BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

The second last BludgerTrack reading of the year records very slight movement to Labor, and marginal improvement for both leaders on net approval.

First, Crikey has a seasonal offering this week of 25% off for gift subscriptions. If you’re a subscriber already, you can get $33 off a renewal (and also enjoy my piece today on Rod Culleton’s resignation from One Nation).

Second, I forgot to post the latest BludgerTrack update at the close of business last night, mostly because the result wasn’t very interesting, with only the usual Essential Research to add to the dataset. Labor gains 0.2% on two-party preferred, together with projected seats in Victoria and Queensland. Essential also included its monthly leadership ratings, causing a very slight improvement in both leaders’ net approval ratings. Essential will have one result for the year tomorrow, which will presumably be a wrap for all federal polling in 2016. However, The Australian should have Newspoll’s quarterly state and demographic breakdowns, along with scattered state results.

bt2019-2016-12-14

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

235 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 5
1 … 3 4 5

  4. Whatever he’s electoral strengths, Shorten is gunna be a great Australian Prime Minister. He’ll have the govt functioning like a swiss watch. Drives me nuts when people say they want charisma. I just want competence.

  5. lizzie @ #153 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 4:30 pm

    Are these really the sort of people we want in Parliament, on a large salary with the ability to change our lives?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/20/one-nation-candidate-quits-two-days-inappropriate-tweet?CMP=soc_568

    As with the Trump and Brexit phenomenon, people are aghast at the current state of federal parliament and simply looking at change, even if it is fools like PHON.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/20/trump-style-political-disaffection-taking-hold-in-australia-review-says

    The ALP need to install a fresh new leader the people can respect.

  6. rex douglas @ #152 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 4:30 pm

    bemused @ #146 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 4:07 pm

    mtbw @ #143 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 4:02 pm

    Outside Left
    They are entitled to if they like him.

    In person, Bill is a charming and likeable guy.
    Any objections to him seem to arise from his union and factional activities and background.

    I’m sure a lot of people would see his abandonment of Gillard for the treasonous Rudd as a clear sign of self-centred ambition at any cost.

    Yeah, he was forced to eat humble pie after realising just what an utter disaster Gillard was.
    Seeing the ravings of people like you, I sometimes wish we could have let Gillard go to the election as Leader just to see how low she could drive the ALP vote.
    But then we would not have been in a position to make a strong recovery as we have managed to do.

  7. bemused @ #156 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 4:35 pm

    rex douglas @ #152 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 4:30 pm

    bemused @ #146 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 4:07 pm

    mtbw @ #143 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 4:02 pm

    Outside Left
    They are entitled to if they like him.

    In person, Bill is a charming and likeable guy.
    Any objections to him seem to arise from his union and factional activities and background.

    I’m sure a lot of people would see his abandonment of Gillard for the treasonous Rudd as a clear sign of self-centred ambition at any cost.

    Yeah, he was forced to eat humble pie after realising just what an utter disaster Gillard was.
    Seeing the ravings of people like you, I sometimes wish we could have let Gillard go to the election as Leader just to see how low she could drive the ALP vote.
    But then we would not have been in a position to make a strong recovery as we have managed to do.

    antonbruckner11 @ #154 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 4:32 pm

    Whatever he’s electoral strengths, Shorten is gunna be a great Australian Prime Minister. He’ll have the govt functioning like a swiss watch. Drives me nuts when people say they want charisma. I just want competence.

    Charismatic leadership is only one form of leadership.

  8. rex douglas @ #155 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 4:35 pm

    lizzie @ #153 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 4:30 pm

    Are these really the sort of people we want in Parliament, on a large salary with the ability to change our lives?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/20/one-nation-candidate-quits-two-days-inappropriate-tweet?CMP=soc_568

    As with the Trump and Brexit phenomenon, people are aghast at the current state of federal parliament and simply looking at change, even if it is fools like PHON.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/20/trump-style-political-disaffection-taking-hold-in-australia-review-says
    The ALP need to install a fresh new leader the people can respect.

    Still trailing your coat Rex? 😆

  9. bemused @ #156 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 4:35 pm

    rex douglas @ #152 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 4:30 pm

    bemused @ #146 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 4:07 pm

    mtbw @ #143 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 4:02 pm

    Outside Left
    They are entitled to if they like him.

    In person, Bill is a charming and likeable guy.
    Any objections to him seem to arise from his union and factional activities and background.

    I’m sure a lot of people would see his abandonment of Gillard for the treasonous Rudd as a clear sign of self-centred ambition at any cost.

    Yeah, he was forced to eat humble pie after realising just what an utter disaster Gillard was.
    Seeing the ravings of people like you, I sometimes wish we could have let Gillard go to the election as Leader just to see how low she could drive the ALP vote.
    But then we would not have been in a position to make a strong recovery as we have managed to do.

    Of course it was Rudd who drove the ALP vote so low with his treacherous leaking and undermining.
    Rudd deliberately sabotaged his party and essentially installed Abbott as PM.

    But I’m sure the voters haven’t forgotten Shortens self-centred ambitious side-play from that time.

  11. But I’m sure the voters haven’t forgotten Shortens self-centred ambitious side-play from that time.

    Why not?

    Voters seem to forget dodgy things that the Coalition does on pretty much a monthly basis. Why would anyone still care about internal Labor politicking from years ago?

  12. MTBW

    Not that we actually vote for PM, but only 5 months ago, 50% of the nation voted for Labor with Bill Shorten as leader, and as a result he missed out on becoming PM by a whisker.

    And all this from a small base, given the 2013 rout of Labor.

    Like all PMs in waiting, Bill Shorten is not top of the pops poll wise as LOTO, but as 2013-2016 showed he is a very solid leader who has instilled discipline and teamwork in Labor.

    There has not been any real and substantial internal squabble or leadership criticism since he was elected leader, save for MSM beat ups. And the only “crises” have been one or two individual events of “shoot self in foot” like Dastyari.

    I think your view that many outside of PB agree with you and silly Rex is way off target.

    You are both well known and well practised axe grinders of anti Shorten persuasion, and because of this bee in your respective bonnets, your opinions are far from objective, and are as a result quite inaccurate.

    I think you’ll both be still singing the same tune even when Shorten is elected PM for the second time in 2022.

  13. A Melbourne doctor who has given scores of sick people a lethal drug has won a fight against the medical board, with a tribunal ruling his practise is consistent with other forms of palliative care.

    In an extraordinary decision that could set a precedent for other doctors wanting to help patients die, the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal has ruled Dr Rodney Syme does not pose a risk to the public, even though he has given about 170 people a drug that they used to end their own lives.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/doctor-who-prescribes-lethal-drugs-to-dying-patients-not-risk-to-public-20161220-gtf2q3

  14. Outside Left
    I suspect you are thinking of Troglodytes my understanding is that they are now thankfully extinct. As for Terrigals the last known specimen, noelenius hayus , is still roaming free in Woolongong

  17. The decision is not as revolutionary as the Age, once owned by Symes family would have you think.
    But Dr Syme challenged this in VCAT last month, arguing that his provision of Nembutal to people with intolerable suffering was not done with the primary intention of ending their life, but rather to relieve suffering and to give people control over their death. This is well within current palliative care standards but does raise the question of the aim of the current Victorian legislative change.

  19. Höppl said that tourists, and the money they bring to the area, were welcome, but locals were sick of replacing the Fucking signs.

    will this get moderated?

  24. Noreen’s gone the way of the dinosaurs. Jo Gash is in a similar situation having been voted out as Shoalhaven Mayor , still considers herself a king maker but her influence is on the wane, same as Noreens. Good riddance to both of them.

  25. This year’s Summer Solstice is tomorrow Wednesday December 21st at 10:44 GMT (Universal time), i.e 9:44PM AEDT. After tomorrow, days will start getting shorter, impercebilbly at first but noticeable by Febuary.

    If you’re planning to sacrifice a goat to the Sun God, time to get your goat ready.

  31. Would sacrificing a cockroach do? might be more practical, but maybe the relevant diety wants something bigger.

    I suppose the Government has more trash to put out. It will be interesting to see what gets put out this week before everything goes into recess.

  32. This year’s Summer Solstice is tomorrow Wednesday December 21st at 10:44 GMT (Universal time), i.e 9:44PM AEDT. After tomorrow, days will start getting shorter,

    God how depressing. We didn’t get to have a spring and summer is taking forever to kick in. Before we know it we’ll be back to winter!

  33. Has this been mentioned previously? Some good news.

    Govt drops plans to sell off ASIC database

    The Australian government has bowed to public pressure and announced it would drop its plans to sell off the ASIC corporate database.
    The government was put under pressure by journalists and the activist organisation GetUp. A public petition was also launched to garner support for keeping the database.

    Daney Faddoul, economic fairness campaigner at GetUp, welcomed the backdown, but warned that the government had to go further and make ASIC’s data free if it was serious about exposing shady corporate behaviour.

    Accessing just one set of company records costs $38, among the highest access fees in the world.

    “Journalists, academics, and the public at large opposed this sale. The database is used to hold dodgy corporates to account and ensure that companies are paying their fair share of tax,” said Faddoul.
    “Business filings to ASIC shouldn’t be behind closed doors. We all benefit when corporations are held to the highest level of scrutiny.

    “A total of 80,306 GetUp members signed a petition calling out the Turnbull government for their harebrained scheme to sell it off, 84 journalists from across print and electronic media wrote an open letter to Malcolm Turnbull, and workers from the ASIC database warned of the devastating impact a sale would have on corporate scrutiny.”

    ASIC workers had also joined the protest in order to defend local jobs.

    Faddoul said: “The hundreds of people working at the ASIC corporate database in the struggling La Trobe valley now know that their jobs are safe and so is the data that is integral to investigating corporate affairs.
    —
    http://www.itwire.com/government-tech-policy/76265-govt-drops-plans-to-sell-off-asic-database.html

  34. Thank Howard for this mess:

    The Sydney Airport Group, which currently owns Sydney’s Kingsford Smith Airport, is now looking at whether to exercise its option to develop and operate the new Badgerys Creek Airport.

