Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

As Labor picks up a point, Essential Research finds Nick Xenophon, Derryn Hinch and Jacqui Lambie to be more popular than Pauline Hanson, David Leyonhjelm and Cory Bernardi.

Labor picks up a point in this week’s reading of Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average, which did not allow the Easter long weekend to interrupt its schedule. The major parties exchange a point on the primary vote, with Labor up to 37% and the Coalition down to 36%, while the Greens and One Nation hold steady at 10% and 8% respectively.

Also included are approving ratings for cross-benchers Senators, which I like to think they asked because I suggested it to them a few weeks ago, and it’s turned up the finding I was fishing for when I did: namely, that Jacqui Lambie, at 32% approval and 30% disapproval, is more popular than the overrated Pauline Hanson, at 32% and 48%. Still less popular are David Leyonhjelm, with 9% approval, 28% disapproval and a forbiddingly high “don’t know about them”, and Cory Bernardi, whose respective numbers are 10%, 34% and 41% (“not sure” accounts for the balance). At the top of the charts is Nick Xenophon, at 35% approval and 25% disapproval, followed by Derryn Hinch at 35% and 27%.

The poll also records 38% support for allowing superannuation to be accessible when buying a home, with 50% opposed, and has a suite of questions on the American intervention in Syria: 41% approve of last week’s bombing with 36% opposed; 37% say they would support US ground troops being sent, with 39% opposed; and 31% saying they would approve of an Australian contribution, with 50% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,057 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. Unsurprising:

    A senior PNG police officer has disputed Immigration Minister Peter Dutton’s claim that concerns about the welfare of a local boy led PNG soldiers to storm the Manus Island detention centre.

    Mr Dutton alleged the violent incident – which left one asylum seeker injured on Good Friday – began after three asylum seekers were spotted leading a five-year-old boy into the camp.

    The immigration minister suggested Manus Island residents were worried that the boy had been sexually assaulted.

    But local police commander Inspector David Yapu has rejected the claims, telling ABC News Mr Dutton was referring to an unrelated incident which involved no allegation of sexual assault.

    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/04/21/png-police-dismiss-duttons-explanation-manus-island-unrest

    If only it were illegal for ministers to blatantly lie to the electorate for political gain and demonize people who don’t even have legal standing to defend themselves. But no…legislation like that would never pass Parliament.

  3. Continuing select the type of female candidates they do.

    Or rather the female candidates who select themselves for candititure.

  5. I think one of the reasons the Libs cannot get their female numbers up (apart from those stated by others above) is that their philosophy doesn’t REALLY align with innate nurturing female values. I’m not saying men don’t have those values, but for women, the nurturing generally comes first before other innate considerations. The egalitarian nature of left wing leaning philosophies are by definition more nurturing for a greater number of people in society.

  7. poroti @ #954 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 10:53 am

    A day to remember.

    UK to run without coal power for a full working day, in historic first since industrial revolution

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-coal-power-national-grid-energy-control-room-no-energy-without-industrial-revolution-a7694896.html

    Australia could end up being the last developed country in the world to give up burning coal. So much for “agile and innovative”!

  8. john reidy @ #947 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 10:07 am

    Oakes’ article is good.
    I can’t see any point in appointing Abbott to a cabinet position.
    Apart from doubt he would be a good minister, does anyone think he would respect cabinet solidarity?

    Abbott still yearns for his precious. At the moment he is outside the tent pissing in. I have no doubt that he would still be pissing in the tent even if he were inside it. It’s just that he would be able to use journalist’s protection of sources to hide his urethra.

  9. Marching for Science.

    … “science and democracy share a crucial heritage. Though prefigured in many ways in the classical world, they each began to flourish in the early modern period in the 16th and 17th centuries. Among the many ideas that were mixed together to create these impressive structures was that of fallibilism: the simple conviction that we can always be wrong”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/04/marching-for-the-right-to-be-wrong/523842/?utm_source=nl-atlantic-daily-042117

    One of my fav books somewhere in the stacks is called “In Defence of Doubt”. It highlights that the only was to progress is to be uncertain and to question. (Which is the essence of science.) To be certain on the other hand is to be trapped in the past. It is the hallmark of fundamentalism, pre-enlightenment is its darkness, and rooted in fear.

    It all sounds terribly obvious. But we are ruled by the very walking talking manifestations of this backward mind set.

  11. bemused

    Pressure was put on preselectors in Higgins to select O’Dwyer; even Sophie Mirabella (who once described ‘feminist’ as an insult) accused the branch members of misogyny —

    ‘The Liberal preselection battle for Peter Costello’s blue-ribbon seat of Higgins has turned nasty, with claims that a sexist campaign has been waged against the woman expected to succeed the former treasurer.’

    ‘…If Ms O’Dwyer wins on Thursday, she will make history as the first woman ever preselected by the Liberal Party for a safe seat in metropolitan Melbourne…’

    ‘…Ms Mirabella told The Age some preselectors had been told Higgins was “not a seat for a woman because it’s a leadership seat”, and that questions had been raised about whether Ms O’Dwyer’s marriage would last if she won a federal seat.

    “This sort of attack purely on gender is an insult to every woman in the Liberal Party,” Ms Mirabella said.’

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/sexism-claims-in-race-for-costellos-seat-20090914-fnvb.html

  12. jenauthor

    Reminds me of Germaine Greer’s observation in ‘The Female Eunuch’ – when explaining why the crime rate amongst males drops after a certain age, sociologists say it’s because the men have matured; when explaining why women don’t commit crimes at the same rate as men, it’s because they’re infantile.

    Greer seemed to be suggesting that perhaps the female crime rate was lower for the same reason it was amongst men of a certain age – that is, that women are more mature.

    Many of the Coalition women do seem to be stuck in the fifteen year old schoolgirl mentality…

  13. itzadream @ #959 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 11:09 am

    Marching for Science.
    … “science and democracy share a crucial heritage. Though prefigured in many ways in the classical world, they each began to flourish in the early modern period in the 16th and 17th centuries. Among the many ideas that were mixed together to create these impressive structures was that of fallibilism: the simple conviction that we can always be wrong”
    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/04/marching-for-the-right-to-be-wrong/523842/?utm_source=nl-atlantic-daily-042117
    One of my fav books somewhere in the stacks is called “In Defence of Doubt”. It highlights that the only was to progress is to be uncertain and to question. (Which is the essence of science.) To be certain on the other hand is to be trapped in the past. It is the hallmark of fundamentalism, pre-enlightenment is its darkness, and rooted in fear.
    It all sounds terribly obvious. But we are ruled by the very walking talking manifestations of this backward mind set.

    You would probably enjoy this brief article by Umberto Eco published in the SMH back in 2004.
    http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/08/22/1093113050921.html
    I have posted it a number of times on PB as it is a favourite of mine.

  14. I always enjoy Murphy’s imagery.

    Abbott is also being nurtured psychologically and enabled practically by the rightwing Sydney shock jocks, Alan Jones and Ray Hadley – who act as an external, unelected caucus within the government, shoving the most powerful people in the country in and out of dungeons on a whim.

    Hadley, evidently bored with toying with his house pet of choice, Scott Morrison, has tossed the treasurer and slotted in Abbott.

    Jones and Andrew Bolt take turns on Sky News elevating Abbott’s experience to the status of Greek tragedy, because the contemporary reactionary right, the self-styled outsiders, have nothing to talk about if they are not being victimised by someone – the thought police, mouthy women, smug progressives, uppity foreigners, the ABC, the human rights commission, Malcolm Turnbull, secret communist.

    Nurturing Abbott’s sense of grievance fits the default faux outsider narrative. Blessed are we, the downtrodden. On with the noble crusade.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/22/duelling-prime-ministers-turnbull-and-abbott-locked-in-a-coalition-death-spiral

  16. Zoomster

    I think I’m right in saying that Greer will be on QandA on Monday night. I’m sure some bludgers are looking forward to tearing her apart.

