Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017

Detailed Newspoll breakdowns find older voters, regional areas and Western Australians turning particularly heavily against the Turnbull government.

If you’ll pardon me for being a day late with this one, The Australian has published the regular quarterly breakdowns of voting intention by state, age and gender (voting intention here, leadership ratings here), which suggest swings against the Coalition of 2% in South Australia, 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and just shy of 8% in Western Australia. The demographic breakdowns are interesting in showing particularly strong movement against the Coalition among the older age cohort (down 10% on the primary vote, compared with 7% overall) and those outside the capital cities (down 9%, compared with around half that in the capitals). The polling was drawn from all of Newspoll’s surveying through February and March, with an overall sample of 6943.

Late as usual, below is BludgerTrack updated with last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research. The state breakdowns in BludgerTrack are a little compromised at the moment in using a straight average of all polling since the election to determine each state’s deviation from the total, and is thus understating the recent movement against the Coalition in Western Australia. As of the next BludgerTrack update, which will be an expanded version featuring primary votes for each state, trend measures will be used.

Stay tuned for today's Essential Research results, with which this post will be updated early afternoon some time.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely on change in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, the Coalition leading 37% to 36% on the primary vote, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 8%.

The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have both leaders improving on last month – Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten is up three to 33% and down three to 46% – while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 38-26 to 39-28.

The government’s business tax cuts get the thumbs down, with 31% approving and 50% disapproving; only 20% believing the cut should extend to bigger businesses, with 60% deeming otherwise; and 57% thinking bigger business profits the more likely outcome of the cuts, compared with 26% for employing more workers.

On the question of whether various listed items were “getting better or worse for you and your family”, housing affordability, cost of electricity and gas and “the quality of political representation” emerged as the worst of a bad bunch.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

811 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017”

  1. One Nation is threatening to oppose government bills if ABC’s funding is not cut in the May budget.

    That’s a stupidly empty threat. Cutting ABC budget is a natural for Truffles.

  2. Morning all.

    Comical Ali is the perfect embodiment of the incompetence, ignorance and chaotic dysfunction of the Trump administration. Trump couldn’t have picked a more appropriate spokesperson for him.

  3. I wonder what Barnaby thinks about:

    * $1 Trillion cost globally
    * $1 Billion drain on Qld economy
    * 1 million tourists a year lost
    * 10,000 jobs at risk

    which is what Australia’s Climate Council projects the reef damage will cost.

    Why of course, let’s lend the Adani Indians a billion to build a railway that $2-a-day Gina wants to use. What could possibly go wrong.

    Let Gina fkn build it for starters I say.

  4. I see there was a lot of discussion after I went to bed last night whether I am male or female. As far as I can recall I have never disclosed my gender, nor do I intend to. I do wonder why it is so important to some of you, but if it makes you feel better to think of me as a particular gender, feel free to do so. It makes no difference to me at all. I will continue to respond to either.

    I also see there was some suggestion that I am a liberal “pretending” to be a leftie.
    I have heard this one a few times. Given what I post, this is so ridiculous it really needs no denial, but just so we are 100% clear – no I am not. I have acknowledged that I used to be a member of the ALP, but am currently not. I may rejoin the ALP at some point. I would not join any other party.

    As far as I can see, I generate so much of this kind of crap because (1) I decline to debate further with those whose primary ambition is to insult and belittle; and (2) there are a few posters here who simply don’t like having their posts contradicted. When you point out the facts to them and they find they cannot dispute them, they resort to attacking the poster instead.

    Neither of these things bothers me in the slightest, so knock yourselves out, people.

  5. Barney in Go Dau
    #456 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 8:42 am
    Point of order yer wershipness.
    Can a collective be described as a “prick” ❓
    What’s a Go Dau. Is it one of them there piss ups and hoedowns ❓
    ☺ ☕ ☮

  6. Page problem appear to be resolved.
    My #460 post left me on the same page. Probably information posted already. I am a little more away with the fairies than usual. ☮

  7. kayjay @ #460 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 8:55 am

    Barney in Go Dau
    #456 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 8:42 am
    Point of order yer wershipness.
    Can a collective be described as a “prick” ❓
    What’s a Go Dau. Is it one of them there piss ups and hoedowns ❓

    Ah, but I’m using it to say they both share a common attribute.

    Re: Go Dau only for some of the local Vietnamese, I’m the only non-Viet in town except for the weekends when another teacher comes out from HCMC. 🙂

  8. Is Turnbull as big a liar as Tony Abbott? Discuss.

    Richard Denniss‏ @RDNS_TAI · 32m32 minutes ago

    .#Adani told a judge project would create 1464 direct & indirect jobs. Turnbull tells public it will create ‘tens of thousands’ #auspol

  9. Ugh! That woman! And that poonce, Christopher Pyne! Page 404ed, not once, but 4 times this morning! Even though I correctly Signed In with my correct password I kept getting sent back to Julie Bishop and Christopher Pyne in Room 404! Honestly, that is the sickest, lowest joke Crikey has ever decided to play on us payers for it’s services.

    Lucky for Crikey they have rectified the situation because they were going to cop a phone call from me if they didn’t!

    And I don’t care if I cop yet another tongue-lashing from Borefire Bill for complaining about it. The sight of Julie Bishop and Christopher Pyne, over and over again like some recurring nightmare I could not awaken from, first thing in the morning put me off my breakfast for hours!

    End of rant. 🙂

  10. World stockpiles of corn and wheat are at record highs. From Iowa to China, years of bumper crops and low prices have overwhelmed storage capacity for basic foodstuffs.

    Yet the UN is unable to get the stuff to the Horn of Africa to feed the starving, drought-affected masses.

    There’s something really, really perverse about that.

  11. “This is the largest single waste of public funds in Australia’s history.”

    Closely followed by Direct Inaction.
    Strange how few of our fearless journalists seem keen to report on this outstanding example of the government’s ineptitude and venality.

  12. ItzaDream,
    Hopefully the ACF and like-minded souls will tie Adani up in the courts until after the next election.

    Which reminds me of a little snippet I heard on the radio this morning. Apparently Bill Shorten is dead set against the Adani Mine but the Unions and the Queensland government are putting heavy pressure on him to change his position.

    I hope he doesn’t. It would make all his subsequent comments about the need to tackle Global Warming sound hollow.

  13. lizzie @ #467 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 9:10 am

    KayJay
    Hang in there. Miss Matilda the Scottie sends good wishes.

    Many thanks.
    I have more support than usual. The favourite son and favourite daughter came last night.
    Good to catch up with health information from son and bountiful gossip from daughter, mostly about persons who are complete strangers to me.
    We have had a good deal of rain overnight so that my mowing program has been curtailed. Unfortunate really because the mowing gets me worn out and enables me to sleep. Never mind, the world goes on.
    Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ Butterflies are free ❗ What has that to do with anything ❓ Not much, but very pretty.

  14. c@tmomma @ #469 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 9:12 am

    World stockpiles of corn and wheat are at record highs. From Iowa to China, years of bumper crops and low prices have overwhelmed storage capacity for basic foodstuffs.
    Yet the UN is unable to get the stuff to the Horn of Africa to feed the starving, drought-affected masses.
    There’s something really, really perverse about that.

    I’ve seen analysis of this problem before, getting it physically to these locations is not the problem, its distribution of the food once it’s in country.

    My sister in law and her husband farm vegetables, the amount of produce that is rejected purely for cosmetic reasons and fed to their cattle should be criminal in a world where people are starving.

  15. Greensborough Growler
    Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 8:33 am
    PR101 is Never make comparisons to Hitler!

    Don’t mention the war ? 🙂 That seems like a good way to let fascists frame a debate.

    I’m not sure it’s possible for the Anne Frank Centre to follow such advice. The world is a better place when people are trying not to be Hitler.

    And further, whenever someone says “Goodwins Law”, I instantly think they must be a fascist.

  16. KayJay

    Not all butterflies are ‘free’.

    People are often surprised to learn that some butterflies are territorial. This may be due to the common view of butterflies as being carefree, fluttery creatures. Yet some male butterflies, including some in the genus Vanessa, are capable of maintaining and aggressively defending territories through purposive behaviors such as patrolling flights and complex interactions in flight with intruders of their own species (Bitzer and Shaw 1979).

  17. I kept getting sent back to Julie Bishop and Christopher Pyne in Room 404 …. …. The sight of Julie Bishop and Christopher Pyne, over and over again like some recurring nightmare

    That’s not Room 404. That’s Room 101.

  18. ‘And further, whenever someone says “Goodwins Law”, I instantly think they must be a fascist.’

    That’s because in most cases they are.

  19. lizzie @ #452 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 8:35 am

    “One Nation is threatening to oppose government bills if ABC’s funding is not cut in the May budget.”

    Good, since the govt will cut funding anyway, opposition parties can accuse the govt of being weak and giving in to PHON threats

  20. But you’ll pay more for X-rays and scans with out of pocket costs to rise to over $200 per screening, as the Turnbull Government prepares to ditch its election promise to raise Medicare rebates for the tests. Google.
    /lifestyle/health/youll-soon-be-slugged-hundreds-for-xrays-and-scan-tests-as-medicare-cover-shrinks/news-story

    And the Coalition, and Turnbull as Declaimer-In-Chief, had the hide to call it ‘Mediscare’.

    The Labor Party were on the money back before the election with their claims that the Coalition wanted to dismantle Medicare. And they still are!

  21. Lizzie, re decapitating. I can only read the headlines. I can’t bear to open it. I was born into the house literally opposite the Albury Botanic Gardens, at the end of Dean Street.

  22. ItzaDream

    That’s why I didn’t copy. The deaths were over a period of time and because there are few Platypuses there, the wildlife people think they may have been from one family.

    I think many humans are like chimpanzees. They kill for fun.

  23. C@Tmomma

    It is a pity we are not in the US, Crikey’s subjecting you to Pyne and Jules would qualify as “cruel and unusual punishment”.

  24. phoenixRED @ #421 Wednesday, April 12th, 2017 – 6:41 am

    CNN gave Spicer the benefit of the doubt.

    Problem is that the benefit of the doubt is something that you give someone you presume to be trustworthy when they say something that seems questionable.

    It’s not something you extend to someone who’s demonstrated a clear and repeated history of telling blatant lies on just about every subject, or when someone says something that’s so obviously and trivially untrue that no amount of doubt can change the outcome.

    CNN needs to get with the program. Their job is to aggressively challenge and debunk falsehoods, not quietly promulgate them.

  25. Q,
    It’s actually Godwin.

    My observation is that whenever someone invokes a comparison to Hitler as either rhetorical flourish or to demonise someone else, they lose the debate. This is clearly evident in the reaction to Spicer’s comments.

  26. lizzie @ #479 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 9:26 am

    KayJay
    Not all butterflies are ‘free’.

    People are often surprised to learn that some butterflies are territorial. This may be due to the common view of butterflies as being carefree, fluttery creatures. Yet some male butterflies, including some in the genus Vanessa, are capable of maintaining and aggressively defending territories through purposive behaviors such as patrolling flights and complex interactions in flight with intruders of their own species (Bitzer and Shaw 1979).

    I was thinking of the movie with Goldie Hawn and the song.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udI8ATZyvIU

  27. On the subject of Googling “Goodwins Law” This amusing post has been put on the Urban Dictionary.

    THIS IS A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT:

    With the emboldening of the Alt-Reich Fascists all over North America and Europe following the election of their cheeto-dusted Fuhrer, Donald J. Trump. The Godwin’s Law is hereby suspended in solidarity with the Anti-Fascist resisters, until further notice.

    Effective immediately.
    With Trump’s new requirement for the elimination of two old regulations everytime a new one (for the health and safety of people and the planet alike) is put into place, it’s only responsible that Godwin’s Law be the first to go.
    by Lascaux Othello February 24, 2017

    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Godwin%27s%20Law

  28. Booleanbach

    This was a !!!!

    “The U.S. government spends more on wars (and military occupations) abroad every year than all 50 states combined spend on health, education, welfare, and safety.”

  29. Lizzie
    Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 9:26 am
    KayJay

    Not all butterflies are ‘free’.

    People are often surprised to learn that some butterflies are territorial. This may be due to the common view of butterflies as being carefree, fluttery creatures. Yet some male butterflies, including some in the genus Vanessa, are capable of maintaining and aggressively defending territories through purposive behaviors such as patrolling flights and complex interactions in flight with intruders of their own species (Bitzer and Shaw 1979).

    I never thought of my backyard as being an aerial war zone. However there have been a few ground skirmishes (no casualties) between our dog and an intruding cat.

  30. The idea that the Anne Frank Center can’t take offence at Spicer is very weak. The idea that someone automatically loses a debate by saying “Hitler” is even weaker.

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