Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017

Detailed Newspoll breakdowns find older voters, regional areas and Western Australians turning particularly heavily against the Turnbull government.

If you’ll pardon me for being a day late with this one, The Australian has published the regular quarterly breakdowns of voting intention by state, age and gender (voting intention here, leadership ratings here), which suggest swings against the Coalition of 2% in South Australia, 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and just shy of 8% in Western Australia. The demographic breakdowns are interesting in showing particularly strong movement against the Coalition among the older age cohort (down 10% on the primary vote, compared with 7% overall) and those outside the capital cities (down 9%, compared with around half that in the capitals). The polling was drawn from all of Newspoll’s surveying through February and March, with an overall sample of 6943.

Late as usual, below is BludgerTrack updated with last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research. The state breakdowns in BludgerTrack are a little compromised at the moment in using a straight average of all polling since the election to determine each state’s deviation from the total, and is thus understating the recent movement against the Coalition in Western Australia. As of the next BludgerTrack update, which will be an expanded version featuring primary votes for each state, trend measures will be used.

Stay tuned for today's Essential Research results, with which this post will be updated early afternoon some time.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely on change in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, the Coalition leading 37% to 36% on the primary vote, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 8%.

The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have both leaders improving on last month – Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten is up three to 33% and down three to 46% – while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 38-26 to 39-28.

The government’s business tax cuts get the thumbs down, with 31% approving and 50% disapproving; only 20% believing the cut should extend to bigger businesses, with 60% deeming otherwise; and 57% thinking bigger business profits the more likely outcome of the cuts, compared with 26% for employing more workers.

On the question of whether various listed items were “getting better or worse for you and your family”, housing affordability, cost of electricity and gas and “the quality of political representation” emerged as the worst of a bad bunch.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

811 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017”

  1. Haha, this new tv drama ‘The US news’ is hilarious. Glad nothing like this could happen in real life.

    In making his unreserved apology, Spicer made a further couple of gaffes, … stating that he didn’t want to distract from President Donald Trump’s attempt to “de-stabilise the region”.

  2. Spot the irony in this paragraph from the Paul Kelly article in BK’s links this morning:

    Paul Keating’s famous line that “good policy is good politics” is the rare exception these days. We fool ourselves thinking fake news is a Trump phenomenon when Australia is littered with the disease in our flawed public debates.

    Yep, a Murdoch scribe actually put that to print. :facepalm emoji:

  3. Invoking Hitler always gets a reaction, though often it isn’t the reaction the invoker is after. Best to simply stay away unless you are discussing actual history.

  4. Dan that is why media is so hilarious these days … they’re a demonstration of lots of cliches: i.e. physician heal thyself; can’t see the forest for the trees … and so on.

    Media is so busy berating others for their own failings it’d be comical were it not for the fact that they still influence so many of the ‘unaware’ in our society

  5. Spicer’s comment.

    You had someone as despicable as Hitler, who didn’t even sink to using chemical weapons.”

    So Spicer lies, and loses the argument by saying “Hitler”, but the Anne Frank Center should pull it’s head in???

  6. citizen
    #498 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 9:50 am
    Veerrryy interestink. (♥♥,)

    “Laugh In”.
    Get to it building your shelter to protect against marauding cats.

  7. Any thoughts on likelihood of a Newspoll this weekend?

    Points in favor
    It’s a fortnight since the last one.
    If they want to replace Turnbull with a ‘real conservative’, best to bring out 20 more Newspolls before people learn too much about Dutton.

    Points against:
    Hard to get people to answer over Easter.
    Politicians aren’t sitting.

    My guess is it’s unlikely – they will want one just before the budget, which is 3 weeks from this weekend.

    So either we’ll get an Anzac weekend Newspoll and a fortnight later get a pre-budget one, or we’ll just get a pre-budget one.

  8. According to this SMH editorial Morrison’s focus on the lack of social and affordable housing for Australians on lower incomes is welcome.

