Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017

Detailed Newspoll breakdowns find older voters, regional areas and Western Australians turning particularly heavily against the Turnbull government.

If you’ll pardon me for being a day late with this one, The Australian has published the regular quarterly breakdowns of voting intention by state, age and gender (voting intention here, leadership ratings here), which suggest swings against the Coalition of 2% in South Australia, 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and just shy of 8% in Western Australia. The demographic breakdowns are interesting in showing particularly strong movement against the Coalition among the older age cohort (down 10% on the primary vote, compared with 7% overall) and those outside the capital cities (down 9%, compared with around half that in the capitals). The polling was drawn from all of Newspoll’s surveying through February and March, with an overall sample of 6943.

Late as usual, below is BludgerTrack updated with last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research. The state breakdowns in BludgerTrack are a little compromised at the moment in using a straight average of all polling since the election to determine each state’s deviation from the total, and is thus understating the recent movement against the Coalition in Western Australia. As of the next BludgerTrack update, which will be an expanded version featuring primary votes for each state, trend measures will be used.

Stay tuned for today's Essential Research results, with which this post will be updated early afternoon some time.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely on change in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, the Coalition leading 37% to 36% on the primary vote, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 8%.

The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have both leaders improving on last month – Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten is up three to 33% and down three to 46% – while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 38-26 to 39-28.

The government’s business tax cuts get the thumbs down, with 31% approving and 50% disapproving; only 20% believing the cut should extend to bigger businesses, with 60% deeming otherwise; and 57% thinking bigger business profits the more likely outcome of the cuts, compared with 26% for employing more workers.

On the question of whether various listed items were “getting better or worse for you and your family”, housing affordability, cost of electricity and gas and “the quality of political representation” emerged as the worst of a bad bunch.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

811 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017”

  1. Telstra getting left behind again as TPG plan to build a new mobile network.No wonder people think its called “Fucking Telstra”.The shareholders will join in that chorus today.Their shares are down 7%.

  2. More on the ON, ABC dummy spit.

    Burston and James Ashby, Pauline Hanson’s chief of staff and party secretary, have savaged the public broadcasters, accusing the ABC of leftwing bias after a Four Corners special on One Nation and SBS of having too much multicultural and LGBTI content.

    I’m shocked, the public’s multicultural broadcaster has content related to multiculturalism and other minority group’s issues.

    Who’d have thunk it!

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/12/cormann-stares-down-one-nations-demand-to-cut-600m-from-abc

  3. Disappointing the privatisation of LPI NSW.
    I can’t think oh anyone who thought it was a good idea. Wondering how hard it will be to get out of the lease.

  4. victoria Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 2:05 pm

    Kevjohnno

    You are so right. How bloody silly of me

    **********************************************
    Mensch/Schindler/Wilson/Taylor/Jester etc etc …… and many others have been extremely accurate not only in their predictions but the *quality* of information they have uncovered either by their own investigations or by the reliability of their ‘informants’ from all over the world …… grind it out, piece by piece, item by item investigative reporting that is streets ahead ahead of any news agency ….. I am sure their efforts will have a large bearing on the futures of Trump & Co ……and all the losers that seem to be part of the Trump WH team ….

    Keep at it Victoria ….

  5. I can’t think oh anyone who thought it was a good idea.

    It’s a fucking terrible idea. So bad it might rank as the worst idea ever from a Liberal Government. It’s that fucking bad. The costs of this idiocy will far outweigh the cash paid.

  6. @ Cupidstunt
    A lot of celebrities and others did try to emigrate from the US after Trump was elected. They wrongfully assumed that they’d be welcomed in any of the countries that anyone of significant means would want to live in.

    Source: my own imagination.

  7. The sad thing is that Senator Roberts is the inevitable result of the reality denial as basic SOP the right have engaged in for years, but not the end point.

    The only thing remarkable about Roberts is that he wasn’t elected as an LNP senator. He’d fit in without difficulty.

  8. PR,
    Of all the Communications and PR people to choose from Trump selected Spicer as the best person to communicate his message to the public.

