Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Another quiet week on voting intention from Essential Research, which also records a better reception for Labor’s budget proposals than the Coalition’s.

Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 54-46, the only change on the primary vote being a one point drop for Labor to 37%, with the Coalition on 37%, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 6%. An occasional question on the attributes of the parties yields little change since it was last asked in May, the biggest movers being “have good policies”, “clear about what they stand for” and “too close to big corporate and financial interests” for Labor, all of which are down five points. Another question finds Labor more trusted to find Medicare, the NDIS, universities, the age pension and public schools, but the Coalition more trusted to fund independent and private schools (keeping in mind that not everyone would feel these things should be funded). Labor’s specific budget response proposals all get highly positive responses; more respondents oppose (39%) than favour (24%) removing the deficit levy on the top income tax rate; and an overwhelming majority (78% to 7%) expect the bank levy will be passed on to customers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,793 thoughts on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. The problem for Turnbull is that people are now hip to the fact that he will milk terrorist incidents for all he is worth. Which is a lot!

  3. FWIW my sense of the reactions to Manchester is that terrsm has lost some of its political power to move.

    Exactly. Instead they are proudly declaring, ‘We Shall Not Be Moved!’

  5. Guardian
    27s ago 14:10

    Matthew Killoran at the Courier Mail reports:

    A KEY One Nation staffer Sean Black has been arrested by detectives.

    Mr Black is a media adviser to Queensland Senator Malcolm Roberts and was taken through the Roma Street watch-house just before midday Wednesday.

    He is facing a number of charges that The Courier-Mail cannot publish for legal reasons.

  6. ‘ (I thought it hit me a bit high).’
    It is remarkable how we remember these sorts of things.

    Never once been out LBW.

    The umpire stuck his finger up plenty of times, but I was never out.

  12. ‘ (I thought it hit me a bit high).’
    It is remarkable how we remember these sorts of things.

    I am still bitter about being given out caught behind off one that flicked my pad down leg, in year 7. I was opening, on 8 after lacing two boundaries and seeing them like watermelons. Except for the one I missed down leg, that is.

  15. Sean Black has some history –

    He served as a Logan City Councillor for four years, from 2008, and was previously married to fellow councillor Hajnal Ban.

  18. guytaur @ #5 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 11:01 am

    Barney
    I don’t know. I just know that it seems excuses to commit violence is a normal part of the human condition. From the street brawl all the way up to the extremists using suicide bombers.

    Whether violence is normal or not, we all have to constrain our behaviour in certain ways to coexist with each other.

    For a society to function effectively there needs to be limits on certain behaviours.

    It is normal to want more for yourself and your family, but society says you can not achieve this by taking things from others without their permission.

    Most of us are able to demonstrate self-constraint and not act on this desire, others are not or don’t care.

    Neither is an excuse and society has mechanisms to deal with them, from social welfare to allow those in need to live in the society to criminal sanctions.

    The same is true of violence where our society says there is no place and no excuse for initiating violence.

    So, I believe there are many normal behaviours that we need to temper to allow society to function and failing to do so can not be excused as something they or we as a society had no control over.

  19. Quadrant online editor makes a threat, causing the ABC to call in the police. Some mentally unstable RWNJ could read his article and actually attack ABC staff.

    The Australian Federal Police has been notified that the online editor of the Australian conservative journal Quadrant wrote an opinion piece saying that, “had there been a shred of justice”, the Manchester blast would have “detonated in an Ultimo TV studio”.

    He added that, if such an attack took place, “none of the panel’s likely casualties would have represented the slightest reduction in humanity’s intelligence, decency, empathy or honesty”.

    The piece, written by Quadrant’s online editor, Roger Franklin, was posted on Tuesday night as coverage continued of the terrorist attack in Manchester that has so far killed 22.

    The contentious passage was later amended to begin: “What if that blast had detonated in an Ultimo TV studio?” and it remains on the journal’s site, entitled “The Manchester Bomber’s ABC Pals”…

    Asked to comment, Quadrant editor and prominent historian Keith Windschuttle, a former ABC board member, told Fairfax Media, “You’re talking bullshit, don’t call back.”

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/quadrant-online-editor-roger-franklin-laments-that-manchester-blast-was-not-against-abc-20170523-gwbreb.html

  22. Vogon Poet @ #114 Wednesday, May 24th, 2017 – 2:28 pm

    Sean Black was originally in Labor, funnily enough, working on a One Nation dirt file. To quote from the article, he’s blighted every organisation he’s been with.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/from-one-nation-slayer-to-one-nation-staffer-sean-blacks-rocky-path-20161111-gsnfgj.html

    He’s worked for Labor, the LNP and One Nation. But never the Greens. Obviously, he has some standards.

  23. greensborough growler @ #122 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 3:05 pm

    Vogon Poet @ #114 Wednesday, May 24th, 2017 – 2:28 pm

    Sean Black was originally in Labor, funnily enough, working on a One Nation dirt file. To quote from the article, he’s blighted every organisation he’s been with.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/from-one-nation-slayer-to-one-nation-staffer-sean-blacks-rocky-path-20161111-gsnfgj.html

    He’s worked for Labor, the LNP and One Nation. But never the Greens. Obviously, he has some standards.

    Or maybe they do?

  24. Bemused
    I would hope every hostage situation would end without any shots being fired.
    But with an ‘unstable’ and proven violent hostage taker, a single well placed shot may be the best way of ending it if negotiations are leading nowhere and there is a perceived real risk to hostages.

    I don’t have unlimited trust in the Police in any and all circumstances – but as far as I am concerned, they did what they could during the Lindt hostage event, and they did it professionally. They ascertained and contained the threat to the public while keeping them calm as they sought to negotiate with the hostage-taker and try to help as many of the hostages as possible. Any lives lost in such a situation is a tragedy, but to have lost two lives out of a possible eighteen was far from the worst result that could have happened.

    If the Police didn’t “take the shot” it is because they judged that there was no time that was appropriate and safe to take it. In this case, I totally trust that the Police would have made the best possible call given the high-pressure circumstances and limited information available to them.

  25. GG
    “He’s worked for Labor, the LNP and One Nation. But never the Greens. Obviously, he has some standards.”

    I assumed he was in training to become a Green.

  26. Barney in Go Dau @ #123 Wednesday, May 24th, 2017 – 3:08 pm

    greensborough growler @ #122 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 3:05 pm

    Vogon Poet @ #114 Wednesday, May 24th, 2017 – 2:28 pm

    Sean Black was originally in Labor, funnily enough, working on a One Nation dirt file. To quote from the article, he’s blighted every organisation he’s been with.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/from-one-nation-slayer-to-one-nation-staffer-sean-blacks-rocky-path-20161111-gsnfgj.html

    He’s worked for Labor, the LNP and One Nation. But never the Greens. Obviously, he has some standards.

    Or maybe they do?

    Or maybe it was an ego thing. He couldn’t blight and organisation that’s already a blight in its own right.

  29. A PHON staffer (who was formerly working for Labor and the Liberals) is arrested, and that is used as an excuse to criticise the Greens.

    Objection, relevance?

  30. QLD Police confirm One Nation staffer Sean Black charged w/ “3 counts assault occasioning bodily harm,3 counts common assault,1 count rape”

  31. Schadenfreude George‏ @GeorgeBludger · 4h4 hours ago

    Can someone explain to me how @yassmin_a comments evoke full wrath of News Ltd but Quadrant’s wish to see ABC staff murdered goes unnoticed?

    Q obviously rhetorical 😉

  34. I suspect that the issue with shooting through thick glass is not that the bullet won’t go through it and retain sufficient energy to be lethal; it almost certainly will. The problem is much more likely to be that, having hit the glass, the bullet is likely to be both distorted and to have been deflected from its original path. As a result, you’re left with a lethal projectile spinning off on a completely unpredictable path which may send it through the original target but may equally send it through one of the hostages.

  35. Can someone explain to me how @yassmin_a comments evoke full wrath of News Ltd but Quadrant’s wish to see ABC staff murdered goes unnoticed?

    This will occupy the entire front page of tomorrow’s Daily Telecrap and its stablemates in other cities, backed up by a furious editorial and swingeingly condemnatory articles by Miranda Devine and the Tele’s other Right wing Foghorn Leghorns, accusing Quadrant of supporting terrorism. Then we’ll have editorials and detailed analysis by columnists in the Australian, including a 16,000 word double page spread by Paul Kelly.

  36. VE
    “A PHON staffer (who was formerly working for Labor and the Liberals) is arrested, and that is used as an excuse to criticise the Greens.
    Objection, relevance?”

    No excuse – guilty as charged. Just shits and giggles.

  37. NBN Co Facebook have been increasing their Properganda.

    This time they announced ‘new’ technology “NG-PON2”.

    The fact is they are recycling old grounds, because PON upgrade path already had this in the pipe line under the original NBN rollout!

    So once again NBN Co lying out of their asses.

  39. jimmydoyle @ #124 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 3:08 pm

    Bemused
    I would hope every hostage situation would end without any shots being fired.
    But with an ‘unstable’ and proven violent hostage taker, a single well placed shot may be the best way of ending it if negotiations are leading nowhere and there is a perceived real risk to hostages.

