Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Another quiet week on voting intention from Essential Research, which also records a better reception for Labor’s budget proposals than the Coalition’s.

Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 54-46, the only change on the primary vote being a one point drop for Labor to 37%, with the Coalition on 37%, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 6%. An occasional question on the attributes of the parties yields little change since it was last asked in May, the biggest movers being “have good policies”, “clear about what they stand for” and “too close to big corporate and financial interests” for Labor, all of which are down five points. Another question finds Labor more trusted to find Medicare, the NDIS, universities, the age pension and public schools, but the Coalition more trusted to fund independent and private schools (keeping in mind that not everyone would feel these things should be funded). Labor’s specific budget response proposals all get highly positive responses; more respondents oppose (39%) than favour (24%) removing the deficit levy on the top income tax rate; and an overwhelming majority (78% to 7%) expect the bank levy will be passed on to customers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,793 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Depressing to read (pages 128ff) that police have been unable to work out where Monis acquired the 1960 shotgun he used. One day we hopefully will treat persons who own and sell unlicenced firearms like mid-level or higher drug dealers.

  2. Sh
    +1
    The difficult issue for me is this: if you were in charge and you thought (rightly or wrongly) that Monis might detonate a bomb which would kill everyone if detonated, what would you order?
    The sniping of Monis in the hope that the bomb was not set to auto-detonate on his death?
    Try and talk him down and out?

  3. The Sydney storm at 5am was a ripper.

    Wasn’t it! We had all you described and hail pinging off the windows too, but little miss 1.5 didn’t stir.

  4. @ Zoomster
    Be careful with Centerlink asking the same questions repeatedly. I’ve been on the end of a fair few financial report audits and it’s a common tactic of auditors to ask the same question several times, often of different people and/or spread over time, to check if the answer is the same each time.

  5. The mainstream media needs to stop promoting apologist idiots like Dr Clarke Jones and listen to people like Ayaan Hirsi Ali who are exposing the ISIS deathcult for what it is.

  6. boerwar @ #52 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 12:42 pm

    Sh
    +1
    The difficult issue for me is this: if you were in charge and you thought (rightly or wrongly) that Monis might detonate a bomb which would kill everyone if detonated, what would you order?
    The sniping of Monis in the hope that the bomb was not set to auto-detonate on his death?
    Try and talk him down and out?

    Monis was highly unlikely to have such capabilities. As soon as they knew his identity they should have been able to downgrade the likelihood of such capability.
    Interesting that the Coroner states:

    On the role of the two snipers positioned in Martin Place, Barnes said there was ambiguity over their ability to act. Though they were armed and equipped in accordance with standards, that was nonetheless insufficient because of the challenges of the “unique situation”.

    The snipers could not have shot Monis without “unacceptable risks” to hostages. The glass of the windows at which they were positioned was later found to have been too thick and hard to shoot through.

    I recall discussion of that at the time of the siege as it was a former bank premises. I don’t know what weapons the snipers had, but probably .223 or .30 calibre weapons. More powerful 0.50 calibre sniper weapons are available and the army probably has them. also, police (or army) could have used used explosives to remove the window. e.g. we saw such use in Manchester to open the door of a house being raided.
    Am I being too fanciful?

  7. BW
    When it was revealed late on the Monday night that the hostage taker was Man Monis, I thought it was just more attention seeking from a screwball I knew a bit about (including his High Court case against his conviction for sending the offensive letters).

    I felt reassured it would not end violently.

  8. Bree
    “So, the terrorist was a Libyan ISIS supporting terrorist, what a great idea it was to remove Gaddafi who was stopping ISIS. ”

    Where to begin…
    Gadaffi was ousted from his power by his own people.
    Under Gadaffi, Libya was responsible for its own acts of terrorism (remember Lockerbie?).
    The Manchester bomber was born in the UK.

  9. @ Bemused

    With the Lindt siege and other similar events, authorities are in an impossible position and have to quickly make huge calls under enormous pressure with far from ideal information.

    Often the “right” answer(s) are known only in hindsight. “Experts” employed by our media who comment on these situations really piss me off, they comment on these situations with the benefit of hindsight and the benefit of hours to make up their minds on what should have been done, without ever pointing out that what they are commenting and incident that went for 30 seconds or a minute from start to finish.

    Bemused comments about the hostages escaping and the possibility of the police covertly getting in are a case in point about spending hours analysing an incident that went for seconds from start to finish.

  10. I did not want to watch Four Corners because I though it would upset me.
    I don’t recall ever seeing an image of Katrina Dawson standing in the window before. There she was looking upwards presumably thinking of the gravity of the situation and her loved ones.

