Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

As Labor picks up a point, Essential Research finds Nick Xenophon, Derryn Hinch and Jacqui Lambie to be more popular than Pauline Hanson, David Leyonhjelm and Cory Bernardi.

Labor picks up a point in this week’s reading of Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average, which did not allow the Easter long weekend to interrupt its schedule. The major parties exchange a point on the primary vote, with Labor up to 37% and the Coalition down to 36%, while the Greens and One Nation hold steady at 10% and 8% respectively.

Also included are approving ratings for cross-benchers Senators, which I like to think they asked because I suggested it to them a few weeks ago, and it’s turned up the finding I was fishing for when I did: namely, that Jacqui Lambie, at 32% approval and 30% disapproval, is more popular than the overrated Pauline Hanson, at 32% and 48%. Still less popular are David Leyonhjelm, with 9% approval, 28% disapproval and a forbiddingly high “don’t know about them”, and Cory Bernardi, whose respective numbers are 10%, 34% and 41% (“not sure” accounts for the balance). At the top of the charts is Nick Xenophon, at 35% approval and 25% disapproval, followed by Derryn Hinch at 35% and 27%.

The poll also records 38% support for allowing superannuation to be accessible when buying a home, with 50% opposed, and has a suite of questions on the American intervention in Syria: 41% approve of last week’s bombing with 36% opposed; 37% say they would support US ground troops being sent, with 39% opposed; and 31% saying they would approve of an Australian contribution, with 50% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,057 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Excuse my ignorancy but is O’bigmouth’s Higgins the only safe LNP seat to parachute Credlin into or is O’bigmouth the worst performer in a safe seat and the male incumbents are all stars?

  2. Unemployment and under-employment are the result of a policy choice:

    We know that the government is not just a ‘large household’. The latter is the user of the currency and must finance its spending beforehand, ex ante, whereas government, the issuer of the currency, necessarily must spend first (credit private bank accounts) before it can subsequently debit private accounts, should it so desire (raising taxes).

    Clearly, a fiat-currency issuing government is always solvent in terms of its own currency of issue.

    MMT also teaches us that the purpose of State Money (fiat currency) is to facilitate the movement of real goods and services from the non-government (largely private) sector to the government (public) domain.

    Government achieves this transfer by first levying a tax, which creates a notional demand for its currency of issue. To obtain funds needed to pay taxes and net save, non-government agents offer real goods and services for sale in exchange for the needed units of the currency. This includes, of-course, the offer of labour by the unemployed. The obvious conclusion is that unemployment occurs when net government spending is too low to accommodate the need to pay taxes and the desire to net save.

    This analysis also sets the limits on government spending. It is clear that government spending has to be sufficient to allow taxes to be paid. In addition, net government spending is required to meet the private desire to save.

    If the Government doesn’t spend enough to cover taxes and the non-government sector’s desire to save the manifestation of this deficiency will be unemployment. The basis of this deficiency is at all times inadequate net government spending, given the private spending (saving) decisions in force at any particular time.

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=35836

  3. HEAR YE HEAR YE

    THE SA CHAPTER KNEES UP IS ANNOUNCED.

    Saturday, 6 May 2017
    in Kapunda South Australia.

    If you have not received an email invitation by now, or would like one sent, please email my via
    tuckerboxdog @ hmamail dot com and I will add you to the invitation list.

    There may be an interstate visitor, but I will say no more in case they cannot make it.

    PuffyTMD

  4. “There may be an interstate visitor, but I will say no more in case they cannot make it.”

    Will Billbowe be skyping in to fulfill his role as patron saint?

  5. Bill Maher goes off on ‘whiny little b*tch’ Donald Trump for not accepting responsibility like a ‘real man’

    In his Friday episode of “Real Time,” host Bill Maher let loss when it comes to men like Bill O’Reilly and Donald Trump.

    Maher called Sean Hannity the new “big man” at Fox News. “For all of the troubles over there, Hannity has not been involved in a sex scandal. Unless you count the nightly blowjob he gives to President Trump.”

    Maher continued. “I mean, who is more of a little bitch than Donald Trump? He never takes responsibility for anything. That was the old way a man proved he was a man. Everything is: ‘I inherited a mess!’ Everything is somebody else’s fault.”

    Maher also showed the photo of Sarah Palin, Ted Nugent and Kid Rock visiting the White House. He called the group “the slow and the furious” which completes Trump’s “axis of redneck.” – this is them about to head out to the rose garden to shoot some varmints for lunch.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/bill-maher-goes-off-on-whiny-little-btch-donald-trump-for-not-accepting-responsibility-like-a-real-man/

  6. Louise Mensch Has A List Of Suspected Russian Agents

    The former British MP leads an outraged online investigation into Trump’s connection to Russia. Is it pulling in innocent people?

    Every day, Mensch and her network of online detectives unravel what they claim is a massive conspiracy linking the Kremlin, the Republican Party, armies of internet trolls, and moneyed puppet masters around the world.

    Mensch, who sometimes tweets hundreds of times a day, has claimed or implied that targets ranging from top government officials to journalists to teenagers to anonymous Twitter users are in thrall to Vladimir Putin.

    And one way to generate headlines and amass a following in a bitterly divided political climate — as Donald Trump has demonstrated — is to find someone to blame. Indeed, if her tweets are to be believed, the number of people Louise Mensch believes to be agents of Russian influence may exceed 210 astronomically

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/josephbernstein/menschs-list?utm_term=.togN0WZyq#.ooQ76NLon

  7. The claim that Abbott was in danger of losing Warringah at the time of the last election does not stack up. Supposedly, the alarm was raised by a poll that Abbott himself commissioned. This is dubious in itself. In any case, the next step in this unbelievable story is that Turnbull’s campaign intervention turned an imminent loss into an easy win. Doubtless, this is the claim that Abbott himself would have been hoping to make – that in spite of the swing against the Liberals in NSW, he was able to rescue his seat on the strength of his own magnificent on-the-ground campaigning in his very-tough-to-win, suddenly-marginal seat.

    The reality is that even Tony Abbott would be unable to lose Warringah. He may have wanted to portray himself as a winner-against-the-odds – to support his claims to be an electoral winner. As it turns out, this stunt has rebounded on both the treacherous Abbott and his nemesis, the entirely disingenuous Turnbull.

    To be absolutely sure, there is no way at all that last minute campaigning by either of them would have shifted 10-15% of the vote in a fortnight. Yet this is the looooodicrous claim they each would make. If anything, the robocalling by Turnbull would be as likely to lose votes as to attract them.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Warringah

  8. C@Tmomma
    Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 1:15 pm
    Mike Pence has all the presence and charisma of a cardboard box.

    The are his best qualities.

  9. PhoenixRED
    Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 1:22 pm
    Louise Mensch Has A List Of Suspected Russian Agents

    The former British MP leads an outraged online investigation into Trump’s connection to Russia. Is it pulling in innocent people?

    Every day, Mensch and her network of online detectives unravel what they claim is a massive conspiracy linking the Kremlin, the Republican Party, armies of internet trolls, and moneyed puppet masters around the world.

    …among whom we could include the scurrilous dtt, formerly of PB…

  10. grimace @ #982 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 11:58 am

    bemused @ #944 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 9:54 am

    zoidlord @ #899 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 7:27 am

    @bemused,
    Which pretty much the same for a lot of public transport in NSW… Redfern is one, usually up to 5 minutes lates, no Disabled access, no elevator, lots of people in peak hour traffic.

    Yes, it seems all Australian cities have under-invested in public transport over many decades. But I would argue Melbourne in worse than Sydney in that respect. I am not familiar with other capitals so can’t offer any opinion.

    I’ve lived in 4 states. At least in areas where there are trams and trains I found Melbourne’s public transport to be the best in Australia. I have no experience of buses in Melbourne. Melbourne could talk to Perth about their SmartRider with a view to substantially improving Myki though.

    I don’t have a personal grievance as I have the good fortune to live reasonably close to a station on probably the least congested line in the Melbourne system.
    It also has a bus hub so there are busses a plenty!
    I try to view it as a system and that is where it fails.
    The railway system is entirely radial with all lines converging on the CBD so those journeys are OK except for peak hours overcrowding.
    But non-radial journeys are a different matter. Not so bad in the inner suburbs where there is a reasonable tram network, but further out the only option is busses.
    The State Govt / PTV have partially addressed the problem with the 901, 902 and 903 ‘orbital’ bus routes which stick to main roads and are fairly direct.
    Other bus routes are fine if you are not going very far or time does not matter to you. They just wander around back streets all over the place.
    My thought on this is that it arises from trying to serve two needs. Cross suburban travel and local short distance trips. I don’t think it works very well.
    I see the need for the suburban rail system to break out of its current radial straight jacket to facilitate reasonably swift cross-suburban travel in a network such as is seen in many overseas cities. This is a very long term project, but the goal should be set and all future works planned consistent with the long term goal.

  11. VEEPs rarely get any real power.
    They might get some delegated power at the margins. Pence has been sent out to do jaw jaw while Trumpwreck does the bombing.
    BTW, I do hope that Trump does not get into his head to bomb Austria.

  12. The New York Times
    3 mins ·
    America’s doctor was fired by the Trump administration and replaced by a nurse.

    The Surgeon General position is now filled by a nurse.

  13. Confessions
    Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 1:59 pm
    The New York Times
    3 mins ·
    America’s doctor was fired by the Trump administration and replaced by a nurse.

    The Surgeon General position is now filled by a nurse.

    Could be worse….they could have chosen a homeopath or a faith healer.

  14. Pence

    “Rest assured, as I confirmed today with the Prime Minister, the United States of America will honour the agreement and actually we have initiated the process of fulfilling that agreement, subject to the vetting processes that now apply to all refugees in the United States.”

    I wonder how many refugees will pass the vetting process.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/us-will-honour-refugee-deal-with-australia-vice-president-mike-pence-confirms-20170422-gvq889.html

  15. From PvO’s column
    ‘There is a better than even chance that after the next election, scheduled for mid-2019, the number of women in the lower house for the Coalition will collapse to single digits. The chances of that rising to an even share with men two electoral cycles later is zero’.
    Surely the chance would be greater than 0, if suppose there are 9-10 female Liberal MPs but the party room is reduced to 20-30. 🙂

  16. With ANZAC day approaching, The Dam Busters is getting yet another run on TV now.
    Greatest air war movie ever made and arguably the greatest war movie ever.
    The Kiwis were going to do a remake but I doubt they will match the 1955 original, made when there were still plenty of Lancasters in an airworthy condition, plus other WWII aircraft.
    Just an incredible mission requiring extraordinary courage and suffering heavy losses. Truly heroic.

  17. PhoenixRed:

    David Miliband was on the panel too. Unsurprisingly he is not a fan of Jeremy Corbyn, and nor is Bill Maher who had some very unflattering things to say about him.

  18. john reidy @ #1021 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 2:22 pm

    From PvO’s column
    ‘There is a better than even chance that after the next election, scheduled for mid-2019, the number of women in the lower house for the Coalition will collapse to single digits. The chances of that rising to an even share with men two electoral cycles later is zero’.
    Surely the chance would be greater than 0, if suppose there are 9-10 female Liberal MPs but the party room is reduced to 20-30.

  19. bemused @ #1025 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 2:28 pm

    john reidy @ #1021 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 2:22 pm

    From PvO’s column
    ‘There is a better than even chance that after the next election, scheduled for mid-2019, the number of women in the lower house for the Coalition will collapse to single digits. The chances of that rising to an even share with men two electoral cycles later is zero’.
    Surely the chance would be greater than 0, if suppose there are 9-10 female Liberal MPs but the party room is reduced to 20-30.

    Damn! Truncated by an emoticon again.
    I usually spot them when they show up properly but some are just the outline of a rectangle and easily missed.

  20. It’s no wonder our health services are in a mess.
    This week I received an invoice for outpatients’ physiotherapy on 19 Aug 2016, on a Statement dated 7 Oct 2016. Can their accounts really be so far behind???

  21. IOM

    ‘If Labour, under Corbyn, actually managed to win the election, would some people here actually be happy at all? ‘

    Classic hypothetical question.

  22. I don’t think the test of a public transport system is whether it takes people everywhere they might possibly want to go. It would almost be impossible to design such a system, and it would almost inevitably be unnecessarily expensive.

    Most people living in the city want to go to the CBD, so it makes sense that that’s where most public transport should also be focussed.

    The number of people, for example, who want to travel from Box Hill to Eltham by public transport would be minuscule. Of course, if you did improve transport between those points, it would increase – but the question would be whether it increased enough to be worth the cost.

  23. lizzie @ #1030 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 3:15 pm

    Bemused
    You are very picky, aren’t you. It was rehab in my home and not part of the hospital.

    Well you are very snitsy indeed.
    You said it was ‘outpatients’ so how was I to deduce from that it was something outside a hospital?
    I was merely expressing surprise it it was a public hospital as I thought.
    You seem to dislike me saying anything in response to your posts. Get over yourself.

  24. IOM
    Save your breath.
    Get ready for another five years of May.
    Corbyn will, some time during the coming five years, dodder off in decrepitude leaving the Mother of All Messes behind him as the triumph of his life’s work.

  25. zoomster @ #1032 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 3:23 pm

    I don’t think the test of a public transport system is whether it takes people everywhere they might possibly want to go. It would almost be impossible to design such a system, and it would almost inevitably be unnecessarily expensive.
    Most people living in the city want to go to the CBD, so it makes sense that that’s where most public transport should also be focussed.
    The number of people, for example, who want to travel from Box Hill to Eltham by public transport would be minuscule. Of course, if you did improve transport between those points, it would increase – but the question would be whether it increased enough to be worth the cost.

    Classic straw-man argument.
    Have a look how Singapore’s rail network is laid out.
    Sure, you can’t go everywhere directly point to point, but there are lots of intersections of tracks at stations where you can change from one line to another readily. With only one or two such changes, you really can go pretty much from anywhere to anywhere.
    BTW, you can travel from Box Hill to Eltham but it takes either 2 bus routes or a bus and a train. Elapsed time between 47 and 55 minutes.
    The outer limits of suburbia in a very sprawling city will always be problematic.
    One really good thing PTV have done is make an app available on iPhone or Android. The Journey planning function is brilliant and has taught me ways of getting around I have never thought of. The Box Hill to Eltham information is from it.

  26. What dill arse world do the journos live in ? Over the last couple of weeks they have told us Truffles has “increased pressure” on Russia and then China, as if either of them would even notice let alone care FFS . Now hey presto they roll it again. The mighty Truffles again reminding Johnny Foreigner just who is in charge 🙂

    ‘The eyes of the world’: Turnbull ups the pressure on Beijing

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-ups-pressure-on-beijing-as-us-vicepresident-mike-pence-reaffirms-bond-20170422-gvq98s.html

  27. Ides:

    Well you can count me as happy if the Conservatives are tipped out, not that it is looking anywhere near even possible at this point.

  28. ‘BTW, you can travel from Box Hill to Eltham but it takes either 2 bus routes or a bus and a train. Elapsed time between 47 and 55 minutes…’

    Duh, yes, I know. Not the point.

    I didn’t choose the example at random.

  29. Britains Labour Party is about to be reduced to a size where they could hold their caucus in a phone booth.
    Tony Blairs New Britain is dead. Corbyn’s support at the far, far left of the rank and file stops exactly there. Middle Britain and a heap of ordinary labour voters will vote for May.
    It will be a vote in a generation.

  30. briefly @ #981 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 11:56 am

    Grimace
    Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 11:34 am
    confessions @ #933 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 9:28 am
    WA Labor pre-selected women for marginal-yet-winnable seats all over WA at the recent election, with excellent results.
    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/wa-election-2017-new-female-mps-set-wa-parliament-record/news-story/2ca9999629f51f476ec54fc95fd47118

    Thanks for posting that, I hadn’t seen it. Women being 15/41 in the LA and 7/14 in the LC shows good progress.

  31. zoomster @ #1042 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 3:54 pm

    ‘BTW, you can travel from Box Hill to Eltham but it takes either 2 bus routes or a bus and a train. Elapsed time between 47 and 55 minutes…’
    Duh, yes, I know. Not the point.
    I didn’t choose the example at random.

    It is an excellent example of cross suburban travel.
    It is something impossible by rail alone without very long diversions.
    Ideally, this would be possible by rail with busses used only for short local routes – feeders to the rail system.

  32. The SA Chapter Knees Up has two new acceptances, and one is from a newbie to the Chapter. Tehehe, are we going to have fun with him or what? Oops he might be reading this.

  33. c@tmomma @ #989 Saturday, April 22, 2017 at 12:19 pm

    Speaking about The Lolstralian’s topic du jour today, that being ‘job snobs’, can I just call bullshit on it?
    My son, who is long-term unemployed, through no want of trying, has been hoping his (Private) Job Provider could provide him with a job, any job, so he could start earning. He’s done his learning, he trained in an area of expansion in the job market. So what’s the problem you may ask?
    Where we live.
    On the Central Coast of NSW, now that the federal government and NSW Coalition State governments have defenestrated TAFE and Public job training opportunities, as mentioned above, a giant pool of unemployed and underemployed young people has been created. Do you think they care? Of course they don’t because it creates pressure on those who are employed to accept any wages and any conditions, or else they’ll be sacked and someone who does want to work for that pay, and those conditions, will willingly take their place, because up here a job, any job, is better than the stultifying boredom of joblessness.
    Also, if you don’t take a job, any job, which is offered to you then your Youth Allowance or Newstart Benefit is cut off immediately, for a minimum of 6 weeks.
    So there’s no ‘Job Snob’ about it.
    The Australian has gone into the Fake News business. But I guess you knew that already.

    I call bullshit on it too. Its the type of bullshit that is peddled by people like Turnbull and Porter who have never had a job in their lives which wasn’t in some way, shape or form facilitated by family, friends or the old boys network.

    They have zero experience of having to get a job via traditional means of responding to a job and then going through the interview process as a cold contact, so they have no idea what it is like to be on the receiving end of any combination of (WTTE):
    – No response to a job application
    – You are underqualified
    – You are overqualified
    – You lack sufficient experience
    – You have too much experience
    – Someone like you would not want this job
    – We’ve considered all the applicants and while your experience and qualifications are suitable, we don’t think you’d be a good fit for our organisation

    When you look at it from Turnbull and Porter’s world view and life experience anyone without a job either doesn’t want one, or is a job snob. Turnbull and Porter come from a world where all it takes is a few calls to family, friends and/or associates and your path to a job is facilitated via those same connections.

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