Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

In the first Newspoll of the year, surging support for One Nation drains four points from the Coalition and widens its deficit on two-party preferred.

The first Newspoll of the year, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor with a lead of 54-46, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (down four), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 10% (steady) – and, impliedly, One Nation rather a lot. Notwithstanding his newly elevated international profile, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are all but unchanged, with approval up one to 33% and disapproval down one to 54%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 42-30, little different from the 41-32 result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1734. Hat tip to the always reliable James J.

UPDATE: One Nation is said to be on 8%, and from what I can gather, this is related in The Australian’s report and not in the tables. This is important, because it suggests that Newspoll’s opening question continues to limit response options to the major parties, the Greens and others, with those opting for the latter prompted to be more specific. This would, if anything, tend to result in their support being underestimated. By contrast, the Western Australian state poll published on Friday included One Nation up front.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,410 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. The Coalition has actually gone backwards (very slightly, naturally) on the weekly Essential numbers. They had a particularly bad result two weeks ago that has now washed out of the fortnightly total.

  2. adrian @ #1244 Tuesday, February 7, 2017 at 5:15 pm

    As time passes and the current mob become more and more dysfunctional, Gillard’s term shines ever brighter.
    And the scumbags of the media, who aided and abetted her vilification and denigration are revealed as the hypocrites and liars that they are.

    The media merely fed off Rudds treachery.

  16. Oh, Kay Jay,

    I hope they didn’t shoot the dawg at the end of that sang.

    BTW, you had mail the other day. I hope your connection’s up to scratch.

  19. This may not work but Pauline Pantsdown pays a moving tribute to his mum and my family friend

    Pauline Pantsdown ‏@PPantsdown
    RIP my mum Margaret Hunt 1.10.34 – 6.2.17, who pushed her own quiet revolutions

    http://bit.ly/RIP

  24. Well,
    Turnbull has had a splendid start to the year. Somehow I find it difficult to believe that he loves his job as much as he said he did at the cricket.
    There must be a time about 5 seconds after he wakes up when he thinks “What the hell have I got myself into?”.

  25. Citizen / Poroti / GG

    I thought Tony Maher slipping ‘native vegetation’ in among a list of things like the Defence Force, surbia, etc as ‘incurring’ was a bit strange.

    Bloody sneaky Eucalypts and Kangaroo Grass are taking the joint over!

  27. [CTar1
    Tuesday, February 7, 2017 at 6:27 pm
    Citizen / Poroti / GG
    I thought Tony Maher slipping ‘native vegetation’ in among a list of things like the Defence Force, surbia, etc as ‘incurring’ was a bit strange.
    Bloody sneaky Eucalypts and Kangaroo Grass are taking the joint over!]

    Sounds like an ISIS inspired terrorist invasion. Time to employ the full resources of the border force.

  28. Monica

    There must be something about having POWER that it overwhelms good sense. Not to mention the aphrodisiac qualities of being able to be VERY vindictive.

    If I was worth $200 million, give & take $2m, then I’d think, fuck it; can’t be bothered with this shit. Too, too, too many problems. I’m outa here. Let’s relax on the Caymans, for chrissake, on our fabulous yacht darling.

    But, NO, the giddy high is too much, too too much, to give up. Until HUMILIATION sets in.

    That train ride video, where the commuters ignored Turnbull, and Turnbull in turn ignored his wife, would have been enough for me to shelve it, but NO, we have to watch the interminable decline of Malc.

    I’

    But, no, the EGO seems to get in the way.

  33. Kezza2,
    I think what you say about having power is true in relation to it having real allure and Turnbull has certainly demonstrated a capacity for vindictiveness.
    The thing is though, it’s been repeatedly shown how limited his power is, say in the phone call with Trump and that he cannot do anything other than what the right of his party wants and that he cannot lead the party, e.g., Bernardi’s defection, failed resets.
    You might think it would get under his skin, up his nose, but he smugly sails on, seemingly oblivious to reality, or he’s conflicted.
    Personally, I think he couldn’t bear the ignominy of standing aside, even if he could bugger off to the Caymans, and personally I can’t wait for the total humiliation of him being defeated at the next election.
    The sooking we saw at the last election will be nothing in comparison.

  35. kezza

    I read a piece a while back that said that people with a lot of money want things they can’t buy – and respect is a biggie.

  36. Instead of stepping down Turnbull may decide on a “kamikaze” run pushing some muy “progressive” reform. That way when he is inevitably cut down by the party he can look the martyr and have that as a final memory for his public life. All his fanbois+gals could once more convince themselves Mal was Magnificent, thwarted only by his treacherous colleagues . Such an end would make for a much better atmosphere at all those “canape” events he will attend post PM .Sympathy all round.

  37. Bawa Singh Jagdev, the secretary of the National Sikh Council of Australia, also suggested same-sex couples call their relationships “homo unions” in a submission to an Australian Senate inquiry.

    “What the proponents of the bill are proposing and supporting is against the law of nature,” he said.

    “God created humans on this planet to propagate the human race and not to destroy it. This bill will destroy the whole human race.”

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/lanesainty/homo-union?utm_term=.vfjXGBndMW#.hjkv0k5j7m

    It’s been a day for fckwittery: Cory raging against the machine only to up stumps and create his own machine. People in Townsville driven to pray for rain at dams because god was withholding rain in the hopes they’d not forget him, and well…get out there and pray. And now this.

  39. High Court to sit on Robert Hughes (Hey Dad!) case tomorrow.

    At issue is the extent to which a court can receive evidence from persons who allege acts were perpetrated by the accused similar to those the subject of the charge before the court but for which, in most cases, no charge has been laid.

    Although this is a NSW case, very unusually the Victorian DPP has sought to be involved in the proceedings which is the first matter the HC will need to decide.

    The use of similar fact evidence and joint trials has been closely considered by the Royal Commission into child abuse.

  42. poroti
    The only thing is that Turnbull has shown absolutely no inclination to go the route you’re proposing. He’s proved over and over again he’s in thrall to the right of his party and their funders, spruiking for coal for instance.
    He’s a lawyer who will argue for any brief he’s given.
    Pffft.

  46. I was just thinking about the next gathering a the lodge for the libs and came up with this menu suggestion. These are all actual recipes.
    Aperitif
    Obituary cocktail
    Dark and Stormy

    Canapes
    Skewered Dills

    Entree
    Chicken Liver poached in a Lily sauce

    Soup
    Chicken Soup

    Main Course
    Spineless Turkey with a Liver and Lily stuffing covered in Dills

    <Dessert
    Humble pie (made from the humbles of castrated deer)

    Post dinner drinks
    Kamikaze
    The Last word
    Gin Fizz (by special by the Honourable PM)

    All meals provided courtesy of the tax payer and prepared in coal fired ovens.

  47. Cattle, sheep, feral goats, donkeys, horses, camels and rabbits all have one thing in common: they choose what they eat. They do it every time they eat.
    This gives a Darwinian edge to stuff that tastes bad, has nasty prickles, thorns, spines, irritating hairs, provides no nutrition, and/or poisons you.
    Of course there are native ‘incursions’!
    What they are saying is that they have personalized the profits for themselves and could we please socialize the costs and the remedies.
    The Abbott/Turnbull governments have not helped with their cuts to plant and weed research, and weed management and control.
    But most of the plants that are doing ‘incursions’ are imported.
    Apart from weed impacts on production, environmental weeds are running amok out there. Over the next couple of centuries the partnership between global warming, ferals and environmental weeds is going to drive a mass extinction event in Australia.

  50. Bloody sneaky Eucalypts and Kangaroo Grass are taking the joint over!

    Sounds like an ISIS inspired terrorist invasion. Time to employ the full resources of the border force.

    Or we could send KayJay out with his lawnmower.

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