First, Crikey has a seasonal offering this week of 25% off for gift subscriptions. If you’re a subscriber already, you can get $33 off a renewal (and also enjoy my piece today on Rod Culleton’s resignation from One Nation).
Second, I forgot to post the latest BludgerTrack update at the close of business last night, mostly because the result wasn’t very interesting, with only the usual Essential Research to add to the dataset. Labor gains 0.2% on two-party preferred, together with projected seats in Victoria and Queensland. Essential also included its monthly leadership ratings, causing a very slight improvement in both leaders’ net approval ratings. Essential will have one result for the year tomorrow, which will presumably be a wrap for all federal polling in 2016. However, The Australian should have Newspoll’s quarterly state and demographic breakdowns, along with scattered state results.
Essential federal poll, last one for the year.
TPP: ALP 53 (0) L/NP 47 (0)
Primary: L/NP 37(0) ALP 37(0) GRN 10(+1) NXT 3(0) ON 8(+1) OTH 6(0)
http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Essential-Report_161220.pdf
ANU 2016 election report
http://www.australianelectionstudy.org/
Moir
I see the Libs are on 34 and the Nats 2 (= 37?), Pauline’s mob up to 8. I can’t remember Nats on 2 before. PHON doing damage to Barnaby, or has he stuffed himself up?
Sohar – I never question the rounding & primaries on Essential. They’re not meant to add up. For example LIB 34.3 (rounds to 34) + NAT 2.4 (rounds to 2) equals 36.7 (rounds to 37). I made those figures up, but it happen all the time when you try to present rounded figures for separate bits of percentages.
One Nation candidate withdraws, slamming Pauline Hanson’s party
Less than two days after being unveiled as one of the 36 candidates Ms Hanson hopes can guide One Nation to victory, Mr Semple withdrew from the party as the candidate for the seat of Currumbin.
It’s reported Mr Semple had been asked to delete a tweet from his personal account by One Nation hierarchy and refused.
Mr Semple’s Twitter feed includes comments about burqas being banned, describing vegans as “miserable people” and that women with unshaven armpits are “not cool at all”.
Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/12/20/09/37/hanson-gold-coast-candidate-withdraws#FshV42x8EKBs7PLK.99
Although not as short as Mal Maninga’s political career, the Currumbin One Nation Party candidate has quit the party less than 2 days after being unveiled as a Queensland state candidate. Seems his tweets were even too much for ON. The ON vetting process doesn’t look to be much improved either, how many more will fall before the election ?
PR, beat me to it, shouldn’t get the mail mid post…
Thanks, Leroy. It wasn’t the rounding I was focusing on, but rather the opposite directions that the Nats and PHON are heading in.
And the withdrawal comes the day after Hanson herself said she was confident there were no problems with any of those 36 candidates.
Essential polling bodes very bad for Turnbull. Not so much because of voting intention, but mostly because of responses related to economy and issues.
He is a happy camper………
Paul Krugman
Paul Krugman – Verified account @paulkrugman
So it’s official, and it’s vile: the loser of the popular vote installed by Russian intervention, a rogue FBI, and epic media malfunction.
5:35 PM – 19 Dec 2016
2,125 RETWEETS3,598 LIKES
oakeshott country @ #91 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 10:58 am
I fail to see much difference. Are you saying that you used to get a one pound gold sovereign for every pound note you submitted?
But should you wish to change your money into gold at its present value, less commission, there are a number of establishments who would help you make that transaction.
victoria Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 1:47 pm
He is a happy camper………
Paul Krugman
So it’s official, and it’s vile: the loser of the popular vote installed by Russian intervention, a rogue FBI, and epic media malfunction.
*******************************************************
Trumped by Putin: Hillary Clinton lost for many reasons, but Russia’s involvement was the most disturbing
Donald Trump will officially be inaugurated as president of the United States on Jan. 20, in no small part because of the direct intervention in and manipulation of the American electoral process by Vladimir Putin, Russia’s strongman who rose to power as a ruthless agent of the KGB, the former Soviet Union’s secret police.
Why did he do this? For one thing, according to Michael McFaul, the former American ambassador to Russia, Putin has a thing about Hillary Clinton. “He has had a vendetta against Hillary Clinton …….But more important, McFaul continued, “He wants to discredit American democracy and make us weaker in terms of leading the liberal democratic order. And most certainly he likes President-elect Trump’s views on Russia.”
http://www.salon.com/2016/12/20/trumped-by-putin-hillary-clinton-lost-for-many-reasons-but-russias-involvement-was-the-most-disturbing_partner/
Don
The amount of currency issued was limited by the Governments gold holdings.
oakeshott country @ #99 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 11:59 am
Indeed. I lasted just twelve months after retirement, had/have a good super, went to Europe on a great trip…..
But after a while mowing the lawn whenever you feel like it, and doing other chores around the place that her inside thinks up for your delectation loses its lustre.
I now work part time, and love it. Best of both worlds.
The Australian Government does not back its currency with reserves of gold or another currency. Has not done so since 1983.
The Weimar Republic and the Confederate States faced massive, crisis-level production problems that are not applicable to Australia in 2016.
Fiat currencies work just fine. My point is that most people, including you, don’t understand how they work. It is complete nonsense to claim that a currency-issuer could involuntarily default on a commitment in its own currency. The AAA credit rating means nothing for the Australian Government’s capacity to spend Australian dollars.
Hustler-in-chief: 5 reasons why I doubt Donald Trump will complete his first term
Donald Trump is the kind of guy who loves the hunt and kill, not 4 years serving the people of the United States
1. The presidency is about helping people.
Donald Trump is clearly a narcissist.
2. The money is funny.
U.S. presidents make only $400,000 a year, a paltry salary by Trump standards that he has already decided to waive. He probably spends that much on hair gel and plugs every year.
3. There’s not enough gold in the White House.
Hustlers who have mastered the art of hustling develop an arrogance. Trump is already acting like he’s too good to live in the White House. (I wonder if it’s because a black family is moving out?)
4. He can’t put his name on this office building.
I can’t imagine him walking away from his real legacy — and never getting a shot at becoming a serious billionaire like Warren Buffett and Michael Bloomberg. Hustlers like to be at the top, and he’s not there yet.
5. Too much light is bad for business.
Hustlers don’t do well in well-lit areas. They need to move in the dark because they are magnets for scandal. I give Trump credit for ducking, diving, dodging and sometimes running straight over every potential obstacle and scandal as a candidate. But being president is a whole different ball game
http://www.salon.com/2016/12/06/hustler-in-chief-5-reasons-why-i-doubt-donald-trump-will-complete-his-first-term/
Isn’t it funny how Professor Garnaut’s recommendations align with just about every non-partisan economic adviser out there. Yet the Government seems deaf to the advice.
ctar1 @ #114 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 1:58 pm
So, a futile exercise then.
In the context of monetary arrangements, “backing” a currency means making a promise that any bearer of that currency can convert it into the other currency ( or precious metal) at a fixed exchange rate whenever they want. This requires the currency issuer to maintain sufficient reserves of the other currency ( or precious metal), which creates a financial constraint on the government’s spending. The Australian Government stopped promising to convert the AUD on demand at fixed exchange rate in 1983. Australia has a non- convertible currency that floats on international currency markets. This creates a lot of fiscal policy space for the government. For ideological reasons it has not been using fiscal policy as actively as it could.
No. My view is that the federal government should guarantee a permanent paid job to every person who wants one. This is far more meaningful and fulfilling and socially useful than inflicting involuntarily idleness, mental and physical illness, family break- down, addictions, and highly precarious and exploitative jobs on millions of people.
This assumes he simply won’t set a whole different standard in his tenure compared with previous presidents. His candidacy struck a new low in what was accepted by a presidential candidate, so one can assume it won’t be any different with him in office.
Hi Don
Me too
I completed a PhD in political history in my “retirement” year but then went back to retrain in a different medical specialty (an exhausting effort at age 60). I worked 0.6 in medicine and 0.4 in academia. Unfortunately my meal ticket retired and the academia disappeared but the new specialty is much more interesting than urology. It pays about a quarter of private practice urology but it gives my life a great purpose as I battle surgeons and anaesthetists for the good governance of a public hospital (they call me Darth Vader and ask me how things are on the dark side).
Yes, indeed Australia was on the Gold Standard until 1932. I am not sure when the facility to change notes into sovereigns disappeared but the point was that it is doubtful if anyone ever used it. It was a way for the Commonwealth to show that paper money was legitimate. The obvious point is that paper-money has no intrinsic value and only has worth if people believe it to be so. The episodes of hyperinflation that the world has seen were initiated by loss of that believe and a government response of printing more money.
