ReachTEL: 53-47 and 54-46 to Labor

Disappointing results for the government from the first two voting intention measures after the budget, despite strong support for the bank and Medicare levies.

Sky News reports the first post-budget poll, from ReachTEL, has Labor leading 53-47. After exclusion of the 10.6% undecided, the primary vote results are Liberal 34.2%, Nationals 3.8%, Labor 34.1%, One Nation 11.0% and Greens 10.9%. Nonetheless, the bank levy appears to have gone down well, recording 39.8% strong support, 22.3% support, 22% neutral, 8.3% oppose, 7.9% strongly oppose, and the Medicare levy appears to have been well received as tax hikes go, with 48.2% in favour and 34.1% opposed. Nonetheless, 51.6% rated that the budget would make them worse off, 10.8% better off, and 37.6% about the same. I believe the poll was conducted last night; can’t help you with sample size at this point (UPDATE: correct on the first count, 2300 on the latter).

UPDATE: It seems a second, completely different ReachTEL poll was commissioned by Seven News and conducted on the same evening, and this one had Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. However, no primary votes are provided, which is significant because a closer look at the numbers from the Sky News poll suggests the two-party result reflects a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to Labor – applying flows from last year’s federal election, the result would be 51.5-48.5. The Seven poll had similar supplementary questions and got similar answers: the bank levy recorded 60% approval and 18% disapproval, the Medicare increase 51% approval and 28% disapproval, but the budget overall was rated good or very good by only 29%, poor or very poor by 33%, and average by the rest. No sample size to relate at this point.

UPDATE 2: Here’s the regular weekly BludgerTrack update, which incorporates only the latest Essential Research results and not these two from ReachTEL.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,058 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 and 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 22
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  1. With the Nats facing a One nation wipeout, does dinatale see an opening for the white australia party to form a coalition with the libs…

  2. I think people have realised, why go for the pale imitation in survival mode, when you can have the real thing?

    I think people are just sick of bullshit.

    Labor needs to keep that firmly front of mind. I do hope they are underpromising. I don’t see anything in their promises so far that aren’t achievable, especially since they have outlined nasties like cuts to Neg Gearing and Cap Gains.

    Abbott promised the world at no cost – it was bullshit so he was soon treated with contempt.
    Turnbull promised a new politics – it was bullshit. He got a bit more leeway because the media are dopes, but no one believes a word he says now.

    Shorten needs to cut the bullshit. Deliver the nasties forshadowed and nothing further. Provide the goodies promised and bank any windfalls for term 2. Be essentially boring. He’ll go into the top job with low expectations, but that doesn’t give him room to break his word. Keep his word however (and don’t make stupid promises like budget surpluses, yes I’m looking at you Wayne) and no amount of Murdoch/ABC smear will stick.

  4. I find it hard to get my head around a Party like the Greens whose supporters are mostly left leaning idealists, and whose parliamentary representatives are mostly self-interested authoritarians.

  5. does dinatale see an opening for the white australia party to form a coalition with the libs…

    White Australia Party – Love it. The Greens team photo does look like the Whitey McWhiteface family reunion doesn’t it.

  7. I was reachtel polled yesterday 4 different options. You could do a sport survey politics survey and 2 others. Pb poster gave all 4 the other day
    I selected politics who gets your vote alp greens etc what age cat.

    Some other stuff once I pressed the buttons hung up

  8. I notice in that report Riley is still accentuating the LNP positives, even in the face of the numbers, which is why I haven’t watched Ch7 news for ages.

  9. ‘Question – Sun Tzu backwards’

    Which is an excellent description of Trumbles strategic prowess.
    From a quick google
    https://suntzusaid.com/book/6

    An example
    ‘Therefore the clever combatant imposes his will on the enemy, but does not allow the enemy’s will to be imposed on him. ‘

    Shorten ‘boxed in’ indeed. I wonder if they will be still talking that line on Insiders.

    I expect IPSOS Sunday night and Newspoll Monday night.
    I might have to revise my 52:48 to Labor prediction.

  10. Most here will recall the recent Essential that included questions about expectations about the impact of the budget, mostly negative.
    Maybe this poll/s? reflect that people’s expectations were confirmed, notwithstanding the spruiking on the ABC about how masterful the budget was in neutralising Shorten.

  11. Malcolm raised people’s expectations to stratospheric levels. He was going to be a new breed of politician. But all he does is run around the country bagging Bill Shorten and can’t articulate how he is going to make anyone’s lives better. So he’s now a victim of those expectations.

  12. “When Trump raises fear of immigrant terrorists,” says Fry. “Keep in mind that since 9/11, no one has died in a terrorist attack by immigrants from the countries he wants to ban.”

    Meanwhile, Fry explains, Trump has slashed the Environmental Protection Agency budget even though air pollution is responsible for 200,000 early deaths in the U.S.

    “The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance,” Fry finishes. “It is the illusion of knowledge.”

    http://mashable.com/2017/05/11/stephen-fry-donald-trump-animation/#V_oQQFRmgPqt

  13. Thanks Question. Had to watch without sound because of where I am at present but will watch with sound later. It’s enough to establish it’s not the same poll. Didn’t see any primaries.

  14. There is something a bit creepy about Malcolm drug-testing welfare recipients and claiming it’s because he’s a luuurvvv machine.

  16. KB,
    Yes, it sounds like a separate poll. Also I got robocalled last night and didn’t get the choices MrMoney mentioned, so it seems they have been busy.

    BTW, they didn’t accept my vote, so whichever poll called me should have the ALP 0.1% higher on a sample of 1000 and 0.05% higher on 2000 : )

  17. I like how Riley on 7 made a point of the popularity of the bank tax. As if that helps Turnbull. Does he think Labor is going to oppose it? Run a poll on if people think after you whack a tax on the banks you should also get em answering the tough questions to a Royal Commissioner and see what sort of numbers you get then. That’s Labor’s policy, vehemently opposed (for the time being) by Brian T.

  19. Tony Burke:

    ‘ Question 2 was a very simple question from Bill. He asked what was the updated cost of the Government’s company tax cut. First Malcolm Turnbull said $26 billion, then Scott Morrison said $36.5 billion dollars. At this moment Chris Bowen called out “We have to stop asking these questions, it’s going up too quickly, the country can’t afford it.”

  21. I wonder where Mal ‘The Chameleon’ Trumble will turn next.

    Coming over all Donald Trump hasn’t worked. Aussies have never bought into the American Dream of ‘Life is one big Totem Pole of Shit’. So being because it is covered in the excrement of those who shit on everyone on the way up, and it makes for a very slippery ride on the way down.

    Australians have had the opportunity to be that way but have resisted America’s overtures to be more like them for more than a century, and have carved their own way in the world, like Canada.

    So Malcolm has gotten that message, as he received more howls of laughter, as opposed to being hailed by the people, as a result of worshiping at the Temple of Donald.

    Causing the Chameleon to attempt to change his spots with the Budget. But it’s been sooo transparent as he morphed into Malcolm the Munificent. God, what version of Malcolm are we up to!?!

    Orphan Malcolm; Rhodes Scholar Malcolm; Spycatcher Malcolm; Republican Malcolm; Goldman Sachs Malcolm; Kerry Packer Malcolm; Utegate Superstar Malcolm; Tony Abbott Roadkill Malcolm; Crucified for his Principles Malcolm; Resurrected Malcolm; Abbott-Stalking Wolf in a Sheep’s Leather Jacket Malcolm; finally Prime Minister Malcolm; Fizza Malcolm; and now, Bill Shorten Malcolm.

    Which ineluctably leads us to the question, what exactly does Malcolm Turnbull stand for precisely?

    I think the electorate have got motion sickness trying to figure it out.

  23. Cat,
    What about “Flying around the world and grinning like a loon while congratulating Trump on the progress of gutting Obamacare after being kept waiting 3 hours and having the meeting time halved” Turnbull?

    I know people who don’t care about politics who noticed that wooden sycophancy. And they didn’t like it.

  25. Leroy @Leroy_Lynch
    #ReachTEL ran two separate national polls, paid for by diff news sources. Channel 7: TPP ALP 54 L/NP 46
    Skynews: TPP ALP 53 L/NP 47#auspol

  32. question
    Good point re: Trumbles sycophancy in relation to Trump and how people react to it.
    If Trump does get done, as in being turfed from being POTUS, it’s going to go down like a lead balloon.
    I’m not convinced that Trump is smart enough to avoid getting turfed, however, I’m sceptical about whether or not the US legal system can successfully prosecute him before he emasculates them.

  35. Darn got “emojied” ,it was a suggestion of ‘Trump Toady Turnbull’ 60 seconds slower than Question’s reply.

  36. We made the New York Times.
    Thanks fkng weasel treasonous skidmark on Australia Malcolm bloody Turnbull…

    How Australia Bungled Its $36 Billion Highspeed Internet Roll It.

    read it and weep for what might have been.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/11/world/australia/australia-slow-internet-broadband.html?ribbon-ad-idx=6&rref=world/australia&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Australia&pgtype=article

  37. Leroy @Leroy_Lynch
    #ReachTEL ran two separate national polls, paid for by diff news sources. Channel 7: TPP ALP 54 L/NP 46
    Skynews: TPP ALP 53 L/NP 47#auspol

    Why would you run two polls when Sky/Ch7 could just piggy back off the alternate one?

  38. puff, the magic dragon. @ #186 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 7:36 pm

    We made the New York Times.
    Thanks fkng weasel treasonous skidmark on Australia Malcolm bloody Turnbull…
    How Australia Bungled Its $36 Billion Highspeed Internet Roll It.
    read it and weep for what might have been.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/11/world/australia/australia-slow-internet-broadband.html?ribbon-ad-idx=6&rref=world/australia&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Australia&pgtype=article

    Economic sabotage.

  39. Puffy
    Long before there was the liar in chief in the US, there were the liars here in Oz.
    Abbott calling Turnbull the inventor of the internet was just one or a reflection of his stupidity, which Turnbull didn’t dispute, ever.
    Duplicitous sods.

  43. Sky and Ch 7 may have contracted independently with Reachtel to conduct polling. I was expecting the Ch 7/Reachtel poll as they have done that several times previously.

    The timing of the two polls may have differed. According to the Sky News article, their poll was done yesterday afternoon i.e. before the Shorten speech. Perhaps the Ch 7 poll occurred at night and may have included reaction to the Shorten speech from some respondents. If so, Shorten secured a 1% increase in the 2PP.

  44. Puffy:

    I linked to that NYTimes piece this morning. I felt it didn’t go hard enough on the coalition govt for its role in the bungling.

  45. I wonder how much the NBN fiasco is now dragging Malcolm down. As the NBN ramps up, it is really starting to hit a lot of people in a core area of their lives, and they are not happy. Surely it, alone, is enough to cost the Libs the election.

  46. Confessions
    They would not have known the other was running one and Reachtel would hardly halve the amount of money they would earn by informing the one that asked second.

  48. citizen @ #193 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 7:52 pm

    Sky and Ch 7 may have contracted independently with Reachtel to conduct polling. I was expecting the Ch 7/Reachtel poll as they have done that several times previously.
    The timing of the two polls may have differed. According to the Sky News article, their poll was done yesterday afternoon i.e. before the Shorten speech. Perhaps the Ch 7 poll occurred at night and may have included reaction to the Shorten speech from some respondents. If so, Shorten secured a 1% increase in the 2PP.

    Rex will not allow such an interpretation 😐

  50. Antonbruckner11

    Good point, the faster it rolls out the faster grows the number of people finding out they have been sold a pup.

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