Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

This week’s Essential Research offers results on Tony Abbott and 457 visas, along with yet another boring set of voting intention numbers.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average maintains its recent habit of shifting between 53-47 and 54-46, the latest instalment going from the latter to the former. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 37% and Labor is down one to 36%, with the Greens and One Nation steady at 10% and 8%, so that the result is in all respects identical to the week before last. The poll also finds 40% think Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, 17% that he should stay on the back bench, and another 17% that he should be given a position in the ministry. This is worse for him than when the same questions were posed in August last year, when the respective results were 37%, 21% and 25%. Other findings relate to the tightening of 457 visas: 16% said they went too far, 28% not far enough, and 39% that they were about right; 59% approved of allowing visa holders to apply for permanent residency, against 23% disapprove; 78% agreed that those applying for permanent residency should first be put on a probationary visa, against only 10% for disagree.

The Australian also had extra questions from Newspoll, which found that 70% favoured the government prioritising spending cuts over 20% for increasing taxes, but that only 30% favoured cuts to welfare payments with 61% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Dave – It’s interesting to see how many of them have, like Hunt, have simply disappeared / gone to ground.

    Morrison’s fun to watch. His thing the other day on publishing ‘portfolio financial statements’ is aimed at his fellow senior ministers i.e. see who is spending all the money. It’s an indication that he’s getting a caning in the Expenditure Review Committee. Turnbull must be saying ‘Yes’ to lots of stuff.

  2. CTar – its all underpinned by a belief they can BS their way around anything, maintain their warped ideology and not do any serious policy work.

    The following was written over 100 years ago by Deakin and is still right on the money even today –

    ….the forces of conservatism were: “a party less easy to describe or define, because, as a rule it has no positive programme of its own, adopting instead an attitude of denial and negation.

    This mixed body, which may fairly be termed the party of anti-liberalism, justifies its existence, not by proposing its own solution of problems, but by politically blocking all proposals of a progressive character, and putting the brakes on those it cannot block.”

  3. AFP officer accessed journalist’s call records in metadata breach

    An investigator with the Australian Federal Police (AFP) sought and acquired the call records of a journalist without a warrant, Commissioner Andrew Colvin says.

    The journalist whose metadata was at the centre of the breach has not been informed, Commissioner Colvin added.

    “We haven’t notified the journalist that we have breached and accessed that particular journalist’s data without the warrant.”

    More to come.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-28/afp-officer-accessed-journalists-call-records-in-metadata-breach/8480804

  4. PhRed, I found it interesting that only 66 people were watching the presser on AFPs twitter feed. it is a shocker of an admission.

  5. Australia warned it needs to start thinking about defending itself from ballistic missile attack

    An Australian Defence Force (ADF) document compiled just two months ago argues the military needs to better understand ballistic-missile defence, amid the growing threat posed by North Korea.

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has told radio station 3AW the Government is taking the threat posed by North Korea “very, very seriously”.

    Asked whether Australia was prepared for a possible North Korean missile attack, Mr Turnbull explained the country had “extensive arrangements with our allies, in particular the United States”, but did not deploy a missile-defence system.

    “Obviously as threats evolve, our response to them would evolve,” Mr Turnbull said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-28/defence-paper-calls-australian-understanding-ballistic-missiles/8480338

  6. Poroti –

    It could be written today without changing a word.

    Its sort of scary in a way.

    No seeing the light.

    No wanting to improve society and bring all people along with them.

    Just self entitled and obnoxious, continual negativity and tearing things down.

    But it all fits the likes of abbott, scrott et al.

  7. Don’t know who the centre-right in Australia is these days. Maybe Xenophon and some of our independents. The “Liberal” party is firmly on the right of centre economically and, for the most oart socially.

    As for “free markets”, no one believes in them, least of all big business. They want a sort of corporate plutocracy.

  8. “Sometime during the 1990s the centre-right stopped making the argument for the free market,” says John Roskam, who heads up the Institute of Public Affairs, a free market think tank based in Melbourne. “The centre-right was winning the economic debate until the global financial crisis (GFC) and in the mind of the public that argument has been lost.”

    The historical evidence is that laissez-faire policies invariably result in crisis. It is with this in mind that most of the regulatory structures of the 20th century were created. The ideological position is that crisis is a) not possible in a market-based system, or b) if crisis occurs then it is because of regulation. The inference is that regulation is doomed to fail. This is pure nonsense. We see recurring examples of market failure – failure that can be redressed by regulation. The dysfunction in the gas market is one example of this.

    We can also see the inherent tensions inside the LNP with respect to energy markets, their regulation and state intervention. In the case of the Galilee basin, the State wishes to ignore the markets and act as financier for a favourite. In the case of the gas market, they would prefer to ignore the workings of the market, again to protect the interests of their favourites.

