ReachTEL: 53-47 and 54-46 to Labor

Disappointing results for the government from the first two voting intention measures after the budget, despite strong support for the bank and Medicare levies.

Sky News reports the first post-budget poll, from ReachTEL, has Labor leading 53-47. After exclusion of the 10.6% undecided, the primary vote results are Liberal 34.2%, Nationals 3.8%, Labor 34.1%, One Nation 11.0% and Greens 10.9%. Nonetheless, the bank levy appears to have gone down well, recording 39.8% strong support, 22.3% support, 22% neutral, 8.3% oppose, 7.9% strongly oppose, and the Medicare levy appears to have been well received as tax hikes go, with 48.2% in favour and 34.1% opposed. Nonetheless, 51.6% rated that the budget would make them worse off, 10.8% better off, and 37.6% about the same. I believe the poll was conducted last night; can’t help you with sample size at this point (UPDATE: correct on the first count, 2300 on the latter).

UPDATE: It seems a second, completely different ReachTEL poll was commissioned by Seven News and conducted on the same evening, and this one had Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46. However, no primary votes are provided, which is significant because a closer look at the numbers from the Sky News poll suggests the two-party result reflects a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to Labor – applying flows from last year’s federal election, the result would be 51.5-48.5. The Seven poll had similar supplementary questions and got similar answers: the bank levy recorded 60% approval and 18% disapproval, the Medicare increase 51% approval and 28% disapproval, but the budget overall was rated good or very good by only 29%, poor or very poor by 33%, and average by the rest. No sample size to relate at this point.

UPDATE 2: Here’s the regular weekly BludgerTrack update, which incorporates only the latest Essential Research results and not these two from ReachTEL.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,058 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 and 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 22
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  1. Well, if Shakespeare was allowed to invent words and phrases, the Donald can do it too! And retrospectively – he’s got the best time machine you know.

  2. Bemused
    **The power cabling to the node could have been undergrounded from a nearby pole.**
    The hip bone connected to the thigh bone….
    There would be new conduit attached to the side of the pole. None exists.

  3. Greensborough Growler Friday, May 12, 2017 at 4:13 pm
    phoenixRED @ #42 Friday, May 12th, 2017 – 4:04 pm

    How long before we learn he invented the internet too?

    ********************************************
    Well he may GG – but as we ALL know – the internet was invented by Malcolm Brian Turnball …….

  4. Newspoll will probably be worse for the LNP

    With the Commonwealth Banks Ian Narev calling it a budget for managing polling rather than the economy. That economic better manager line is getting hit hard.

  5. Regarding the real NBN. Its all passive (no electricity) between your house and the exchange. The FDHs (Fibre Distribution Hubs) are unpowered patch panels. A battery at the house end is to power the electronics inside the fibre modem. Its a few hours worth.

    Now with the temporary fake NBN the Nodes are powered from the nearest source of electricity. They usually have some battery backup but its a few hours at most. Some have minimal backup (network functions) only.

    The fibre cable running from the exchange to the node is simply 12 fibres.There is no point distributing power along it and if you tried it would get heavy and expensive.

    If you have FTTN the Node will supply power to the modem in your house but it may shut this down progressively. And if you have a cordless phone, it will need its own backup regardless and independent of any power from the Node.

  6. phoenixRED @ #54 Friday, May 12th, 2017 – 4:17 pm

    Greensborough Growler Friday, May 12, 2017 at 4:13 pm
    phoenixRED @ #42 Friday, May 12th, 2017 – 4:04 pm

    How long before we learn he invented the internet too?

    ********************************************
    Well he may GG – but as we ALL know – the internet was invented by Malcolm Brian Turnball …….

    Lock him up!

  7. When trust flies the coup, getting it back is impossible. You can promise the world but if people don’t believe you, you are done.

  8. Greensborough Growler Friday, May 12, 2017 at 4:20 pm

    phoenixRED @ #54 Friday, May 12th, 2017 – 4:17 pm

    “Greensborough Growler Friday, May 12, 2017 at 4:13 pm
    phoenixRED @ #42 Friday, May 12th, 2017 – 4:04 pm”

    “How long before we learn he invented the internet too?”

    “********************************************
    Well he may GG – but as we ALL know – the internet was invented by Malcolm Brian Turnball …….”

    Lock him up!

