BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

Movement to the Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull after a better-than-usual result from Essential Research.

Slight movement back to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week after a soft result for Labor from Essential Research, which together with a Queensland-only result from Galaxy was the only new federal poll this week. This causes a 0.3% cut in the Labor primary vote and two losses on the seat projection – one in New South Wales and one in Queensland. Essential also had leadership ratings this week, and while the weak result for Bill Shorten hasn’t made too much difference to the poll aggregate reading, the difference is sufficient to put Malcolm Turnbull back in the lead on net approval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,228 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor”

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  1. Frednk,
    Please do not feed the troll. P1 is not really a troll, just someone who knows only one song and he will sing it all day. If you engage you are only encouraging him. Reality and P1 seem to be at some distance

  2. At the end of the governments inaction on the power situation. We will find out who ever is the next government electricity prices will continue to rice for some time to come. What needs to be done to fix for the longer term is to make a % of the gas market reserved for the domestic market un-linked to the world market price. At the same time develop the base load gas turbine generation and continue at a greater pace the renewable energy generation.
    The biggest problem, the present LNP government are paralyzed, unable to make any decision. In the future I think they will refer to the present situation as ” But we never made a mistake! All the decisions we made have proved right!”

  4. This accident at Essendon airport shows the folly of building a shopping centre on airport land. It could have been far worse if it happened during peak shopping period and the plane crashed into the shopping area rather than the loading bay area.

    From what I understand, airports are favoured by shopping centre developers as the airports are federal land and the more strict state planning laws are not enforceable in these areas.

    Sometimes you need a little extra space around the landing strips so a plane can come down safely if something goes wrong.

  8. frednk @ #1095 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 12:27 pm

    No mate; what is on the drawing board to be built; it is all happening like it or not. Arguing for gas; you are back in the 2010 at best. Been personally involved in a couple of gas project; not going to happen no more; it’s over. Solar and wind is where it is at.

    Don’t be an idiot. Modelling shows that just about every scenario other than a simple “renewable energy target” predicts we will have more gas generation, because that’s the cheapest and most practical way to actually reduce greenhouse gas emissions (which is the point, remember?). An EIS would see new gas generation, as would an ETS, as would simple forced closure of coal plants. It is just a question of how much.

    Let me guess – your next response will be that this modelling (http://www.aemc.gov.au/Markets-Reviews-Advice/Integration-of-energy-and-emissions-reduction-poli/Final/AEMC-documents/Frontier-Economics-Report.aspx) released a few months ago is “already out of date” !

    Perhaps you and Trog and a few others here could start a club. You could call it the “500 PPM” club – you could sit around all day explaining to each other why reality is not keeping up with your exponential growth curves.

  9. When will Trump blame this on terrorism?

    “Did you hear about what just happened in Australia? Did you hear about this? They’ve got these people, crashing planes. They’re crashing planes, people. And they’ve got no idea, in Australia, who these people are or where they come from. They just don’t know. And they’re crashing planes. Which is why we’re going to have strong borders, and extreme vetting. And we’ll make American great again!”

  11. The Tories are busy drain bump old quotes to use against Shorten, particularly in relation to business tax cuts.

    Asked about his acceptance of One Nation compared to his view years ago John Howard effectively said ‘times have changed’

    That’s true, but there’s a big difference between opposition to a racist xenophobic party then to support for a racist xenophobic party now and supporting business tax cuts in an entirely different economic environment and opposing them now.

  13. Hey Doyley

    I still do love grammar and get annoyed with the standards today. Very old school I am.

    What about:
    ‘… and get annoyed by (either) today’s standards (or) the standards of today’.

    How’s that for grumpy! (smiley face)

  14. dovey @ #1101 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 12:34 pm

    Frednk,
    Please do not feed the troll. P1 is not really a troll, just someone who knows only one song and he will sing it all day. If you engage you are only encouraging him. Reality and P1 seem to be at some distance

    You know, if you alt-lefties stopped posting such obvious nonsense, I would happily shut up. It is clear what we need to do (Alan Davis gets it, just a few posts above this!) – you are apparently just trying to delay any solution other than your preferred one. Well, say hello to 500 PPM.

  15. I studied Latin at High School for 6 years and ended up coming in the Top 20 in NSW in the 3 Unit course. I also did very well in English, often getting 20/20 for my essays, including about Shakespeare. 🙂

    I prefer to smash language and grammar to bits if I feel like it, even so. 😀


  16. Player One
    Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 12:49 pm
    frednk @ #1095 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 12:27 pm

    ….
    Don’t be an idiot. Modelling shows that just about every scenario other than a simple “renewable energy target” predicts we will have more gas

    I really don’t care what the modelling says; I am telling to what is happening. Two possibilities; your modelling is spot on and the people investing billions are wrong; or your modelling is wrong.

  17. P1

    Your posts are the alt reality.

    Investment has to go to renewables.
    Your denial that renewables even without storage can through being geographically diverse manage the so called base load and the peak is your problem.

    We know this is because as soon as you admit base load is a myth there goes any argument for nuclear power and fossil fuels

  18. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/21/long-winded-speech-could-be-early-sign-of-alzheimers-says-study?CMP=soc_568

    Rambling and long-winded anecdotes could be an early sign of Alzheimer’s disease, according to research that suggests subtle changes in speech style occur years before the more serious mental decline takes hold.
    …
    Worsening “mental imprecision” was the key, rather than people simply being verbose, however. “Many individuals may be long-winded, that’s not a concern,” said Sherman.

    Sherman and colleagues had initially set out to test the “regression hypothesis”, the idea that language is lost in a reverse trajectory to how it was acquired during childhood, with sophisticated vocabulary being the first thing to go.

    The hypothesis turned out to be wrong, but the team did find that dementia is accompanied by characteristic language deficits. In a study, the scientists compared the language abilities of 22 healthy young individuals, 24 healthy older individuals and 22 people with MCI.

    When given an exercise in which they had to join up three words, for instance “pen”, “ink” and “paper”, the healthy volunteers typically joined the three in a simple sentence, while the MCI group gave circuitous accounts of going to the shop and buying a pen.

    “They were much less concise in conveying information, the sentences they produced were much longer, they had a hard time staying on point and I guess you could say they were much more roundabout in getting their point across,” said Sherman. “It was a very significant difference.”

  23. dovey @ #1101 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 12:34 pm

    Frednk,
    Please do not feed the troll. P1 is not really a troll, just someone who knows only one song and he will sing it all day. If you engage you are only encouraging him. Reality and P1 seem to be at some distance

    P1 is a Troll. In fact the most persistent Troll ever seen on PB.
    Previously his obsession was the ABS and the Census.
    Now that interest in the ABS and the Census has waned, he has moved on to his latest obsession and will go on endlessly about how only he can see the truth.

  24. frednk @ #1116 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 12:58 pm

    I really don’t care what the modelling says; I am telling to what is happening. Two possibilities; your modelling is spot on and the people investing billions are wrong; or your modelling is wrong.

    By all means let’s throw out the modelling and go by “feelpinion”.

    Of course there is one last possibility … which I almost hesitate to mention … I mean … is it vaguely possible … just the merest chance … that you might be wrong?

  26. peebee @ #1104 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 12:41 pm

    This accident at Essendon airport shows the folly of building a shopping centre on airport land. It could have been far worse if it happened during peak shopping period and the plane crashed into the shopping area rather than the loading bay area.
    From what I understand, airports are favoured by shopping centre developers as the airports are federal land and the more strict state planning laws are not enforceable in these areas.
    Sometimes you need a little extra space around the landing strips so a plane can come down safely if something goes wrong.

    Thanks for that. It puts a bit of flesh on the bones of what I was feeling about it.

  27. Should have added: if PM and Treasurer are at odds, what hope for a sensible budget.

    Should have added: if PM and Treasurer are Liberals, what hope for a sensible budget.

  28. From what I understand, airports are favoured by shopping centre developers as the airports are federal land and the more strict state planning laws are not enforceable in these areas.

    Might it also be because land near airports is cheaper owing to the fact that nobody wants to do any residential development near an airport due to noise issues?

  30. Keerist! What is the ABC coming to …

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-21/donald-trump-could-he-be-setting-early-epic-fails-to-rights/8289364

    Greg Jennett is seriously claiming that Trumps continued monumental stuff-ups have led to a “better result” …

    But on three significant counts over the last week, America — if not the world — can take some consolation that failure can produce a better result.

    Or, as the President might put it — he lost some early battles, on the way to working out how to win a war in Washington.

    FFS!

  35. My favourite item about Shakespeare is the story behind the line
    “A rose by any other name would smell as sweet”
    As people would know he was a playwright for the Globe theatre in London and his plays were popular entertainment.

    The Globe was in fierce competition with other theatres, a main rival was a theatre called ‘The Rose’.
    This line was a put down implying their location near tanneries or meat works was, to put it mildly ‘smelly’.

  37. ‘In my school days I absolutely loved grammar and looked forward to the class every day. I still do love grammar and get annoyed with the standards today. Very old school I am’

    Me too, when I get it right.
    A caller rang the ABC this morning, complaining about the plural form of syllabus that was being used by the newsreader as ‘syllabuses’ when it should have been ‘syllabi’.

    This was in reference to the NSW HSC, and according to the ABC, syllabuses is the form used on the Board of Studies web site!

    As with many of these modern usages, syllabuses may well be acceptable, but it just sounds so damn clumsy!

  40. adrian Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 1:27 pm

    ‘In my school days I absolutely loved grammar and looked forward to the class every day. I still do love grammar and get annoyed with the standards today. Very old school I am’

    *******************************************
    Then Churchill is your man :
    “This is the type of arrant pedantry up with which I will not put.”

  41. FFS!

    Indeed. I suppose he also wants us to believe that all of Trump’s histrionic fits on (and off) Twitter have just been for show?

    Hard to argue that there’s some sort of intricate political choreography going on when the lead player can’t keep his foot out of his mouth.

  42. I studied Latin at High School for 6 years and ended up coming in the Top 20 in NSW in the 3 Unit course.

    Congratulations!

    But would it be churlish of me to ask how many did 3 unit Latin?

    😆

  43. ‘Greg Jennett is seriously claiming that Trumps continued monumental stuff-ups have led to a “better result” …’

    Jennett has remained a government transcriber as he was in Canberra, just in a different location.
    Like fellow propagandist, Sabra Lane, he is shameless.

  44. lizzie @ #1138 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 1:30 pm

    http://www.dailywritingtips.com/what-the-heck-are-learnings/

    I suspect that the pluralized form originated in the corporate world, but, because “learnings” sounds so supremely pompous, has been enthusiastically embraced by those other lovers of obfuscation: Educators and Social Scientists.

    I first encountered it about 12 years ago when some twerp who had been on a trip to the US used it. I was instantly repulsed and thought it was wrong, but checked and it was listed in the dictionary.
    I am constantly amazed at how easily some people seem to soak up these things.

  45. I understand the people in that light plane crash were flying to King Island to play golf.

    I guess they landed in the rough.

    Too soon?

  46. Moorabbin Airport has the same problem and is much busier than Essendon IIRC.
    There is more and more boxes for DFO type outlets being built on this land and there would be on average a plane ‘incident’ here at least once a month.

  49. By all means build more gas, but design the heat feed in a way that they can be converted to CST in the future.

    Inland spots with existing gas generation and transmission connections, such as Roma, Oakey, Barcaldine, Uranquinty, Wilga Park , Mintaro, and Hallett should all be investigated for this option.

    Don’t let the failure of the Kogan Creek solar boost put you off either – that was an attempt to incorporate solar thermal energy into a super-critical turbine

    Also, stored pressurised air can be used in open cycle gas turbines at critical peak times. This increases their output, as a significant amount of the primary energy use of these turbines goes to pressurising air before mixing it with gas to burn (like a turbo diesel engine).

    Get creative 🙂

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