    I don’t have unlimited trust in the Police in any and all circumstances – but as far as I am concerned, they did what they could during the Lindt hostage event, and they did it professionally. They ascertained and contained the threat to the public while keeping them calm as they sought to negotiate with the hostage-taker and try to help as many of the hostages as possible. Any lives lost in such a situation is a tragedy, but to have lost two lives out of a possible eighteen was far from the worst result that could have happened.
    If the Police didn’t “take the shot” it is because they judged that there was no time that was appropriate and safe to take it. In this case, I totally trust that the Police would have made the best possible call given the high-pressure circumstances and limited information available to them.

    I previously quoted the reasons why the police did not ‘take the shot’.
    The Coroner was not impressed with certain aspects of their involvement.

  40. “Can someone explain to me how @yassmin_a comments evoke full wrath of News Ltd but Quadrant’s wish to see ABC staff murdered goes unnoticed?”

    Free speech only applies to white folk. Yassmin (being of the tinted peoples) was being uppity, and didn’t know her place. The Quadrant numpty was asserting his right to exercise free speech.

  41. Lindt- I have no concerns about how the front line police acted. What concerns me is the systematic failures of the senior police- up to Scippione- to have the facilities and training in place for such a situation.
    We have spent billions on counter terrorism, so where was the (permanent) terrorism operations centre in Central Sydney? Dedicated phone lines and mobiles? Trained and dedicated negotiation staff (the ‘negotiator’ was dealing with many different situations across NSW and never once spoke to Monis)? This occurred in the centre of Sydney, the most likely target in the country, but none of these facilities were in place. Who was responsible for letting the front line officers down0- and why are they not being held to account? What would happen (heaven forbid) if 10 men with machine guns went on a rampage on NYE?
    I worked in NSW health, were we had 72 facilities that were potential hostage sites. We created a central control room, phone/ mobile and satellite phone access to all sites, MOUs with all emergency services, monthly drills, training and meetings etc….it looks like we would have been more prepared than the NSW Police.

  44. The people dealing with the Lindt Cafe situation had to deal with a terrible situation where they had to make choices in a split second where all choices had potentially disasterous and lethal consequences.

  45. theintellectualbogan @ #134 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 3:42 pm

    I suspect that the issue with shooting through thick glass is not that the bullet won’t go through it and retain sufficient energy to be lethal; it almost certainly will. The problem is much more likely to be that, having hit the glass, the bullet is likely to be both distorted and to have been deflected from its original path. As a result, you’re left with a lethal projectile spinning off on a completely unpredictable path which may send it through the original target but may equally send it through one of the hostages.

    Nope.
    The facts, as reported by the Coroner, are that the bullets the police marksmen had would not have penetrated the glass. The cafe was in former bank premises. There probably were sufficiently powerful weapons in the hands of the army.

  46. The management at my husband’s work summoned the union reps to meet with them today (the lock out is now five weeks’ in…)

    Nothing new on the table (in fact, less than when the lock out began), but they’re demanding a vote (in two weeks’ time).

    Unbelievable arrogance.

  47. What a load of Conservative cobblers!

    Conservatism is our virtue while liberalism is the vision — Tim Wilson (The Australian $): “Liberalism is the force of water through a loose garden hose that flaps around indiscriminately after the tap has been turned on. Conservatism is the calming hand that directs the hose towards the plants needing hydration.”

    🙄

  48. steve777 @ #144 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 3:54 pm

    The people dealing with the Lindt Cafe situation had to deal with a terrible situation where they had to make choices in a split second where all choices had potentially disasterous and lethal consequences.

    How many hours did it drag on for?
    They had plenty of time to make plans and carry them out.
    Instead they were in a purely reactive mode with Monis in control.
    Scippione proved once again he is a boofhead and his off-sider Burn followed the leader.

  49. Zoomster,
    I hope your husband stays strong. They’ve come too far to turn back now. Victory for the employers just emboldens them for the next time wages negotiations are to occur.

    I know it may sound trite when you are having to exist on the smell of an oily rag but I remember from back in the day when my grandfather was on strike for a year and the local community rallied around the striking men, making meals for the families, passing around the hat when bills came due and just generally being there for them.

    I bet the employer is also calculating on the fact that it’s going to be getting cold in your neck of the woods now and so is likely thinking that they can wait them out, but this is when the little guy has to show them what solidarity means and how committed they are to the fight for justice.

    I’ll come down and give a rabble-rousing speech if you like, or tap dance, or whatever! 🙂

  50. c@tmomma @ #147 Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 4:01 pm

    Conservatism is our virtue while liberalism is the vision — Tim Wilson (The Australian $): “Liberalism is the force of water through a loose garden hose that flaps around indiscriminately after the tap has been turned on. Conservatism is the calming hand that directs the hose towards the plants needing hydration.”

    Does that make the LNP is the manure you spread over the plants?

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