    **************************************
    Put Donald and Malcolm in the same cell – with a mirror – and let them beat themselves to death fighting for position ……

  9. phoenixRED @ #59 Friday, May 12th, 2017 – 4:23 pm

    Greensborough Growler Friday, May 12, 2017 at 4:20 pm

    phoenixRED @ #54 Friday, May 12th, 2017 – 4:17 pm

    “Greensborough Growler Friday, May 12, 2017 at 4:13 pm
    phoenixRED @ #42 Friday, May 12th, 2017 – 4:04 pm”

    “How long before we learn he invented the internet too?”

    “********************************************
    Well he may GG – but as we ALL know – the internet was invented by Malcolm Brian Turnball …….”

    Lock him up!

    **************************************
    Put Donald and Malcolm in the same cell – with a mirror – and let them beat themselves to death fighting for position ……

    Perhaps installing it on the ceiling would be the best location for that pair.

  10. Ides Of March – I had a look at the Press Gallery membership after my last comment, and I agree that the people you mentioned are good. Paul Bongiorno is also good. It is a shame they are outnumbered by the likes of Peter Hartcher, Chris Kenny, Philip Coorey, Malcolm Farr, Greg Jenson, Sabra Lane etc

  11. On the radio news today, Morrison was condemning the Labor plan to limit the tax deduction on paying someone to handle your tax affairs to $3,000.

    Apparently this is totally unfair for those who opt to engage in a big legal fight with the tax office.

    Morrison is obviously thinking of all those average wage earners who, under Labor, would not to be able to afford a good QC to fight the tax office over a disputed $100 deduction.

    It’s nice to think he has the interests of ordinary taxpayers in mind, and I’m sure he wasn’t thinking at all about the billionaires.

  12. jimmydoyle @ #14 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:26 pm

    Bemused (from previous thread) – it requires a coordinated strategy from federal, state and/or local governments to make battery recycling easier. People are pretty good about recycling, as long as you don’t make it an ordeal.

    Legislation would be a good start.
    Make anyone who sells batteries take back the used batteries.
    Forbid their disposal in household garbage. Yes, not going to be 100% successful, but it will influence many. Councils already advise there are certain things that are unacceptable so have them include batteries.

  13. Greensborough Growler Friday, May 12, 2017 at 4:27 pm
    phoenixRED @ #59 Friday, May 12th, 2017 – 4:23 pm

    Perhaps installing it on the ceiling would be the best location for that pair

    *********************************************
    Did you see Malcolm fawning over his 5 minute meeting with Donald ????? – you could see his ass licking and almost hear him pissing his pants with excitement

    Malcolm : advice for sycophants – if you don’t know where to put your tongue ……suggestion: Try behind your teeth. With your mouth shut.”

  14. Greg Jennett, not Jenson.

    Also, can’t believe I forget to mention James Massola! He’s on my shit list too.

    When was the last time you heard any of those “journalists” analyse policy?

  15. JD

    Paul Bongiorno is good.
    Hartcher is better on foreign affairs.
    Kenny seems to just push an article out every day without much consideration.
    No real problem with Farr. Dont always agree but decent journalist.
    Probyn is okay.
    Lane is meh.
    Jensen is meh.

  16. barney in go dau @ #26 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:42 pm

    zoomster @ #13 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:25 pm

    The Menzies House analysis (cough) of the Liberals’ gender problem is interesting as an pointer to the problems the Liberals have confronting issues across the board.
    …long may the Liberals cling stubbornly to these beliefs. The day when they realise that consultation means talking to more than a few of your mates around the table, reinforcing your prejudices and that the party needs to have a long hard look at why it is failing to attract women to join it, let alone vote for it, is the day when they will start rebuilding.

    Thanks Zoom,
    To fix a problem first you must recognise you have a problem.
    Long may they remain blissfully ignorant.

  17. Tge metal collector takes my old car batterries to recycle. Inassume he gets a few bucks for each.

  18. JD

    James Masola is crap.
    Chris Uhlmann is hopelessly partisan. During the regional leaders debate during the election, he spent 40% of the time bagging the Richard di Natale, 30% bagging Craig Fitzgibbon, 10% bagging Barnaby Joyce and 20% asking questions.