    Some questions are being raised by business, community and regulatory groups about the organisation’s current practices and how they could affect future users if it does become the new operator.

    The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission chairman Rod Sims said Sydney Airport was sold in 2002 without any restrictions on what it could charge users of the airport.

    The Howard government received $5.6 billion for that sale.

    Mr Sims said the conditions of sale back then had amounted to carte blanche for the company over what it charges users.

    “Sydney Airport has turned out to be a bumper investment.

    “It has the highest profit margins on aeronautical services, very high profit margins on car parking.

    “But on the other hand it has not invested as much as other airports, and it has consistently had the lowest ratings on the quality of service.” Mr Sims said.

    “I think the taking off of any regulation on the airport charges was an attempt by the then government to maximise the proceeds from sale, with I think insufficient regard to what the company buying the airport would then do.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-20/questions-raised-about-potential-badgerys-creek-operators/8135406

  36. The Federal Government is unlikely to recoup $2.2 billion paid to shonky vocational training providers, according to a new report from the National Audit Office.

    The money was loaned as part of the VET FEE-HELP scheme that will be scrapped at the end of this year.

    Under the scheme, the Department of Education paid tuition fees directly to training institutions, with the loans owing peaking at $2.9 billion in 2015.

    The National Audit Office’s report is damning of how the department managed the scheme.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-20/government-lost-$2.2b-in-loans-to-dodgy-training-providers/8135724

  40. Apparently passing Turnbull’s budget measures is now a moral imperative:

    Turnbull sees budget as ‘moral issue’

    Malcolm Turnbull has issued an emotional challenge to Labor and other MPs to pass his government’s budget measures amid credit ratings agency pessimism about its path to surplus.

    The prime minister says the challenge for incumbent politicians to fix the budget is a moral one, and not to leave it for their children and grandchildren.

    “This moral issue of living within our means is absolutely paramount because we cannot keep on building up this mountain of debt to throw onto the shoulders of those for whom we should care the most,” he told reporters in Adelaide on Tuesday.

    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten accused Mr Turnbull of being all talk and no action.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/ratings-show-plan-is-on-track-morrison/news-story/58a4dee074ea4c934bfa0ad49c5f0a8b

  41. Report: Sydney Airport Has Paid ZERO dollars In Tax Over The Past Ten Years

    Yeah and it’s the passengers who pay all those federal taxes!!

  42. Oakeshott Country
    Do you never rest?
    I recommend a large glass of Cherry Cheer with 3 scoops of ice cream, otherwise known as a Spider. Naturally, you will want 2 pink straws to complete this libation (select your own deity).
    Now settle yourself with good back support. Open your new copy of “Lorna Doon”.
    As the sun sinks slowly in the east (according to latest scientific knowledge) close your eyes and think pleasant thoughts.
    This works for me, I hope it will for you,
    Soon you will hear the sound of ukuleles
    and banjos in the background as the neighbours
    gather singing their old familiar “We’re gonna hang old
    … … ….. from a sour apple tree”.
    Releax now, your eyelids are getting heavy.

    zzxx zz xx Damn, I’m going to sleep.
    My defence for this load of tripe is that it distracts me from a lot other tripe on this blog – and my usual fall back – my amusement.
    I read with much interest your posts (not only yours).
    Do not disenchant me by telling me you don’t like country music.
    I go now for my daily “Saturday Night” shower. 😎 🙂

  43. “{Sydney Airport} has the highest profit margins on aeronautical services, very high profit margins on car parking.

    Even though it’s competing with all the other international Airports in Sydney. Essential infrastructure should be in public hands and certainly not sold off to private monopolies. And what happened to the money raised by the sale? A large part would have went on election-time giveaways.

  45. Thevagovernment wants to attack welfare and services and hand the savings to the big end of town, who hide large chunks of their earningd to avoid paying tax. Where’s the ‘moral imperative’?

  48. I remember a metaphor for ‘trickle down’ that I think another Bludger posted – something like: “feed a prize racehorse the best and distribute what comes out the other end to the punters”.

  49. I suppose this is all the fault of renewable energy. It couldn’t possibly be the fault of budget cuts by the NSW government.

    RAIL commuters are facing massive delays after power issues at Wynyard closed multiple lines.

    Trains came to a standstill on the Harbour Bridge and on the city circle causing huge headaches as people tried to make their way home from work.

    The north shore line, the airport line, inner west line and south lines are all affected after a power failure at Wynyard.

    Repairs are under way.

    http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/commuter-chaos-as-trains-delayed-after-power-issues-at-wynyard/news-story/7e629250aa178dcf4add07f53962dfc9

  50. Steve777

    “John Kenneth Galbraith — ‘If you feed enough oats to the horse, some will pass through to feed the sparrows ” .
    Also known as” Piss on the Poor” theory.

Comments Page 4 of 5
1 … 3 4 5

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *