Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017

Detailed Newspoll breakdowns find older voters, regional areas and Western Australians turning particularly heavily against the Turnbull government.

If you’ll pardon me for being a day late with this one, The Australian has published the regular quarterly breakdowns of voting intention by state, age and gender (voting intention here, leadership ratings here), which suggest swings against the Coalition of 2% in South Australia, 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and just shy of 8% in Western Australia. The demographic breakdowns are interesting in showing particularly strong movement against the Coalition among the older age cohort (down 10% on the primary vote, compared with 7% overall) and those outside the capital cities (down 9%, compared with around half that in the capitals). The polling was drawn from all of Newspoll’s surveying through February and March, with an overall sample of 6943.

Late as usual, below is BludgerTrack updated with last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research. The state breakdowns in BludgerTrack are a little compromised at the moment in using a straight average of all polling since the election to determine each state’s deviation from the total, and is thus understating the recent movement against the Coalition in Western Australia. As of the next BludgerTrack update, which will be an expanded version featuring primary votes for each state, trend measures will be used.

Stay tuned for today's Essential Research results, with which this post will be updated early afternoon some time.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely on change in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, the Coalition leading 37% to 36% on the primary vote, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 8%.

The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have both leaders improving on last month – Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten is up three to 33% and down three to 46% – while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 38-26 to 39-28.

The government’s business tax cuts get the thumbs down, with 31% approving and 50% disapproving; only 20% believing the cut should extend to bigger businesses, with 60% deeming otherwise; and 57% thinking bigger business profits the more likely outcome of the cuts, compared with 26% for employing more workers.

On the question of whether various listed items were “getting better or worse for you and your family”, housing affordability, cost of electricity and gas and “the quality of political representation” emerged as the worst of a bad bunch.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

811 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017”

  1. John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee

    Sean “Holocaust Centers” Spicer is the dumbest dumb shit in a White House chock full of them.

  2. phoenixRED @ #548 Wednesday, April 12th, 2017 – 11:32 am

    Donald Trump’s White House can’t even organize the Easter Egg Roll

    The annual Easter Egg Roll is seen as microcosm of how the White House works — or, in Trump’s case, doesn’t work

    Easter Sunday is just days away, but apparently, President Donald Trump is worlds behind in the planning for the annual White House Easter Egg Roll.

    The Sunday tradition is 138 years old, and as Melinda Bates, the Easter event organizer behind President Bill Clinton’s eight times as host, told The New York Times, “It’s the single most high-profile event that takes place at the White House each year, and the White House and the first lady are judged on how well they put it on.”

    Obviously, to Donald Trump’s White House, this is a disaster in the making

    http://www.salon.com/2017/04/11/donald-trumps-white-house-cant-even-organize-the-easter-egg-roll/

    Cadburys must be behind this outrage!

  3. Greensborough Growler Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 11:37 am

    phoenixRED @ #548 Wednesday, April 12th, 2017 – 11:32 am

    “Donald Trump’s White House can’t even organize the Easter Egg Roll ”

    Cadburys must be behind this outrage!

    **********************************************
    Like many brands are doing in the US GG – Cadbury’s would do anything to avoid being associated with Trump …..

  4. Question @ #550 Wednesday, April 12th, 2017 – 11:32 am

    But even if you accept the spurious “accepted wisdom” that you can’t mention Hitler in serious debate

    The accepted wisdom is slightly more nuanced than that. And also originally intended as a predictive measure rather than as a “you lose the argument” trigger.

    You don’t automatically lose just for referencing Hitler, provided that your reference is accurate and your comparison apt. However implying that Assad is worse than Hitler because Hitler never gassed his own people is neither accurate nor apt. Which makes it worthy of automatic loss of the argument.

    Rumblings were that Spicer was on the verge of being fired anyways. He may as well pack up his bags and resign at this point.

  5. Lizzie,
    Thanks. BTW, how many levels does Bookworm go up to? I’ve reached 10 and would like to know what I’m aiming for

    I think it goes by the title of the person you become, and I became the Master Publisher or somesuch a couple of times when I scored over a quarter of a million points. It soon became obvious to me that you cannot go further than that and it is self-limiting because all of a sudden you get flaming tiles coming out of the wazoo of the worm to burn the house down! 😀

  6. P1:

    I dont have a lot of time so I’ll keep it short. Clover Moore is the best option for Sydney City Council. Having a non aligned person (in relation the big political parties) is important. She is more aligned with the community and even when gerry mandered against her the community awarded her a clear majority. She survives attempts to knock her off.

    As to lockout laws, she is well within her rights to oppose them. They are poorly targeted, and have wiped out a range of music and arts and culture events from the city. Kings Cross was always a red light district but know its is empty and quiet. I am not even a big fan of the cross and said events, but I can see the damage it has caused.

  7. AR,
    Accepted, Godwin didn’t actual coin the term with the intention of how it has eventually come to be widely used/abused. Political debate is more complicated than a golden rule in any case. But it has become an oft deployed tool of right wing arsholes to suppress and or manipulate debate by casting themselves as victims.

    Anyway, when Spicer said that Hitler didn’t use chemical weapons, it is perfectly legitimate for people to infer that he thinks the concentration camps don’t count, or perhaps didn’t exist. It is entirely within the scope of the Anne Frank Center to counter such claptrap without suffering the tut-tut of dubious “accepted wisdom”.

  8. I bet Trumpy is chafing at the bit about having to stay in DC for the Egg Roll instead of goofing off playing golf in Florida like he has been most other weekends. That’s probably the real cause of the ‘lack of organisation’. Just let it slide and he can go goof off on the golf course.

  9. question @ #550 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 11:32 am

    Staff at the US Energy Department were reportedly told to stop using the phrases “climate change”, “emissions reduction” and “Paris Agreement” in all briefings and written communications, on the same day Donald Trump signed an executive order overturning most of Barack Obama’s regulations aimed at tackling global warming.

    So the term “global warming” is still ok? If so, good! – it’s about time we got rid of all the silly euphemisms.

  10. ides of march @ #558 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 11:56 am

    I am not even a big fan of the cross and said events, but I can see the damage it has caused.

    Neither am I … but I can see the good that has resulted. It comes down to whether you prefer a city where you can walk home at night after an evening’s entertainment, or one where you can drink till dawn if you want to. It’s a subjective thing.

  11. C@tmomma Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 12:03 pm
    Ides of March,
    Clover Moore is not a bad person, I acknowledge that but she is not capable of being Wonder Woman either

    ******************************************************

    It is way toooooooooooo crude to print here – and anyone sensitive to appalling foul language should not look it up – but Paul Keating made some excellent and brilliantly pithy comments about political opponents – but he also made a rather tasteless remark about Clover Moore and troopships . …… just part of the Keating legend …

  12. New Report Shatters The Trump Myth About Illegal Obama Administration Surveillance

    Despite claims and suggestions by Donald Trump and his pal, GOP House Intelligence Chairman Congressman Devin Nunes, a new report shatters the myth that Barack Obama or anybody in his administration – including Susan Rice – did anything illegal.

    At the end of the day, the president was just spewing nonsense on Twitter with no regard for the truth. Now he’s unsuccessfully scrambling to justify it.

    Will he finally admit that he was simply pushing a lie? Don’t count on it.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/11/report-shatters-trump-myth-illegal-obama-administration-surveillance.html

  13. FISA Warrant Bombshell Amps Up Calls For Special Prosecutor To Immediately Investigate Trump

    Calls are growing for an immediate special prosecutor to be appointed after it was disclosed a FISA warrant was obtained to monitor Trump adviser Carter Page.

    The FISA warrant means that a judge ruled that there was probable cause that a member of Trump’s campaign was an agent of Russia. This is the connection that many have been awaiting. The Russia scandal is no longer about circumstantial evidence, smoke but no fire.

    Expect calls to grow for a special prosecutor to investigate Trump’s ties to Russia in the coming days

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/11/fisa-warrant-bombshell-amps-calls-special-prosecutor-immediately-investigate-trump.html

  14. @ Player One – can you please explain how a city with it’s binge drinking and violence concentrated in one small area is inherently less safe to walk around in than one where the same amount of drinking and violence is spread over a great area?

  15. Tony Fitzgerald adds his voice to those calling for a federal ICAC

    “Politicians will find it impossible to regain public trust unless they behave like normal, honourable people: treat everyone equally, tell the truth, explain decisions, disclose any direct or indirect benefits for themselves or their allies and do not:

    mislead or deceive or withhold material information unless it is in the public interest;
    have regard to any matter except the public interest when making decisions;
    spend public money for any purpose except the public benefit; or
    directly or indirectly use public office or information gained in the course of public office for personal or political benefit.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/politicians-with-a-winning-at-all-costs-mentality-are-damaging-australia-20170411-gvif0c.html

    Good luck with that.

  16. Very good

    “Welcome to Southwest, where we beat our competitors…not our customers.” – the announcer on this #Southwest flight is SAVAGE. pic.twitter.com/LIG9LiVfvG
    — Patrick Quinn (@PatrickQuinnTV) April 11, 2017

  17. re Clover Moore

    Here’s is her stance on Lock Out laws. She does not simply “oppose them”. She thinks for example selective venues should be exempt, as is that rotten den of iniquity the Star Casino.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-04/clover-moore-says-lockout-laws-need-relaxing-for-some-venues/7296178

    Murdoch and the Libs despise here. The Telegraph has run a relentless and disgraceful dishonest campaign against here. The Libs have even changed the law to try and get rid of here so they have unfettered rule of the city. That surely speaks for itself. If you want to know what Sydney would look like without her look at Barangaroo (save the headland park) which was excised so they could run rampant. Massive overdevelopment, paltry ill considered public space and facilities, and Packer’s Casino stuck like a giant phallus, a constant reminder of their own lack, is what you get, against all planning rules and sensible public policy, and stuck on public land.

    She was just reelected with a 17% swing to herself, leaving Abbott’s sister in the dust. Close to Wonder Woman in my book.

    +1 what Ides said.

  18. Kevjohnno

    Taylor was former Clinton staffer and involved in presidential campaigns. He is good friends with Rick Wilson, who is a GOP operative who writes for Daily Beast and makes regular appearances on MSNBC etc.

  19. P1

    I think the two things you are equating are silly. Many people now report the cross is less safe at night because there is very little activity.

  20. PhoenixRed

    Trump and his cronies are doing distraction in every direction, whilst they carry on with their agenda. My vibe is that They are doing everything to get in place their dirty deals, before he resigns knowing that he is in for the chop. Trump is and always has been a crook, mobster and perverted creep.

  21. Al Pal

    At present I am inclined to think that Trump would resign before any impeachment proceedings. Admittedly I am getting impatient. I wish he would depart the scene asap. He is such a disgusting person that I would not put anything past him.

  22. ‘I think the two things you are equating are silly. Many people now report the cross is less safe at night because there is very little activity.’

    To what time of night are you referring, and who are these ‘many people’?

  23. “Taylor was former Clinton staffer and involved in presidential campaigns. He is good friends with Rick Wilson, who is a GOP operative who writes for Daily Beast and makes regular appearances on MSNBC etc.”
    So he might have been an insider 2oyrs ago and now he gets titbits from media friends. That about qualifies him for the ABC version of Insiders but doesn’t fit any other definition of the word that I know of.

  24. Ides of March @ #580 Wednesday, April 12th, 2017 – 12:57 pm

    Many people now report the cross is less safe at night because there is very little activity.

    I think that might be more accurately phrased as:

    “Many people now believe the cross is less safe at night, and they’ve assumed this is because there is very little activity”

    Which isn’t to endorse one side or the other. But anecdotal evidence is…anecdotal.

  25. VE; I would have thought that is self evident – if i know 90% of the violence is concentrated in just one place then i can (with a high probability) expect to be much safer if i use other places.
    If the violence is spread throughout a city then i would have no confidence that i can go anywhere in peace.
    It doesn’t mean that there is zero violence in the other places, just an expectation of far less of it.
    Conversely if i decide to go to the one hot spot then i would have a heightened expectation of violence.

  26. @ Boolean – you are agreeing with me. P1 thinks having violence spread around the entire city is safer, I disagree.

    @ P1 – the area of the lockout law is small in relation to the size of Sydney and outlying areas (such as the Blue Mountains) where people used to ‘commute in’ to the lockout area from.

  27. Afternoon all. Yet more evidence of the scandalously bad state of decision making on transport infrastructure in Australia (NSW). NSW Liberals are proceeding with WestConnex, a $10+ billion freeway in the inner west, but delaying previously promised rail improvements. So now Google are pulling out of a major development because the rail access is not there.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/google-pulls-out-of-bays-precinct-delivering-blow-to-nsw-government-20170411-gvisws.html

    At some point the Liberal party “brains trust” need to start to understand that not everybody travels into the city by BMW limo, and that not everybody wants to, including virtually none under 40. How much are NSW taxpayers on the hook for if these freeways don’t get enough people paying their tolls?