  9. I see The Australian League of Rights, PHONy faction, have been hard at it today.

    You’d think that with Trump imploding they might pull back a little, learn from his mistakes.

    Nope, nope, nope.

    Mad as a bag full of cut snakes the lot of them. 🙂

  10. It’s a fucking terrible idea. So bad it might rank as the worst idea ever from a Liberal Government. It’s that fucking bad. The costs of this idiocy will far outweigh the cash paid.

    Could not agree more.

  11. Apparently the SA Labor government is also well down the track in planning to lease the SA Land Titles Office to a private operator. Despite anti-privatisation policies??

  12. ABC doing the goverment’s work.

    An analysis on the idea of superannuation, which completely ignores the 2nd order effects.

    A wave of new money will increase house prices.

    People are shortsighted. If given a lump sum, many will blow it on buying a more expensive house than they otherwise would. i.e. With a $200k deposit, you take on an 800k loan for a 1M property. With an extra $50k, you don’t take out a 750k loan for a 1M property, many people will take out a 1M loan for a 1.25 M property. So their repayments are higher, but they don’t have extra money to meet those repayments, and thus raise their risk of having the house repossessed.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-12/weighing-up-whether-to-dip-into-super-to-buy-a-house/8436304

  13. Adrian

    I agree with you that much of the daily political analysis we see on the ABC is pretty ordinary, but there are of layers of information about other things which are valuable, so I’m not entirely in accord with your anti-ABC attitude. Just sayin.

  14. The SA gov privatisation of the LTO doesnt go as far as the NSW plan. Much shorter lease and there are supposed to be a lot of safeguards and powerful oversight by the RG. And there is no doubt parts of the LTO (and the RGO) could be more efficient.

    It is still a bad idea. But Gas Power Plants and batteries arent cheap.

  15. Trump family centre stage as Syrian and North Korean crises unfold

    Washington: As the US seeks a footing in negotiations on two fraught global crises – Syria/Russia and North Korea/China – the Von Trump Family presidency has taken centre stage, with a presidential son daring Moscow to mess with his “tough” father

    Eric Trump, who now jointly runs the family business empire with his brother Donald Jnr, told reporters that Russian talk of war would not intimidate Donald Trump. There was “no one harder” than Trump if they “cross us”, he warned.

    http://www.thecourier.com.au/story/4595067/trump-family-centre-stage-as-syrian-and-north-korean-crises-unfold/?cs=5

  16. The tories – on track to making a dog’s breakfast out of another issue ?

    I agree super should be not be accessed prior to retirement, but why fan the issue in the first place ?

    But I like Scrott being made to look like a goose – yet again.

    Yawn.

    Malcolm Turnbull all but rules out unlocking super for housing

    Mumbai: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has all but ruled out allowing the use of superannuation to buy a house ahead of a crucial pre-budget meeting on Thursday.

    Speaking to reporters before flying home from India, Mr Turnbull said the debate about using super has “been going around and around for a long time” but he indicated he did not support it.

    “I have expressed fairly strong views about it in the past,” he said, a reference to his stated opposition to the idea.

    …Treasurer Scott Morrison and Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar are among those disposed towards the idea.

    Critics say the idea would result in a huge injection of savings being released quickly that would only blow up house prices further.

    The Coalition backbench has been squabbling for days over the concept.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/malcolm-turnbull-all-but-rules-out-unlocking-super-for-housing-20170412-gvjlwl

  17. $1b for a railine? That is a pretty sizable down-payment on a nuclear power station…. or whatever renewable combination and permutation power station takes yer fancy.

  18. Re Voice E @3:44PM: in fact, probably more likely, with many homeseekers having an extra $50k spending power, is that the price of the $1m house will be bid up to $1.1 to $1.2m. The hapless punter’s position will be little different, apart from being down $50k on retirement savings. Meanwhile, vendors are $100k – $200k better off (unless they in turn want to buy a bigger and better house).

  19. Dave

    Treasurer Scott Morrison and Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar are among those disposed towards the idea.

    So is that numbskull Canavan.

  20. Player One:
    I agree that exempting Star Casino is detrimental, so how does that make it good policy to exempt more such places??? (my emphasis)

    I’m afraid you have missed the point entirely, in fact got it arse up. You have to actually read the article, twice linked. It clearly refers to exemption considerations being given to licensees running safe venues, who earn the privilege, and need to retain it. There is no ‘more such places’ anyway, at least until Packer’s is built.

    Anyway, here’s the link again, third time lucky maybe:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-04/clover-moore-says-lockout-laws-need-relaxing-for-some-venues/7296178

  21. I thought Malcolm virtually ruled out accessing super for housing yesterday, although it’s still running as a hot issue. I thought that it might have been a case of no one, least of all his colleagues, pay much attention to him any more.

  22. At the time I had the impression that the effect of the first home buyers grant back in Howie’s days was a jacking up of prices as people had bigger deposits. No data just the impression I felt at the time.

  23. Good afternoon all,

    The list of minsters supporting the superannuation for housing idea is interesting. However, it is irrelevant. The more interesting aspect of this debate within government is whose names are missing from the supporters list. Cormann and Dutton oppose the policy therefore Turnbull will have to rule it out.

    Cheers.

  24. Lizzie
    “but there are of layers of information about other things which are valuable, so I’m not entirely in accord with your anti-ABC attitude. Just sayin.”
    Totally agree Adrian has a hatred of the ABC on anything.

  25. Lizzie

    So is that numbskull Canavan.

    He does stand out – even amongst his numbskull ‘fellows’.

    WTF do they get these tory parasites from – its so consistent.

    That massive Super underpayment issue again is woeful. Comments below the Guardian article are taking them all to the woodshed and rightly so

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/12/one-third-of-australians-are-being-underpaid-superannuation?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=221421&subid=7131394&CMP=ema_632

  26. Lizzie,

    I find it interesting Adani would push for a $900 million loan to build a rail link and then open it up to other miners. Why would you do that if the cost of the loan and the repayment of the loan is not being shared among these other miners but left up to Adani to carry on its own ?

    Makes no commercial sense to me unless the other mines would be paying Adani a user fee of some type.

    Cheers.

  27. Chris Richardson today in Press Gallery said it would be better if the govt stopped promising they could ‘do something’ about house prices, because whatever they do won’t make much difference, with interest rates so low.

  28. adrian @ #624 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 3:48 pm

    ‘ABC doing the goverment’s work.’
    Just as it ever was…

    I don’t think you’re having a good day today.
    1. Jason Clare appears on ABC Breakfast and no Govt Minister or even backbencher gets to appear. Clare did well and gained subsequent publicity.
    2. After your rant yesterday about me referring to P1 as him/her/it due to uncertainty about gender and you insisting it is a ‘she’, P1 post today insisting it has never revealed its gender. I use ‘it’ as I am not entirely convinced it is human and not a bot generating trolling posts from the bowels of the IPA or Menzies House.
    Have a nice day and keep on getting things wrong as you tend to do.

  29. Poroti

    Yes, I had had the impression that it was to be a single use, dedicated line. I think there is too much guessing going on. :shrugs shoulders emoticon:

  30. poroti @ #636 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 4:15 pm

    At the time I had the impression that the effect of the first home buyers grant back in Howie’s days was a jacking up of prices as people had bigger deposits. No data just the impression I felt at the time.

    I always got the impression it was to get people into a mortgage.

    People who have mortgages are less likely to foment revolution. They are also more likely to cling to their job with grim determination, and less likely to go on strike or agitate for better conditions out of fear of losing said job.

    What could be better than getting people into a situation like that before you start ramming home “industrial reform”?

  31. Lizzie:
    Anastacia seems to think that the “Adani” rail line is worth supporting because it will open the land up for others (miners?)

    Yes. Gina. Pay ’em $2 a day Gina. Big cool mint sized peal sporting Gina. Reinhart’s Aplha coal mine has been approved. It also happnes to be in the Galille basin.

    I obliquely referenced this earlier this morning.

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