Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017

Detailed Newspoll breakdowns find older voters, regional areas and Western Australians turning particularly heavily against the Turnbull government.

If you’ll pardon me for being a day late with this one, The Australian has published the regular quarterly breakdowns of voting intention by state, age and gender (voting intention here, leadership ratings here), which suggest swings against the Coalition of 2% in South Australia, 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and just shy of 8% in Western Australia. The demographic breakdowns are interesting in showing particularly strong movement against the Coalition among the older age cohort (down 10% on the primary vote, compared with 7% overall) and those outside the capital cities (down 9%, compared with around half that in the capitals). The polling was drawn from all of Newspoll’s surveying through February and March, with an overall sample of 6943.

Late as usual, below is BludgerTrack updated with last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research. The state breakdowns in BludgerTrack are a little compromised at the moment in using a straight average of all polling since the election to determine each state’s deviation from the total, and is thus understating the recent movement against the Coalition in Western Australia. As of the next BludgerTrack update, which will be an expanded version featuring primary votes for each state, trend measures will be used.

Stay tuned for today's Essential Research results, with which this post will be updated early afternoon some time.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely on change in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, the Coalition leading 37% to 36% on the primary vote, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 8%.

The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have both leaders improving on last month – Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten is up three to 33% and down three to 46% – while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 38-26 to 39-28.

The government’s business tax cuts get the thumbs down, with 31% approving and 50% disapproving; only 20% believing the cut should extend to bigger businesses, with 60% deeming otherwise; and 57% thinking bigger business profits the more likely outcome of the cuts, compared with 26% for employing more workers.

On the question of whether various listed items were “getting better or worse for you and your family”, housing affordability, cost of electricity and gas and “the quality of political representation” emerged as the worst of a bad bunch.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

811 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017”

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  1. A R,
    The Conservative ‘Christians’ (and isn’t their religion just a means to their end of controlling peoples’ minds and bodies?), have their agenda and they are damn well going to get it implemented.

    If you chop one down, like weeds they will spring up again and again, advancing their agenda by inches if necessary when the going gets tough. And the gormless masses who swallow their garbage like mother’s milk never stop to ask any of those questions which occur to those of us not hoodwinked by their snake oil.

    That is why, as sure as night follows day, another Evangelical Christian will follow in the footsteps of Robert Bentley, because you can’t elect a heathen now, can you?

    *Sigh*

  2. lizzie @ #690 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 6:30 pm

    http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/tv-comedy/john-clarkes-daughter-says-nothing-could-have-been-done-to-save-her-father-20170412-gvjj6r.html

    Speaking for the first time since his death on Jon Faine’s morning radio program, Ms Clarke said while he father’s death came as a shock, he was doing what he loved with her mother and in the company of a qualified medic who couldn’t possibly have saved his life.

    There seems to be a strange reluctance to say what caused his death.
    If it was heart attack or a stroke, why not just say so?

  4. Bemused,
    If it was heart attack or a stroke, why not just say so?

    I think I heard in one report only, that it was a massive heart attack that killed John Clarke.

    Frankly, when I saw the weather that Victoria was experiencing on Sunday I thought it was madness for a 68 year old man to go hiking up a mountain in it. But then, everyone thinks they are invincible. Until they aren’t.

  6. I haven’t see the quotes, but to be fair to our leader, the press oftern over eggs comments made by our PM , whoever they might be, when they comment on other world leaders.
    Turnbull could have said ‘xxx should do this’, and it becomes ‘PM warns leader’.
    However we are talking about a Liberal PM….

  8. c@tmomma @ #704 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 6:57 pm

    Bemused,
    If it was heart attack or a stroke, why not just say so?
    I think I heard in one report only, that it was a massive heart attack that killed John Clarke.
    Frankly, when I saw the weather that Victoria was experiencing on Sunday I thought it was madness for a 68 year old man to go hiking up a mountain in it. But then, everyone thinks they are invincible. Until they aren’t.

    That was what I suspected. So why be coy about it?
    Speaking up about it when such a much loved and prominent man dies can provide a valuable message to others to be aware of heart disease.
    There is nothing wrong with a healthy person his age or considerably older going bush walking.

  9. Why does anyone, other than his family, need to know what caused John Clarke’s death?
    Dealing with his loss is enough to be going on with.

  11. monica lynagh @ #709 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 7:05 pm

    Why does anyone, other than his family, need to know what caused John Clarke’s death?
    Dealing with his loss is enough to be going on with.

    An unexpected death invites speculation.
    Best to reveal the truth, there is nothing to be ashamed of.
    And it can be used to serve as a warning to others and maybe save lives.

  14. Who cares what “natural causes” did it and so what if he thought he was invincible and anyway what evidence do we have of that ? He was doing what he loved, tramping (hiking) with friends and family photographing birds. He could have stayed home and done nothing and been just as dead in 2 months time, we will never know.

    All I do know that I shall miss the bastard heaps. He has been making me laugh and think since I was a young teenager and now there is a space where he occupied in my mind.

  15. It might be selfish but I am always curious to know what caused the sudden death of someone not that old (i.e. just a bit older than me).

  18. poroti @ #714 Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 7:11 pm

    Who cares what “natural causes” did it and so what if he thought he was invincible and anyway what evidence do we have of that ? He was doing what he loved, tramping (hiking) with friends and family photographing birds. He could have stayed home and done nothing and been just as dead in 2 months time, we will never know.
    All I do know that I shall miss the bastard heaps. He has been making me laugh and think since I was a young teenager and now there is a space where he occupied in my mind.

    If his health problem had been diagnosed and treated he might have been with us a lot longer.

  20. Woody Allen once said “I know I will die. I just don’t want to be there when it happens”.
    It seems bemused is a Woody acolyte.
    Posting in PB beyond the grave is not going to happen.

  21. I dunno, it just leaves me cold, the poking around into the cause of some famous person dying.
    If it’s natural causes, well, it’s going to get you.
    I just can’t see any public interest in digging around in that.
    I would have thought there is more public interest in the increased incidence of viruses in the recent past. I’m sure DTT would be. Sardonic emoticon here.

  22. Woody Allan also said “I don’t want to achieve immortality through my work; I want to achieve immortality through not dying. I don’t want to live on in the hearts of my countrymen; I want to live on in my apartment.”

  23. It was reported that Clarke collapsed while walking. Collapse can be caused by a variety of things, most likely a thrombosis of some kind. I imagine there will be an autopsy, as is usually the case following a sudden death. The cause of death will determined and published.

  24. He was doing what he loved, tramping (hiking) with friends and family photographing birds. He could have stayed home and done nothing and been just as dead in 2 months time, we will never know.

    Yep that’s how I look at it too. Well said poroti.

  29. If you gotta go my maternal grandfather did it the best ever . He drove down to the big smoke to get a check up and while down there caught up with his kids,grand kids and great grand kids. Went back home and a few days later after spending the morning doing one of his great loves, looking after the fruit,vege ,flower garden went for his usual midday snooze in his armchair by the window where the warm sun came in. Never woke up. Terrible for my grandmother to find him but all the family had got to see him and he went to sleep in a place he loved after doing what he loved.

  30. Geez, there’s some ridiculous stuff being said here about what is just a natural curiosity about how a much admired public identity died.

  33. ML
    Yep.
    Poroti
    I did answer your query in relation to NZ experiences, in case you missed it.

    As for 68 year olds who pin their ears back and go for it, who is this 68 year old who pins his ears back and goes for it, to cast the first stone at Clarke?

    If you die doing what you love doing what could possibly go wrong?

    Let the stayabeds stay a bed in craven fear of what might be.

    You live, you die.

    Seize the carp, I say.

    There is one thing to be said for some of the commentary above and elsewhere.

    Were Clarke around he would have enjoyed a mordant chuckle at the earnest silliness of much of it.

  34. On Tuesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed the typical Australian is “Claire”, a 38-year-old Australian born Anglo-Saxon woman, who is married with two children and owns a three bedroom house.

    But a BuzzFeed News analysis of federal politicians’ biographies and pecuniary interest registers has revealed that the typical politician is a long way from the typical Aussie.

    Let’s call him “Andrew” (because there are eight Andrews in federal parliament).

    He’s 51 years old and was born in Australia. His parents were born here too, and his family has English ancestry. He’s got two degrees, including a law degree.

    Andrew’s married with two children and owns two homes.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/aliceworkman/meet-andrew?bffbozpol&utm_term=.exXErJlnpP#.yjVGBRxD2y

    LOL!

  36. I should add that my maternal grandfather’s death made such a strong impression on ,me because of the almost opposite nature of my paternal grandfather’s death from bowel cancer. long drawn out painful .The doctors said they did not know how he was still alive at one point and he lasted nearly another 6 months. Stubborn stubborn resistance and agony for him and the family to watch as be withered into such a husk.

  40. Boerwar

    I was wondering what had become of you. Nice to see you pop up again. Were you just taking a break from the cut and thrust of PB or have you been away?

  42. Darn
    A fortnight in New Zealand. Family wedding (we now have a New Zealander in our extended family… how good is that?) and a couple of weeks moving around mainly enjoying touristy things.

  47. Boerwar, from your post earlier, looks like I had much better weather when we were there in December (perfect), compared to the last couple of weeks.

    The country, both the people and the geography are wonderful.

  49. JR
    We were in Coromandel when it received amounts of around 200mm in a day or so.
    The Thames/Coromandel Road was closed by slips behind us and was taking large efforts to re-open. We had to get out by Whitiango… when that road finally opened.
    Re: geography, yep. What makes it really exciting is that you don’t really know when the geography around you is next going to be re-arranged.
    Re: people, yep. People were pleasant and helpful. This lasted to the plane ride home where Maori were helping us with our pronunciation. Such fun.

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