  19. barney in go dau @ #26 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:42 pm

    zoomster @ #13 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:25 pm

    The Menzies House analysis (cough) of the Liberals’ gender problem is interesting as an pointer to the problems the Liberals have confronting issues across the board.
    …long may the Liberals cling stubbornly to these beliefs. The day when they realise that consultation means talking to more than a few of your mates around the table, reinforcing your prejudices and that the party needs to have a long hard look at why it is failing to attract women to join it, let alone vote for it, is the day when they will start rebuilding.

    Thanks Zoom,
    To fix a problem first you must recognise you have a problem.
    Long may they remain blissfully ignorant.

    Maybe it is in part the type of women they attract?

  20. bemused @ #73 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 4:42 pm

    barney in go dau @ #26 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:42 pm

    zoomster @ #13 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:25 pm

    The Menzies House analysis (cough) of the Liberals’ gender problem is interesting as an pointer to the problems the Liberals have confronting issues across the board.
    …long may the Liberals cling stubbornly to these beliefs. The day when they realise that consultation means talking to more than a few of your mates around the table, reinforcing your prejudices and that the party needs to have a long hard look at why it is failing to attract women to join it, let alone vote for it, is the day when they will start rebuilding.

    Thanks Zoom,
    To fix a problem first you must recognise you have a problem.
    Long may they remain blissfully ignorant.

    Maybe it is in part the type of women they attract?

    Are they any less offensive than the men?

  21. William Bowe
    Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:19 pm

    This is their first poll since the election. ReachTEL came up with a 50-50 result during the WA campaign, so I’d hesitate to take this to the bank, so to speak.

    Wow. That was a large Lib lean. : )

  22. bemused

    Well, their own reasoning is that educated women don’t vote for the Liberal party, so one assumes that educated women don’t join it.

  23. There are two kickers in the most recent proposal for yet anothet troop surge in Afghanistan.
    The first is to delegate troop levels to the Pentagon.
    The second is to seek matching rises from the Allies.
    As if other nations would accept the notion that the Pentagon would de facto set their troop levels.
    Turnbull, weak, will increase Australia’s committment.

  24. aqualung @ #33 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 3:48 pm

    Grimace re tax deductibility of taxes/levies. Thanks for the response.
    Not going to pretend I understand why taxes are tax deductible but if they are then so be it.

    I look at it the other way and wonder why you would think taxes paid would still be taxable?

  25. The Sky News ReachTEL poll released on Friday afternoon surveyed 2300 people on Thursday evening. It showed the government’s primary vote remains alarmingly low, suggesting voters have either not absorbed the Coalition’s more people-friendly approach taken under Mr Turnbull’s leadership, or simply do not believe it will benefit them.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fabled-bounce-fails-to-materialise-after-bigspending-budget-20170512-gw3mwx.html

  26. The Libs have spent the last 40 years knocking the very idea of socially-funded and delivered services. No one trusts their change of line. Why should anyone believe tbem now!

  27. simon aussie katich @ #52 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 4:16 pm

    Bemused
    **The power cabling to the node could have been undergrounded from a nearby pole.**
    The hip bone connected to the thigh bone….
    There would be new conduit attached to the side of the pole. None exists.

    OK, so you already thought of that one. Must come from somewhere.

  28. Briefly – and also, why would people choose the knock-off imitation over the real thing i.e. the Labor Party?

  29. Re: Stick a fork in him, he’s done:

    I first heard a variant of this in Lou Reed’s 1989 song ‘Last Great American Whale’:

    It’s a lot like what my painter friend Donald said to me
    “Stick a fork in their ass and turn them over, they’re done”

    His ‘painter friend Donald’ was actually John Mellencamp, according to an interview I remember reading. I imagine its a fairly old rural US expression.

  30. Ides of March – Uhlmann must have some redeeming quality considering he’s married to Gai Brodtmann, but he’s obviously elected not to display it in public.

  31. Is it illegal to open one of these Nodes? I really would like to know if it has battery backup.

    I wonder if locals could take community ownership over Nodes and increase the battery backup size. It also may be the only way to ensure they get replaced regularly.

    Open Source Nodes Now! Peoples Liberation of Nodes Front

  32. simon aussie katich @ #88 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 5:13 pm

    Is it illegal to open one of these Nodes? I really would like to know if it has battery backup.
    I wonder if locals could take community ownership over Nodes and increase the battery backup size. It also may be the only way to ensure they get replaced regularly.
    Open Source Nodes Now! Peoples Liberation of Nodes Front

    It will be locked. Does that answer your question?
    Wait a while and you will see someone working on it and you can take a peek over their shoulder and maybe ask a few questions.

