BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Lots of new data but still no movement on BludgerTrack’s voting intention trend, although there’s a little more going on with leaders’ net approval ratings.

A big week for opinion polling hasn’t translated into a big week for BludgerTrack, which records basically no movement at all on two-party preferred, although there’s some movement on the primary vote from the minor to the major parties, the Greens to Labor especially. On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one in Victoria and South Australia, but down one in Queensland. There is a little more activity on the leadership ratings, for which new numbers were provided by Newspoll and Ipsos, with both leaders improving on net approval.

I’ve now reintroduced Ipsos to the model, which had hitherto been excluded because there were only two data points since the election, and one of them – the first poll in November – was a particularly peculiar result. It still is, a little, but the pollster’s three results together now look acceptably normal after bias adjustments which shift of big chunk of the Greens’ surely inflated primary vote to Labor. Since the latest result for Ipsos was better for the Coalition than the last result in particular, it should up relatively strongly for them.

ReachTEL is not included at this stage, because I require more than one result before I can usefully apply bias adjustments, and last week’s efforts for Sky News and Seven effectively count as a single result as they were conducted at the same time. The media did report on a poll it conducted for GetUp! in January, but this is excluded on the basis of being privately conducted.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,847 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 30 of 37
1 … 29 30 31 … 37

  9. QandA: #QandA heads to Parliament House, Canberra to discuss 1967 & Mabo – Moving Forward. Register for the audience now: www2b.abc.net.au/AudienceBookin…

  10. Two men in indonesia are getting 85 canings in public for having sex in private and 141 men arrested at gay sauna. islam’s war against gays continue.

  11. Two men in indonesia are getting 85 canings in public for having sex in private and 141 men arrested at gay sauna. islam’s war against gays continue.

  12. Jesus H Christ

    What does ‘H’ stand for? {evil}

    I have always said, ‘Jesus F Christ!’

    No guessing what the ‘F’ stands for. 🙂

  14. boerwar @ #1422 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 1:45 pm

    JR
    ‘Napoleon also ‘redesigned’ Paris. He wanted more Boulevards.
    Vive la Francé’
    That might have been the junior Napoleon.
    It was not so much boulevards that he sought as clear lines of fire for artillery to use when suppressing the citizenry.

    That reminds me of the student protests in Yangon in 1988.

    A major problem for the military was getting to the University quickly as all the roads were single lane and very congested.

    This allowed the protesters to secure there positions and increase their numbers making the military’s job much harder.

    Now if you go to Yangon you will find many multi-lane roads throughout the city, these were built in the aftermath to facilitate the military’s movement within the city so as to quell any further uprisings.

  18. c@tmomma @ #1462 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 2:50 pm

    Jesus H Christ
    What does ‘H’ stand for? {evil}
    I have always said, ‘Jesus F Christ!’
    No guessing what the ‘F’ stands for. 🙂

    In the distant past when I used it, I didn’t stop at the initial and expanded into its continuous form. 🙂

  19. More grist for the energy warmill.

    Snowy Hydro expansion could cost double initial $2 billion estimate

    Big PS .. and take two extra years.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/snowy-hydro-expansion-could-cost-double-initial-2-billion-estimate-20170523-gwb0vy.html
    What the article fails to mention is that the Snowy pumped hydro relies on a soon to be obsolete centralised generation and storage business model, where power is bought cheaply at night and sold at peak demand.
    Two reasons why this will not work:
    – local battery storage will eliminate daily price differentials which are needed for a Snowy 2.0 business model
    – there will be less demand for power from the grid with associated transmission costs (currently 50% of retail) in favor of behind the meter storage, in both the domestic and industrial markets.

  23. workmanalice: Brandis says senior Sydney silk Guy Reynolds says Dr Gillespie doesn’t have a section 44 problem because of indirectness #estimates

  24. joshgnosis: Brandis can’t say if the advice from Sydney silk Guy Reynolds was before the Bob Day High Court decision. #estimates

  29. BIDG
    On a very entirely mundane scale, the space between the Ming Wing and the Student Union at Monash during the Vietnam days was a large open space.
    They progressively segmented it into smaller and smaller spaces so that any unruly foules were more manageable.

  31. boerwar @ #1479 Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 3:11 pm

    BIDG
    On a very entirely mundane scale, the space between the Ming Wing and the Student Union at Monash during the Vietnam days was a large open space.
    They progressively segmented it into smaller and smaller spaces so that any unruly foules were more manageable.

    That was another tactic in Burma, they decentralised the University, opening small campuses around the city so large groups could not quickly form.

  33. C@tmomma Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 2:50 pm
    Jesus H Christ
    What does ‘H’ stand for? {evil}

    I have always said, ‘Jesus F Christ!’

    No guessing what the ‘F’ stands for

    *****************************************
    As a fine upstanding Lady – I guess you thought it was Francis or Frederick or some such …

  36. BiGD,
    In the distant past when I used it, I didn’t stop at the initial and expanded into its continuous form.

    As a teacher I would expect you to be a stickler for the correct form. 🙂

  37. Phoenix Red,
    I’ll tell you a story. When the kids were little we had a policy of not swearing in front of them so that they didn’t learn any bad words from us, their parents. So I invented a word to substitute for the ‘F’ word. It took a lot of practice to get my brain into gear instantaneously to say one word and not the other. My efforts lasted until the kids were about 18 and said, “Mum, we’ve been hearing the real word that you’re trying not to say since Year 6!”

    Relieved, I reverted to my old practice but instead trying not to say it, too much, at all. Extra relieved that I didn’t have to keep remembering to say, “Ferguggle”, instead. 🙂

  38. CTaR1
    Thank you.
    Most of those images show the hideously difficult technical challenge of getting detail into both black and white plumage. You might note that either the black is a single plane colour blob with no variation or depth (see the blacks on some of the adult adeles… OR the white is blown into a single pane colour blob with no variation or depth (see the white on the albatros).
    The best light for pied birds is dull light under, say, a high cover of light cloud, a light fog, or the minutes just after sunrise and just before dusk.
    If the light is bright (Antarctica summer plus glare reflecting from ice) then the problem is even worse.
    I would rate most of the linked images as a bare pass.

  39. Mesma up for an interview with Speers on PM Agenda.
    Have hardly seen hide nor hair of her there for ages.
    Terrism, of course.

  41. Trying hard to make a connection with Aussies.
    ‘A million Australians visit there every year.
    Several hundred thousand live there.’
    She intones.
    Instead of drawing the correct conclusion… that an individual’s chances of getting hurt in a terrsm incident is miniscule, she puffs up the risk, the danger and the terror… on behalf of whom, exactly?

  44. C@tmomma Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 3:30 pm
    Phoenix Red,
    I’ll tell you a story. When the kids were little we had a policy of not swearing in front of them so that they didn’t learn any bad words from us, their parents.

    ***********************************************
    C@t – I understand and share the same sentiments as you. That said, life’s disappointments, frustrations and hammer on thumb are harder to take when you don’t know any swear words.

    So there is nothing better than a well said FUCK !!! …… when the need arises ….

  49. C@

    Two stories…

    A couple pledged never to argue in front of the children. One day, the mother was horrified to find the two kids in a full on fight. “Who started it?” she asked as she separated them. One kid pointed to the other and said, “He called me ‘darling’ first!”

    ..A kid knocked on the staffroom door, and said to the teacher who opened it, “I want to speak to Miss Clark.”

    “I beg your pardon?” said the teacher.

    “I want to talk to Miss Clark.”

    “What’s the magic word?” the teacher asked.

    The kid, looking a bit puzzled, said, “Fuck?”

Comments Page 30 of 37
1 … 29 30 31 … 37

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *