Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017

Detailed Newspoll breakdowns find older voters, regional areas and Western Australians turning particularly heavily against the Turnbull government.

If you’ll pardon me for being a day late with this one, The Australian has published the regular quarterly breakdowns of voting intention by state, age and gender (voting intention here, leadership ratings here), which suggest swings against the Coalition of 2% in South Australia, 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and just shy of 8% in Western Australia. The demographic breakdowns are interesting in showing particularly strong movement against the Coalition among the older age cohort (down 10% on the primary vote, compared with 7% overall) and those outside the capital cities (down 9%, compared with around half that in the capitals). The polling was drawn from all of Newspoll’s surveying through February and March, with an overall sample of 6943.

Late as usual, below is BludgerTrack updated with last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research. The state breakdowns in BludgerTrack are a little compromised at the moment in using a straight average of all polling since the election to determine each state’s deviation from the total, and is thus understating the recent movement against the Coalition in Western Australia. As of the next BludgerTrack update, which will be an expanded version featuring primary votes for each state, trend measures will be used.

Stay tuned for today's Essential Research results, with which this post will be updated early afternoon some time.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely on change in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, the Coalition leading 37% to 36% on the primary vote, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 8%.

The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have both leaders improving on last month – Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten is up three to 33% and down three to 46% – while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 38-26 to 39-28.

The government’s business tax cuts get the thumbs down, with 31% approving and 50% disapproving; only 20% believing the cut should extend to bigger businesses, with 60% deeming otherwise; and 57% thinking bigger business profits the more likely outcome of the cuts, compared with 26% for employing more workers.

On the question of whether various listed items were “getting better or worse for you and your family”, housing affordability, cost of electricity and gas and “the quality of political representation” emerged as the worst of a bad bunch.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

811 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017”

Comments Page 9 of 17
1 … 8 9 10 … 17

  1. It was ‘nice’ having a big wheat harvest at the end of last year, but –

    World stockpiles of corn and wheat are at record highs. From Iowa to China, years of bumper crops and low prices have overwhelmed storage capacity for basic foodstuffs.

    Global stocks of corn, wheat, rice and soybeans combined will hit a record 671.1 million tonnes going into the next harvest – the third straight year of historically high surplus, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). That’s enough to cover demand from China for about a year.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-grains-storage-analysis-idUSKBN17D0EO

    … the sale price is less than stellar.

  5. cud chewer @ #398 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 10:41 pm

    More uninformed rubbish from P1 on the price of electricity.
    I’ve seen the bill for one of the largest users of electricity in Perth and the total cost of peak energy is more than half of what a residential customer pay.

    Grimace, that concurs with what retailers tell me. There are large industrial users who do get a heavy discount, but again, this has nothing to do with big box retail and P1 was being intellectually dishonest again.

    With the large industrial users they own and maintain their own electrical infrastructure, so the “low” prices they pay are not what they seem, and they are on the hook for transformer losses which are normally factored into the overall price. Comparing household prices to large industrial is not comparing like with like.

  7. Looks like the adventures of Westinghouse Electric in building nuclear power stations in the US is going to bring its parent company – Toshiba – down.

  9. bemused @ #408 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 11:24 pm

    barney in go dau @ #406 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 11:06 pm

    kezza2 @ #377 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 9:32 pm

    Why do so many commenters think Player One is female?
    Because P1 is polite? Or did I miss an admission, somewhere?

    It came out in the “debate” on SSM that she was a she.

    Actually, I am still not 100% sure of that. She(?) plays stupid games.

    It’s irrelevant, it’s what P1 posts.

  12. That should give their staff some happy headlines in the morning.Lets see if its a big news item in their morning editions like it would be if it was any other industry,or swept under the carpet in a small column.

  13. News Corp Australia sacks most of its photographers and subeditors to cut costs

    Daily Telegraph, Herald Sun and Courier-Mail will lose dozens of staff and comes after company posted a second-quarter loss of $287m in February

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/apr/11/news-corp-australia-sacks-most-of-its-photographers-and-subeditors-to-cut-costs

    $278 mill lost in 13 weeks…about $3 mill/day…ouch. I’m starting to feel rewarded for my lifelong boycott of all Murdoch products.

  15. briefly @ #413 Wednesday, April 12th, 2017 – 12:30 am

    Daily Telegraph, Herald Sun and Courier-Mail will lose dozens of staff and comes after company posted a second-quarter loss of $287m in February

    Good news! I hope all of News Corp goes bankrupt. Though it’ll take many years even at that staggering rate of loss.

    Feel somewhat bad for the people about to lose their jobs, though at the same time not really as I have to assume that most of them knew what they were signing on for or at least decided to stick around anyways once it became clear how that organization operates. How bad should one feel for people who put money ahead of principles and then get burned on the deal?

  16. how screwed wuld news corp be if they didn’t get that $870 million free pass in the first few months of the Abbott Turnbull government

  21. MSNBC Doesn’t Let Sean Spicer Get Away With Lie That Hitler Didn’t Use Chemical Weapons

    MSNBC showed why they are surging in the ratings by correcting White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer on-screen when he falsely claimed that Hitler didn’t use chemical weapons in World War II.

    Of the two approaches, MSNBC’s was stronger. When dealing with an administration that lies as a course of normal business, it is important for the press to point out lies, misstatements, and inaccuracies as directly as possible.

    CNN gave Spicer the benefit of the doubt. MSNBC pointed out the facts.

    Looking at the two networks side by side, it is easy to see why MSNBC is challenging Fox News for ratings supremacy while CNN continues to muddle through as the oatmeal of cable news programming.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/11/msnbc-sean-spicer-lie-hitler-chemical-weapons.html

  22. America Stunned As Eric Trump Says Dad Bombed Syria Because Daughter Ivanka Was Upset

    According to Eric Trump, his father used his power as Commander In Chief of the US military to bomb a foreign country because images of the Assad chemical attack on Syrian children upset his daughter Ivanka.

    If it is true that Trump made the decision to bomb a foreign country because his daughter was upset, Congress should investigate, because this decision making process is more than an abuse of power. It may also be an indication of mentally unstable president.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/11/america-stunned-eric-trump-dad-bombed-syria-daughter-ivanka-upset.html

  23. A Reckless Donald Trump Issues a Twitter Warning to North Korea

    “North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A.”

    With his Syrian missile strike behind him, Donald Trump seems to be in search of another “easy win,” a public-relations stunt that will make him look strong and decisive and oh, by the way, make people forget his collusion with Russia.

    If that is Donald Trump’s idea of diplomacy, we’re all in a lot of trouble.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/11/reckless-trump-issues-twitter-warning-north-korea.html

  25. Honestly​ thats the most rational motivation I’ve seen proposed for pretty much anything Trump’s done since becoming President.

    Its a horrible way to make decisions but it’s a train of thought that can be followed by a human brain .

  26. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Now Trump is acting belligerently towards North Korea. No doubt he has all eventualities covered. Twitter bloody diplomacy!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/north-korea-looking-for-trouble-and-us-will-solve-problem-donald-trump-says-20170411-gvj2me.html
    The tax on an Australian family earning $82,000 a year has risen to the second highest rate in the developed world, figures from the OECD show. Australia’s tax level now trails only Denmark’s for a single-income family earning $82,000 a year with two children, according to the report.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tax-on-some-australian-families-second-highest-in-developed-world-report-finds-20170411-gvih8f.html
    Scripture study in NSW public schools continues to survive. Why? Oh, Fred Nile has the government by the shorts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/nsw-government-rejects-findings-of-independent-review-into-scripture-in-schools-20170411-gvis1c.html
    In quite a big spit Paul Kelly writes that t he problems facing the Turnbull government are of its own making yet part of a far bigger story — the failure of a political generation — where the demise of quality public policy is tied to the decline of trust in the political system. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/paul-kelly/hope-fades-for-good-politics-based-on-good-policy/news-story/d2805e86b41b520ecb556b12c9ab6c45
    Another couple of VET spiv outfits gets defunded.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/careers-australia-and-evocca-funding-stripped-from-two-of-australias-largest-colleges-20170411-gvidfo.html
    Tony Abbott continues to be “helpful” to Turnbull.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/housing-affordability-cut-immigration-and-let-first-home-buyers-raid-their-superannuation-says-tony-abbott-20170411-gviazo.html
    Evan Mulholland says that Abbott has got it all wrong about immigration and housing prices.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/barnaby-joyce-surprised-by-young-nationals-support-for-emissions-intensity-scheme-20170411-gvih6j.html
    Meanwhile Chris Richardson says our current house prices are “dangerously dumb” and 30% overvalued. Google.
    /news/economy/house-prices-dangerously-dumb-and-30pc-overvalued-chris-richardson-deloitte-20170411-gvil61
    And Rod Burgess tells us that it’s time to end Morrison’s “housing supply” con.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2017/04/11/housing-supply-con/
    According to this SMH editorial Morrison’s focus on the lack of social and affordable housing for Australians on lower incomes is welcome. But the government is more interested in addressing the problem of supply than the other part of the equation, low income.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/targeted-solutions-needed-for-the-problem-of-unaffordable-housing-20170410-gvhw8z.html

  27. Section 2 . . .

    Greg Hunt is locked in delicate negotiations with doctors’ and pharmacists’ organisations before the budget.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/federal-budget-2017-budget-razor-gang-to-consider-pharmacy-scheme-shakeup-20170411-gvijbe.html
    But you’ll pay more for X-rays and scans with out of pocket costs to rise to over $200 per screening, as the Turnbull Government prepares to ditch its election promise to raise Medicare rebates for the tests. Google.
    /lifestyle/health/youll-soon-be-slugged-hundreds-for-xrays-and-scan-tests-as-medicare-cover-shrinks/news-story/a8b9c220b8412327d76db77b68511b63
    The 2017 Federal Budget, which will be published a month from now, will focus on a completely pointless fiscal target and ignore a series of important issues writes Dr Steven Hail.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/budget-time-more-pointless-targets-and-fewer-fiscal-solutions-scomo-style,10196
    More and more is being revealed of Centrelink’s woeful performance over the robo-debt issue.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/12/almost-half-of-all-centrelink-robo-debt-notices-sent-to-private-debt-collectors
    Kristina Keneally says “There was a time I would attend church every day of Holy Week. Not this year – it is too hard to reconcile a church that makes special claims to grace with the findings of the royal commission into child sexual abuse” and tells us that this Easter it is the Catholic Church that needs redemption.
    \https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/12/this-easter-its-the-catholic-church-that-needs-redemption
    John Passant on Syria’s bombs and Turnbull’s crocodile tears.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/syria-trumps-bombs-and-turnbulls-crocodile-tears,10195
    According to Eric Trump, his father used his power as Commander In Chief of the US military to bomb a foreign country because images of the Assad chemical attack on Syrian children upset his daughter Ivanka. Enough said!
    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/11/america-stunned-eric-trump-dad-bombed-syria-daughter-ivanka-upset.html
    The tabloid papers and TV will go ape droppings as Schapelle Corby soon returns to Australia.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/schapelle-corby-prepares-for-deportation-to-australia-20170411-gvj0zv.html
    Dale Boccabella writes that when a legal institution does substantial harm to a significant portion of society’s members, it is just and proper to review it. That time is very close for discretionary trusts. Quite a racket really.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/forget-negative-gearing–this-is-the-tax-lurk-that-really-needs-fixing-20170411-gviicf.html

  28. Section 3 . . .

    How long can Sean (Comical Ali) Spicer survive?
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/11/sean-spicer-hitler-chemical-weapons-holocaust-assad
    Joyce says he was “surprised” by the party youth wing’s show of support for an emissions intensity scheme, a position at odds with the group’s parliamentary leaders.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/barnaby-joyce-surprised-by-young-nationals-support-for-emissions-intensity-scheme-20170411-gvih6j.html
    Coles and Woolworths are learning that customers don’t like to wait a long time for service while seeing lots of closed checkouts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/coles-plays-catchup-with-easter-checkout-promise-20170411-gvirv2.html
    America’s airlines are shameless but United has just hit a new low.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/11/airlines-bad-customer-service-united-new-low

  30. PhoenixRED
    The Anne Frank Center a bit desperate to be part of the Trump hunt. What happened at the camps was not the use of “chemical weapons” and to equate what Spicer said with “holocaust denial” is to draw a very long bow indeed.

  32. ‘The Anne Frank Center a bit desperate to be part of the Trump hunt. What happened at the camps was not the use of “chemical weapons” and to equate what Spicer said with “holocaust denial” is to draw a very long bow indeed.’

    WTF? Do you understand the definition of ‘weapon’?
    I suppose in your mind the chemicals were used as air freshener?

    I’ve seen some weird statements on PB, but this one just about takes the cake.

  36. Truffles made a fortune from a slow internet; doesn’t see why anyone needs anything faster! Yet he has spouted rubbish about believing in innovation.

    “This is the largest single waste of public funds in Australia’s history. Turnbull must take ownership of this mess. The cost to the taxpayer is currently at $49.5 billion and there is every indication the government will have to tip in another $5-10 billion.”
    “Every Australian expert could see what was happening with technology,” he said. “The economic case used by the Coalition government was nonsense from the outset.

    “This is the largest single waste of public funds in Australia’s history. Turnbull must take ownership of this mess. The cost to the taxpayer is currently at $49.5 billion and there is every indication the government will have to tip in another $5-10 billion.”

    Paddy Manning, author of the Turnbull biography Born to Rule, told The New Daily that Malcolm Turnbull had been sceptical of the NBN from day one.

    “In the 1990s Turnbull made a fortune from the internet, more than $40 million,” Mr Manning said. “Unfortunately he drew the wrong lessons from his experience. He thought there would not be enough demand for superfast broadband.

    “There was also a knee-jerk ideological wariness of government enterprise and an unwillingness to embark on genuine long term nation building infrastructure projects.

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/04/10/the-experts-agree-turnbulls-nbn-is-a-national-tragedy/

  37. Geoff Pearson‏ @GCobber99 · 11h11 hours ago
    I want see Turnbull look straight down the camera and explain why Australia’s Auto industry was destroyed yet Adani mine get 1Bn dollars

  39. What a bunch of shysters – but probably expected.

    Two weeks ago I transferred from Medibank Private to another fund. Today they debited my account with the usual monthly payment. Admittedly the person at the new fund told me that Medibank would probably do that.

  41. How fast are Turnbull Hanson et al are going to run from Trump now that Holocaust denial is an official line of the White House?

  43. Sorry my last post went too far. I can’t claim Holocaust denial from the Spicer presser as much as I think thats what lies behind the stuff up

  44. Just read the Paul Kelly ‘article’…what a load of shite, but the comments that follow are (sorry can’t find the words to describe them). What the fek has happened to this country? Has roughly half the population been lobotomised via a government and Muckrake programme we know nothing about? With ‘journalists’ like the ones it employs it’s no wonder Muckrake and Co are going down the gurgler.

  45. A very important vote this weekend. Turkey is having a referendum on a change from a parliamentary to a presidential republic. Come on down dictator Erdogan and even more crap in the Middle East.

    1) He or she would be given sweeping new powers to appoint ministers, prepare the budget, choose the majority of senior judges and enact certain laws by decree.

    2)The president alone would be able to announce a state of emergency and dismiss parliament.

    3)Parliament would lose its right to scrutinise ministers or propose an enquiry. However, it would be able to begin impeachment proceedings or investigate the
    president with a majority vote by MPs. Putting the president on trial would require a two-thirds majority.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38883556

  46. In more extrapolation from the United Airlines episode, this looks at the dehumanisation of the interaction between the customer and the service provider – thinking emotional living breathing humans behaving like lobotomised robots because the computer said so:

    http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/the-corporation-does-not-always-have-to-win-1794181209?utm_source=TractionNext&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Worm-Subscribe-120417

    (if you’ve watched the video of the chinese doctor being dragged off the plane you’ll have heard one other passenger calling out ‘yeah, way to go, way to go’)

    The parallels with Centrelink and its trickle down from Tudge inhumanity are pretty apparent.

Comments Page 9 of 17
1 … 8 9 10 … 17

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *