Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria

New polling finds Daniel Andrews’ government maintaining a slim lead statewide, but there’s trouble brewing out west.

Courtesy of the Herald Sun, two Victorian state polls from Galaxy:

• A statewide poll has Labor with a 51-49 lead, down from 52-48 at both the last poll in mid-November, and the last election in November 2014. On the primary vote, Labor is at 37%, compared with 37% in the last poll and 38.1% at the election; the Coalition is on 41%, compared with 42% at both the last poll and the last election; the Greens are on 10%, compared with 10% and 11.5%; and One Nation records a debut reading of 8%. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1085.

• In the western Melbourne electorate of Werribee, a boilover 51-49 lead for the Liberals, compared with 65.7-34.3 at the election, from primary votes of Liberal 35% (28.7% at the election), Labor 29% (56.6%), Greens 7% (8.5%) and One Nation 21%. This poll was conducted Thursday to gauge the electoral impact of a proposed youth prison in Werribee on the Treasurer, Tim Pallas, and has a sample of 551.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria”

  1. Regarding the Galaxy poll of the “safe” seat of Werribee which shows the treasurer now in danger of losing it, the breakfast boys on 3aw this morning were asking the question, why wouldn’t the government put the controversial prison for juvenile offenders in a safe Liberal seat, rather than a Labor one? What would they have to lose?

    I think Andrews might be asking himself that question right now.

  2. Andrews to be rolled within the next month or so. No doubt certain figures within the partyroom have been waiting for just this sort of excuse to cling to.

  3. Is Galaxy above priming / skewing the Werribee voting intention poll by asking the question about the youth prison first?
    Frankly, none of these numbers passes the smell test. Sure, Andrews is copping flak — but the Opposition are pretty hopeless.

  4. Not too surprised with the seat results. From social media I can tell there is massive community anger. Perhaps better off canning the project and choosing a less contentious spot, not worth the political pain.

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