Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

This week’s Essential Research offers results on Tony Abbott and 457 visas, along with yet another boring set of voting intention numbers.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average maintains its recent habit of shifting between 53-47 and 54-46, the latest instalment going from the latter to the former. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 37% and Labor is down one to 36%, with the Greens and One Nation steady at 10% and 8%, so that the result is in all respects identical to the week before last. The poll also finds 40% think Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, 17% that he should stay on the back bench, and another 17% that he should be given a position in the ministry. This is worse for him than when the same questions were posed in August last year, when the respective results were 37%, 21% and 25%. Other findings relate to the tightening of 457 visas: 16% said they went too far, 28% not far enough, and 39% that they were about right; 59% approved of allowing visa holders to apply for permanent residency, against 23% disapprove; 78% agreed that those applying for permanent residency should first be put on a probationary visa, against only 10% for disagree.

The Australian also had extra questions from Newspoll, which found that 70% favoured the government prioritising spending cuts over 20% for increasing taxes, but that only 30% favoured cuts to welfare payments with 61% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. I think that Stephen Long just said that the Gallilee Basin is larger than the UK. That’s a bloody lot of coal, and guess who owns it: Gina, Andrew, Clive…

  2. PR
    Before this goes any further I want to know whether you are white, off colour or… whatever.
    I like conflicts of interest to be declared up front.

  3. Has Melanchonly Baby finally woken up and urged his followers to turn out and vote AGAINST Le Pen?

    Or is he doing the Sanders/Di Natale thing?

  4. Matt Canavan is the perfect embodiment of the argument for why we should never let religious zealots near our political apparatus.

  5. boerwar @ #602 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 5:17 pm

    BIDG
    Someone should investigate the AFP.

    This from the Guardian.

    But Colvin said the breach should not shake the public’s confidence in the metadata retention laws. He said the powers were crucial to law enforcement.

    “I have been on the record many times saying that it is extremely rare that we are interested in a journalist’s metadata but it’s not rare that we use metadata on nearly all of our investigations,” he said. “It is a very common tool we use.”

    The commonwealth ombudsman will now audit the breach.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/28/federal-police-admit-accessing-journalists-metadata-without-a-warrant

  6. Boerwar Friday, April 28, 2017 at 5:21 pm
    PR
    Before this goes any further I want to know whether you are white, off colour or… whatever.
    I like conflicts of interest to be declared up front.

    **************************************
    No worries Boerwar – Scottish by birth, Aussie, by having a Dad who as a fighter pilot served with an Australian squadron – and emigrated here as a result – but am an Australian citizen by my choice – although I do have a US Green Card ….. so am a bit of a Heinz 57 varieties…. and still white

    Whatever YOU are – white, brown, ………Roswell saucer alien – if you live in Australia, then you have a RIGHT to express your voice – within the usual legal requirements of responsible speech ….. I for one will listen to whatever you have to say ….

  7. Lizzie

    Well he did say…….

    “However, Resources Minister Matt Canavan said “We’re lucky that God has given us very high-quality coal, and we should make it available to the rest of the world to provide power, to help other economies create economic growth,”

  8. BIDG
    Well, someone should investigate the Ombudsman, then.
    We must reach the end of the accountability shuffle sooner or later.

  9. Bigly Idiotter and pusillanimous Trump toady. That’s our Malcolm!

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/28/critical-perspectives-on-the-us-alliance-are-unthinkable-in-australian-politics

    Mike Pence visited Australia during the week of Anzac Day. Our leaders did their best to affirm that 100 years after thousands of Australians were fed into the slaughterhouse of the first world war, Australia’s leaders are still comfortable with running a client state, on the periphery of an empire, and following their sponsor into whatever misadventures it might have in mind.

    It’s not just conservatives tugging the forelock. Indeed, Labor’s behaviour is the best evidence that the Trump presidency will not change the status quo ante. Whatever the misgivings of observers like Paul Keating, Australia’s leaders will happily and completely subordinate themselves to US hegemony.