Nicholas thanks for the lesson – don’t know your qualifications or experience so difficult to know whether to take you seriously.
Confessions
Indeed. It was impossible such a clown to become the Repug candidate, it was impossible for such a clown to become president and yet he did both. So I guess we should expect him to carry on trying to set new limits for what a “clown” can or can not do and surprising us with where those boundaries end up being drawn.
Nicholas
Your model of employment had sway in the Warsaw Pact countries, hence the old saying “they pretend to pay us and we pretend to work”. That worked out well in the end.
Work has to be productive and there must be an incentive to do it.
A reminder of how Truffles “Faster Sooner Cheaper” Turnbull’s Fraudband is going.
Poroti:
Plus he’s shown fascist dictatorial tendencies. I don’t imagine he’ll allow anyone to hold him accountable for anything.
The fibs spending 50 billion on subs and 50 billion on big business and then they whinge about deficits and debt.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-receives-brutal-performance-review–less-attractive-than-pm-on-all-fronts-but-one-20161220-gteu19.html
and yet Abbott won pretty well in 2013, so Bill must be in for a good win at the next election then rex…
rex douglas @ #129 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 3:03 pm
Rex, what did Bill do to you to make you so cranky at him all the time? Steal your teddy bear at kindy or something?
vogon poet @ #130 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 3:10 pm
Abbott didn’t ‘win’ the 2013 election. The ALP lost it thanks to Rudd.
Shorten won’t ‘win’ the 2019 election. The Coalition may lose it thanks to Abbott.
Barnaby was on the radio news at lunchtime talking up the demise of PHON. He’s definitely hoping it will happen, if only to save his own job.
Preparing for a Shorten win by declaring it a “loss”, you are consistent
Olbermann: Electoral College ‘changes nothing’ — Trump still ‘illegitimate’ and ‘unfit for the job’
“Our long national nightmare is starting,” said Keith Olbermann in a video released after the Electoral College vote on Monday.
“With the Electoral College presumably failing to do its duty as conceived under the Constitution — we won’t know officially until Jan. 6,” Olbermann said, “Russia’s puppet is now ‘Puppet-elect,’ so this changes everything.”
“No,” he said after a beat. “It changes nothing. These facts are the building blocks of resistance. He is still elected by a minority vote. He is still wholly unfit for the job, the man you would expect to find if you were searching for the person who could most quickly and efficiently destroy a democracy and maybe a planet.”
“He is still a moving, breathing conflict of interest who will likely be guilty of the impeachable high crimes and misdemeanors within hours if not minutes of his own inauguration,” Olbermann continued. “He is still a textbook case corrupt self-dealing come to life. He is still the leader of the most remarkable group of public ‘serve yourself’ servants ever assembled and most importantly, Trump is still, at best, the local distributor for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.”
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/12/olbermann-electoral-college-changes-nothing-trump-still-illegitimate-and-unfit-for-the-job/
Don
Out side of here Shorten is not liked by anyone much.
All my ALP friends don’t like him at all
A complete distraction here but too good to miss. At least it gets us away from mad Rex for a while.
I heard this story on the radio while lying around in a hospital yesterday afternoon waiting to be seen.
Show any kids in your life, they will love the story, photos and video.
don @ #131 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 3:15 pm
It certainly is a brutal assessment which the ALP should be very concerned about.
Unlike Abbott and Turnbull, Shorten will not shrink into the roll. He’s got policies, he’s got authority within the party, he’s got a team of good communicators and he has unity.
MTBW, my Labor friends appreciate him.
Would they be ex-Terrigals?
Prof Garnaut is right….again.
Outside Left
They are entitled to if they like him.
N @ 2.01
Nobody has claimed the Australian Government is a default risk. This is a red herring.
You don’t have to “like” a leader. That’s childish.
mtbw @ #143 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 4:02 pm
In person, Bill is a charming and likeable guy.
Any objections to him seem to arise from his union and factional activities and background.
Lizzie
I will go and stand in the corner if you like!
MTBW
That was a general comment, not directed at you. We all know your prejudices.
Lizzie
And we all know yours!
This shouldn’t matter. As Turnbull demonstrates, the leader of the party has basically zero extra power anyways.
Perhaps reasonable people should worry less about who they most want to have as a figurehead, and more about which party is less likely to screw them over, mismanage the environment, and give corporate entities a blank check to do whatever they happen to feel like.