  17. zoomster @ #961 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 11:19 am

    bemused
    Pressure was put on preselectors in Higgins to select O’Dwyer; even Sophie Mirabella (who once described ‘feminist’ as an insult) accused the branch members of misogyny —
    ‘The Liberal preselection battle for Peter Costello’s blue-ribbon seat of Higgins has turned nasty, with claims that a sexist campaign has been waged against the woman expected to succeed the former treasurer.’
    ‘…If Ms O’Dwyer wins on Thursday, she will make history as the first woman ever preselected by the Liberal Party for a safe seat in metropolitan Melbourne…’
    ‘…Ms Mirabella told The Age some preselectors had been told Higgins was “not a seat for a woman because it’s a leadership seat”, and that questions had been raised about whether Ms O’Dwyer’s marriage would last if she won a federal seat.
    “This sort of attack purely on gender is an insult to every woman in the Liberal Party,” Ms Mirabella said.’
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/sexism-claims-in-race-for-costellos-seat-20090914-fnvb.html

    Oh, I had overlooked the lovely Sophie too. 😀
    Well, O’Dwyer did make it and now the talk is of Peta Credlin challenging her.
    I think O’Dwyer is much overrated but that has nothing to do with her being a woman. I thought the same of her predecessor.
    She seems pleasant enough in an air-headed sort of way, but certainly no towering intellect.

  18. confessions @ #933 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 9:28 am

    Ides:
    As PvO points out, women aren’t preselected for safe coalition seats, therefore making it near impossible for more women to be elected into parliament.

    I only partly agree there. Achieving a quota of women by preselecting them mostly to safe seats deprives them of legitimacy in parliamentary parties. To achieve genuine cultural change, and to give women to have legitimacy in the party they need to be preselected for winnable marginal seats, be properly and genuinely supported in doing the heavy lifting required to win those seats.

  20. I completely agree that women need to be preselected to half of safe seats.

    The last thing we need in parliament is more retarded monkey’s with ideological axes to grind that are far removed from the general views of the electorate and whose seats are declared fifteen minutes after polls close, however our system is what it is and as we must have them, half of those retarded monkeys should be female.

  21. Ah memories…

    Once upon a time, the state government-owned electricity, water and rail utilities trained tens of thousands of apprentices, many of whom, on completing their training, went off to work in the private sector. The privatisation of those services had a catastrophic, and entirely predictable, effect on Australia’s labour market.

    …the most pernicious element of Malcolm Turnbull’s announcement this week is the idea that 457 visa holders face tougher conditions for permanent residency. Making it harder for skilled workers to stay in the country for more than four years will do nothing to increase job opportunities for Australian workers. But by creating a class of “guest workers” with reduced access to services and support, and who have no chance to put down roots here, we will create a caste system within the Australian labour market. Talk about “unAustralian” values.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/australias-fake-crisis-of-high-wages-20170421-gvpj8w.html

  22. bemused

    The significant line in that article is that O’Dwyer is the only Liberal woman to be preselected for a safe metro seat.

    So there is something preventing women in the Liberal party being preselected to safe seats – either there are no competent candidates putting themselves forward, or when they do, they are unsuccessful.

  23. Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden · 38m38 minutes ago

    AKA: grubby morons in Liberal Party think good time to canvass rolling female minister is 8 days after giving birth.

  24. J
    As demonstrated by their routine default positions, and as demonstrated by their actions, the Coalition despise women, refugees, the poor, people of colour, people whose first language is not english, the unemployed, the sick, the unemployed, the underemployed, all non-Anglo foreigners, the mentally ill, nature, and young people.
    What they admire most is rich white Anglos.
    End of story.
    With 760,000 unemployed and 1.1 million underemployed Coalition MPs instruction du jour is to publicly vilify ‘job snobs’.
    Job snobs are page one of the Weekend Australian.

  25. Grimace

    The old saying is that we’ll know equality has been achieved when mediocre women have the same opportunities as mediocre men!

  26. Greer, like a lot of older women (I know quite a few), become less patient/tolerant and become more infantile (if we use Zoom’s reference) as they age.

    I suspect this is why a lot of older women (over 65/70) vote for the Libs. They become less nurture-minded and more ‘security-minded’.

  28. Grimace:

    If the Liberals are going to get anywhere near their target of 50% women in the partyroom by 2025 they are going to have to ensure more women are preselected in winnable seats, safe and marginal. As PvO pointed out their record even in the 20 months of Turnbull’s leadership is woeful.

  29. I despise O’Dwyer on party lines but if Maiden’s tweet is correct I am really disgusted

    They probably justify it on grounds they are trying to replace her with a woman, so that makes it okay.

  30. barney in go dau @ #943 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 9:54 am

    confessions @ #936 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 9:31 am

    Barney:
    But if the coalition aren’t prepared to preselect women candidates for safe seats, it makes it even harder to increase their party’s female representation. His laying out of all those who have come into parliament since Turnbull has been leader being men is a perfect illustration of this.