  28. voice endeavour @ #588 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 1:21 pm

    @ Boolean – you are agreeing with me. P1 thinks having violence spread around the entire city is safer, I disagree.
    @ P1 – the area of the lockout law is small in relation to the size of Sydney and outlying areas (such as the Blue Mountains) where people used to ‘commute in’ to the lockout area from.

    The statistics show the lockout laws have reduced violent assaults overall across the entire state – i.e. they have not simply “shifted” crime from one area to another.

  29. Keane in Crikey today

    Even as Malcolm Turnbull and his ministers warn against the rising tide of protectionism, his government is rapidly becoming the most protectionist since the Fraser era, with the way being prepared to hand a $900 million concessional loan to the corrupt, tax-dodging Indian company Adani for its unviable Carmichael coal mine project.
    The cheap loan to fund the rail line needed to connect the mine with port facilities would come from the government’s National Party boondoggle fund, the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, which lacks even the most basic accountability mechanisms and has minimal staff. There would be no assessment role for Infrastructure Australia, which is expressly designed to assess major infrastructure projects on a national and regional basis, and certainly no role for a body like the Productivity Commission.
    Turnbull claims the project will create “tens of thousands of jobs”, which even The Australian pointed out was wrong. The company itself has admitted the mine and rail project would create less than 1500 jobs, while the Queensland Resources Council has suggested 2400 jobs.
    Even accepting Turnbull’s fictional claim that 20,000 jobs would be created by the Carmichael project, the loan would amount to a cost of $45,000 per job — three or four times what we used to spend a year keeping automotive workers employed, and with no guarantee of repayment even at the lower interest rate that Adani apparently needs to make the project viable. In reality, the loan is likely to support 1500 jobs at a cost of $600,000 each.
    For that amount, it’d be cheaper to give every family in Townsville an interest-free loan of $10,000 and tell them to do what they want with it.

    I think it’s time for me to do some retail therapy.

  30. GG Sean “Holocaust Centers” Spicer is the dumbest dumb shit in a White House chock full of them.”

    Ther’s a lot of competition for that title.

  31. @ P1 – we went over this before. There was a downwards trend in violent crime before lockout, the downwards trend continued at the same rate post lockout. To claim that as an endorsement of the lockout laws is not valid.

  32. I scanned a hard copy of the Daily Telecrap in a cafe at lunch. Here are the ‘highlights’:

    The front page is shared between an attack on the unemployed an an article all but announcing WW3 – “Malcolm warns unhinged Kim” – that sort of thing. The article on welfare is supported by an editorial which we were told was on page 14 but which was actually around page 23. It was billed as an ‘exclusive’, so it’s probably based on a drop / Budget leak from the PM’s or the Treasurer’s office. It’s too hard to fix the Budget so we can expect further attacks on welfare.

    There’s a virulent attack on a ‘cabal’ of acedemics, including Tim Anderson, for allegedly being sympathetic to Assad and his regime. It might be true but I’ll reserve judgement until I hear it from a reliable source.

    Page 3 is taken up with a picture of an attractive lady in a red bikini (Jessica Marais, whoever she might be) and some guy in budgie smugglers (not Tony Abbott).

    Miranda Devine wrote some drivel about the campaign against domestic violence hurting young boys.

    There’s stuff about football (the one we play in NSW where we pick up the ball and run with it).

  33. voice endeavour @ #593 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 1:39 pm

    There was a downwards trend in violent crime before lockout, the downwards trend continued at the same rate post lockout. To claim that as an endorsement of the lockout laws is not valid.

    This issue was specifically addressed in the analysis of the crime statistics pre- and post- lockout laws. Even when you take the downward trends into account, there was still a statistically significant decrease in violent crime attributable to the lockout laws.

    Anyway, as you point out, we are now just going over old ground again, so I’m ok to just leave it there.

  34. No wonder Murdochs rags are tanking with the drivel that’s in the Terrorgraph.Their headline story should be about how many they are sacking shortly.Not a whisper of it anywhere but the Guardian that I have seen so far.Thats the biggest news of the day.Imagine if it had been another industry that was cutting jobs.They would be all over it especially if was Labor to blame.
    Anyway its all Labors fault anyway that they’ve all lost their jobs according to the Fibs.

  35. “Cadbury’s would do anything to avoid being associated with Trump”. Cadbury were pretty chummy with Little Johnny and Tones, so I doubt they would have an aversion to the Donald. Terrible chocolate, anyway.

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