Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

In the first Newspoll of the year, surging support for One Nation drains four points from the Coalition and widens its deficit on two-party preferred.

The first Newspoll of the year, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor with a lead of 54-46, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (down four), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 10% (steady) – and, impliedly, One Nation rather a lot. Notwithstanding his newly elevated international profile, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are all but unchanged, with approval up one to 33% and disapproval down one to 54%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 42-30, little different from the 41-32 result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1734. Hat tip to the always reliable James J.

UPDATE: One Nation is said to be on 8%, and from what I can gather, this is related in The Australian’s report and not in the tables. This is important, because it suggests that Newspoll’s opening question continues to limit response options to the major parties, the Greens and others, with those opting for the latter prompted to be more specific. This would, if anything, tend to result in their support being underestimated. By contrast, the Western Australian state poll published on Friday included One Nation up front.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,410 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. psyclaw Tuesday, February 7, 2017 at 3:06 pm

    Bernadi has occupied 2 Shadow Minister positions.

    I would consider that to be evidence that he has enjoyed promotion.

    And demotion.

  3. Looks like the claws are out all over RWNJ-land today:

    ‘I’m going to hang up’
    1:55PMMITCHELL BINGEMANN
    Controversial commentators Andrew Bolt and Miranda Devine have been involved in a fiery political exchange on live radio.

  4. psyclaw

    ‘I would consider that to be evidence that he has enjoyed promotion.’

    There is no evidence that Bernardi has ever enjoyed anything.

  6. On electricity costs I think there was an article from someone sensible yesterday on the percentage of household expenditure on electricity versus transport fuel costs. I meant to bookmark it.

  8. So the drop of 1 point for ALP in Essential appears t come from a drop in greens numbers as coalition numbers the same.

    Rounding …. the rounding …. 🙁

  10. Today one self-centred loudmouth parted company with a bunch of self-centred loudmouths. And taxpayers have to support these people!

  15. If Bannon can get himself on the NSC without moron trump reading what he signs – makes you wonder above the nuclear codes etc –

    In a seemingly well-sourced, inside account of the first days of the Trump presidency, The New York Times reports: “{Chief strategist Stephen} Bannon remains the president’s dominant adviser, despite Mr Trump’s anger that he was not fully briefed on details of the executive order he signed, giving {Bannon} a seat on the National Security Council, a greater source of frustration to the president than the fallout from the travel ban.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trumps-immigration-woes-raise-new-questions-about-stephen-bannons-role-20170207-gu72js.html

  18. I think there actually is chaos in the Coalition(it’s not just Labor saying it):

    Bevan Shields ‏@BevanShields 35m35 minutes ago
    Where’s the discipline?!?! Coalition MP Warren Entsch is now on TV bagging Malcolm Turnbull’s decision to axe the Gold Pass perk #auspol

  22. Donald Trump and China on dangerous collision course, say experts

    A highly combustible cocktail of Donald Trump’s volatility and Xi Jinping’s increasingly aggressive and autocratic rule threatens to plunge already precarious US-China relations into a dangerous new era, some of the world’s leading China specialists say in a new report.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/07/donald-trump-and-china-military-confrontation-dangerous-collision-course-experts

  23. C@Tmomma

    I think there actually is chaos in the Coalition

    With everything they touch turning to merde they should be called the Cloacalition.

  28. China is understandably upset that they haven’t been getting any attention with all the noise being made about travel bans, Iran sanctions, golden showers, hostile phone calls, and Putin.

    Don’t worry China. Just take a number and stand in line; Donald Trump will be around to harass your leader(s) and threaten to invade your country as soon as he’s able.

  30. So, Bill Shorten gives the disgraced Chinese lobbyist a promotion under the cover of Bernardi’s defection. Typical.

    Rex, are you purer than the driven snow? Have you never made a mistake that you lived to regret? Then learned from it?

  31. Poroti,
    With everything they touch turning to merde they should be called the Cloacalition.

    Yes. Turnbull does keep laying eggs. 😉

  32. Fess

    “MUST SEE!! (as BK would say). Donald Trump the Joker.”

    Wonderful legacy for Julia Gillard.

    (are we allowed to mention her name without PB’s windbag bagging?)

  33. Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott is the headline act at a Victorian Liberals fundraising dinner, which has been described as a “rallying point” for socially conservative party members in the state.

    Mr Abbott will be the guest of honour at a $65 dollar-a-head Deakin 200 Club and Victorian Business Branch fundraiser next month.

    A special pre-dinner drinks event for 22 people with Mr Abbott, costing $500 a ticket is
    nearly sold out.

    There has been concern in the Victorian branch about a push to recruit socially conservative people to the party.

    Some members fear a lurch too far to the right in Victoria could damage Opposition Leader Matthew Guy’s chance of seizing power from Labor at next year’s poll.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/rallying-point-abbott-to-headline-conservative-liberal-fundraiser-in-melbourne-20170207-gu783k.html

  36. If only a creative type could make up a menu for that Conservative Liberal Dinner, featuring Tony Abbott, similar to the job the Libs did on Julia.

    In the Year of the Cock, they could start right there. 😉

  37. Fess

    Isn’t that Gillard in the corner, holding up the edifice of Vatican, by her own self, exposing the despicable ills perpetrated by all and sundry, via the RC into Child Sexual Abuse, or am I hallucinating?

  41. Links to RWNJs and climate deniers.

    Bernardi has been much more than just an outspoken politician who thinks human-caused climate change is mostly a fraud and that carbon prices are just “a form of socialism”.

    Bernardi has been a funder and an organiser of the opposition to action on climate change in Australia for years.

    When Bernardi launched his Conservative Leadership Foundation (CLF) in 2009, one of the first action items of the groups the CLF helped to establish was to go after policies that put a price on greenhouse gas emissions.

    Bernardi’s inspiration for forming the CLF, at least in part, came from a reported trip to the Leadership Institute in the US a year or two earlier.

    The Leadership Institute trains young people to be conservative activists and “freedom fighters” that will go out into the world to “defeat the radical left.”

    …Australia’s richest woman, the mining magnate Gina Rinehart, is also reportedly backing Bernardi and joined him in meetings in New York in late 2016 with key figures from the Donald Trump camp.

    Rinehart has previously supported speaking tours by Lord Christopher Monckton, the British climate science denier once described as a “vaudeville artist” by a former version of Malcolm Turnbull (the one that claimed to care deeply about climate change).

    Monckton helped to launch minor party Rise Up Australia, fronted by young Earth creationist pastor Daniel Nalliah.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2017/feb/07/how-cory-bernardi-was-inspired-to-push-climate-denial-from-us-conservative-groups?CMP=soc_568

  44. As time passes and the current mob become more and more dysfunctional, Gillard’s term shines ever brighter.
    And the scumbags of the media, who aided and abetted her vilification and denigration are revealed as the hypocrites and liars that they are.

  45. An inquiry into the government’s controversial Centrelink automated debt recovery system is expected to be approved by the Senate tomorrow, after Labor and the Greens pledged to support it.

    The inquiry will focus on the error rates of debt notices made after July 1, 2015, and the steps Centrelink staff took to identify and remedy errors.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/aliceworkman/there-will-be-a-senate-inquiry-into-the-centrelink-not-my-de?utm_term=.gjjKdbAgl0#.lgXkwOA7WZ

  48. Adrian:

    So very true. And Gillard led a minority govt no less! This mob have a wafer thin majority, but a majority nonetheless and STILL can’t get it together to govern functionally.

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