BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

Movement to the Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull after a better-than-usual result from Essential Research.

Slight movement back to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week after a soft result for Labor from Essential Research, which together with a Queensland-only result from Galaxy was the only new federal poll this week. This causes a 0.3% cut in the Labor primary vote and two losses on the seat projection – one in New South Wales and one in Queensland. Essential also had leadership ratings this week, and while the weak result for Bill Shorten hasn’t made too much difference to the poll aggregate reading, the difference is sufficient to put Malcolm Turnbull back in the lead on net approval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,228 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 24 of 25
1 23 24 25
  1. In theNewcastle Herald today is an article stating that the two Shooters and Fishers clowns in the NSW upper house are going to have a new coal powered power station built in the Upper Hunter, adjacent to the existing (old) Bayswater and Liddel generators.

    I don’t believe they have a snowflake’s chance in hell of succeeding, but they and the ridiculous Rev Fred Nile have great power in the tight numbered NSW upper house, and the Conservos do accede to their wishes.

    However on this occasion I expect that the “dollar numbers” which are so unfavourable for such an investment (as voiced by many industry experts and coal supporters in recent weeks) will see the clowns coming out of this project empty handed.

  2. DFO have somehow bypassed, over the years, usual planning restrictions by operating in industrial zones where retail is not normally permitted much to the anger of its rivals.

  3. Me too, when I get it right.
    A caller rang the ABC this morning, complaining about the plural form of syllabus that was being used by the newsreader as ‘syllabuses’ when it should have been ‘syllabi’.

    I heard that piece while driving my four-year-old around. Cue my ranting, “It’s syllabi, syllabi you fool!” I have little doubt the 4yo will be asking his mum what syllabi are later today.

  4. PhoenixRed
    “Then Churchill is your man :
    “This is the type of arrant pedantry up with which I will not put.””

    Thought that was Yoda. 😉

  5. C@tmomma Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 12:58 pm

    I prefer to smash language and grammar to bits if I feel like it, even so.

    Two cliches:
    Rules are invented by those who know what they are doing for those who don’t.
    You need to understand the rules to know when it’s safe to break them.

    Unfortunately, when I break the rules of English grammar it’s usually not by design.

  6. From the NSW Education Standards Authority website:

    ‘The Board of Studies, Teaching & Educational Standards NSW (BOSTES) is responsible for developing syllabuses to be taught in New South Wales schools, from Kindergarten through to Year 12.’

    Sigh…

  7. In the article linked by Lizzie about “learnings”, (@1.30pm) the author attributes what he/she sees as language bastardisation to educators and Social Scientists.

    However a number of commenters under the article correct the author’s incorrect assertion thus:

    In the article linked by Lizzie about “learnings”, (@1.30pm) the author attributes what he/she sees as language bastardisation to educators and Social Scientists.

    However a number of commenters under the article correct the author’s incorrect assertion thus:

    “Next time you might want to read past the first paragraph of the OED. You’d find that it backdates “learnings” (with a period-appropriate spelling) to 1483:

    1483 CAXTON G. de la Tour cxxxvii. Mvij, The thre enseygnementes or lernynges whiche Cathon gaf to his sone.”

  8. This is from the Oxford Dictionary website.

    Further to what I have quoted is some quite interesting commentary about some exceptions to the below, and advice about when the Latin should be used and when the Latin should not be used.

    “As a rule of thumb, the Latin-style plural is appropriate to formal, scientific, or technical writing, while the English plural is better suited to everyday language. Rock guitarists use plectrums, and might be ridiculed if they called them plectra.

    Choosing to use the Latin plural form when an English one is also available can smack of pretentiousness or pomposity, as when talking of online fora rather than forums.”

    https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/grammar/plurals-of-english-nouns-taken-from-latin-or-greek

  9. kakuru Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 1:59 pm

    PhoenixRed
    “Then Churchill is your man :
    “This is the type of arrant pedantry up with which I will not put.””

    Thought that was Yoda

    ********************************************
    Churchill sort of was like Yoda – small in stature but wise and powerful with his choice of words ……… and sometimes odd choice of words or sentences …..

    I’ve said it before but my dear mum who lived through the blitz and WW2 war years said of Churchill _ ‘sure, he was a drunken old hound, but when he spoke his words gave us hope when all of the UK seemed lost to the Germans ….. and he used to belittle and ridicule Hitler by calling him out with Mr/Corporal Schicklgruber and it cheered us no end’

  10. Cambridge dictionary online lists “syllabuses” as plural form with “syllabi” mentioned second. Not sure if order if appearance in the dictionary indicates preferred usage or prevalence. Most of these plurals have become standardised to the common form recently. Through common usage more than any other impulse I would imagine – we don’t have an “academy anglaise” so English grammar is a matter of common usage rather than prescriptive rules.

  11. Dovey,
    One characteristic of trolls is lack of introspection. They know they are right and don’t even bother to play “what ifs” with their own assumptions. Trolling isn’t just about getting off on annoying people.

  12. B.C. Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 2:00 pm
    Two cliches:
    Rules are invented by those who know what they are doing for those who don’t.
    You need to understand the rules to know when it’s safe to break them.

    Unfortunately, when I break the rules of English grammar it’s usually not by design.

    ********************************************

    “I actually intentially have poor spelling and grammar in my books. I feel that spelling and grammar shoudn’t reflect inteltect. I beleive not everyone has the same recorses. Not everyone can aford to be taught the same grammar. Some people like me have learning dissabilites. Some people have dissorders or mental dissabilites. Some people never went to school. So when your judging someones writing, or reviewing, it. Please I ask of you this, don’t take the grammar and spelling into acount. Because lets face it. Not everyone is as privleged as you.”
    ― Adam Snowflake

  13. ‘Of all the things taught at school grammar is one of the least relevant to the 21st Century.’

    If we’re talking relevance to the 21st Century, perhaps we should introduce new subjects:

    Advanced Bullshit
    How to Be a Convincing Liar
    Avoiding Tax for Beginners
    What’s A Fact?
    The Art of Propaganda

  14. b.c. @ #1161 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 2:03 pm

    I’m interested in how you would do this?

    I am also interested. I presume LU means we should design the gas plant so that it can be driven by heat from CST just as easily as heat from burning gas? Seems plausible, but one complication might be that CST plants are typically on the order of 50-250MW, which is much smaller than the smallest gas plants we would want to build (which would probably be in the range 500-2000MW). Perhaps LU is assuming that eventually CST will be able to scale to these levels?

  15. Jenauthor
    “The Essential might not have changed on headline but the other question ALL back up ALP policy stances.”

    At face value, true. I hope the numbers reflect the real world. But support for renewables seems implausibly high in this poll. I wonder if, deep down, many respondents really believe what they’re telling the questioner. Perhaps many respondents think they ought to express support for renewables over fossil fuels for moral and ethical reasons, even if they have misgivings (especially regarding cost).

    Don’t get me wrong: I fully support the shift to renewables. Coal is dying, and coalfire power stations are destined to be stranded assets. But I doubt a large majority of Australian voters feel the same way.

  16. El Guapo – I have become a magnificent grammarian since I started using on-line grammar checkers. Grammarly is a wonderful free tool.

  17. El Guapo
    “Of all the things taught at school grammar is one of the least relevant to the 21st Century.”

    Though extremely useful when learning foreign languages.

  18. brisoz @ #1171 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 2:22 pm

    If Nuclear is an option, here is another reason why it’s not:
    http://www.environmentalprogress.org/big-news/2017/2/13/why-its-big-bet-on-westinghouse-nuclear-bankrupted-toshiba

    Nuclear is not an option for Australia. The industry has been successfully killed here by the fossil fuel lobby, as well as by extremists from both ends of the political spectrum.

    Interestingly though, I used to work for Toshiba and helped develop the nuclear power station control software they used in Japan. And (before you ask) no my software was not used at Fukushima!

  19. So the libs have shed 6 primary points since the election but only suffer a swing against them of about 2 points. That means, doesn’t it, that a hell of a lot of voters have left the govt (mostly to one nation) but will give the govt their second preferences. Not sure that sounds right.

  20. ‘Though extremely useful when learning foreign languages.’

    Of which there should be a lot more – particularly our close neighbours.

  21. kakuru @ #1176 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 2:30 pm

    I hope the numbers reflect the real world. But support for renewables seems implausibly high in this poll. I wonder if, deep down, many respondents really believe what they’re telling the questioner. Perhaps many respondents think they ought to express support for renewables over fossil fuels for moral and ethical reasons, even if they have misgivings (especially regarding cost).

    I think the appeal of renewables is the understanding that once the capital equipment is installed, the fuel costs nothing. That’s why so many people have installed solar panels, even if a strict economic analysis might find against it, taking into account the life of the panels, etc.
    It gives certainty and removes questions about the future availability and cost of fuel.
    This is a gut feeling response as much as anything else so is potentially very powerful if Labor can harness it and turn it into votes.

  22. “Understanding the workings of our language is of supreme importance”

    Being understood is important. The finer points of grammar are not. Which us why we can all communicate despite the overwhelming majority not knowing their grammar from their grandma.

  23. Anton,

    I may be wrong but I assume preferences are being distributed by the pollsters as they were last election. From Essential the leakage from the coalition is not going to labor but to ON. As well, Labor has gone backwards in essential over the last three weeks from 37 % to 34 % primary so add the two together and that well may be the answer to your conundrum.