    I’d be very wary about this policy. I can see Scott Morrison and Malcolm Turnbull crafting a policy which will place all of this new social housing together in the one place, where they can all vote Labor till the cows come home and leave everywhere else for people to get on with being Aspirational, wealthy and Liberal voting.

    It sounds paranoid, I know, but I wouldn’t put anything past this lot.

    Whereas they should increase the Rent Assistance Payment to allow Social Security recipients to live in Private Rental Accommodation spread out in the community.

  9. Spot the irony in this paragraph from the Paul Kelly article in BK’s links this morning

    Just part of the SOP of lying about everything and then lying that it’s the ‘other mob’ that are the liars.

    Same thing as Turnbull’s jabs at Shorten being a liar when no one is more fake than him.

    Timely that Room 101 got a mention this morning. It’s doublethink pure and simple.

  10. I’d be very wary about this policy. I can see Scott Morrison and Malcolm Turnbull crafting a policy which will place all of this new social housing together in the one place

    Right to be concerned. Wrong concern.

    The plan will be (as all their plans essentially boil down to) to shovel taxpayer funds to spivs and get some back as donations.

    ‘Social Housing’ will be farmed out to private spivs who will make a killing. The quality of said housing won’t make grade, but all the better to turn a profit.

    Think private tertiary education.

  11. Poroti,
    It is a pity we are not in the US, Crikey’s subjecting you to Pyne and Jules would qualify as “cruel and unusual punishment”.

    I would add that it was the equivalent of Chinese Water Torture, as it kept happening again and again and again… 🙂

  12. Lizzie,
    Clover Mooore’s (sp?) policy of providing subsidised homes in Sydney City for centre city workers sounded interesting.

    Waterloo, iirc, is in the City of Sydney. Those Social Housing projects are slated for removal. Clover Moore can do nothing about that.

    Millers Point Social Housing is going, going, gone. Clover Moore can do nothing about that.

    I don’t think what she can, or has, replaced it with will come close to filling those gaps. I also can’t think where she would put them. Every square inch of City of Sydney land is worth a bomb!


    We are gravely concerned about the push by Adani and the Queensland Government to open up the Carmichael Mine on our traditional lands. Our traditional lands are an interconnected and living whole; a vital cultural landscape. It is central to us as a People, and to the maintenance of our identity, laws and consequent rights.

    If the Carmichael mine were to proceed it would tear the heart out of the land. The scale of this mine means it would have devastating impacts on our native title, ancestral lands and waters, our totemic plants and animals, and our environmental and cultural heritage. It would pollute and drain billions of litres of groundwater, and obliterate important springs systems. It would potentially wipe out threatened and endangered species. It would literally leave a huge black hole, monumental in proportions, where there were once our homelands. These effects are irreversible. Our land will be “disappeared”.

    Nor would the direct impacts be limited to our lands – they would have cascading effects on the neighbouring lands and waters of other Traditional Owners and other landholders in the region. And the mine would cause damage to climate, unleashing a mass of carbon into the atmosphere and propelling dangerous global warming.

    We could not in all conscience consent to such wholesale destruction. Nor could we allow such a project to contribute to the dire unfolding effects of climate change that pose such great risks to all peoples.

    We know that many other people who care deeply about conserving natural places, vital water resources, the great fauna and flora of central Queensland, and a health planet share our concerns about this mine.

    When we say No, we mean No.

  14. Lizzie: Clover Mooore’s (sp?) policy of providing subsidised homes in Sydney City for centre city workers sounded interesting.

    Three o’s for Clover is generous, Cheers more likely. She’s a good woman. She understands the mix and the need for it. She cares.

    Two current public housing battles she has taken on are one against the demolition of public housing in the brutalist hated Sirius building at The Rocks (spiv’s dream) and other against the sale of public housing at Miller’s Point (bang opposite the new Barangaroo fabulous headland park – very good for spivs). Just two obvious examples in what is a very public and civic minded Mayorship.

    Next on the Sydney agenda is the proposed demolition of the two high-rise public housing estates at Waterloo (bigly more for spivs) with equal public housing guaranteed in the redevelopment. If it was double the public housing it might have legs. Pru Goward is the Minister for Inhuman Resources behind this.

  15. Guytaur

    I have been onto Louise Mensch on Twitter for months. She was the first one just before election to confirm the Fisa Warrants on Trump’s campaign associates. She seems a little extreme at times, but so far, she has been on the money

  16. FBI Obtained Secret Warrant During 2016 Campaign To Monitor Trump Adviser For Russian Ties

    This is the clearest evidence so far that the FBI had reason to believe during the 2016 presidential campaign that a Trump campaign adviser was in touch with Russian agents.”

    It also means that it’s quite possible – probable even – that other members of the Trump team were under legal surveillance during the campaign for their ties to Moscow, and whether Russia and the Trump campaign colluded.

    No matter how many times this administration tries to distract from this scandal, or how many bombs they drop on the Middle East, it’s clearly not going away anytime soon.

  17. Boycott Crushes Fox News As Bill O’Reilly Loses More Than 50% Of His Advertisers

    A new analysis reveals that Fox News has lost more than 50% of the advertisers for The O’Reilly Factor and new advertisers are not replacing those who have left.

    Fox News is paying the price for supporting Bill O’Reilly. It doesn’t matter how many people are watching; the network will lose money as long as advertisers stay away from The O’Reilly Factor.

    The numbers don’t lie. The boycott is working as “The No Spin Zone” is quickly turning into the “No Revenue Zone” for Fox News.

  18. Clover Moore can do nothing about that

    Literally that may be so, but C@t she can do something. She can call it out, and does. Social media, rallies. There was a rally in Macquarie Street the other weekend on the Millers Point housing. It may be gone, but it must be kept in the public awareness and weight kept on the scales and the arguments countered, or there will be no end of it. Doing nothing is not an option.

  19. in a nutshell

    John Schindler‏ @20committee

    Sean Spicer is neither a Nazi nor a Holocaust denier.

    He’s just a complete blithering idiot.

    And the President’s spokesman.

    7:55 AM · Apr 12, 2017

  20. Nuclear arms expert lists 5 frightening scenarios for how the North Korea standoff could end in catastrophe

    Tensions are rising between North Korea and the United States, and one arms control expert believes there are a number of frightening scenarios that could result in catastrophe.

    Among other things, Lewis says that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un might believe that Trump will launch an attack against his country — and that he will then preempt it with an attack of his own on South Korea.

    “My worry is that Trump says or does something incautious or imprudent, as he often does, which North Korea interprets as deadly serious and decides to escalate immediately to deter a potential invasion,” he says. “It’s easy to see how things could get out of hand in a hurry.”

    Conversely, North Korea could go too far in one of its own provocations, which would lead Trump to overreact by starting a war that quickly spirals out of control.

  21. ‘There can be no joy in such incompetence’: Dan Rather hammers Sean Spicer’s ‘unhinged’ Hitler comments

    Legendary journalist Dan Rather absolutely unloaded on White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer on Tuesday afternoon, bluntly calling him “incompetent.”

    “I do not know where to begin,” Rather wrote. “Today in a briefing, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer issued a statement that is so far beyond the pale, so tone deaf and blind to history and our precarious moment in world affairs, that it is with only a heavy heart that I even bring attention to it. There can be no joy in such incompetence.”

    “This line of rhetoric is so unhinged, so amateurish, so lacking in the context and perspective necessary for statesmanship and diplomacy that I do not see how Mr. Spicer can be allowed to continue in his current position,”

  22. PhoenixRed

    Hence my view is that if the Intell agencies have enough evidence on Trump and his cronies, they shouldn’t waste too much time. Trump is literally a ticking time bomb

  23. Classified docs pushed by Nunes show no evidence Obama administration wiretapped Trump: report

    Republican and Democratic lawmakers have found no evidence to substantiate Donald Trump’s claim that former President Barack Obama “wire tapped” Trump Tower during the 2016 election, or engaged in any nefarious activity agains the Trump campaign, CNN reports.

    Now, members of the House and Senate intelligence committees have seen the intelligence reports, according to CNN. And they seen nothing “unusual of illegal” on the part of the Obama administration, with one source describing the requisitions make by Obama’s National Security Adviser Susan Rice as “normal and appropriate.”

  24. City of Sydney through Clover Moore has had an actual impact on affordable housing. They have donated either money, land or property titles they’ve acquired to community housing providers. Clover Moore was instrumental in having Green Square (urban renewal) included in the state affordable housing scheme, ie allowing the council to levy developers to provide affordable housing. They’ve also supported increases in density where the increase is affordable housing. City of Sydney’s work saw the recent opening of a new 120 unit affordable housing complex in the last couple of months. While she is hamstrung by certain state policies, she has actually done way more than you think.

  25. victoria Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 11:04 am
    Hence my view is that if the Intell agencies have enough evidence on Trump and his cronies, they shouldn’t waste too much time. Trump is literally a ticking time bomb

    100% a AGREE – a moron in North Korea …… another in the White House ….. and a bunch Russia/Syria/Iran morons inbetween ……. a disaster just waiting to happen …..

  26. PhoenixRed


    One of the tweeps i follow, Claude Taylor who is an insider, says July is when Trump will either resign or be impeached. July is too far away at this point!

  27. ides of march @ #538 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 11:07 am

    While she is hamstrung by certain state policies, she has actually done way more than you think.

    I’ve never found Clover Moore to be a very effective mayor. Sydney has definitely become a much worse city to live during her tenure, although I concede that this is not entirely – perhaps not even mostly – her fault.

    However, she lost me completely when she opposed the lockout laws. Some things are worth more than money.

  28. ‘So Spicer lies, and loses the argument by saying “Hitler”, but the Anne Frank Center should pull it’s head in???’

    Yes, that’s the bit I don’t get either. But hey, when were these kind of people subject to the laws of logic anyway.

  29. On the timebomb issue.

    Trump is seen as weak and erratic. Thats why Trump is being tested by the likes of North Korea.

    As a result Trump is facing the most international flashpoints since WW2

  30. Guttaur; interesting to note that you have to go to the Environment section to see Clare’s ALP response re. the Adani mine. It didn’t make it to the front page; whereas Turnbull’s promise to Adani that Native Title would not get a look in, did.

  31. Bool

    Yes vested interest of owner shows.

    I forgot to say in last post. Leon Panetta on CNN made the most flashpoints since WW2 comment.

  32. Donald Trump’s White House can’t even organize the Easter Egg Roll

    The annual Easter Egg Roll is seen as microcosm of how the White House works — or, in Trump’s case, doesn’t work

    Easter Sunday is just days away, but apparently, President Donald Trump is worlds behind in the planning for the annual White House Easter Egg Roll.

    The Sunday tradition is 138 years old, and as Melinda Bates, the Easter event organizer behind President Bill Clinton’s eight times as host, told The New York Times, “It’s the single most high-profile event that takes place at the White House each year, and the White House and the first lady are judged on how well they put it on.”

    Obviously, to Donald Trump’s White House, this is a disaster in the making

  33. Adrian
    Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 11:17 am
    Totally agree.

    Tut-tutting the Anne Frank Center for bringing up Hitler is odd in itself. It’s a bit like saying the EPA can’t say “Climate Change”.

    Staff at the US Energy Department were reportedly told to stop using the phrases “climate change”, “emissions reduction” and “Paris Agreement” in all briefings and written communications, on the same day Donald Trump signed an executive order overturning most of Barack Obama’s regulations aimed at tackling global warming.

    But even if you accept the spurious “accepted wisdom” that you can’t mention Hitler in serious debate (which I don’t), in this case it was Spicer who made the comparison to Hitler in the first place!

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