BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

The second last BludgerTrack reading of the year records very slight movement to Labor, and marginal improvement for both leaders on net approval.

First, Crikey has a seasonal offering this week of 25% off for gift subscriptions. If you’re a subscriber already, you can get $33 off a renewal (and also enjoy my piece today on Rod Culleton’s resignation from One Nation).

Second, I forgot to post the latest BludgerTrack update at the close of business last night, mostly because the result wasn’t very interesting, with only the usual Essential Research to add to the dataset. Labor gains 0.2% on two-party preferred, together with projected seats in Victoria and Queensland. Essential also included its monthly leadership ratings, causing a very slight improvement in both leaders’ net approval ratings. Essential will have one result for the year tomorrow, which will presumably be a wrap for all federal polling in 2016. However, The Australian should have Newspoll’s quarterly state and demographic breakdowns, along with scattered state results.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

235 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 5
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  1. Good point about the stupidity of the Democratic leadership:

    For what does the insistence that “Putin hacked democracy” do? The Podesta emails were, after all, entirely genuine. The Democrats were not the victim of a smear or a fabrication. On the contrary, the Wikileaks data base revealed how party insiders actually conducted themselves. By blaming defeat on the Podesta leaks, liberals are acknowledging that a Clinton victory depended on concealing the truth, that voters gaining accurate information about her campaign was a terrible blow to her chances.

    You could not have planned a strategy more calculated to reinforce and amplify all of Trump’s talking points about liberal duplicity and elitism.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/20/heres-a-forumla-for-bursting-elitist-anti-elitism

  2. Nicholas

    And Trump’s campaign was entirely above board?

    If the Russians had leaked emails from both campaigns, the argument might have some merit.

  3. Funny how big corporations and the men (they nearly all are) who run them insist that everything would be better with the economy if only they didn’t have to pay so much tax (on earnings they can’t hide that is). Surely the ‘trickle down’ theory couldn’t be self-interested bullshit. Same goes for their bleating about cutting ‘red tape’ and the desire for multi-billion corporations to negotiate ‘one on one’ (yeah right) with individual employees.

  4. The Democrats were not the victim of a smear or a fabrication. On the contrary, the Wikileaks data base revealed how party insiders actually conducted themselves.

    I don’t credit any commentary on the hacks that doesn’t acknowledge that if private Trump/Republican e-mails had also been released they’d likely have looked just as bad (if not massively, massively worse) than anything that was revealed in the DNC e-mails.

    The idea that the hack proves that only one side was dirty is patently absurd.

  5. fess

    Because the belief in the ideology is so strong that they manage to convince themselves that it would have worked, except…so this time for sure!

  6. Michael Moore has been a popular citation here by the anti-Clinton faction. Here’s his latests:

    Michael Moore
    34 mins ·
    1. Hello rest of the world! My fellow Americans are asleep right now so I thought we could talk privately and maybe I can explain what happened yesterday.

    2. Hillary Clinton won the election on Nov 8 by 2.8 million votes over Donald Trump. Which is to say, she lost. You are correct, this is not a democracy.

    3. Back in the 1700s, in order to get the slave states to join the USA, the founders gave those states “extra votes”, letting them count their slaves but not let them vote.

    4. So yes, it is ironic that this racist idea called the Electoral College has, 225 years later, ended up benefiting the candidate who spewed racism hate.

    5. Trump is not president until he’s given the oath of office at noon on Jan 20th. So we will continue to fight and hope to find a legal, nonviolent way to stop this madness.

    6. Ok, people are starting to wake up in the US. I wish I could give u better news. As bad as it seems, I’m sorry to tell you, it will be worse. We are a broken country at this point.

  7. Confessions

    Michael Moore has been a popular citation here by the anti-Clinton faction.

    Rather than “the anti Clinton faction” Moore has been quoted because he pointed out where Trump support came from . Sadly the DNC chose not to address that problem.

  8. Moore has been quoted because he pointed out where Trump support came from . Sadly the DNC chose not to address that problem.

    And so millions of Americans voted for their oppressors, the political wing of Big Money.

  9. Crapping on about the popular vote obscures the fact that any Democrat worth their salt would not have lost Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to a candidate as unpopular as Donald Trump.

  10. Steve777

    Turkeys voting for Thanks Giving Day has a fine tradition in the US. Oh and here also. Hence an Abbott and Truffles government “becoming a thing”.

  11. Poroti:

    More Americans wanted and voted for Clinton as POTUS than Trump. Unfortunately the US has an antiquated, out-dated electoral system and that’s why Trump won.

