ReachTEL: 53-47 and 54-46 to Labor

Disappointing results for the government from the first two voting intention measures after the budget, despite strong support for the bank and Medicare levies.

Sky News reports the first post-budget poll, from ReachTEL, has Labor leading 53-47. After exclusion of the 10.6% undecided, the primary vote results are Liberal 34.2%, Nationals 3.8%, Labor 34.1%, One Nation 11.0% and Greens 10.9%. Nonetheless, the bank levy appears to have gone down well, recording 39.8% strong support, 22.3% support, 22% neutral, 8.3% oppose, 7.9% strongly oppose, and the Medicare levy appears to have been well received as tax hikes go, with 48.2% in favour and 34.1% opposed. Nonetheless, 51.6% rated that the budget would make them worse off, 10.8% better off, and 37.6% about the same. I believe the poll was conducted last night; can’t help you with sample size at this point (UPDATE: correct on the first count, 2300 on the latter).

UPDATE: It seems a second, completely different ReachTEL poll was commissioned by Seven News and conducted on the same evening, and this one had Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. However, no primary votes are provided, which is significant because a closer look at the numbers from the Sky News poll suggests the two-party result reflects a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to Labor – applying flows from last year’s federal election, the result would be 51.5-48.5. The Seven poll had similar supplementary questions and got similar answers: the bank levy recorded 60% approval and 18% disapproval, the Medicare increase 51% approval and 28% disapproval, but the budget overall was rated good or very good by only 29%, poor or very poor by 33%, and average by the rest. No sample size to relate at this point.

UPDATE 2: Here’s the regular weekly BludgerTrack update, which incorporates only the latest Essential Research results and not these two from ReachTEL.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,058 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 and 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 22
1 2 3 4 … 22

  1. Ten per cent of voters think that this budget will make them better off. Ten per cent. So much for Malcolm plunging towards the centre!. I think heaps of voters have stopped listening to Malcolm because he’s bullshitted them too too many times. Too many dodgy schemes that don’t stack up or don’t get implemented. And then you throw in Sco-Mo. Hah.

  2. Malcolm obviously didn’t read ‘Brer Rabbit’ as a child – he keeps throwing Bill Shorten into briar patches.

  3. Vogon Poet

    “It showed the government’s primary vote remains alarmingly low,

    I prefer “It showed the government’s primary vote remains comfortingly low, “

  4. Sorry if I’m not understanding this levy. Isn’t it being applied to profits?

    It’s not a profits tax, it’s a tax on bank funding – bonds and the like.

  5. I agree with Keating that Shorten has jumped the shark re his medicare levy stance.

    The levy should remain at a single rate, whatever rate that may be.

  8. Friday, May 12, 2017 at 5:50 pm
    I get 51.5-48.5 applying 2016 election preferences to these primary votes.

    Another poll where respondent allocated favours the ALP?

  11. aqualung @ #95 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 5:22 pm

    Sorry if I’m not understanding this levy. Isn’t it being applied to profits? Where does taxing a tax come into it.
    The Westpac bloke was the one who said the levy was (tax) deductible.

    So is it to be applied before or after tax? I don’t know. Maybe Grimace can contribute, but you can’t have it both ways.
    If applied before tax then it reduces the profit on which tax is paid.
    If paid after tax then it is paid on (profit – tax).
    Take your pick.

  13. This is only the third respondent-allocated preferences results I’ve seen since the election, the other two being Ipsos. The first showed no difference, the second was one point more favourable to Labor.

  14. I think we should remember Billy’s word of caution on Reachtel – 50/50 for Libs at the last WA election (and we know how that ended)

  15. Vogon Poet
    Friday, May 12, 2017 at 5:22 pm
    “It showed the government’s primary vote remains alarmingly low, suggesting voters have either not absorbed the Coalition’s more people-friendly approach taken under Mr Turnbull’s leadership, or simply do not believe it will benefit them.”
    Kenny clearly failed to even consider a third option, that the average punter has stopped listening, or just won’t swallow any more lies.

    If Kenny brought up the third option, he would be effectively admitting that people took little notice of the stuff he writes. That would do his ego (and his income) no good.

  16. In the past ReachTEL has often released a breakdown of the so-called undecideds, from which one can include them and calculate a 2PP rather than just excluding them. Hopefully we’ll get that later here. Typically what ReachTEL calls “undecided” are leaners one way or the other who other polls include up front, and what other polls call “undecided” and exclude are also excluded by ReachTEL (but not called anything). However it’s been a while so things may have changed.

  19. GhostWhoVotes‏ @GhostWhoVotes 50s51 seconds ago
    More
    #ReachTEL Poll (Channel 7) Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 ALP 54 #auspol

  21. **I think we should remember Billy’s word of caution on Reachtel**
    It’s all about the vibe (until Newspoll).

