Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017

Detailed Newspoll breakdowns find older voters, regional areas and Western Australians turning particularly heavily against the Turnbull government.

If you’ll pardon me for being a day late with this one, The Australian has published the regular quarterly breakdowns of voting intention by state, age and gender (voting intention here, leadership ratings here), which suggest swings against the Coalition of 2% in South Australia, 3% in New South Wales and Victoria, 6% in Queensland and just shy of 8% in Western Australia. The demographic breakdowns are interesting in showing particularly strong movement against the Coalition among the older age cohort (down 10% on the primary vote, compared with 7% overall) and those outside the capital cities (down 9%, compared with around half that in the capitals). The polling was drawn from all of Newspoll’s surveying through February and March, with an overall sample of 6943.

Late as usual, below is BludgerTrack updated with last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research. The state breakdowns in BludgerTrack are a little compromised at the moment in using a straight average of all polling since the election to determine each state’s deviation from the total, and is thus understating the recent movement against the Coalition in Western Australia. As of the next BludgerTrack update, which will be an expanded version featuring primary votes for each state, trend measures will be used.

Stay tuned for today's Essential Research results, with which this post will be updated early afternoon some time.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Absolutely on change in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, the Coalition leading 37% to 36% on the primary vote, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 8%.

The poll includes Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have both leaders improving on last month – Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten is up three to 33% and down three to 46% – while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 38-26 to 39-28.

The government’s business tax cuts get the thumbs down, with 31% approving and 50% disapproving; only 20% believing the cut should extend to bigger businesses, with 60% deeming otherwise; and 57% thinking bigger business profits the more likely outcome of the cuts, compared with 26% for employing more workers.

On the question of whether various listed items were “getting better or worse for you and your family”, housing affordability, cost of electricity and gas and “the quality of political representation” emerged as the worst of a bad bunch.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

811 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: February-March 2017”

Comments Page 8 of 17
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  1. **William, are you doing a Pollbludger group subscription this year?**
    Jeebus Ringo. For a while there it seemed Pollbludger was doing a massive group unsubscription.

  2. April 15, Saturday coming, is the 105th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung, founder of Nth Korea and grandfather of the looney Kim Jong-un. As good a day as any for some national fireworks of the nuclear test kind.

    With the US Navy off the Korean peninsula and a preemptive show strike on Syria under their belt, the argy bargy is heating up. Preemptive strike is not an American monopoly is the word from Nth Korea. No doubt responding to Malcolm’s call to pull their finger out, the Chinese are reported to be amassing troops on the border.

    This is happening very early, too early, in Trump’s insecure tenure. And on a golf day.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/north-korea-tensions-reports-of-chinese-troops-on-border-20170411-gviljw.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/11/north-korea-ready-for-war-us-navy-redeploys

  5. This is happening very early, too early, in Trump’s insecure tenure.

    I just hope daretotread is reading all of this and feeling very, very sheepish!

  6. player one @ #278 #278 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 5:16 pm

    don @ #266 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 4:38 pm

    That would seem to be a real advantage of wind and solar – there is no marginal cost of production from fuel, so they can feed in to the grid no matter how low the price goes, and still make money.

    Nonsense. Wind and solar have ongoing costs, just as every form of generation does. The LCOE of wind and solar are coming down, and are within the range of the LCOE of various other forms of generation. This is making it worthwhile investing in them for peaking power. But this does not include any storage costs. When you add these costs, they are still uneconomic compared to other sources for baseload power.

    Not nonsense at all.

    You have missed the point. There is no marginal cost of producing electricity from solar or wind. The sun shines, the wind blows, electricity is produced. You’ve got the damn things, right? The marginal cost is zero, just like the panels on my roof. If the sun shines, great, I produce power for myself or the grid, it costs me nothing. If it doesn’t, no big deal.

    From my point of view, I have zero ongoing costs. I have no storage.

    The suppliers are “gaming” the system to maximize their profits, not availability or reliability.

    Yes, when did I suggest otherwise?

    Bastards.

  10. barney in go dau @ #299 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 6:28 pm

    citizen @ #290 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 6:11 pm

    Abbott might like to explain to Woolworths CEO why electricity prices have risen so much since he abolished the ‘carbon tax’.

    Woolworths chief executive Brad Banducci recently warned that soaring electricity prices were a “material issue” and would lead to higher prices on the shelves. At $360 million a year, electricity is Woolworths’ third largest cost, behind labour and rent.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/retail/supermarket-prices-to-rise-on-soaring-electricity-meat-produce-prices-20170411-gvin14.html

    Plenty of room for solar panels on their roofs.

    The problem for most Woolies stores is that they don’t control the roof, the shopping centre owner does. The real estate agents that manage shopping centres are generally difficult and unpleasant people to work with – they don’t give a fuck about their tenants, and won’t lift a finger unless its to their own benefit.

    Also, shopping centres generally have their own embedded networks and in Western Australia are allowed to on sell electricity to their tenants at a profit (don’t know about other states). The real estate agents have no interest in taking on the expense of solar panels, or assuming the risks under a solar PPA.

  11. Cat, that one was removed in China, not surprisingly​. Don’t know why the Germans were upset with some teeth in the microphone one.

  12. Cud Chewer at #308:

    Player One says..

    Nonsense.

    That’s a good start. If Player One wanted a calm, discursive, scholarly discussion, she doesn’t help by using this sort of language, but I digress..

    Wind and solar have ongoing costs, just as every form of generation does.

    This is what I mean by intellectual dishonesty. Don made the comment that once you have wind or solar, the excess power is effectively at zero cost. In other words, it favours the market entry of energy storage. Now, of course it costs money to maintain these systems, but does it cost more money to have these systems output useful energy (at a very low price) rather than simply not output energy at all? Well the simple answer is – effectively no. There is almost no extra maintenance cost incurred in doing so. The fact that Player One is trying to impute this simply shows the depth of intellectual dishonest she constantly uses in her arguments.

    Great post in its entirety.

  14. C@t
    As GG says I’m part of the problem, so save your empathy for more worthy folk.
    I don’t need Ice to be unmanageable, but I’m yet to hear folks in my roof space.

    Next stop. Anger management.

    Plus, who’d be a pharmacist these days!

  15. Alternative fact:

    The US airstrike on Syria’s Shayrat airbase Friday destroyed about 20% of the Syrian government’s operational aircraft, Secretary of Defense James Mattis claimed in a statement Monday.

    “The Syrian government has lost the ability to refuel or rearm aircraft at Shayrat airfield and at this point, use of the runway is of idle military interest,” Mattis said, describing the strike as a “measured response.”

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/11/politics/syria-mattis-trump-strike-damage/index.html

    Just imagine if it were actually true. Four more missile strikes and no more Air Assad. If it were really that simple, you can bet Trump would be all over it.

  17. don @ #362 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 8:49 pm

    Cud Chewer at #308:

    Player One says..
    Nonsense.
    That’s a good start. If Player One wanted a calm, discursive, scholarly discussion, she doesn’t help by using this sort of language, but I digress..
    Wind and solar have ongoing costs, just as every form of generation does.
    This is what I mean by intellectual dishonesty. Don made the comment that once you have wind or solar, the excess power is effectively at zero cost. In other words, it favours the market entry of energy storage. Now, of course it costs money to maintain these systems, but does it cost more money to have these systems output useful energy (at a very low price) rather than simply not output energy at all? Well the simple answer is – effectively no. There is almost no extra maintenance cost incurred in doing so. The fact that Player One is trying to impute this simply shows the depth of intellectual dishonest she constantly uses in her arguments.

    Great post in its entirety.

    Sadly, wrong.

  18. player one @ #332 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 7:54 pm

    c@tmomma @ #312 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 7:02 pm

    BIGD,
    Plenty of room for solar panels on their roofs.
    Well observed about Woolworths.
    Same, same Coles.

    Before you get too excited, remember that commercial and industrial users typically pay 1/2 or perhaps even just 1/4 of what a residential user pays for electricity.
    For these users, rooftop solar is not yet economic.

    More uninformed rubbish from P1 on the price of electricity.

    I’ve seen the bill for one of the largest users of electricity in Perth and the total cost of peak energy is more than half of what a residential customer pay. Off peak electricity is a different issue.

    What P1 in her rush to make herself appear smart is actually doing is demonstrating just how ignorant she is of electricity matters. What she clearly does not know is that very large users of electricity provide substantial amounts of their own electrical infrastructure at their own cost. The large electricity user I mentioned earlier in my post is responsible for providing and maintaining their own distribution substation and embedded network, a task which is not cheap.

  19. grimace @ #363 Tuesday, April 11th, 2017 – 8:52 pm

    barney in go dau @ #319 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 7:17 pm

    greensborough growler @ #313 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 7:04 pm

    Ah, CC writes so much with so much passion and no one is ever going to read it.
    GFY CC.

    I did.
    It was well written and made some very good points about the debate.

    I read it too and agree it was valuable contribution. Much more valuable than anything GG has come out with recently.

    I’m happy for you to justify the abuse. Or are you just another abusive male filled with too much cum for your own rational thought processes.

  20. Statement from the AEC on the vacant SA Senate spot
    Updated: 11 April 2017
    The AEC will conduct a special count in Adelaide on Thursday, 13 April 2017 to identify which candidate is entitled to be elected to the Senate from South Australia, to the place left vacant by the disqualification of Mr Robert (Bob) Day by the High Court decision of 5 April.

    This follows the provision of directions today by Her Honour Justice Gordon of the High Court specifying how the special count of votes will be conducted.

    The special count will not require the manual handling of any Senate ballot papers, as the AEC will use the voter preference data already taken from the ballot papers of votes cast at the 2016 South Australian Senate election to complete the special count.

    The special count will involve voter preferences for the now disqualified candidate Mr Day being disregarded, with these voter preferences now to be counted to the next preferred candidate recorded on each ballot paper, with subsequent preferences to be treated as altered accordingly. Once this is completed, a distribution of preferences will then occur.

    Under the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 candidates who contest federal elections cannot be present to observe the process. Candidates are, however, able to appoint a scrutineer to observe the process on their behalf.

    Media or other members of the public will not be permitted to observe the special count.
    Once the special count is completed, the Australian Electoral Officer for South Australia will provide the result to the High Court of Australia for its consideration. Accordingly, the AEC will be issuing no public announcement of the result of the special count while this matter is before the Court.
    Background
    On 5 April 2017, the High Court of Australia sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns determined that Mr Day was disqualified from nominating as a candidate for the 2016 South Australian Senate election due to the operation of section 44 of the Constitution.

    The Court ordered that the vacancy created by Mr Day’s disqualification should be filled by a special count of the votes cast at the 2016 election with directions necessary to give effect to that special count to be made by a single Justice.

  21. cud chewer @ #337 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 8:04 pm

    Before you get too excited, remember that commercial and industrial users typically pay 1/2 or perhaps even just 1/4 of what a residential user pays for electricity.
    For these users, rooftop solar is not yet economic.

    More intellectual dishonesty from Player One. The post specifically talked about Coles and Woolies, not large industrial users. Its generally the very large, power intensive industrial users that get the discount rates.
    Besides, the assertion is that solar isn’t cheap enough. This isn’t the case any more. And shopping malls are precisely the place where solar plus battery storage makes good sense.

    A while back I did some PPA pricing for a large customer who wanted to roll out rooftop PV on a number of their premises (individual systems were 100kW – 300kW) and the cost under a 15 year PPA was just under $0.10 per kWh including all grid protection, with the client to take ownership of the system at no cost at the end of the PPA.

  22. C@

    Seriously, I met this idiot because I was wanting to swap a queen size bed outfit for a king size single. He’s got my phone number and my address because we traded last Monday. Since then it’s been a nightmare.

    I just let Ginnie, my breast-tumoured dog back in (hey, BB, she’s still alive and kicking), after her nightly constitutional, and I was very wary. Quick! Get in! You just don’t know with these fkers.

    I don’t like feeling unsafe.

    Fortunately the dickhead rang the local police and complained that I wasn’t helping him. And they’re also keeping an eye out for me.

    Your situation sounded a lot more scary than mine. Thankfully your husband was on hand in your situation; it could have turned nasty, despite our empathy.

  23. C@t

    Do you mean tank man? Sydney Theatre Company has just finished its run of Chimerica (China-America), an interesting play looking at the (fictional) events of the day and what happened to tank man. I’d spill the beans but that would be a spoiler. A brilliant production, very much revolving around that photo.

  24. barney in go dau @ #319 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 7:17 pm

    greensborough growler @ #313 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 7:04 pm

    Ah, CC writes so much with so much passion and no one is ever going to read it.
    GFY CC.

    I did.
    It was well written and made some very good points about the debate.

    I read it too and it was a masterly analysis of P1’s nonsense and her argumentative style, a mix of mis-information, snark and abuse. And yet she whinges endlessly about others supposedly abusing her. Spare me!