  33. Bemused – it would be pretty simple to convince big chains like Coles and Woolies, as well as Kmart and Big W to provide battery recycling. That would suit a lot of people.

  34. Senate fight looms over Medicare hike
    ROSIE LEWIS
    Key crossbenchers warn of the levy increase’s impact on low-income earners, which may spell trouble for the PM.

  35. jimmydoyle @ #90 Friday, May 12, 2017 at 5:15 pm

    Bemused – it would be pretty simple to convince big chains like Coles and Woolies, as well as Kmart and Big W to provide battery recycling. That would suit a lot of people.

    You would think so. I am left wondering why it wasn’t done long ago like Europe has.

  36. MrMoney, Friday, May 12, 2017 at 5:02 pm
    I think Kenny should read what he wrote this morning.

    Supposedly hemmed in by a “Labor-lite” budget featuring some of his best ideas, Bill Shorten was meant to be a leader under pressure.

    “Supposedly” is the point here. The Canberra press gang have been so desperate for Turnbull 2.0 they got ahead of themselves.

    The hard right commentators, not smitten by 2.0 wankery, were right. Shorten led the debate and the budget effectively endorsed his position. To think it “boxed Shorten in” was a CPG fantasy that ignored the removal of the deficit levy and the (now) $65billion company tax cut. Not to mention that economic policy has drifted so far to the right that Shorten has miles of “moderate” room to manoeuvre.

  37. Sorry if I’m not understanding this levy. Isn’t it being applied to profits? Where does taxing a tax come into it.
    The Westpac bloke was the one who said the levy was (tax) deductible.

  38. Reading this, I think we can put two and two together as to why the measure was buried.

    Buried in an obscure nook of the budget was a humane and overdue measure, a good news story so pure it’s puzzling the government didn’t promote it beyond a passing mention in Treasurer Scott Morrison’s budget speech.

    …The men’s rights movement is one of the brightest stars in One Nation’s constellation of support, right up there with the Polaris of the anti-vaxxers and the Sirius of the anti-Halal brigade.

    The men’s rights activists (MRAs) form a disparate but vocal coalition with strong lobbying power – along with the One Nation connection, they have close links to the LNP’s George Christensen and the former Family First party, which is now integrated into the Australian Conservatives, headed by Cory Bernardi.

    Bernardi was condemned in February for tweeting a link to an article by a prominent American MRA, Daryush Valizadeh, known for proclaiming that rape should be legalised on private property (he later claimed he was being “satirical”).

    The precise influence of MRAs over the government is difficult to gauge, but given its strong links to the crossbench, and the crossbench’s elevated importance in the current parliament, its agenda could easily become a part of any deals cut.

    And when you dig a little into the fact-free wonderland of the MRAs, where women are both witches who abandon their families, and little bitches who moan when they’re punished for it, that prospect is terrifying.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/you-cant-tell-me-women-dont-lie-of-course-they-do-why-mens-rights-activists-hate-avos-20170512-gw3chb.html

  39. “It showed the government’s primary vote remains alarmingly low, suggesting voters have either not absorbed the Coalition’s more people-friendly approach taken under Mr Turnbull’s leadership, or simply do not believe it will benefit them.”
    Kenny clearly failed to even consider a third option, that the average punter has stopped listening, or just won’t swallow any more lies.

  40. The hard right commentators, not smitten by 2.0 wankery, were right. Shorten led the debate and the budget effectively endorsed his position. To think it “boxed Shorten in” was a CPG fantasy that ignored the removal of the deficit levy and the (now) $65billion company tax cut. Not to mention that economic policy has drifted so far to the right that Shorten has miles of “moderate” room to manoeuvre.

    It was a ridiculous idea. Rather than being boxed in Bill occupied the ground ceded to him and moved onto the next battleground.

    Debt and Deficit? Used to Liberal strong ground, but now ceded so Shorten attacks from there saying you can’t give up deficit levies and business tax cuts whilst you’re running a deficit.

    Tax and Spend? Used to be Liberal strong ground, now ceded so Shorten attacks saying you are taxing the 99% too much and still not spending in the right areas. Thanks for the Bank tax and the Medicare hike (but only for the rich) and whilst you’re endorsing high tax and spending here’s some smarter taxes and better spending.

    It’s like Brian Trumble fancies himself as a veritable uzT nuS.

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