    Reachtels final 2016 election campaign poll had Coalition at 51-49 (both respondent and prev election allocated prefs). And whilst there was a late herding by Essential at this time, Reachtell was unchanged from the week before.

  23. Too many surgeons are performing operations that are likely to do more harm than good, a leading orthopaedic surgeon says.

    About half of orthopaedic surgical procedures have no scientific evidence from randomised trials proving they work better than non-operative treatment, Ian Harris told a meeting of 1900 surgeons this week.

    Research showed another 25 per cent are no better than non-surgical alternatives, he said. Yet many of these are still being performed.

    Professor Harris, of the University of NSW, said ineffective and potentially harmful operations included knee arthroscopy for arthritis, some forms of spinal surgery for low back pain, Achilles tendon repairs, some shoulder arthroscopic procedures, and wrist and ankle fracture fixations.
    …
    He said research had also shown clinicians often overestimated the benefits of their work and underestimated the harm of it. One Australian study of more than 300 patients and their surgeons following joint replacements found the doctors were more satisfied with the results than their patients.

    “Surgeons think the operation is great,” he said. “The actual satisfaction rate for total knee replacement across the board is about 80 per cent, so there is a 20 per cent dissatisfaction rate.”

    Professor Harris told his peers to be more sceptical of new technology and devices, saying a 2011 study of new hip and knee replacements introduced over five years found none of them were superior to the old ones, and 30 per cent were worse.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/health/many-operations-more-harmful-than-beneficial-top-surgeon-warns-20170512-gw3pbc.html

  27. The Sky News ReachTEL poll released on Friday afternoon surveyed 2300 people on Thursday evening. It showed the government’s primary vote remains alarmingly low, suggesting voters have either not absorbed the Coalition’s more people-friendly approach taken under Mr Turnbull’s leadership, or simply do not believe it will benefit them.

    According to Barrie ‘Coalition Butt Kisser’ Cassidy today, the effects of the ‘masterful’ policy onslaught from Turnbull & Co., starting with Snowy 2.0 and on through Security Eleventy.0 and on to Conski 1.0, will only start to be reflected in the polls, not immediately after the Budget, like in this Reachtel or the subsequent Newspoll. It will be a slow burn that the ‘masterful’ tactician, Don Trumble, will have calculated to get him up and over and onwards to victory at the next election, around August/September next year.

    I’m amazed that Barrie has such an outstanding pair of crystal balls. I always thought he had none.

  29. Did Kenny the ways that this government is more people friendly ? Tudge smiles before he screws over people with the Robodebt Killbot ? The Census rabblehad cute kitten posters on the wall ?

  32. Reachtel certainly spreading themselves around.

    It’s a bit odd when they do polls for different paying customers covering, effectively, the same polling questions at the same time and get different results. I assume they must partition their responses – the first X thousand are Sky News’s respondents, the next Y thousand are Channel Seven’s respondents …

    Doesn’t quite seem the right spirit for any outfit actually trying their best to answer the question of what level of support is there for the various parties…

  34. There may be two Reachtel polls – after all, Reachtel seems to be a fairly cheap gun for hire. Ch 7 has done a number of Thursday night Reachtel polls for announcement in the 6pm Friday news.

  37. chloe shorten‏ @chloeshorten 8h8 hours ago
    More
    Happy Birthday darling. Sorry my $20 necklace caused such trouble! #Alexpix

  40. Sohar: I’ll believe the correct 2PP for a ReachTEL being reported upfront by any outlet again when I see it! Also 54 seems much too high off the Sky News primaries.

  42. You would have thought that attacking Shorten is futile for the MSM and the Libs but they just dont get it.

  44. I think people have realised, why go for the pale imitation in survival mode, when you can have the real thing?

  46. Reachtel sort of told and asked people about what was in the Budget and it made no difference to their voting intention at all.Another reboot/reset/startover again?????

  47. Turnbull will be all right, Monica, he’s got Bandt, DiNatale, Whish-Wilson, Hanson-Young and the rest of the Greens firmly in his corner and supporting his every thought bubble.

  48. cupidstunt
    There is much the MSM and the Libs. don’t get, it would seem.
    Newspoll will be interesting.

  49. William Bowe
    Friday, May 12, 2017 at 5:57 pm
    This is only the third respondent-allocated preferences results I’ve seen since the election, the other two being Ipsos. The first showed no difference, the second was one point more favourable to Labor.

    There was also a Reachtel Getup poll. And a few federal state polls.

Comments Page 3 of 22
1 2 3 4 … 22

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *