habits if there’s some turbulence (as there will undoubtedly be).

    I’m a little worried that Labor may fall into the trap that Rudd did over the CPRS – too busy trying to make political mileage out of wedging Turnbull and grinding him into the dirt rather than setting up the political and policy environment to get the best outcomes.

    If Shorten can get his point across (and I’m sure he can) about his preference for doing things in a more equitable, more progressive way, but then allowing most of the not-entirely-objectionable stuff to get through and allowing Turnbull to limp on to an election in late 2018 … that would suit me I reckon.

  30. So, the terrorist was a Libyan ISIS supporting terrorist, what a great idea it was to remove Gaddafi who was stopping ISIS. Ariana Grande represents everything ISIS hates, they hate music and western culture.

  31. This article by Jason Wilson analyses how the Right have figured out that humour can be used to sell your product (something that the Left appear to have forgotten how to do):

    Until recently, it would have been hard to imagine the combination of street violence meeting internet memes. But experts say that the “alt-right” have stormed mainstream consciousness by weaponizing irony, and by using humour and ambiguity as tactics to wrong-foot their opponents.

  32. I must have been the only person here taking any interest in the Lindt Cafe inquest.
    That surprises me.
    I think the Coroner mainly got it right but I have mentioned a few points where I didn’t follow his logic or thought he got it wrong.

  33. Centrelink seems to pile paperwork on paperwork, rather than getting rid of something once it’s redundant.

    So I’ve just filled out a 15 page form – at least 5 pages of this consisting of ‘tick NO if this is not relevant to you’ – which is word for word the same as the form I had to fill in on line.

    In fact, to save effort, I simply copied what I’d put on line directly on to the paper form.

    I did query this, and pointed out that I was providing information I’d already provided, but was basically told to do it anyway.

    I’m now supposed to scan the 15 pages and send them through, whereupon I assume they will be then entered manually into the system, when the system already has the information…

  34. The Sydney storm at 5am was a ripper. First the distant rumble sounding like possums on the roof, then a lightning bolt which looked like it filled the laundry in which I was standing then immediately a thunder crack which caused a cat to run under the bed, a child to run out from his room, me to say “Fucken hell” and my gravatar to lumber inside slightly more quickly than usual.
    To top it off, at dawn, the storm is visible off the coast while the sky is clearing with some pink tinged clouds to the west.

  35. A jump to the right would be suicide for the Libs. It’s not 2009-13 anymore. People have had a taste of Abbottism and enjoyed it as much as anyone chewing on a shit sandwich would. For all of his obvious faults Trumble is still more popular than the Liberals. It’s the only thing that’s saved him so far. It won’t save him forever though. That’s why he had to roll the dice with Labor-lite. Pandering to the right was killing him slowly, so he finally found a remnant vertebra or two and went for crash through or crash.

    Any change of PM will turn the next election from comfortable to wipe out. (but it’s still gonna happen)

    There is no threat at all of a new Rightard PM getting any nasties through the Senate. X at least is cluey enough to stand back far enough to not get hit by the shrapnel. No one (not even Di Natale) is going to stick their neck on the block to help a loon in a death spiral.

    The problem with giving Trumble even crumbs is that the Libs cuts and expenditure become Labor’s. Shorten has no need to take on such burdens. He has Brian by the balls. The only sane response is to squeeze and get him to implement as much as Labor’s agenda as you can before he gets the chop.

  36. The coroner said the police should have stormed the Cafe sooner.
    I have always been curious about the fact that hostages were able to escape but apparently police could not enter surreptitiously. A couple of armed cops quietly entering by that means would surely have been able to deal with Monis with far less drama and danger.
    What do others think?

  37. I agree with Bemused and Shellbell. 4 Corners on Lindt seige was great. Something about Sarah Ferguson being wasted there and needing to be back on 7.30…..

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