    I was never patient enough to attempt such an analysis and refutation and long ago dismissed her as PB’s ‘Village Idiot’. That was before the energy debate and before the Census ratbaggery.
    Well done CC!

  25. Vogon Poet,
    Censorship is a strange beast, and very selective about why it censors and who. Like, I mean, as if the Chinese people themselves don’t remember Tiannamen Square!

    I think that it would be smarter for the Chinese hierarchy to let it become part of the accepted history. Smarter still to keep distracting the people with shiny things so that it just fades from their collective memory. 🙂

  26. ItzaDream,
    As I will not be rousing myself from my cozy eyrie atop a hill on the Central Coast so as to go and see a play at the Sydney Theatre Company, I think your spoiler is safe with me. 🙂

  29. ok C@t, just between us. Tank man is discovered living in the US under an alias and as the events of that day unfold as we jump back and forth, the climax builds up to what was in the shopping bag – his wife’s clothes, which he had just collected after identifying her body. There was no fear left in him.

  31. About the housing discussion earlier

    As you know, my son and DIL recently returned from Germany where they rented for about 4 years. As mentioned earlier, by another poster, sorry forgotten who it was, when renting in Germany, you do have to provide the kitchen sink, among other things.

    When they left, they advertised their apartment, holus bolus, i.e,, fully furnished and the kitchen sink, which was readily snapped up.

    They’re now renting here, and have no intention of buying their own home; they’re so used to the Euro experience, it’s as if the Great Australian Dream has passed them by.

    I think my only issue with renting is not being able to “modify” without permission. Other than that it’s like not owning a car, but taking a taxi, or renting one for the odd trip.

  32. Kezza2

    We’re all in the same boat, aren’t we

    How far do you want to take this? We are all in the same boat; we are all the same; we are all we.

  34. kezza2 @ #377 Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 9:32 pm

    Why do so many commenters think Player One is female?
    Because P1 is polite? Or did I miss an admission, somewhere?

    More to the point, why do you think P1 is polite?
    I have been told that P1 is female but I have never see her(?) say so. I was referring to P1 as he/she/it and thereby upset the charming Adrian.

  36. Bemused
    Player One is polite to other posters.

    I’ve never seen a post where P1 denigrates another poster, but does have a comment to make about the content of a post, not the person.

    Very much unlike yourself.

  39. Interesting in the latest Lord Ascroft poll….
    “Do you think Britain is on the right track?”
    Bloody Scots are not happy… 🙂

  41. Lurker,

    The Pines Shopping Centre at Elanora on the Gold Coast ha2 roof top solar power.
    http://www.energymatters.com.au/commercial-solar/our-customers/pines-elanora/
    Woolworths and Coles are usually tenants – I don’t how that would affect their investment decision if they don’t own the building.

    Yeah that is a point. Coles and Woolies and BigW are usually tennants, but they usually end up with their own structurally separate part of the building with its own air conditioning plant etc. In any case there is a business model in offering shopping centres cheaper, reliable power and retailing the surplus.

  43. Why do so many commenters think Player One is female?

    Well, I used to use the default male for P1, but someone here got up me for doing that and told me she was female. As I said at the time, when someone is being an ass it tends to reinforce my stereotype that they are male 🙂

  45. One last thing.

    I’ve been reading a trilogy by Tom Rob Smith (now there’s a name) about the life and times of the fictional Leo Demidov, KGB officer, homicide detective, opium addict, among other things.

    I remarked the other day to the lender that Leo should have been killed off some time ago, because it was all getting a bit far-fetched.

    He remarked that I would then enjoy the healthy despatches of Game of Thrones.

    That may be so, but still, I’m curious to know why Leo’s wife, Raisa, was killed in New York.

  46. I’m sure they will one day, but that day is not yet. Nor is it close.

    As I said, Player One quite happily emits what amounts to assertions, without any attempt at justification or suitable reference.

  48. More uninformed rubbish from P1 on the price of electricity.

    I’ve seen the bill for one of the largest users of electricity in Perth and the total cost of peak energy is more than half of what a residential customer pay.

    Grimace, that concurs with what retailers tell me. There are large industrial users who do get a heavy discount, but again, this has nothing to do with big box retail and P1 was being intellectually dishonest again.

  50. CTar1

    Good to hear you’ll soon be up at at ’em. I’m guessing a swim across the Thames won’t be on the agenda, but great memories of a bounteous youth.

    I’m still trying to work out whether Kiama is your daughter, your wife, or a town in NSW, or all three.

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