    But where is the quality?
    Labor seem to have no problem attracting women of quality, while the Libs are yet to achieve this.
    Continuing select the type of female candidates they do, does nothing for diversity and adds nothing to their Party.

    I’ve spent my entire career in male dominated workplaces, in my current job there are a couple of thousand employees and outside of finance, administration and HR, you can count the amount of women employed on one hand.

    To change culture in any organisation takes determined effort from the top over years. Take one look at the current L/NP parliamentary and administrative leadership, take stock of their public statements on the role of women, and you can work out for yourself how likely they are to initiate the process of genuine cultural change.

  32. bemused @ #944 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 9:54 am

    zoidlord @ #899 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 7:27 am

    @bemused,
    Which pretty much the same for a lot of public transport in NSW… Redfern is one, usually up to 5 minutes lates, no Disabled access, no elevator, lots of people in peak hour traffic.

    Yes, it seems all Australian cities have under-invested in public transport over many decades. But I would argue Melbourne in worse than Sydney in that respect. I am not familiar with other capitals so can’t offer any opinion.

    I’ve lived in 4 states. At least in areas where there are trams and trains I found Melbourne’s public transport to be the best in Australia. I have no experience of buses in Melbourne. Melbourne could talk to Perth about their SmartRider with a view to substantially improving Myki though.

  33. Written in 2014. I’d say TA is unlikely to leave Parl while his ‘basic needs’ are being met.

    A common refrain from Tony Abbott and his band of miserly men is that the taxpayer is footing the bill for all those “leaners” and that people should take more personal responsibility for themselves. User pays seems to be the pervading Coalition strategy in most areas – education, health, fuel excise, road tolls, GST.

    It is somewhat ironic that Tony Abbott is leading this spin considering how much he has been given.

    https://theaimn.com/nothing-free-depends/

  34. I’m barely alive. My mental health is shattered.

    I just took my son out into Saturday morning traffic for the first time, for an hour long driving lesson. 😉

  35. The Liberals are obviously very comfortable with patriarchy. This is reflected in their attitude to women generally as well as in their approaches to issues of sexuality, hierarchy, privilege, order and authority. It is also forcibly expressed on matters of race, culture and nationality.

    This naturally reflects in their plainly sexist allocation of political power.

  37. Briefly:

    The Liberals and Nationals trash talk quota systems for achieving gender equality, but apparently the Nats are quite happy to embrace quotas when it comes to front bench allocation to ensure Nats representation.

  39. Speaking about The Lolstralian’s topic du jour today, that being ‘job snobs’, can I just call bullshit on it?

    My son, who is long-term unemployed, through no want of trying, has been hoping his (Private) Job Provider could provide him with a job, any job, so he could start earning. He’s done his learning, he trained in an area of expansion in the job market. So what’s the problem you may ask?

    Where we live.

    On the Central Coast of NSW, now that the federal government and NSW Coalition State governments have defenestrated TAFE and Public job training opportunities, as mentioned above, a giant pool of unemployed and underemployed young people has been created. Do you think they care? Of course they don’t because it creates pressure on those who are employed to accept any wages and any conditions, or else they’ll be sacked and someone who does want to work for that pay, and those conditions, will willingly take their place, because up here a job, any job, is better than the stultifying boredom of joblessness.

    Also, if you don’t take a job, any job, which is offered to you then your Youth Allowance or Newstart Benefit is cut off immediately, for a minimum of 6 weeks.

    So there’s no ‘Job Snob’ about it.

    The Australian has gone into the Fake News business. But I guess you knew that already.

  41. Confessions
    Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 12:13 pm
    Briefly:

    They should also that Mia Davies, the Nationals leader, is without any doubt the best MLA on the Tory benches.

  43. Briefly,
    Maternal obligation has to be unlimited, it’s too bleedin’ expensive to pay for 120 hours of driving lessons! 😀

  47. BK
    Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 12:31 pm
    cupidstunt @ #990 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 12:21 pm

    Turnbull doing his USA massive arselicking exercise now with Pence.

    These are Liberal values. They are shared with others yet are unique in and of themselves!

  49. Perhaps the truth is that Pence will be running the place whether or not he holds the office of President. Trump is sure running nothing much.

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