BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record incremental movement to Labor on two-party preferred, and One Nation on the primary vote.

The return of Newspoll, along with the usual weekly result from Essential Research, has docked both major parties slightly on the primary vote, with One Nation continuing to go onward and upward. The difference on two-party preferred is slightly in favour of Labor, who also pick up one in Queensland on the seat projection. Leadership ratings from Newspoll send both leaders downward on net satisfaction, with no change on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  2. Just watched Nine News. There’s Murdoch reporter Devine commenting on rising power prices – “the Shorten Government” is to blame ?????
    What did she have for breakfast ???
    The blame is the lies of “privatisation” – BIG BUSINESS will run things better ! What a whopper – they simply set their Greedy Profits as their aim. We, the public, pay for their greed !
    The LNP liars must be called out on every lie they tell.

  3. Antonbrucken and AJM:

    Im not sure regarding the constitutional basis but in NSW the compulsory acquisition process is based on just terms, the legislation is called the Land Acquisition (Just Terms Compensation) Act 1991.

  6. Guytaur
    A timely article.
    Clueless posters who claim that batteries are too expensive for grid and or behind the meter use fail to appreciate several points:
    1) Behind the meter battery plus solar pv installation is set to explode in 2017
    2) AGL are already commissioning substantial domestic and grid battery installation. They are unlikely to do this if it didn’t make economic sense, at least in the intermediate term.
    3) Batteries on the grid cover short term power requirements when there are massive hikes in power prices, or situations requiring extremely rapid response such as the interconnector transmission lines being blown over. Comparing the costs of battery capacity with the costs of baseload capacity for such contingencies is ridiculous.

  8. The Federal Government agency considering a $1 billion loan to mining giant Adani has refused a Freedom of Information (FOI) request for the dates and locations of its upcoming board meetings.

    Key points:
    •Greenpeace wants information about the agency’s upcoming board meetings
    •The request was rejected on the grounds it could lead to protests at the meetings
    •NAIF said noise outside the meeting could “adversely affect” its ability to operate effectively

    The Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF) rejected the FOI request from Greenpeace on the grounds that it could encourage protesters and media interest.

    An expert on FOI laws slammed the decision as setting a dangerous precedent.

    “That level of secrecy is not justified,” said Rick Snell, the acting dean of law at the University of Tasmania.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-13/agency-assessing-$1b-loan-to-adani-rejects-foi-request/8259342

  9. Ajm,
    ‘Solar Power Screamers’ 🙂

    However, it’s the Wind Power that the Coalition have in their sights because so many of their base have Solar Cells on their roof.

  10. Wow, Katharine Murphy on her Facebook page:

    Katharine Murphy
    12 mins ·
    These crises have now arrived in the form of blackouts … they are not caused by too much renewable energy. As the BCA makes clear, it’s due to a lack of investment, in turn due to a lack of policy certainty and clarity.

    This is entirely the Liberal Party’s fault — not just Malcolm Turnbull’s, although he is a rather pathetic figure now. If he didn’t go along with the hoax, he’d be sacked and another PM would.

    By taking the low road in 2009 instead of the high road, and deciding to mislead Australians about the true cost of energy, the Liberal Party condemned the country to a decade of confusion and stasis on energy policy.

    That reached a nadir of absurdity last week with the Treasurer’s coal stunt.

    The rest of Australia’s leaders, in particular the CEOs of our largest companies, should declare now that enough is enough, and pull these idiots into line.

    Basically Malcolm sold his principles and the national interest down the line in order to hang onto the leadership. What a weak, pathetic individual.

  11. If Miranda Devine thinks we have a Shorten government, better let Bill slide into the Prime Minister’s chair today in parliament. 😉

  12. Peta Credlin admits the climate change policy under Julia Gillard’s Labor government was never a carbon tax, but the coalition used that label to stir up brutal retail politics.

    Credlin, the former chief of staff to Tony Abbott when he was prime minister and now a political commentator for Sky News, said the coalition made it a “carbon tax” and a fight about the hip pocket rather than the environment.