  12. Nicholas

    Crapping on about the popular vote obscures the fact that any Democrat worth their salt would not have lost Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to a candidate as unpopular as Donald Trump.

    I think it is more relevant to note that any progressive worth their salt would have voted for Clinton rather than the idiot Stein.

  13. Credlin on Sky

    Likes
    Tweets
    Bridget O’Flynn
    28m28 minutes ago
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    .@FightingTories Credlin says it’s Senators who are breaking away. I think it’s blackmail…put Bernardi in Ministry or else grenade thrown

    4

    4

    Bridget O’Flynn
    35m35 minutes ago
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    .@ChrisMac1270 Yep. Credlin’s speaking with knowledge. At this stage all senators, led by Bernardi, but they’re talking to lower house MPs.

    2

    1

    Bridget O’Flynn
    39m39 minutes ago
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    Credlin: 2/2 ….growing expectation, level of certainty, there’ll be a split in Feb. There’ll be the creation of an Aust Conservative Party

    9

    5

    Bridget O’Flynn
    41m41 minutes ago
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    Credlin: Some ppl think it’s a foregone conclusion they’re going to lose & are withdrawing their effort. Calls I made today…there’s a
    1/2

  14. nicholas @ #216 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 10:31 pm

    Crapping on about the popular vote obscures the fact that any Democrat worth their salt would not have lost Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to a candidate as unpopular as Donald Trump.

    Obama’s approval rating dropped in the battleground states in the space between 2012 and 2016. Even a hypothetical ‘clean’ candidate would’ve had trouble winning these states.

    It’s Not All About Clinton — The Midwest Was Getting Redder Before 2016

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-not-all-about-clinton-the-midwest-was-getting-redder-before-2016/

  15. It seems to me a lot of people give female politicians a positive handicap that denies any weaknesses or follies. reverse sexism.

    It is a really bad sign of party failure when instead of looking to themselves – campaign strategy, policy positions, message delivery, people start wailing that is was all unfair.

    1. Yes the US electoral college is out of date and barely democratic, but it is the system that they have got, and the Democrat campaign team messed up. Apparently they spent more time chasing one electoral vote in Nebraska than the whole state of Wisconsin. That was not the fault of Putin of the FBI ot even of Trump. The campaign team messed up. One report I read suggested they were too reliant on poll numbers and missed the rural swing.

    2. The primary season is supposed to temper the candidates and get them on message. It was obvious from the primaries that the Sanders type of message was cutting through, but it seems the Democrat campaign paid only lip service to the messages that were being screamed by the rust belt. Moore tried to tell them and it seemed no one was listening.

    3. The Democrat campaign strategy was stoopid. The whole focus on Trump the nasty person was ill-conceived and counterproductive. Now I am on record here and elsewhere that I almost NEVER like ad-hominem campaigns. They almost always backfire. It was obvious that in the last month the “Trump is the devil” campaign was flailing, but it seemed that they had no other rabbit to pull out or Plan B.

    The Democrats should be examining these entrails rather than seeking to blame others.

  16. Millenial

    Quite!

    It is NOT at all all about Clinton. In those rust belt states it is as much Obama they blame or at least “the system” of which he is head. Given how little campaigning they did in Wisconsin it seems clear that they took the state for granted – very unwise

  17. Hi. I haven’t been here for a while. The polls were boringly the same, and politics is just so depressing at present. I’ll leave these thoughts here as a ‘happy new year’ attempt at optimism. I’m interested to hear your thoughts on them.
    1. For all the screaming/agonising over Trump and the rise of the lunar right, I tell myself – “if the democrats had gone with Sanders, the US president elect would be a self declared socialist” – he would have carried Florida and the rust belt states. The US went *this* close to having a socialist president with progressive policies. It’ll happen soon.
    2. I can’t help feeling it was better for Clinton to win the popular vote and lose than to narrowly win the presidency and then get thumped in the mid-terms and then again in 2020 – and she would have – she’s not likeable.
    3. Trump is their Abbott. He has no idea how to deliver on his slogans and is a nutter. it will not end well.
    4. Trump will push a lot of large and progressive Democrat states to the left. California, New York and Massachusetts will lead the way on climate action, health and social policy.
    5. Despite the talk of Trump and fascism, the US constitution, parliamentary system and media are robust and will not allow Trump to abuse his power to suppress opponents. If he tried to his own party will turn on him. Unlike Australia, representatives will cross the floor and moderates and libertarians in the GOP will not support Trump if he tried to curtail freedoms. If they do support him, the supreme court will quash it. The quality media in the US is progressive, influential and so much better than in Australia. Yes Trump will destroy many progressive federal agencies, but there will be a backlash (hopefully before 2020) and he’ll ruin the GOP as a prospect for a decade or more. His rise is the last hurrah of the Tea Party, not the start of something long term. Better policies and agencies will be able to be built from the ashes he leaves behind.
    6. Trump will be a disaster and the mid-terms in 2018 or the 2020 election will result in the GOP losing the house, senate and some govenorships.
    7. The next democratic president (hopefully in 2020) will be the most left wing in living memory.
    8. Turnbull is farked and will not be PM at the next election. If labor are smart they’ll get Plibersek as leader and then Labor will win the next election in a landslide – but they will have to team with the greens to pass legislation in the senate because there will be a one nation led block of loons in the senate. This will be a good thing.
    9. 2017 and 2018 are going to be horrible years for progressive people, but the light at the end of the tunnel will show in 2018/19, and progressive politics is going to ride a massive wave of support in the US and Australia that will leave the main conservative parties in tatters for years to come. The libs will split when they lose power or otherwise become a version of One Nation and this will send a heap of leafy suburb and middle class electorates to labor or the greens.
    10. The over 55s demographic that the LNP depend on is growing and heading left as the over 70s die off. the majority of younger generations do not vote for the LNP. Labor will become the natural party of government and will only lose the a lunar right LNP every decade or so when they fuck up badly. But they will need the greens support in the upper house for most legislation.

    merry festivus to you all. the forces of truth and niceness will win eventually and trump will bring this forward by being his insane self.

  18. SF, I agree with a lot of what you’re saying, but I have a serious problem with #5. You claim that, in the event of a Reichstag Fire-like event, Trump would be unable to cement his grasp on power and trend to Fascism because:
    – Congress;
    – GOP moderates/libertarians; or
    – The SCOTUS
    Will step in and block him. Here’s the problem: Congress is red, and going to get redder in 2018 as a swag of Democrats are up for re-election in the Senate, but very few Republicans are. There aren’t many (possibly any!) GOP moderates or libertarians left in Congress, and the SCOTUS is split 4-4 between a moderate faction and a quasi-Fascist faction as it is…and Trump will get to appoint the 9th Justice.
    The checks and balances are there, but I have little faith that they’ll hold in the event Trump tries to push his luck.

  19. So yes, it is ironic that this racist idea called the Electoral College has, 225 years later, ended up benefiting the candidate who spewed racism hate.

    Hadn’t picked Michael Moore for an Alanis Morissette fan.

  20. A Pakistani asylum-seeker arrested on suspicion of killing 12 people by mowing through a Berlin Christmas market in a truck may not be the attacker, and the real perpetrator could still be on the run, German police said on Tuesday.

    Hats off to the German plods. Most police forces I can think of would have dug in and fitted him up to save face.

  21. Brexit getting even messier!

    Theresa May has suggested MPs will be denied on the final Brexit deal – backtracking on an apparent pledge two months ago.

    Quizzed by a Commons committee, the Prime Minister refused – three times – to guarantee that Parliament will have its say on the outcome of the negotiations.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-suggests-mps-will-be-denied-a-vote-on-the-final-brexit-deal-a7487046.html

  22. I agree with Sustainable Future’s comments at 1:23, but would add the following point.
    It will be more important for progressives to be in power in the 2020’s than now, at the end of the current decade, as we will need to manage major social and economic impacts from technologies which are undergoing exponential growth.
    These include:
    Medical science – which is shifting from a hit and miss research base to an information technology base. This means designer organisms, reprogramming of the human genome, cures for disease and cancer, and major increases in longevity. The issues will include universal access and changes in aging and retirement.
    Robotics and automation – will the increased productivity be redistributed and applied to a whole new range of service and environmental jobs, or will it simply end up in the pockets of big capital?
    Energy transformation – the transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewables will accelerate, primarily driven by the lower costs of solar pv, wind and batteries, but also helped along by policy responses to climate change.
    Climate change – we have the technologies to eliminate emissions, and the “too costly” argument will no longer be available to big capital as an excuse to delay transition. People are seeing through the lies promulgated by the fossil fuel industry, but we can’t leave the policy response to the status quo . We will have more talk of going “carbon negative”. Firstly achieving zero net emissions, and then strategies to start removing excess carbon from the atmosphere.

    We need to see the back of neo liberal economics and reduce the political influence of big capital. The likes of Trump, Abbott, Turnbull are helping to destroy the credibility of the conservative politics which are utterly unsuited to driving innovation in a time of rapid change. Technological disruption will help to shake up big capital.

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