  10. PR
    One of my uncles was in the Dutch Underground, Black Market subsection.
    Buried with full military honours, too.
    My view is that having had rellies involved in war gives no-one any special standing at all.
    As for your quaint, ancient and passed-its-use-by notion that everyone in Australia has an equal right to free speech…

  11. BK
    They mention that the leak was from within the AFP. That they came out with a confession of a “crime” nobody would know about makes me wonder why. That the journo has not been told suggests that the investigation is still going on.

  12. **it is extremely rare that we are interested in a journalist’s metadata**
    Extremely coincidental then that on one of those rare occasions they fail to follow the rules.

    Break the rules first, spin the breach if found out.

  13. I’m not quite sure why people think that the AFP would/should tell the journalist in question.

    If they had properly obtained a warrant the journalist would never have been told, and no one else is informed that their metadata has been accessed without a warrant.

    I think in this case it would only be if the ombudsman found some deliberate abuse of process that was done with malicious intent that there would be further disclosure.

  14. Boerwar Friday, April 28, 2017 at 5:37 pm
    PR
    One of my uncles was in the Dutch Underground, Black Market subsection.
    Buried with full military honours, too.
    My view is that having had rellies involved in war gives no-one any special standing at all.
    As for your quaint, ancient and passed-its-use-by notion that everyone in Australia has an equal right to free speech…

    **********************************************
    Boerwar – I live in a world that has long passed – the life expectancy and the IQ of the average Australian have passed each other going in the opposite direction. I don’t watch gogglebox or MKR or think the United Patriots front represent the majority of Australians ….. or think that Trump or Turnbull as worth a pinch of shit as politicians ….. so I understand your view of the diminished rights we have as Australians …… but its the world we live in …… sadly

  15. The journalist in question is a victim of a crime perpetrated by the police.

    I can understand why the police would prefer not to inform the victim of their crime.

    But still…

    quis custodia…

  16. Poroti **That the journo has not been told suggests that the investigation is still going on.**
    So they fess up as the breach would have become apparent in an imminent prosecution? Sheesh. What are the chances of a full audit on all occasions the AFP have accessed journos metadata? Buckleys, none and sweet FA

  17. I have just emailed this to Westpac.
    “As a shareholder in WBC I am delighted in your decision to not fund the Adani coal project. Not only is it prudent and in shareholders’ best interests it is the socially correct thing to do. Thank you.”

  18. bemused Friday, April 28, 2017 at 5:39 pm
    phoenixred @ #599 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 5:15 pm
    Keating was on Jon Faine’s program on ABC Melbourne this morning. It should appear on the ABC website if it hasn’t already. Said much the same but always sounds better than it reads.

    *****************************************
    Thanks Bemused – I DID hear Keating on Jon Faine this morning with the same message but my security would not download his podcast, hence me just posting the article – maybe you or someone can post a link to the Keating/Faine interview ?????

  19. BK
    After some encouraging early signs, Westpac were starting to fall behind the other banks in the corporate social responsibility caper.

  20. boerwar @ #630 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 5:42 pm

    BIGD
    Nobody is perfect in quite the same way that doG is perfect.
    That stands to reason.

    But if doG’s perfect then everything doG creates should be perfect.

    We see flaws in doG’s creation.

    This implies that doG is not perfect,
    or
    doG does not exist and the creation story is bullsh!t.

  21. BW –

    The journalist in question is a victim of a crime perpetrated by the police.

    Yeah, no.

    The AFP committed an offense in not following the legislated requirements for obtaining the information, but that doesn’t make the journalist a victim.

    Again, if the person in question were not a journalist then the exact same behaviour by the AFP would not have been an offense, and no one would be a ‘victim’. And if the AFP had followed the proper procedure in all likelihood they would have obtained their secret warrant and everything would have carried on as before with no one being the wiser and the journalist certainly neither being aware nor a ‘victim’.

    And besides, the AFP in general are going after the leakers not the journalists. If anyone is, or ever was, going to be a victim it would be the whistleblower/leaker, not the journalist.

    The AFP and other agencies do need to be kept in check. We do need to stop going down this never-ending road of surrendering privacy and control of our information to the various arms of government. Whistleblowers need to be properly protected, and this whole idea that leaks need to be chased down and suppressed is just wrong-headed.

    But let’s not get carried away with what appears to have happened in this case.

