Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017

Detailed Newspoll breakdowns find older voters, regional areas and Western Australians turning particularly heavily against the Turnbull government.

If you’ll pardon me for being a day late with this one, The Australian has published the regular quarterly breakdowns of voting intention by state, age and gender (voting intention here, leadership ratings here), which suggest swings against the Coalition of 2% in South Australia, 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and just shy of 8% in Western Australia. The demographic breakdowns are interesting in showing particularly strong movement against the Coalition among the older age cohort (down 10% on the primary vote, compared with 7% overall) and those outside the capital cities (down 9%, compared with around half that in the capitals). The polling was drawn from all of Newspoll’s surveying through February and March, with an overall sample of 6943.

Late as usual, below is BludgerTrack updated with last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research. The state breakdowns in BludgerTrack are a little compromised at the moment in using a straight average of all polling since the election to determine each state’s deviation from the total, and is thus understating the recent movement against the Coalition in Western Australia. As of the next BludgerTrack update, which will be an expanded version featuring primary votes for each state, trend measures will be used.

Stay tuned for today's Essential Research results, with which this post will be updated early afternoon some time.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely on change in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, the Coalition leading 37% to 36% on the primary vote, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 8%.

The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have both leaders improving on last month – Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten is up three to 33% and down three to 46% – while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 38-26 to 39-28.

The government’s business tax cuts get the thumbs down, with 31% approving and 50% disapproving; only 20% believing the cut should extend to bigger businesses, with 60% deeming otherwise; and 57% thinking bigger business profits the more likely outcome of the cuts, compared with 26% for employing more workers.

On the question of whether various listed items were “getting better or worse for you and your family”, housing affordability, cost of electricity and gas and “the quality of political representation” emerged as the worst of a bad bunch.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

811 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017”

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  3. poroti @ #636 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 4:15 pm

    At the time I had the impression that the effect of the first home buyers grant back in Howie’s days was a jacking up of prices as people had bigger deposits.

    Builders immediately put up their prices by the $10k, was what I read.

  5. **Builders immediately put up their prices by the $10k**
    Rule No1 on reading articles about housing policy – anything from the Master Builders Association, PCA or realestate agents is to be ignored.

  7. Too many typos. Sorry peoples. Off for a nano nap before some Bach tonight where I’m told one might find God. Which is unlikely. Any decent God is an atheist.

  8. itzadream @ #633 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 4:13 pm

    I’m afraid you have missed the point entirely, in fact got it arse up. You have to actually read the article, twice linked. It clearly refers to exemption considerations being given to licensees running safe venues, who earn the privilege, and need to retain it. There is no ‘more such places’ anyway, at least until Packer’s is built.

    I read it. From your article …

    Ms Moore said the aim was to balance safety with a vibrant night-time economy, which she believes has been damaged by the laws.

    So … Clover’s goal is to ‘balance’ the increased safety provided to the entire community by the lockout laws – something which is indisputable – against the financial ‘damage’ they do to a few liquor license holders.

    I don’t believe laws that have been demonstrated to be effective should be watered down just to trade off people’s safety for financial gain, and you apparently believe they should. We will obviously never agree on this, so why continue arguing?

  9. cupidstunt @ #604 #604 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 2:15 pm

    Telstra getting left behind again as TPG plan to build a new mobile network.No wonder people think its called “Fucking Telstra”.The shareholders will join in that chorus today.Their shares are down 7%.

    I have switched to Telstra mobile (via the Aldi version) because the coverage is better than any other organisation, and I often go where coverage is dodgy at the best, no matter who your provider is. Telstra just has a better coverage. It is, for example, the only provider on Flinders Island.

    And the Aldi prepaid plan is perfect for me.

  10. Lizzie
    ‘Adrian

    I agree with you that much of the daily political analysis we see on the ABC is pretty ordinary, but there are of layers of information about other things which are valuable, so I’m not entirely in accord with your anti-ABC attitude. Just sayin.’

    I basically agree, but it’s so far inferior to what it could or should be, which admittedly is partly due to budget cuts.
    Still, it’s much more enjoyable listening to S-Town podcast than ABC news and AM in the morning.

  12. Gough would be appalled to hear that the ALP will support Brandos’ motion to amend the Native Title Act top allow Adani to steal the land for their totally destructive & inappropriate coal mine.

  13. “I have expressed fairly strong views about it in the past,” he said,

    So going on his record of expressed fairly strong views in the past Malcolm will be telling all and sundry what a great idea super for housing is and how anyone who opposes it is a fool before the month is out

  15. Gichuhi ‘fell into’ politics after studying law

    Her hard-line position on welfare handouts could help the Government in its attempt to make budget savings — if she ends up on the Senate crossbench as expected.

    But Labor sources have told Lateline they don’t expect the Kenyan-born migrant to vote along Government lines as often as former senator Bob Day.

    …She said her Christian faith was the backbone of her political beliefs.

    Depends which religion she follows, if she’s against welfare…

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-11/who-is-lucy-gichuhi-from-kenya-to-possible-sa-senator/8433686

  16. https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/04/12/will-turnbull-pander-to-adani-with-900m-loan/ (possibly paywalled)

    Even accepting Turnbull’s fictional claim that 20,000 jobs would be created by the Carmichael project, the loan would amount to a cost of $45,000 per job — three or four times what we used to spend a year keeping automotive workers employed, and with no guarantee of repayment even at the lower interest rate that Adani apparently needs to make the project viable. In reality, the loan is likely to support 1500 jobs at a cost of $600,000 each.

  17. poroti @ #636 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 4:15 pm

    “At the time I had the impression that the effect of the first home buyers grant back in Howie’s days was a jacking up of prices as people had bigger deposits. ”

    Builders immediately put up their prices by the $10k, was what I read.
    .
    .
    .
    At the time I was a graduate accountant working for a large group of home building companies who had Australia wide land holdings and can confirm this happened. It was part of my job to sign the sales contract on behalf of the vendor.

  18. @ Lizzie

    I long ago learned the hard way that anyone who goes around declaring what a good Christian/Muslim/Jew etc. they are is not to be trusted under ANY circumstances.

  22. grimace Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 5:10 pm

    @ Lizzie

    I long ago learned the hard way that anyone who goes around declaring what a good Christian/Muslim/Jew etc. they are is not to be trusted under ANY circumstances.

    **************************************************
    As Jon Stewart said :
    Religion – it’s given people hope in a world torn apart by religion.

  24. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-11/who-is-lucy-gichuhi-from-kenya-to-possible-sa-senator/8433686

    She added she wouldn’t change a thing about the path her life has taken, despite the poverty she experienced as a child.

    “I think it was a rich life. Because this concept of poverty never existed in our mind,” she said. “That taught us to share. That taught us to care.”

    On one hand it looks like she won’t be supporting any pro-Centrelink measures, but on the other hand, does that make her a socialist-lite for believing in sharing?

  25. lizzie @ #671 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 5:13 pm

    I think this is what TheOz is referring to (my post above).
    http://www.theage.com.au/technology/consumer-security/microsoft-moves-quickly-to-patch-fully-exploiting-zeroday-word-bug-20170412-gvj8xg.html

    Thanks Lizzie, ≧◔◡◔≦
    I use MS Office 2016.
    My regular Microsoft updates did not pick up the update referenced.
    I had to enter Office and go to Account and the Office Updates Icon – Update now.
    My Office version has gone from Office 1702 (Build 7870-2031) to
    Office 1702 (Build 7870-2038).

  26. Employers ripping off workers to the tune of $100,000,000 per week ? This solution , amazingly from the USofA, sounds the go.

    “In prosecution of wage and hour violations, the stakes are getting personal. In several recent cases, the government has penalized company owners and officers for failing to pay overtime – imposing stiff fines and even imprisonment.

    In one case, the president of a Minnesota sheetrock company was sentenced to two years in jail and a potential fine of $3.3 million for intentionally underpaying employee overtime and union pension and benefit contributions.”

    http://www.accountingweb.com/aa/standards/employers-paying-the-penalty-for-wage-and-hour-violations

  31. The Drum is about Adani and 4 people all shouting at each other. Stephen Long, Warren Mundine, Bongiorno. Mundine is frankly an ass.

  35. Steve777
    It was only a partial quote. The full quote was…..

    ‘I have expressed fairly strong views about it in the past. However since selling my arse to the RWNJs to get the job I am , as with many things, no longer allowed to hold such views, let alone express them ,without their written permission.” he [Malcolm] said,

  38. Grimace
    Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 5:10 pm
    @ Lizzie
    I long ago learned the hard way that anyone who goes around declaring what a good Christian/Muslim/Jew etc. they are is not to be trusted under ANY circumstances.

    The Alabama governor who resigned in disgrace on Monday is a perfect example:

    MONTGOMERY, Ala. — As governor, Robert Bentley would quote the Bible before the Alabama Legislature and say that God had elevated him to the State Capitol. In his dermatology practice, in the city where he was a Baptist deacon, he sometimes witnessed to patients. And when he was a first-time candidate for statewide office, his campaign headquarters were often filled with volunteers from local churches.

    This is a state that knows well how mixing faith and politics can lead to disappointment.

    When Mr. Bentley on Monday resigned from office and pleaded guilty to two misdemeanors in the wake of the sex scandal that ended his 50-year marriage, his downfall reflected both enduring and contemporary challenges for evangelical voters.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/11/us/alabama-governor-robert-bentley-sex-scandal.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=1

  41. Never a truer word was spoken about Christian politicians:

    “The idea that moral hypocrisy hurts you among evangelical voters is not true, if you’re sound on all of the fundamentals,” said Wayne Flynt, an ordained Baptist minister and one of Alabama’s pre-eminent historians. “Being sound on the fundamentals depends on what the evangelical community has decided the fundamentals have become. At this time, what is fundamental is hating liberals, hating Obama, hating abortion and hating same-sex marriage.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/11/us/alabama-governor-robert-bentley-sex-scandal.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=2

  42. Steve777
    Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 6:11 pm
    Malcom’s going to threaten to shirtfront some world leader any time now.

    He could threaten to take the scissors to Kim Jong Un’s fairly strange trademark haircut.

  43. Lizzie

    Could have been better said –

    Maybe “Speaking on Jon Faine’s morning radio program for the first time since her fathers death ..”

  44. C@tmomma @ #691 Wednesday, April 12th, 2017 – 6:35 pm

    Being sound on the fundamentals depends on what the evangelical community has decided the fundamentals have become. At this time, what is fundamental is hating liberals, hating Obama, hating abortion and hating same-sex marriage.”

    Which is why engaging with them is basically impossible. They don’t live in a world where anything needs to make rational, or even political, sense.

  45. There are good Christians, like Greensborough Growler, and there are Con artists, who usually try to get into positions of power and control, like that Alabama fraud and various of the Christian Child Sex Abusers. Plus a few of the Lame Gay Churchy Loser crowd in Australia.

  46. Lizzie
    Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 5:44 pm
    Mundine is frankly an ass.

    Just catching the replay on 24, you’re too kind to Mundine Lizzie.

  50. Mikehilliard

    Grrrr. Mundine imposed himself on the discussion and made nonsense of it. The others were mostly shouting at him. Stephen Long has apparently been following the story and might be worth chasing up.

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