  11. shellbell @ #60 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 12:56 pm

    BW
    When it was revealed late on the Monday night that the hostage taker was Man Monis, I thought it was just more attention seeking from a screwball I knew a bit about (including his High Court case against his conviction for sending the offensive letters).
    I felt reassured it would not end violently.

    I guessed the identity before it was announced. But couldn’t think of his name.
    He was a screwball, no doubt about that. But when already involved in a murder, I thought he was dangerous.

  12. Our wonderful neighbour, who was born in Palestine and wears a hijab, looked very nervous this morning as she walked her 5 year-old daughter to school. In the wake of the Manchester bombing, I hope no ignorant/racist bogan decides to take verbal potshots at her. Y’know, coz it’s so easy to blame any and all Muslims for the deranged acts of a few individuals.

  13. grimace @ #62 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 12:57 pm

    @ Bemused
    With the Lindt siege and other similar events, authorities are in an impossible position and have to quickly make huge calls under enormous pressure with far from ideal information.
    Often the “right” answer(s) are known only in hindsight. “Experts” employed by our media who comment on these situations really piss me off, they comment on these situations with the benefit of hindsight and the benefit of hours to make up their minds on what should have been done, without ever pointing out that what they are commenting and incident that went for 30 seconds or a minute from start to finish.
    Bemused comments about the hostages escaping and the possibility of the police covertly getting in are a case in point about spending hours analysing an incident that went for seconds from start to finish.

    There were multiple escapes by hostages and even if there had been none, I would have thought police would have been looking for a means of getting inside the cafe unnoticed.
    The thing stretched on over many hours so there was time for thinking and planning.

  14. shellbell
    Doesn’t some blame have to be borne by the peeps who let him out on bail, or the police who failed to provide enough detail to the magistrate?

  15. BW
    I know her brother (not the one on TV) and sister-in-law and her father trapped me lbw in a social cricket game in 1991 (I thought it hit me a bit high).

  16. kakuru @ #66 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 1:04 pm

    Our wonderful neighbour, who was born in Palestine and wears a hijab, looked very nervous this morning as she walked her 5 year-old daughter to school. In the wake of the Manchester bombing, I hope no ignorant/racist bogan decides to take verbal potshots at her. Y’know, coz it’s so easy to blame any and all Muslims for the deranged acts of a few individuals.

    Did you consider walking with her?
    In situations such as riding public transport when I see a woman in a hijab, I always go on high alert ready to respond to any nutter. I also give them a friendly smile if our eyes meet.
    Not much, but I feel impelled to do whatever I can in the circumstances. I have many Muslim friends and most of the women don’t wear the hijab.

  17. Uhlmann doesn’t appear on the web site, but if this, from the editor, is an example of the standard of Quadrant’s writing and thought processes, perhaps that is just as well:

    The second cavalcader in this morning’s Silly Day parade is Barry’s fellow ABCer and host of The Drum, Ms Julia Baird, of whom it almost need not be noted that she also writes chin-strokers for the Sydney Morning Herald. In the way of dogs, the ABC and Fairfax are joined nose-to-bottom, each addicted to inhaling and exhaling the other’s noxious slants and inaccuracies. It was her Saturday piece in the SMH which prompted Mark Latham’s derision as reproduced below.”

  18. Lizzie, the police dropped the solicitor from the DPP who did Monis’ bail hearing right down the Brasco after the siege. Bloke was treated very badly.

  19. Lizzie
    I couldn’t answer your question properly without reading that section of the report but a convicted criminal alleged to have committed multiple sexual assaults and being an accessory to murder, while on parole, sounds like a bail refused case to me.
    Having said that, some of the informality and the shabby documents put before magistrates on bail applications invite errors.

  20. The Sydney storm at 5am was a ripper.

    I slept through it, didn’t hear a sound, yet I was up and out walking a bit after 6 am.
    Pavements and roads were damp but no gutters flowing.

  21. As I recall, Quadrant hasn’t always been as out-there as it has been of late. I imagine it is very dependent on the editor. I was under the impression that maybe 20 years ago it was recognized as a respectable – if very dry/conservative – journal.

  22. On Tuesday, CBS and NBC were quick to name the suspect believed to have blown himself up following an Ariana Grande concert at Manchester Arena as 22-year-old Salman Abedi. The Reuters news agency, an international organisation with headquarters in London, also published the name, citing “three US officials”, before British police made it public.

    The Trump administration’s apparent indiscretion seems likely to cause consternation in London and could raise questions about future cooperation in the long term.

    Thomas Sanderson, director of the transnational threats project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies thinktank in Washington, said the disclosures would be irritating to the British. “Suddenly you’ve got 10,000 reporters descending on the bomber’s house when maybe the police wanted to approach it more subtly,” he said.

    Sanderson warned of ill judgment and lack of discipline in the White House. “This is a leaky administration. What does that mean for sharing information we need to going forward? The UK and Israel are probably our two biggest sources of intelligence. Now they’re thinking, ‘Is this going to cause us damage every time we share?’ Then you have to calculate every piece of information.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/23/trump-administration-manchester-bomber-name-leak?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=227405&subid=22688624&CMP=ema_632

  23. Bemused
    “Did you consider walking with her?
    In situations such as riding public transport when I see a woman in a hijab, I always go on high alert ready to respond to any nutter. I also give them a friendly smile if our eyes meet.”

    She was walking to the bus stop, to catch the bus with her daughter. I would have like to accompany her all the way to the school, but I needed to get to work.
    Our neighborhood (inner SE Sydney) has a high immigrant population – not too many Arabs, mostly eastern Asians. Alas, there’s a bogan presence that one sees in the main street (especially in the vicinity of the local TAB). But overall I’ve seen very few instances of racism, usually emanating from people who clearly have mental health issues.

  24. ‘It makes me sick’: David Letterman disappointed to have ‘big, wealthy dope’ Trump representing the US

    Former “Late Show” host David Letterman on Monday told GQ he’s “disappointed” that Donald Trump is representing the United States, adding, “it makes me sick.”

    Despite this, Letterman said he has “no reason to regret” having Trump on his show. “He was a great guest. He was just a big, wealthy dope who’d come on and we would make fun of his hair. I would refer to him as a slumlord. But now, this goon… I don’t know.”

    “He’s demonstrated himself to be a man without a core, a man without a soul,” Letterman said. “Is there a guy in there?”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/05/it-makes-me-sick-david-letterman-disappointed-to-have-big-wealthy-dope-trump-representing-the-us/

  25. paaptsef @ #84 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 1:25 pm

    “The glass of the windows at which they were positioned was later found to have been too thick and hard to shoot through.”
    I guess this never really happened then http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/lindt-cafe-martin-place-vandal-throws-rocks-through-windows/news-story/eae9c09c8e15d27f9dce7f15d47bc8c4

    Must have been one of the side windows.
    There is comment about the possibility of a shot through one of them on one occasion, but the sniper was unsure of the identity of the person in his sights.

  26. ‘ In the way of dogs, The Australian and Quadrant are joined nose-to-bottom, each addicted to inhaling and exhaling the other’s noxious slants and inaccuracies.’

    There, fixed it. 😉

  27. kakuru @ #87 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 1:31 pm

    BTW, Bemused – kudos for your kindness toward people who wear the hijab. I take my hat off.

    I am just incensed at some of the stories in the news and would certainly intervene in such cases. I am no youngster but am fairly tall and solid and possessed of a naturally powerful voice, so a deterrent in most circumstances.
    The only occasion I did intervene was not involving a Muslim person but there was a guy on a tram who was just being generally verbally abusive to fellow passengers. He may have been drunk or had mental health issues. I drew myself up to my full height and pointed at him and said as loudly as I could without shouting “behave yourself!” It did the trick, but I also informed the tram driver when alighting so he could call ahead to arrange a reception party.

  28. bemused @ #92 Wednesday, May 24th, 2017 – 1:41 pm

    greensborough growler @ #90 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 1:39 pm

    kakuru @ #87 Wednesday, May 24th, 2017 – 1:31 pm

    BTW, Bemused – kudos for your kindness toward people who wear the hijab. I take my hat off.

    Or,your Hijab!.
    But, agree. bemused showing some respect/consideration is a pleasant revelation

    It’s part of my nature GG.

    You’ve got your accolade. Now go and earn another one!

  29. IMO, mass delusion is the norm rather than the exception.
    For example, something like 25% of the Australian population as polled still trusts the Turnbull Government.

  30. After a somewhat lacklustre QT by Labor yesterday, Shorten’s first Q indicates that Labor might finally have targetted the correct issue.
    Incidentally, as I have been banging on about for some time, the answer to Bill’s first question is ‘$22 billion’.
    That is NOT the answer that Turnbull will give.

  31. shellbell @ #96 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 1:58 pm

    I can’t remember any stand off/hostage crisis in NSW ever involving a police sniper firing a shot

    I would hope every hostage situation would end without any shots being fired.
    But with an ‘unstable’ and proven violent hostage taker, a single well placed shot may be the best way of ending it if negotiations are leading nowhere and there is a perceived real risk to hostages.

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