    “That was brutal retail politics, and it took Abbott six months to cut through and when he did cut through Gillard was gone,” she told Sky News on Sunday.

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/carbon-tax-just-brutal-politics-credlin-ng-s-1674127

  15. Thanks BK. I like Urban Wronski’s label of Barnyard Joyce as a front bench “coal-tosser”, and will add it to C@tmum’s ” Wind Power Howler” (Monkeys?).

  16. Are we seeing a pivot from media? It seems in the past week, despite Turnbull’s tirade, that they’ve suddenly started actually taking of the lib-coloured glasses and asking real question/making honest observations

  17. Good morning,

    Would it not be interesting if Bill Shorten offered a bipartisan approach to energy policy in light of the mess Australia is now in. Throw away the politics, sit down with all stake holders and put everything on the table including renewables and a system to put a price on carbon eg a electricity intensity scheme. But putting a carbon price on the table must be part of the discussion.

    Over to you Malcolm.

    Cheers.

  18. ‘The rest of Australia’s leaders, in particular the CEOs of our largest companies, should declare now that enough is enough, and pull these idiots into line.’

    The problem is that the CEO (or whatever she’s called) of the Business Council, seems such a fervent Liberal supporter that she cannot bring herself to criticise the government, instead falling back on the tired and cliched call for bipartisanship, as though such a thing will solve the problem.
    She did find time to criticise the states for ‘unrealistic’ renewable energy targets.
    Read labor states.

  20. Doyley

    Shorten should demonstrate by calling for an emergency summit of stakeholders.

    How will LNP look bipartisan for refusing to take part in summit including state premiers who are stake holders along with consumer groups representing customers who have copped blackouts.

  22. It seems in the past week, despite Turnbull’s tirade, that they’ve suddenly started actually taking of the lib-coloured glasses and asking real question/making honest observations

    The stunt with the coal seems to have been the switch. They promised they’d be an adult govt yet cling to old, outdated industries and behave like frat boys when the nation needs serious policy debate and action.

  24. Good one Murphy. Only 7 fucking years too late to notice what should have been obvious from the day Abbott took the Liberal leadership. That could be some sort of record for the Gallery.

  25. Barnaby Joyce apparently ‘Not Happy, Malcolm!’ about the WA Liberals Preference deal with the PHONies.

    As Michelle Grattan reported:

    Deputy Prime Minister and Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce observed cryptically on Sunday that: “Always as times grow cold … new friends are silver but old friends are gold.” It’s a fair bet it won’t be his last word on the subject. In response to earlier talk of the plan he predicted it would bring “another blue in WA”.

  27. Congress Must Act As Intelligence Experts Warn Russia Is Listening In Trump’s Situation Room

    “Since January 20, we’ve assumed that the Kremlin has ears inside the Situation Room,” a Senior Pentagon intelligence official is quoted as saying. Adding, “There’s not much the Russians don’t know at this point.”

    In terms of the Trump-compromised-by-Russia dossier that gathered steam with further corroboration on Friday, Schindler, based on his conversations with the intelligence community, put a finer point on what parts of the dossier were confirmed.

    It is a fact that senior Russian officials conspired to assist Trump’s win, “Now SIGINT confirms that some of the non-salacious parts of what Steele reported, in particular how senior Russian officials conspired to assist Trump in last year’s election, are substantially based in fact.”

    Because of these concerns and because President Trump doesn’t even bother to show up for briefings sometimes, and is sending the already disgraced Flynn, some agencies worry about the Trump White House’s inability to keep secrets and so they are no longer sharing some of the intel.

    “In light of this, and out of worries about the White House’s ability to keep secrets, some of our spy agencies have begun withholding intelligence from the Oval Office.”

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/12/senior-pentagon-official-kremlin-ears-sit-room.html

  28. workmanalice: The Senate report into same sex marriage was due to be handed down today but has been delayed until Wednesday. #auspol

  29. I do wonder when the idiots like Murphy in the Gallery who are starting to realise that maybe the strategy of say nothing but bullshit from the Libs isn’t one they’ve reserved exclusively for coal and climate.

    And as for bipartisanship – gagf! Everything the Libs touch turns to shit, because that’s how they want it. The only solution is to beat them. Rudd made a critical error by trying to play nice with those scumbags. What is needed is root and branch removal of every last scum sucking Liberal toady wherever it is possible to find them and eliminate them. All the maggots that have assisted the Libs wreck the joint need to be made to pay. The Minerals Council, the BCA, the IPA, Murdoch, the lot of em should never get their foot in the door with a Labor Government. Simply sideline them and whenever they get uppity make it perfectly clear that they are the filth that brought us the Abbott/Turnbull disaster and they want to bring it back again.

    Labor simply has no choice but to make sure the Right understand that the price of their destruction will be sheeted home to them, or else they’ll simply lick their wounds for a while and come back even more dishonest and disgraceful than before.

  31. srpeatling: Last week Ross Cameron called us the “Sydney Morning Homosexual”. Today the PM calls us “the left generally”.

  33. Nationals not happy. Well, we knew that.

    Samantha Maiden ‏@samanthamaiden · 2m2 minutes ago

    This is juicy. Barnaby is now way out on front on condemning WA one nation deal. Tougher than PM presser on now

  34. ‘ Rudd made a critical error by trying to play nice with those scumbags.’

    It was his biggest and most annoying mistake among a few.

  35. Adrian

    It was a mistake. However a reasonable one. Given the Senate makeup even an unavoidable one. As proven without LNP the numbers were not there for action on climate change in Rudd’s time.

    That only changed after the election delivered numbers to Gillard.

  36. Katharine Murphy ‏@murpharoo · 5m5 minutes ago

    If this is not an issue about renewables good or bad (to quote the prime minister) – why constantly bag renewables? #auspol

    Also, on Turnbull’s alternate facts:

    Susan Templeman ‏@stemplemanmp · 5m5 minutes ago

    Staggered to hear PM claim he’d never blamed renewables for SA power probs. I’ve sat opposite & watched the words come out of his mouth.

    Liberal policy: Tell lies with conviction and a straight face. You fans will always believe you.

  37. srpeatling: Last week Ross Cameron called us the “Sydney Morning Homosexual”. Today the PM calls us “the left generally”.

    Turnbull really is talking only to the base these days. What an un prime ministerial thing to say.

  38. Adrian

    ‘ Rudd made a critical error by trying to play nice with those scumbags.’

    It was his biggest and most annoying mistake among a few.

    In his defence there was a lot of calls to reduce the partisanship and divisiveness of the Howard years much the same in the US after Dubya. Unfortunately both Obama and Rudd’s efforts were thrown back in their faces . They discovered venomous snakes just gotta do what venomous snakes do .

    Hopefully Dems and Lab have learnt that next time reach for a shovel not an olive branch.

  39. Obviously Frydenberg didn’t get the message that “it wasn’t the wind”, because the speed of NBN from Harbourside to Melbourne is too slow.

  40. Lets be crystal clear.

    The LNP became a party of science and reality denial when Minchin rolled the moderates. Since then we have had a decade of crisis in energy and climate policy because that major party chose denial over reality.

    I doubt the party will survive long term as a result.

    This is not the fault of Labor or the Greens. Dealign with Rudd was the last chance of sane policy the LNP had. They chose to abandon it. Their chickens are coming home to roost.

  42. Coles might think they have a shoplifting problem, but really they have a customer relations problem: they are cutting customer service in the pursuit of profits and customers are pushing back.

    No wonder many shoppers view the supermarket giants as faceless food factories that it’s OK to rip off: they’ve made themselves faceless by taking away the faces at the checkouts. Research undertaken at the Australian National University found that up to one-third of shoppers give themselves a “discount” when scanning their own goods – the “carrot discount”, where customers scan an expensive item such as cherries as a cheap root vegetable. Coles has even called in the NSW Police, who in October said they will charge people for theft over “discount” amounts as small as $2.

    This is not a defence of theft, nor an incitement to steal. But Coles might want to take a lesson from public transport in Melbourne. We didn’t have much of a problem with fare evasion when conductors sold tickets on trams. Once scratch tickets and then Myki came in and conductors went out (nothing more than a cost-cutting and union-busting exercise by transport managers), fare evasion took off.

    PTV now deploys goon squads of inspectors to heavy fare evaders, creating an adversarial relationship with customers: Very Bad Business Practice.

    Coles, by calling in the cops, might be headed down the same path, treating their customers like potential criminals and creating a similarly dysfunctional relationship.

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/its-no-wonder-we-view-coles-as-a-faceless-food-factory-that-its-ok-to-rip-off-20170210-gua6dz.html

  43. political_alert: Independent @WilkieMP has introduced Social Security Legislation Amendment (Fair Debt Recovery) Bill 2017 parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/searc… #auspol

  44. Turnball is flat out lying and then blaming others when he get’s called out – unbelievable.

    The energy debate has not moved on since the Abbott – ‘great big tax’ rubbish with Carbon Pricing.

    The media need to take some responsibility for their lack of any analysis – the headlines should be about lack of infrastructure and investment and ridiculous amount of tax payers money going to one out of date industry coal (and it is not ‘clean’)

    Turnball has been the biggest disappointment I can remember in politics – naively I believed he might be able to pull of being a full on economic dry but be sensible with some social policy (same sex marriage etc), but he has lied as much if not more than Abbott which is saying something. When he was elected I thought that the coalition may hold power for a long time …..believe I was wrong.

    Apparently everything is the Lefts fault!

    How long does it take in office before a government can actually start governing???

  46. In this instance, the CFMEU has too narrow a focus.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/as-victoria-weighs-forestrys-future-report-says-national-park-could-be-jobs-boon-20170210-guamtm.html

    Labor was on the cusp of announcing it would back a new park before the 2014 election, but the plan was dumped just days before the poll after the CFMEU threatened to run a campaign against it, warning jobs were at risks at Australian Paper, a major employer in the Latrobe Valley.

  47. This is old news, but it was news to me. Adani, who are trying to get a huge coal mine up and running in Qld have a foot in both camps:

    http://www.ecowatch.com/india-solar-market-2118202661.html

    World’s Largest Solar Farm Leapfrogs India to Third in Utility-Scale Solar
    Lorraine Chow
    Dec. 02, 2016 01:30PM EST

    The Kamuthi solar plant in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu has vastly expanded the country’s solar capacity. Based on Wiki-Solar’s calculations, thanks to the new plant, India now claims the number three spot in terms of utility-scale solar, behind China and the U.S.

    World’s largest single location power project was commissioned by Adani Group in the town of Kamuthi in Tamil Nadu.
    Adani Group

    The 648-megawatt Kamuthi plant went online this September and is considered the world’s largest solar project in a single location. For comparison, the world’s second largest solar plant, the Topaz Solar Farm in California, has a capacity of 550 megawatts.

    Not only that, they have a solar plant on the drawing board in Qld:

    Adani confirms plans to build up to 200MW solar farm in Qld

    By Sophie Vorrath on 21 November 2016
    Print Friendly
    Indian energy giant Adani Group – the company behind controversial plans to develop Australia’s largest coal mine in Queensland’s Galilee Basin – has firmed up its solar plans for the Sunshine State, with the announcement it is going ahead with a 100-200MW solar plant south-west of Moranbah in the Bowen Basin.

    Adani’s interest in large scale solar in Australia was first revealed by RenewEconomy last year, and the company officially flagged its plans to build up to 250MW of solar capacity in Queensland in May, as part of its emerging Australian renewables portfolio that would also include two solar farms in South Australia totaling 400MW.

    It now seems that Adani is interested in building 1500MW of renewable energy projects in Australia, as part of a plan to become the biggest provider of renewable power in the country, a title it is also pursuing in India.

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/adani-confirms-plans-build-200mw-solar-farm-qld-91583/

  50. Liberal policy: Tell lies with conviction and a straight face. You fans will always believe you. And Murdoch media will always support you and other mainstream media will repeat your lies unchallenged.

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