  22. simon aussie katich @ #637 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 5:50 pm

    Poroti **That the journo has not been told suggests that the investigation is still going on.**
    So they fess up as the breach would have become apparent in an imminent prosecution? Sheesh. What are the chances of a full audit on all occasions the AFP have accessed journos metadata? Buckleys, none and sweet FA

    Yes, the investigation is ongoing.

    More from the Guardian article.

    The officer had not been disciplined or suspended, Colvin said. “I don’t believe there was ill will or bad intent here,” he said.

    “Clearly we will do some more work to understand exactly what occurred. I don’t want to foreshadow where that might end, but I think the system’s failed the investigator as much as the investigator failed in their obligations to know the law.”

    He said the accessed metadata had been destroyed but conceded the investigator could not “unsee it”.

    The can not “unsee it” quote suggests the investigator will use the information they remember to direct their inquiries.

    If this is the case shouldn’t a new investigator be appointed to continue the investigation from the moment before the breach occurred?

  23. So, that’s cool.

    Every journalist in Australia will now be wondering whether they are the subject of a tainted investigation.

  24. *Sigh*
    It’s not just conservatives tugging the forelock. Indeed, Labor’s behaviour is the best evidence that the Trump presidency will not change the status quo ante. Whatever the misgivings of observers like Paul Keating, Australia’s leaders will happily and completely subordinate themselves to US hegemony.

    Only Pegasus could swing in with a quote that is Anti Labor but posits Paul Keating as some ‘other’ for the purpose of the contrast desired by the writer of the article, in order to reinforce The Greens’ reflexive Anti Labor stance.

    Sorry, but Keating IS Labor down to his bootstraps and he HAS misgivings about US hegemony and Trump. So there goes that little Anti Labor diss. Falls apart upon the flimsiest of scrutiny.

  25. One for BK

    Former Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella is suing a regional Victorian newspaper over an article she says defamed her during the 2016 federal election. Ms Mirabella is suing weekly newspaper The Benalla Ensign and its editor Libby Price in the Victoria County Court over an April 2016 article about an encounter with Indi member Cathy McGowan.

    Ms Mirabella, who lost the seat to Ms McGowan in 2013, says the article is defamatory because it said “Mirabella had physically pushed Cathy Magowan (sic) out of the way of a photograph for her own political reasons”, according to a writ filed on April 19.

    The writ also describes Ms Mirabella as a well known public figure whose 2013 election loss and 2016 candidacy attracted increased media coverage. Her defeat and attempt to win back the seat of Indi were “matters which attracted local and national media coverage beyond which would ordinarily be expected for a sitting or prospective Member of Parliament”. Ms Mirabella alleges the The Benalla Ensign and Ms Price, a former ABC journalist, did not make adequate inquiries about the story, and failed to contact her or other witnesses who were present at the event being described. The newspaper “instead relied solely on the unsubstantiated account of one or more persons the defendant knew to be active supporters of McGowan”. Ms Mirabella alleges the newspaper knew the pushing allegations would be damaging to her reputation and election campaign, but they published the “unsubstantiated” story anyway.

    “It is to be inferred that they did so with the intention of unjustifiably and improperly hurting Mirabella’s political campaign”, the statement of claim says. The former Indi member says a day after the article was published on April 20, 2016, her office confirmed to other media outlets no physical contact had taken place.

    But the newspaper only acknowledged their “mistake” and withdrew the allegations in October 2016, well after the federal election, Ms Mirabella says in her writ. The matter will go to court at a date to be fixed.

  26. phoenixred @ #639 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 5:50 pm

    bemused Friday, April 28, 2017 at 5:39 pm
    phoenixred @ #599 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 5:15 pm
    Keating was on Jon Faine’s program on ABC Melbourne this morning. It should appear on the ABC website if it hasn’t already. Said much the same but always sounds better than it reads.
    *****************************************
    Thanks Bemused – I DID hear Keating on Jon Faine this morning with the same message but my security would not download his podcast, hence me just posting the article – maybe you or someone can post a link to the Keating/Faine interview ?????

    Here you go… 23 minutes of it.
    http://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/programs/mornings/keating-on-faine/8479596

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