    As a disclaimer, the above musings are purely the thoughts of a amateur.

    Cheers.

  24. Aw Gawd! Who turned the bloomin’ Grammar Gestapo loose? The rest of the day will be spent working out whether an exclamatory question should have placed after it, a ? or a/an !……and then when bored with this type of trivia, time to get stuck into apostrophes……..give us a break……..


  25. Player One
    Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 1:13 pm


    Of course there is one last possibility … which I almost hesitate to mention … I mean … is it vaguely possible … just the merest chance … that you might be wrong?

    I suppose it’s possible I hear about solar and wind projects and not about the gas; but I am willing to bet it is not the case. The message is the same; gas is too expensive; not going to happen.
    Sorry mate; doesn’t matter how right you think you are; gas projects are not happening.

  26. I was impressed by the economic prowess behind this Liberal party idea to reduce the debt now spiraling out of control under their leadership.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/young-liberals-call-for-more-public-service-job-cuts-and-new-tony-abbottstyle-commission-of-audit-20170220-gugo68.html

    Public service job cuts. Of course! But I have an even better suggestion. Since the average public servant costs only half the pay, overheads and resources of a ministerial staffer, why not cut the number of ministerial staffers back proportional to the number of public servants! That would save taxpayers even more money without diminishing services to the public 🙂

  27. Hypocrisy Meter Off The Charts As Trump Has Golfed 6 Times Since Taking Office

    Perhaps the new president should finish reading his job description instead of jetting off to Florida every weekend.

    After repeatedly criticizing Barack Obama for his golfing habits, the hypocrisy meter is flying off the charts as Donald Trump has visited his golf course half a dozen times in the span of a single month in office.

    Trump’s White House has been a magnificent dumpster fire, plagued by scandal and incompetence literally from day one

    To paraphrase the president, can you believe that, with all the problems and difficulties facing the new administration, that Trump has spent every weekend of his first month as president playing golf?

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/20/hypocrisy-meter-flies-charts-trump-golfed-times-office.html

  28. Don
    “But would it be churlish of me to ask how many did 3 unit Latin?”
    When I migrated to Australia from Scotland in 1964 I left a school where around 60 students studied Latin in my year alone (4th form) – thus approximately 300 pupils in total – to only 3 at my school in Canberra. The other two pupils were from Germany. I guess Australians were/are not too keen on Latin. 🙂

  29. Essential ‏@EssentialVision 47s47 seconds ago

    Only 16% of Australians think the recent power black outs were the result of too much reliance on renewable energy

  30. @ Kakuru – I think you’re being too cynical.

    Renewables having, for a long time, consistently outperformed virtually anything else to do with climate.

    Incentives for renewables had more than 3x the support of an ETS, and 4.5 the support of the Direct Action Plan. This is from 2015.

    http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_150324.pdf

    This isn’t just people wanting to sound like they care more than they do. People specifically like Renewables more than any other solution.

  31. Essential ‏@EssentialVision 37s38 seconds ago

    Essential Retweeted Essential

    45% think they’re mainly due to failures of the energy market in responding to extreme weather events #EssentialReport

  32. “Though extremely useful when learning foreign languages.”

    It can be, particularly if learning later in life and you learn by wrote rather than ear. But again highly overrated and far from essential. Many of the world’s great musicians can’t read music. (Not necessarily an apt statement but ive just been listening to Johnny Cash ).

  33. CIA veteran and NSC spokesperson scalds ‘deceitful, delusional’ Trump as he quits agency

    In a rare public admission, analyst Edward Price, who recently served as the spokesperson for the National Security Council, claimed that Trump’s conduct — as well as his treatment of the intelligence agency — forced him to conclude that the newly-elected president is either “deceitful or delusional.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/02/watch-cia-veteran-and-nsc-spokesperson-scalds-deceitful-delusional-trump-as-he-quits-agency/

  34. For those interested in those ‘fact’ things … the largest CST plant in the world is rated at 392 MW – but it has never achieved its expected performance … and has had a few big accidents along the way …

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivanpah_Solar_Power_Facility

    And … guess what? … It burns gas!

    The plant requires burning natural gas each morning to get the plant started. The Wall Street Journal reported: “Instead of ramping up the plant each day before sunrise by burning one hour’s worth of natural gas to generate steam, Ivanpah needs more than four times that much.” On August 27, 2014, the State of California approved Ivanpah to increase its annual natural gas consumption from 328 million cubic feet of natural gas, as previously approved, to 525 million cubic feet. In 2014, the plant burned 867,740 million BTU of natural gas emitting 46,084 metric tons of carbon dioxide, which is nearly twice the pollution threshold at which power plants and factories in California are required to participate in the state’s cap and trade program to reduce carbon emissions.

Comments Page 24 of 25
1 23 24 25

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *