Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings take a hit in Essential’s latest poll, while Galaxy charts One Nation’s ongoing progress in Queensland.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average moves a point back to the Coalition for the second week in a row, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 35%, with the Coalition steady on 36%, One Nation steady on 10% and the Greens up a point to 9%. The monthly leaders ratings find Bill Shorten taking a big hit, down seven points on approval to 30% and up three on disapproval to 47%, and Malcolm Turnbull a smaller one, down three on approval to 34% and up one on disapproval to 49%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 39-28 last month to 39-25.

The survey also asked respondents if they would be likely to vote for Cory Bernardi’s Conservative Party, to which 14% said yes – which, as is always the case when questions like this are asked, is well above the party’s plausible vote share. Sixty-two per cent say they would be unlikely to, which is on the high side as these things go. The poll also has 17% saying Bernardi’s defection is good for the Liberal Party, 26% bad, 29% neither, and 28% don’t know. As of next week, the Essential Research poll will be published in conjunction with The Guardian.

We’ve also had federal voting intention results from the weekend’s Queensland poll by Galaxy for the Courier-Mail, which has One Nation on 18% (up six since November), the Coalition on 35% (down four), Labor on 29% (down one) and the Greens on 8% (steady), with the Coalition down a point on two-party preferred to lead 51-49. The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 867.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,956 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. PsyClaw

    Pamela Anderson’s body appears to be fair game amongst female posters here over the past 24 hours. Her body size, signs of ageing, and makeup V no makeup have all been canvassed.

    Perhaps the PB rules have changed.

    Perhaps all commentators could be so ‘PC’ so not mentioning that her ‘claim’ to fame was via “Playmate of the month”.

  4. Paraguay has lost nearly a million hectares and Argentina nearly two million hectares of forest since 2004 alone, with GM soya considered to be a major driver.

    The impacts include biodiversity loss, including many species found nowhere else, and displacement of indigenous peoples, some not previously contacted, plus impacts on soils and water, regional and local climate change and changes in rainfall.

    This is shortsighted destruction driven by short-term profits. And it is criminal – ecocide and genocide rolled into one.

    http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2267255/gm_crops_are_driving_genocide_and_ecocide_keep_them_out_of_the_eu.html

  5. Dead welfare recipient ? meh. No probs that sort of shit since at least the time The Rodent sent reffos back to their deaths in Afghanistan. Scrott and the malignant Potato must have a few notches on their belts’ by now . These days killing a few ‘Untermensch’ is the way to improve one’s standing in the Liberal party created by Howard.

  6. Dead welfare recipient ? meh.

    Yep, spot on. Dead apprentice electricians however, are another matter entirely in Liberal Land. This mob just go from worse to worser.

  7. Why generalise in that way, psyclaw?

    If you’ve got problems with particular posts, name the posters.

    Better still, call it out when you first become aware of it.

    btw, people not always calling out misogynistic comments (because I would hope that protesting against misogyny isn’t a gender thing) – or even women making misogynistic comments themselves – doesn’t devalue anyone who calls out misogynistic comments.

    Hypocrisy is a human failing. We all see the splinters in other’s eyes.

    It’s more productive, surely, to praise those who attempt to help others see clearly then to shame them into silence because they’re being human.

  9. Have not long ago finished reading Vic. Labor’s new Vision for the Future document for discussion and comment at our branch meeting next week.
    It’s very good, really tapping into income disparity, job security, public housing and climate change and energy issues.
    I’ve only a couple of things to feed in, and I think a number of people posting here would be quite surprised at how much work Labor has been doing on these issues and how much research and thought has gone into this.
    Going to be very happy supporting Labor come the next State election.

  10. Confessions

    . Dead apprentice electricians however, a

    Who were , to a man, killed by the Lib’s sainted small businessmen ignoring legislated Occupational Health and Safety.

  11. Monica L:

    I wish we in WA had the Victorian govt over here. I’ve been impressed with the Vic Labor govt pretty much from the get go and approve of what I’ve seen of its policy platform. And Daniel Andrews comes across as competent, intelligent, measured, and compassionate. A younger Jay Weatherill.

  12. poroti:

    Oh yes, let’s not ever forget that fact, something that should’ve been screamed from the rooftops at the time. But that would’ve stood in the way of sacking Garrett.

  15. Poroti

    killed by the Lib’s sainted small businessmen ignoring legislated Occupational Health and Safety.

    The so said ‘legislated’ OH& S a matter of ‘State’ law rather than C’wlth.

  16. Confessions
    Once the document is ratified for public disclosure, I’ll post it
    Don’t know anything much about WA Labor, apart from what WA bludgers tell us and I read about in the press, which is to put it mildly, apart from our esteemed William, not very informative.
    Labor does have a mess on its hands in relation to juvenile justice and a decision to place the major facility in Werribee, a seat held by Tim Pallas, Vic Treasurer, facing a furious backlash from locals, including Labor people. I don’t know how that’s going to play out, to be honest.

  18. Monica L:

    That would be very much appreciated if you did post it. WA Labor doesn’t seem to be as progressive as the Victorian ALP seems to be, but we are a mining, pastoral state and conservative state, so I guess that should be expected.

  19. zoomster @ #1766 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 7:17 pm

    Stephanie Ross has failed in her bid to win preselection —
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-liberal-mp-fends-off-preselection-challenge-by-controversial-prolifer-20170218-gufyow.html
    I’ve some sympathy for the idea that Blackwood should make way for new blood, but I’m not sure that someone as reactionary (she can scarcely be termed conservative) in her views as Ross is a suitable replacement.

    A ‘young fogey’ is no improvement. Particularly one so off the planet.

  21. CTar1

    “he so said ‘legislated’ OH& S a matter of ‘State’ law rather than C’wlth.”

    Very true, so that of course meant the presstitutes reported it as all Federal Labor’s fault 🙁

  22. ctar1 @ #1751 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 6:40 pm

    PsyClaw

    Pamela Anderson’s body appears to be fair game amongst female posters here over the past 24 hours. Her body size, signs of ageing, and makeup V no makeup have all been canvassed.
    Perhaps the PB rules have changed.

    Perhaps all commentators could be so ‘PC’ so not mentioning that her ‘claim’ to fame was via “Playmate of the month”.

    That only brought her to public attention. Appearing on Baywatch expanded on that, however her real claim to fame is starring in a home movie with her then husband Tommy Lee of Motley Crüe.

  25. monica lynagh @ #1765 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 7:17 pm

    Confessions
    Once the document is ratified for public disclosure, I’ll post it
    Don’t know anything much about WA Labor, apart from what WA bludgers tell us and I read about in the press, which is to put it mildly, apart from our esteemed William, not very informative.
    Labor does have a mess on its hands in relation to juvenile justice and a decision to place the major facility in Werribee, a seat held by Tim Pallas, Vic Treasurer, facing a furious backlash from locals, including Labor people. I don’t know how that’s going to play out, to be honest.

    What document are you referring to Monica? Is it on the ALP website? If it is available to members generally it won’t stay secret for long.

  29. Reports and pictures of hail 9cm, possibly bigger, in the Sydney area in this afternoon’s storms. Fortunately most were much smaller. A cricket ball is 7.2 cm in diameter. I don’t know what sport younplay with a 9 cm ball.

  30. Must say Stephanie Ross failing to win pre-selection is just marvellous. I love the sound of Libs imploding at any time of the day or night.
    I’m sure Kroger is mightily displeased. Good.

  33. Poroti

    so that of course meant the presstitutes reported it as all Federal Labor’s fault

    By the time that’Pink Bats’ happened the C’wlth had no expertise to deal with the actual ‘hands on’ part.

    Before that we had a squadron of C’wlth trained Tradies (good, bad or indifferent as you will, but the C’wlth’s people) who could have overseen this.

    JWH flushed them.

  34. Pamela Anderson’s body appears to be fair game amongst female posters here over the past 24 hours. Her body size, signs of ageing, and makeup V no makeup have all been canvassed.

    Perhaps the PB rules have changed.

    No Fat, Old, White men get a workout regularly on PB

  35. Viewed from the other side of the country I have never been able to understand the myth of Kroger. He is portrayed as some sort of master manipulator and political genius but his party has spent long periods in opposition in Victoria in recent times.
    And now he is said to be promoting a 20 something RW nutter as the new hope of the party, who starts off with an attempt to roll a sitting member with his 20 something girlfriend.
    I am all for renewal and I would think than any party should look at a 65yo in what I presume is in a safe seat and line up a replacement who is likely to be minister in a future government.
    They are an interesting lot in the Liberal Party.

  36. Re CTari @7:16PM / Poroti: “Who were , to a man, killed by the Lib’s sainted small businessmen ignoring legislated Occupational Health and Safety”.

    Well, it’s all ted tape isn’t it. Businesses big and small hate being regulated almost as much as they hate paying tax. They want to decide how safe their workplace should be, just as they want to be the sole arbiters of wages and conditions, fair trade and fair wotk. We just need to look at factories in India, China or SE Asia or some of the dodgier operators here (I’m looking at you 7/11 and Dominoes) to see how a “Free Market” would operate.

    Corporations are people says Mitt Romney, one of the saner US Republicans. If a corperation were a person it would be a psychopath. It has to be regulated into good behaviour.

    {end rant}

  37. Vic:

    If you’re around you’ll enjoy the Real Time panel, one of whom is a former counter intelligence officer with decades of experience. Loving his commentary on Flynn, Wikileaks, Trump’s links to Russia and his total killing of the ex-GOP congressman panelist claim that the DNC didn’t have secure internet with (wtte) “Doesn’t matter how good you think your security is, if someone wants to hack it they will. The difference between the DNC and the RNC is that the Russians were working for you therefore they were never going to hack the RNC’. Also went on to show the Wikileaks link with Trump on the campaign mentioning X, next thing a flood of DNC emails mentioning that same X were released into the public.

  38. Bemused & Zoomster
    I’m not sure why our branch is being asked to comment on this document. Maybe because we’re a mix of regional, rural and growing communities?
    Maybe you should put some pressure on to get the document released more widely, if you can.
    I’ll catch up with you later as I’ve got other stuff to do now.

  39. dave @ #1783 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 7:43 pm

    Pamela Anderson’s body appears to be fair game amongst female posters here over the past 24 hours. Her body size, signs of ageing, and makeup V no makeup have all been canvassed.
    Perhaps the PB rules have changed.

    No Fat, Old, White men get a workout regularly on PB

    Always treated as fair game, but now it seems we have achieved gender equality and treat women the same.

  40. Pamela Anderson’s body appears to be fair game amongst female posters here over the past 24 hours. Her body size, signs of ageing, and makeup V no makeup have all been canvassed.

    Not by me, Dave. All I did was post that it’d been reported she was having a fling with St Julian, schlepping him vegan cheeseburgers to the Ecuadorian embassy, and how funny I found this that in Assange’s quest for ongoing relevance, an affair with Pamela Anderson was what was keeping him in the news.

    Wikileaks = Wikipathetic.

  41. rossmcg @ #1784 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 7:48 pm

    Viewed from the other side of the country I have never been able to understand the myth of Kroger. He is portrayed as some sort of master manipulator and political genius but his party has spent long periods in opposition in Victoria in recent times.
    And now he is said to be promoting a 20 something RW nutter as the new hope of the party, who starts off with an attempt to roll a sitting member with his 20 something girlfriend.
    I am all for renewal and I would think than any party should look at a 65yo in what I presume is in a safe seat and line up a replacement who is likely to be minister in a future government.
    They are an interesting lot in the Liberal Party.

    I was slightly acquainted with Kroger at uni but more closely acquainted with his brother, Andrew, and Peter Costello, both of whom I shared some lectures and tutorials.
    Kroger thought he could become the Libs version of Robert Ray.

  43. monica lynagh @ #1787 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 7:50 pm

    Bemused & Zoomster
    I’m not sure why our branch is being asked to comment on this document. Maybe because we’re a mix of regional, rural and growing communities?
    Maybe you should put some pressure on to get the document released more widely, if you can.
    I’ll catch up with you later as I’ve got other stuff to do now.

    Maybe our Branch Secretary has it and I haven’t attended any meetings lately.

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