    This illustrates that for the LNP, the question is not whether to regulate, but who to favour by regulation. They invariably choose on political grounds. This is a misuse of power. They deserve to be deprived of power until they learn how to use it wisely. Without any doubt, this will be done at the next election.

  9. Simon Aussie Katich Friday, April 28, 2017 at 4:04 pm

    PhRed, I found it interesting that only 66 people were watching the presser on AFPs twitter feed. it is a shocker of an admission.

    *************************************************

    VPNs Become Even More Important As ISPs Start Collecting Customer Metadata

    As of Friday last week, Australian internet service providers (ISPs) and telecommunications companies are officially required to collect “metadata” about their customers’ communications. According to the legislation, this data includes:
    •name, address, date of birth, email addresses and other identifying information of the person that holds an account
    •details of any communication, including: ◦the mode of communication (voice, sms, email, chat, forum, social media)
    ◦the location of the person at the start and end of the communication
    ◦the address and details of the receiver of the communication
    ◦the network used for the communication (ADSL, Wi-Fi, VoIP, cable, etc).

    This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

    Read more at https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2017/04/vpns-become-even-more-important-as-isps-start-collecting-customer-metadata/#dtkvvG2c3GHIx4Vm.99

  10. PhRED

    An investigator with the Australian Federal Police (AFP) sought and acquired the call records of a journalist without a warrant, Commissioner Andrew Colvin says.

    No wonder the story says ‘More to come’ because the real question is which telecommunications provider gave the copper the data without a warrant.

  11. briefly @ #562 Friday, April 28th, 2017 – 4:12 pm

    “Sometime during the 1990s the centre-right stopped making the argument for the free market,” says John Roskam, who heads up the Institute of Public Affairs, a free market think tank based in Melbourne. “The centre-right was winning the economic debate until the global financial crisis (GFC) and in the mind of the public that argument has been lost.”

    The historical evidence is that laissez-faire policies invariably result in crisis. It is with this in mind that most of the regulatory structures of the 20th century were created. The ideological position is that crisis is a) not possible in a market-based system, or b) if crisis occurs then it is because of regulation. The inference is that regulation is doomed to fail. This is pure nonsense. We see recurring examples of market failure – failure that can be redressed by regulation. The dysfunction in the gas market is one example of this.

    We can also see the inherent tensions inside the LNP with respect to energy markets, their regulation and state intervention. In the case of the Galilee basin, the State wishes to ignore the markets and act as financier for a favourite. In the case of the gas market, they would prefer to ignore the workings of the market, again to protect the interests of their favourites.

    This illustrates that for the LNP, the question is not whether to regulate, but who to favour by regulation. They invariably choose on political grounds. This is a misuse of power. They deserve to be deprived of power until they learn how to use it wisely. Without any doubt, this will be done at the next election.

    It happened when Howard and Costello started pissing the benefits of the Mining Boom on the wall. Things like tax cuts, welfare expansion and gaming Capital Gains Tax benefits.

  12. Poroti

    Menzies plan after he made a few changes and settled in to government was to change absolutely nothing unless he was forced to.

    Tones he would have considered an annoyance because of his very active spouting of all the things he didn’t ‘like’.

  13. phoenixred @ #558 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 4:07 pm

    Australia warned it needs to start thinking about defending itself from ballistic missile attack
    An Australian Defence Force (ADF) document compiled just two months ago argues the military needs to better understand ballistic-missile defence, amid the growing threat posed by North Korea.
    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has told radio station 3AW the Government is taking the threat posed by North Korea “very, very seriously”.
    Asked whether Australia was prepared for a possible North Korean missile attack, Mr Turnbull explained the country had “extensive arrangements with our allies, in particular the United States”, but did not deploy a missile-defence system.
    “Obviously as threats evolve, our response to them would evolve,” Mr Turnbull said.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-28/defence-paper-calls-australian-understanding-ballistic-missiles/8480338

    Will Turnbull respond bigly?

  14. Phillip Coorey‏Verified account
    @PhillipCoorey

    Why are the coppers chasing leaks to journos, this was supposed to be about national security, terror plots etc. @AFPCommissioner

  15. CTar1 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 4:15 pm
    PhRED
    “An investigator with the Australian Federal Police (AFP) sought and acquired the call records of a journalist without a warrant, Commissioner Andrew Colvin says.”

    No wonder the story says ‘More to come’ because the real question is which telecommunications provider gave the copper the data without a warrant.

    ******************************************

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/police-illegally-obtained-journalists-phone-records-under-new-metadata-retention-regime-20170428-gvutjx.html

  16. lizzie @ #573 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 4:27 pm

    Phillip Coorey‏Verified account
    @PhillipCoorey
    Why are the coppers chasing leaks to journos, this was supposed to be about national security, terror plots etc. @AFPCommissioner

    ……………………………………

    It shouldn’t effect Coorey – most of the stuff he writes comes via the tories –

    Drip, Drip……

    As long as he is a ‘good’ boy.

  17. From the Guardian:
    Naturally the LNP would never dream of interfering with commercial decisions made by Australian Corporations; so I have to assume Canavan is no longer a member of the LNP.

  18. because the real question is which telecommunications provider gave the copper the data without a warrant.

    Not really. The ISPs are obliged to hand over metadata on request to the AFP and others without a warrant in basically all cases. Journalists have a special exemption (remember the special secret process for a judge to issue a secret warrant to access journalist metadata?), but (as far as I can see) it couldn’t be the responsibility of the ISPs – they aren’t in a position to keep lists of who is officially a journalist etc, and it would defeat the point of the special secret warrant provisions.

    The AFP itself is the entity that needs to determine whether a warrant is needed before going to the ISP, and clearly they failed in this case. I’m surprised it has become public knowledge; perhaps the AFP has a shred more integrity than I had given them credit for.

  19. Bevan Shields‏Verified account
    @BevanShields

    AFP disclosed the leak to the ombudsman TWO DAYS AGO. Only tells public on Friday afternoon….

  20. Briefly
    is a morsel, a petit four. It is intended to prompt the appetite

    I always get a giggle out of ‘amuse-bouche’ – aka tickle your pie hole.

    btw – I’ve just started using ExpressVPN – with no worries or noticeable slowing, of already slow, although this may depend of the choice of route for ‘connecting’, and you have a choice.

  21. Dutton is now totally and utterly exposed on his vile and vicious attempt to smear the Manus refugees with the paedophile tag.
    The interesting thing is that the Murdoch newspaper are totally and completely silent on the topic.
    In other circumstances we would be talking Omerta.
    Still, QT cannot be far off.

  22. Jackol

    perhaps the AFP has a shred more integrity than I had given them credit for.

    Or a) They got in before it got out, suspecting that it has been leaked, b) A “Look how honest and diligent we are with your metada no need to fear Big Brother” charade for the peasants. .

  23. What Turnbull was trying to say was that he has just realized that when you cock a snoot at a nuclear armed country and it threatens to vaporize your harbourside mansion, Australia has no defence.
    Turnbull has managed to insert Australia between Trump and Kim.
    Turnbull is idiotter than you would think.

  24. Boerwar

    Your Gas discount coupon has been mailed to your address. It will be arriving just after Abbott’s electricity/carbon tax $550 discount coupon.

  25. Boerwar
    “One of my fave emperors, Hadrian.”

    Hadrian was an anti-Semitic paedophile.
    Apart from that, a thoroughly decent bloke.

  26. K
    I am not sure that the concept of paedophilia applied in those days.
    As for being anti-semitic, if the Jews wanted to refuse to worship Hadrian as a god, that was their lookout.

  27. BK
    My birth certificate, issued in a colony, thoughtfully ticks ‘white’ in the appropriate box.
    So I can say what I like, right?

  28. Boerwar Friday, April 28, 2017 at 5:04 pm

    What Turnbull was trying to say was that he has just realized that when you cock a snoot at a nuclear armed country and it threatens to vaporize your harbourside mansion, Australia has no defence.
    Turnbull has managed to insert Australia between Trump and Kim.
    Turnbull is idiotter than you would think.

    **********************************************

    Paul Keating says Australia’s sycophancy to US damaging its own interests

    Former Labor prime minister says there should be greater independence within alliance and South China Sea ‘is not our fight’

    Australia’s “client state” obsequiousness towards the US was damaging its own interests and ignoring the rise of China as the nascent “primary economic state of the world”, Paul Keating has argued.

    Speaking at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, the former Labor prime minister said the alliance with the US did not mandate slavish devotion to American demands “as the Uriah Heeps of this world” – a reference to Dickens’ fulsome character from David Copperfield.

    “The alliance, if we had no document anymore, we would remain friends with the United States into the future. We’ve been in every battle [alongside the US] since the first world war. We’ve got a whole lot of cultural and historical common ground but this idea [exists] that we, as a sort of client state, have to shape up all the time or ship out – a view that is pretty much ingrained these days in Canberra – we have to get along with them otherwise they’ll shoo us away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/26/paul-keating-says-australias-sycophancy-to-us-damaging-its-own-interests

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